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Thread: AFS CFL.. Saison Trois ..2017

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  1. #1 AFS CFL.. Saison Trois ..2017 
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    The CFL AFS experiment is complete! … On to CFL AFS Saison Trois 2017

    Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?
    Absitively-Posolutely YES…! 16-4 last two years.

    Not very many plays and you’d be correct. This is a statically based process with very tight parameters designed to uncover only the very best of the best plays. As a result there will be several weeks without plays and possibly a week with multiple plays, action junkies need not apply. You are welcome to follow along but this is not for those faint of heart, as I consider every play a true investment opportunity.

    The model is locked and loaded waiting for teams to reach a minimum of three games played. British Columbia has value this week; however, Hamilton hasn’t met the minimum number of games played criteria with only two weeks of data. Regardless, a Lions cover will bring a huge smile to my face.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play ------ British Columbia -3 Pending ---------
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play


    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  2. #2  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Gl Looking forward to your weekly insight
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  3. #3  
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    Was wondering why Edmonton wasn't a play?
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TDH View Post
    Was wondering why Edmonton wasn't a play?
    Edmonton wasn’t a play because the AFS system numbers were providing no value with either team meaning very neutral or no advantage either way. The final score was pretty much the same ……about as close as you can get.
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  5. #5  
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    The Roughrider cover week three and Lions cover last week have given me some assurance in the strength of the early season numbers.
    Heck even the Ottawa / Edmonton no play reply post above shows solid worth in the system to date.

    However, no large investment plays for me yet at least trough the weekend games. This isn’t unexpected with only four games per week. Monday’s game shows value in Ottawa we’ll see if it holds after Ottawa’s stats are recalculated after tonight's game.

    The Stamps show a lot of value this week, but I’m not laying double digits in the CFL so that’s a pass for me. The Eskimos fall in the just missed category vs. Hamilton. So I’ll be tolerant while the model collects more data and wait for a better opportunity.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0, 0 - Unit Basic play ------ Edmonton -3 Pending ---------
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play


    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  6. #6  
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    Thursday’s game was a disappointing push at -3. And unfortunately, after recompiling the data from Ottawa’s first game this week, that previously mentioned possible RedBlacks play has fallen out of favor for the model. Probably a good thing now that the line is moving against Ottawa, and knowing the market correctly crushed the Winnipeg line yesterday.

    A shout out to eyeinthesky “talk about crushing it” ….. Well done!
    Oh well… Since I don’t have that handicapping talent, I’ll just have to be enduring and wait for the numbers to show me the way. At this time last season AFS had but one investment play so even though I’m pissed that I missed those early season dogs and eyeinthesky’s great run I remain optimistic.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  7. #7  
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    Edmonton could actually be bet early on the day of the game at -2.5. See 5dimes, so I took an extra bet at this nice number. Glad I did, so your pick was not really that far off the mark. Keep posting and I like your discipline.
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  8. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TDH View Post
    Keep posting and I like your discipline.
    That obedience has been very difficult to contain in the early going. But I know first hand the advantage these AFS numbers afford me and what happens to my earnings when I stray into those ‘gut feelings’ or start thinking too much.

    On to week 6, as you might guess the Stamps show a ton of value again this week, but that stiff line disqualifies it from being a system play. Drum-roll please……… here we are finally, with the first AFS play, the Alouettes +4 a five unit play for me.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play ------ Montreal +4 Pending ---------

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  9. #9  
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    Good luck with your Als play on Thursday!
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  10. #10  
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    Nice call on the Als
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  11. #11  
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    I tailed you and the line went to 3'. Excellent work. Keep up the discipline.
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  12. #12  
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    Wow…….., the Als covered. Although they could have won the game handily but relinquished double digit leads twice, not a sign of a quality team. Going forward I must think twice before using them in a larger 10 or 15 unit investment play? ………...note to self.

    YTD record - AFS team = + 5 Units
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    1-0, 5 - Unit Investment play

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  13. #13  
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    Congrats on the win last night; another great game in the CFL. Hell of a comeback by Winnipeg but tough one to lose (straight up) for the Als.......
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  14. #14  
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    Thanks for the kind words guys, sadly no AFS plays for week 7.

    Although, my graded excel sheet shows plenty of green with ATS covers, only that one last week was worthy of my investment. Positive signs are everywhere adding more confirmation that last years AFS rebuild with the added strength of opponents played has been a positive addition to the system. But still no wagers for me this week, I’ll avidly wait for better opportunities.


    YTD record - AFS team = + 5 Units
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    1-0, 5 - Unit Investment play

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  15. #15  
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    Love the patience team. Wait and pounce!
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  16. #16  
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    Week 8
    I’ve had some computer issues this week. Power loss and a spike or two so I’m taking time to triple check everything before committing myself. But I can say with reasonable certainty that AFS has no interest in the first game this week and the second is still without a line because of Ricky Ray so that will be a pass as well. Saturday’s game however, could be a substantial play but I plan on using the rest of this week to corroborate the numbers. I’ve been nothing but patient thus far so what’s another day or two…..
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  17. #17  
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    Week 8 Update
    I stand corrected we do have a play for tonight. I only wish the numbers were validated early in the week prior to the line shift but Ottawa -2.5 still qualifies and is a 5 unit play. Additionally, Saturday will be a second 5 unit play on Winnipeg -2

    YTD record - AFS team = + 5 Units
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 5 - Unit Investment play ------ Ottawa -2.5 / Winnipeg -2 Pending ---------
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    1-0, 5 - Unit Investment play

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  18. #18  
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    Like your chances with Winnipeg tomorrow night. Dating back to last season, the Bombers have won 9 of their last 12 on the road while the Tiger Cats have lost 7 in a row at home. Moreover, Hamilton has made a number of changes in the last few days, including hiring June Jones to run the offense and releasing their second leading tackler this season. Likely more changes in store after this game; good luck with the play!
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  19. #19  
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    Week 8 Follow-up
    Quote Originally Posted by eyeinthesky View Post
    Like your chances with Winnipeg tomorrow night.
    Thanks for the vote of confidence; the Bombers were a just missed double investment AFS play. I wish I had seen your support prior to game time as I may have increased my wager based on your assessment. Conversely I’ll assume you placed no value in my ORB play Thursday. Unfortunately, I had my doubts simply because it played right into a bad number with the line flipping five points. Although I regret the play now, I’ve learned to stick with the AFS numbers. Because I expect a 70% cover rate over the course of season I don’t subjectively omit plays. But I’ll admit your handicapping style is exactly what I’ve been missing, as noted last year……..
    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    …statistically based models can lead you to plays but what skills are needed to turn a basic play into a cash cow, and how does one find ways to pull back the reins and get off the investment plays when you need to most?
    Sorry to dwell @eyeinthesky; I wish you the best of luck with Lions play. You certainly got the best of the line beating the public again! Although I wish I had followed your plays from the start, my experience tells me not to jump aboard now especially at the current number. Streaks like this have a way of self adjusting at some point. No disrespect, your analysis thus far has been extraordinary and unquestionably your methods are immune to the same ‘regress to the mean’ that my statistical approach must cope with. In a similar position last NFL season AFS started 9-0 only to finish 12-6. My numbers are a strong lean to the Riders on this one but I think the lions are the much better team. I have no skin in this one so “ let it be so 10 and ohhhh”

    YTD record - AFS team = + 4.5 Units
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    1-1, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play
    1-0, 5 - Unit Investment play


    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  20. #20  
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    That "strong lean to the Riders" was right on the money. Glad you didn't jump aboard; best of luck next week!
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  21. #21  
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    I was focused more on your play and streak that I failed to realize the jump in the line to +3.5 qualified the Riders as 2 unit Top play. However, the good news in retrospect is your loss wasn’t due to any bad karma. BC simply didn’t show up, that was pathetic. Maybe more stunning, why didn’t Wally take preventative action and rally the troops with a Vince Lombardi or a ‘one for the gipper‘ type speeches? It appeared he simply handed the team to an assistant and walked away. I’m sure I speak for all followers; we look forward to your bounce back next week.
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  22. #22  
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    Week 9 outlook;
    Assuming these lines stay relatively steady, there won’t be an AFS play this week.
    However, I do see a strong lean to the Stamps at -3.5 or better.
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  23. #23  
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    Week 10
    Plays this year have been few and far between.
    Sadly I missed one of these lower level plays 2 weeks ago. However, this week my line on the Riders and the Argos is significantly different than what the books think so these are both 2 unit plays for me. AFS also has a strong lean toward the RedBlacks this week.

    YTD record - AFS team = + 4.5 Units
    -----------------------
    AFS
    1-0-1, 0 - Unit Basic play
    1-1, 5 - Unit Investment play
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine
    0-0, 0 - Unit Basic play
    0-0, 2 - Unit Top play ----------Saskatchewan +6 / Toronto +10 Pending ---------
    1-0, 5 - Unit Investment play

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
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  24. #24  
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    nice call on the riders hope your right on the RB's
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  25. #25  
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    Congrats on the Riders play, teamfball. Good luck with the Argos tonight!
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