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Thread: AFS CFL.. Saison Trois ..2017

  1. #1 AFS CFL.. Saison Trois ..2017 
    RX Junior
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    The CFL AFS experiment is complete! … On to CFL AFS Saison Trois 2017

    Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?
    Absitively-Posolutely YES…! 16-4 last two years.

    Not very many plays and you’d be correct. This is a statically based process with very tight parameters designed to uncover only the very best of the best plays. As a result there will be several weeks without plays and possibly a week with multiple plays, action junkies need not apply. You are welcome to follow along but this is not for those faint of heart, as I consider every play a true investment opportunity.

    The model is locked and loaded waiting for teams to reach a minimum of three games played. British Columbia has value this week; however, Hamilton hasn’t met the minimum number of games played criteria with only two weeks of data. Regardless, a Lions cover will bring a huge smile to my face.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play ------ British Columbia -3 Pending ---------
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play


    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  2. #2  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Gl Looking forward to your weekly insight
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  3. #3  
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    Was wondering why Edmonton wasn't a play?
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TDH View Post
    Was wondering why Edmonton wasn't a play?
    Edmonton wasn’t a play because the AFS system numbers were providing no value with either team meaning very neutral or no advantage either way. The final score was pretty much the same ……about as close as you can get.
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  5. #5  
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    The Roughrider cover week three and Lions cover last week have given me some assurance in the strength of the early season numbers.
    Heck even the Ottawa / Edmonton no play reply post above shows solid worth in the system to date.

    However, no large investment plays for me yet at least trough the weekend games. This isn’t unexpected with only four games per week. Monday’s game shows value in Ottawa we’ll see if it holds after Ottawa’s stats are recalculated after tonight's game.

    The Stamps show a lot of value this week, but I’m not laying double digits in the CFL so that’s a pass for me. The Eskimos fall in the just missed category vs. Hamilton. So I’ll be tolerant while the model collects more data and wait for a better opportunity.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0, 0 - Unit Basic play ------ Edmonton -3 Pending ---------
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play


    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  6. #6  
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    Thursday’s game was a disappointing push at -3. And unfortunately, after recompiling the data from Ottawa’s first game this week, that previously mentioned possible RedBlacks play has fallen out of favor for the model. Probably a good thing now that the line is moving against Ottawa, and knowing the market correctly crushed the Winnipeg line yesterday.

    A shout out to eyeinthesky “talk about crushing it” ….. Well done!
    Oh well… Since I don’t have that handicapping talent, I’ll just have to be enduring and wait for the numbers to show me the way. At this time last season AFS had but one investment play so even though I’m pissed that I missed those early season dogs and eyeinthesky’s great run I remain optimistic.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  7. #7  
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    Edmonton could actually be bet early on the day of the game at -2.5. See 5dimes, so I took an extra bet at this nice number. Glad I did, so your pick was not really that far off the mark. Keep posting and I like your discipline.
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