How to bet UFC 213
Reed Kuhn
Special to ESPN.com
7/6/17
The UFC's annual International Fight Week is underway, kicking off a packed month that will see five fight cards and five titles on the line. This weekend's doubleheader of events ends with an interim middleweight title fight, as well as the second defense of Amanda Nunes's women's bantamweight reign.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Guide to UFC 213: Predictions and analysis
Everything you need to know about UFC 213, which takes place Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, headlined by a women's bantamweight championship fight between Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko.
In addition to the championship bouts on the UFC 213 card, we're getting a trilogy fight between two heavyweight legends. There's a lot to like for MMA fans about the biggest night of action during this weekend's festivities in Las Vegas, but we'll have to take a closer look at the key matchups to see if we should also like any of the betting lines.
Heavyweight matchup: No. 3 Alistair Overeem (-130) vs. No. 1 Fabricio Werdum (+110)
Their prior two meetings confirmed their contrasting strengths. Eleven years ago, Werdum submitted Overeem in PRIDE. Five years later, Overeem defeated Werdum by decision in Strikeforce, in a fight that saw the feared grappler Werdum clearly unwilling to stand and trade, while the experienced kickboxer Overeem was unwilling to follow Werdum to the ground. In their third meeting, the matchup will still feature that same striker versus grappler theme.
While standing, Overeem has been hesitant in pace, but he's the most accurate power striker on the UFC roster. Should Werdum move forward, his chin will be the obvious target for Overeem's patient counters. If, however, Werdum succeeds in closing the distance and getting the fight to the mat, he will dominate whatever round it happens in and threaten to finish it via submission.
Insider recommends: The odds here should stay tight, because both men are dangerous, yet vulnerable. That said, we lean toward Overeem for the win for his ability to decide the fight's position, and we'll even lay a little juice on him. However, picking the over/under total presents too much volatility, given that these men have also occasionally played it safe and turned in some slow decisions in recent history, including their last rematch. For closure's sake, we hope one gets a clear finish, but we won't sweat the total.
Interim middleweight title matchup: No. 3 Robert Whittaker (-130) vs. No. 1 Yoel Romero (+110)
While Michael Bisping decides if he'll only take on aging legends, two true contenders will fight for the chance to taste UFC gold in his absence. Each has already gotten past elite competition, but the market is pretty torn on who has the inherent edge against each other. The most glaring difference between the two is a nearly 14-year youth advantage favoring Whittaker, and that could play a key role in the fight.
Stylistically, Romero's background in wrestling has rarely been a factor in the UFC, and Whittaker has shown excellent takedown defense to date. Meanwhile, Whittaker rarely attempts takedowns, and would be unlikely to try against an Olympic-caliber wrestler. Fortunately, each has been confident with their hands. While Romero will have the edge in power, he will be the less durable of the two should Whittaker's accurate punches start landing. Whittaker is also likely to be the more active of the two. If he can stick and move, he just has to accumulate a few scores to tilt the stand-up game in his favor.
Insider recommends: We'll take Whittaker as long as the price stays affordable, in the hopes that he can stay out of danger and use his speed to find a target on Romero's 40-year-old chin. While the total is set at 1.5 rounds, it favors the over at -200. Again, we're in rough agreement with that line, and while either guy could get the violent finish, things could take time to develop. Stick with Whittaker for the win, and look forward to an inevitable and very intriguing title defense against Luke Rockhold down the road.
Women's bantamweight title: Champion Amanda Nunes (-110) vs. No. 1 Valentina Shevchenko (-110)
Shevchenko's striking resume may look better on paper, including outpointing boxer Holly Holm in a five-round decision, but Nunes has managed to use her striking to greater effect. Nunes' hands have set up finishes against two former champions in short order, though her ground game is definitely her more evolved skill base. Both women have solid takedown defense, so we could see a battle between Shevchenko's technical style of Muay Thai versus Nunes's ultra-aggressive and long-range brawling to start off the fight.
Should the fight hit the mat, Nunes will have a big advantage with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu base. Though we might not see it if the two decide to stand in the pocket, Nunes has the backup plan if she gets into trouble and a safe route to a finish should she stun or gain back control against Shevchenko.
Insider recommends: Each fighter's highest profile wins have come against somewhat unidimensional opponents, but Nunes is more of a multithreat finisher with killer instinct. We like Nunes to retain her title one way or the other, and the pick 'em odds make a play here more valuable than in the other two matchups. The total is 2.5 rounds, mildly favoring the over at -135. While no women's bantamweight title fight has ever gone to the judges' scorecards, these two have previously fought to a close decision, again making the total hard to predict. A finish could come in the middle rounds, but if Nunes gasses, the fight could be drawn out.
Weekend parlay: For the parlay hunters out there, consider pairing Tecia Torres over Juliana Lima on The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale card with Anthony Pettis over Jim Miller at UFC 213.
Reed Kuhn
Special to ESPN.com
7/6/17
The UFC's annual International Fight Week is underway, kicking off a packed month that will see five fight cards and five titles on the line. This weekend's doubleheader of events ends with an interim middleweight title fight, as well as the second defense of Amanda Nunes's women's bantamweight reign.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Guide to UFC 213: Predictions and analysis
Everything you need to know about UFC 213, which takes place Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, headlined by a women's bantamweight championship fight between Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko.
In addition to the championship bouts on the UFC 213 card, we're getting a trilogy fight between two heavyweight legends. There's a lot to like for MMA fans about the biggest night of action during this weekend's festivities in Las Vegas, but we'll have to take a closer look at the key matchups to see if we should also like any of the betting lines.
Heavyweight matchup: No. 3 Alistair Overeem (-130) vs. No. 1 Fabricio Werdum (+110)
Their prior two meetings confirmed their contrasting strengths. Eleven years ago, Werdum submitted Overeem in PRIDE. Five years later, Overeem defeated Werdum by decision in Strikeforce, in a fight that saw the feared grappler Werdum clearly unwilling to stand and trade, while the experienced kickboxer Overeem was unwilling to follow Werdum to the ground. In their third meeting, the matchup will still feature that same striker versus grappler theme.
While standing, Overeem has been hesitant in pace, but he's the most accurate power striker on the UFC roster. Should Werdum move forward, his chin will be the obvious target for Overeem's patient counters. If, however, Werdum succeeds in closing the distance and getting the fight to the mat, he will dominate whatever round it happens in and threaten to finish it via submission.
Insider recommends: The odds here should stay tight, because both men are dangerous, yet vulnerable. That said, we lean toward Overeem for the win for his ability to decide the fight's position, and we'll even lay a little juice on him. However, picking the over/under total presents too much volatility, given that these men have also occasionally played it safe and turned in some slow decisions in recent history, including their last rematch. For closure's sake, we hope one gets a clear finish, but we won't sweat the total.
Interim middleweight title matchup: No. 3 Robert Whittaker (-130) vs. No. 1 Yoel Romero (+110)
While Michael Bisping decides if he'll only take on aging legends, two true contenders will fight for the chance to taste UFC gold in his absence. Each has already gotten past elite competition, but the market is pretty torn on who has the inherent edge against each other. The most glaring difference between the two is a nearly 14-year youth advantage favoring Whittaker, and that could play a key role in the fight.
Stylistically, Romero's background in wrestling has rarely been a factor in the UFC, and Whittaker has shown excellent takedown defense to date. Meanwhile, Whittaker rarely attempts takedowns, and would be unlikely to try against an Olympic-caliber wrestler. Fortunately, each has been confident with their hands. While Romero will have the edge in power, he will be the less durable of the two should Whittaker's accurate punches start landing. Whittaker is also likely to be the more active of the two. If he can stick and move, he just has to accumulate a few scores to tilt the stand-up game in his favor.
Insider recommends: We'll take Whittaker as long as the price stays affordable, in the hopes that he can stay out of danger and use his speed to find a target on Romero's 40-year-old chin. While the total is set at 1.5 rounds, it favors the over at -200. Again, we're in rough agreement with that line, and while either guy could get the violent finish, things could take time to develop. Stick with Whittaker for the win, and look forward to an inevitable and very intriguing title defense against Luke Rockhold down the road.
Women's bantamweight title: Champion Amanda Nunes (-110) vs. No. 1 Valentina Shevchenko (-110)
Shevchenko's striking resume may look better on paper, including outpointing boxer Holly Holm in a five-round decision, but Nunes has managed to use her striking to greater effect. Nunes' hands have set up finishes against two former champions in short order, though her ground game is definitely her more evolved skill base. Both women have solid takedown defense, so we could see a battle between Shevchenko's technical style of Muay Thai versus Nunes's ultra-aggressive and long-range brawling to start off the fight.
Should the fight hit the mat, Nunes will have a big advantage with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu base. Though we might not see it if the two decide to stand in the pocket, Nunes has the backup plan if she gets into trouble and a safe route to a finish should she stun or gain back control against Shevchenko.
Insider recommends: Each fighter's highest profile wins have come against somewhat unidimensional opponents, but Nunes is more of a multithreat finisher with killer instinct. We like Nunes to retain her title one way or the other, and the pick 'em odds make a play here more valuable than in the other two matchups. The total is 2.5 rounds, mildly favoring the over at -135. While no women's bantamweight title fight has ever gone to the judges' scorecards, these two have previously fought to a close decision, again making the total hard to predict. A finish could come in the middle rounds, but if Nunes gasses, the fight could be drawn out.
Weekend parlay: For the parlay hunters out there, consider pairing Tecia Torres over Juliana Lima on The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale card with Anthony Pettis over Jim Miller at UFC 213.
