Handicapping GOY Odds
June 23, 2017
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Game of the Year Odds
The Golden Nugget released 105 spreads for college football’s Games of the Year on Thursday afternoon in Las Vegas.
Alabama is a single-digit favorite for its opener against Florida State in Atlanta and its regular-season finale at Auburn. The Nugget opened the Crimson Tide as a 6.5-point road ‘chalk’ in the Iron Bowl. Other offshore books such as 5Dimes.eu and Sportsbook.ag had Nick Saban’s team favored by only 3.5 points at AU in recent weeks.
Alabama’s other spots find it as a double-digit favorite. The Tide is favored by 12.5 points at Texas A&M, 28 vs. Arkansas, 24.5 vs. Tennessee and 12 vs. LSU. They haven’t been double-digit ‘chalk’ to LSU since 2013.
Ohio State is a single-digit favorite three times. The Buckeyes are favored by seven at home vs. Oklahoma, which will be seeking revenge for last year’s blowout loss to OSU in Norman. They are 8.5-point home faves vs. Penn State and are giving six at Michigan in their regular-season finale. Urban Meyer’s team is favored by a double-digit number at Nebraska (-15.5), at Iowa (-16) and vs. Michigan State (-24.5).
Washington returns seven starters on offense and six on defense from a team that went 12-2 and made the College Football Playoff last season. The Nugget has the Huskies as double-digit ‘chalk’ three times and as underdogs once.
Unless it struggles at Colorado in Week 4, Chris Petersen’s team will most likely cruise into late October undefeated. The Huskies’ schedule sets up great – weak non-conference slate and toughest games at home with the exception of at Stanford. They get an open date before a five-game stretch to close the regular season with four of those contests at home.
With two weeks to prepare, UW is a 14.5-point home favorite to UCLA. Then the Huskies are favored by 13.5 at home vs. Oregon. They go on the road on a short week to face Stanford, which will be looking for redemption after taking a 44-6 beatdown at Husky Stadium last year. Finally, UW is favored by 16 at home in the Apple Cup to close the regular season.
Like Washington in Year 3 on Petersen’s watch, Penn State is coming off a breakout campaign in the third season of James Franklin’s tenure. The Nittany Lions bring back nine starters on offense and six on defense from a squad that went 11-3 with two defeats coming by six combined points.
One of those losses by three points came at Pittsburgh, but PSU is favored by 17.5 at home versus the Panthers in Week 2. In Week 4, Franklin’s team is a 12-point road ‘chalk’ at Iowa. The Nittany Lions get two weeks to prepare for a home game against Michigan, and The Nugget has them favored by 6.5 over the Wolverines.
PSU has back-to-back road assignments after hosting Jim Harbaugh’s club. First, the Lions are 8.5-point underdogs at Ohio State before going to East Lansing as 13-point favorites. They are 17.5-point home ‘chalk’ on Nov. 18 against Nebraska.
Michigan only has five of 22 starters returning from last year’s 10-3 team. Therefore, the Nugget has Harbaugh’s troops as underdogs three times. As already noted, Michigan is catching 6.5 at PSU and six at home vs. Ohio State. The Wolverines are three-point ‘dogs at Wisconsin, but they are favored by 17 coming off an open date vs. Michigan State on Oct. 7.
Staying in the Big Ten, which by the way has four teams in my Top 10 coming out of spring football, let’s check out Wisconsin. The Badgers bring back 15 of 22 starters from an 11-3 squad that saw all three of its defeats come in one-possession games, including an overtime heartbreaker vs. Ohio State.
Paul Chryst’s team doesn’t have to play OSU or PSU, and its gets Michigan at home when the Wolverines are on the road for a second straight week and has arch-rival OSU on deck. The Badgers are 10-point favorites at BYU, eight-point faves at Nebraska, 16.5-point home ‘chalk to Iowa and three-point home faves to Michigan.
Let’s shift over to the ACC and look at its marquee matchups. Obviously, the winner of FSU at Clemson on Nov. 11 will almost certainly win the Atlantic Division. The Tigers, who are two-point home favorites over FSU at The Nugget, have the tougher game the preceding weekend when they are at N.C. State. Remember, the Wolfpack missed a chip-shot field goal at Death Valley on the final play of regulation before losing in overtime last season. FSU has a lay-up the week before going to Clemson, as it hosts Syracuse.
The Seminoles are favored by 12 vs. Miami, by eight vs. Louisville and by four at Florida. The Tigers are favored by 5.5 vs. Auburn and they’re a pick ‘em at Louisville in Week 3. Two weeks later, the defending national champs are seven-point favorites at Va. Tech. Due to inexperience at the QB position, where junior Kelly Bryant or five-star true freshman Hunter Johnson will get the starting nod, I feel like Clemson is most vulnerable in September, especially in its trips to U of L and Va. Tech.
Clemson is an 18-point favorite at home vs. Georgia Tech. I felt like this number was a little too rich, as I made it 15. Back to the trip to Blacksburg, I also thought Clemson was laying a tad much to the Hokies. I made the Tigers 4.5-point road ‘chalk’ at VT. They’re favored by 6.5 at N.C. State and by 10 at South Carolina in their regular-season finale.
Bobby Petrino’s team only has four offensive starters coming back, but one of those is Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are favored by 3.5 at N.C. State in a Thursday night game on Oct. 5.
As previously noted, Miami is a double-digit underdog at FSU. The Hurricanes have lost seven in a row to the Seminoles. UM is a six-point home favorite vs. both Va. Tech and Notre Dame in back-to-back weeks (11/4 & 11/11).
I have four Pac-12 teams in my Post-Spring Top 25. We already covered Washington, so let’s now hit on Southern Cal, Stanford and Washington State. The Trojans host Stanford as nine-point home faves in Week 2, but we should note that the Cardinal plays its opener in Sydney, Australia, vs. Rice on Aug. 26. Therefore, David Shaw’s team will have two weeks to prep for USC.
Clay Helton’s team is a 12.5-point home favorite vs. Texas in Week 3. Then USC has a tough spot at Washington State. on a Friday night. The game against the Cougars is on a short week and will be played six days after the Trojans are at California. Also, Mike Leach’s team is playing its fifth straight home game. Nevertheless, USC is favored by 10 at WSU.
Let’s also mention this about USC’s schedule – it plays 12 weeks in a row and doesn’t have an open date. The Trojans are favored by 20 vs. Utah, by eight at Notre Dame, by 13.5 at Colorado and by 15.5 vs. UCLA.
Stanford is a 9.5-point favorite in a tricky non-conference game at San Diego State. Shaw’s club is also favored by 9.5 vs. UCLA, by 11 vs. Oregon, by 5.5 at Washington State and by 9.5 vs. Notre Dame. The Cardinal gets another open date on Oct. 21 before going to Oregon State on a Thursday night. The fact that they face the Beavers on a Thursday diminishes the back-to-back road situation at Washington State the following week (Saturday).
We’ve already hit on Washington State’s lines against USC, Stanford and Washington. The Cougars are also on the board as favorites by 7.5 vs. Boise State and by four at California. They’ll be looking to avenge a 31-28 loss to BSU on the smurf turf last year.
Now let’s get back to the SEC to conclude things. Auburn is a ‘dog at Clemson and vs. Alabama as noted above. Gus Malzahn’s team will also be in the underdog role at LSU, which is favored by seven in a revenge game that cost Les Miles his job in 2016. AU is a seven-point favorite at Arkansas and a 10-point fave vs. Georgia.
LSU is favored by 7.5 at Tennessee, by 2.5 at Florida, by 16.5 vs. Arkansas and by 12 vs. Texas A&M. The Gators are 9.5-point favorites vs. Tennessee, one-point ‘chalk’ vs. UGA and 4.5-point faves at South Carolina. As usual, the UGA-UF winner will most likely take the SEC East. UF is looking for a third straight division crown since Jim McElwain took over.
Georgia is a three-point underdog at Notre Dame, a one-point ‘dog at Tennessee and a 2.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech.
Games of the Year that I’d play NOW:
Florida -1 vs. Georgia
Washington State +10 vs. USC
Va. Tech +7 vs. Clemson
Florida -4 vs. Texas A&M
Washington State -4 at California[/FONT]
June 23, 2017
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Game of the Year Odds
The Golden Nugget released 105 spreads for college football’s Games of the Year on Thursday afternoon in Las Vegas.
Alabama is a single-digit favorite for its opener against Florida State in Atlanta and its regular-season finale at Auburn. The Nugget opened the Crimson Tide as a 6.5-point road ‘chalk’ in the Iron Bowl. Other offshore books such as 5Dimes.eu and Sportsbook.ag had Nick Saban’s team favored by only 3.5 points at AU in recent weeks.
Alabama’s other spots find it as a double-digit favorite. The Tide is favored by 12.5 points at Texas A&M, 28 vs. Arkansas, 24.5 vs. Tennessee and 12 vs. LSU. They haven’t been double-digit ‘chalk’ to LSU since 2013.
Ohio State is a single-digit favorite three times. The Buckeyes are favored by seven at home vs. Oklahoma, which will be seeking revenge for last year’s blowout loss to OSU in Norman. They are 8.5-point home faves vs. Penn State and are giving six at Michigan in their regular-season finale. Urban Meyer’s team is favored by a double-digit number at Nebraska (-15.5), at Iowa (-16) and vs. Michigan State (-24.5).
Washington returns seven starters on offense and six on defense from a team that went 12-2 and made the College Football Playoff last season. The Nugget has the Huskies as double-digit ‘chalk’ three times and as underdogs once.
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With two weeks to prepare, UW is a 14.5-point home favorite to UCLA. Then the Huskies are favored by 13.5 at home vs. Oregon. They go on the road on a short week to face Stanford, which will be looking for redemption after taking a 44-6 beatdown at Husky Stadium last year. Finally, UW is favored by 16 at home in the Apple Cup to close the regular season.
Like Washington in Year 3 on Petersen’s watch, Penn State is coming off a breakout campaign in the third season of James Franklin’s tenure. The Nittany Lions bring back nine starters on offense and six on defense from a squad that went 11-3 with two defeats coming by six combined points.
One of those losses by three points came at Pittsburgh, but PSU is favored by 17.5 at home versus the Panthers in Week 2. In Week 4, Franklin’s team is a 12-point road ‘chalk’ at Iowa. The Nittany Lions get two weeks to prepare for a home game against Michigan, and The Nugget has them favored by 6.5 over the Wolverines.
PSU has back-to-back road assignments after hosting Jim Harbaugh’s club. First, the Lions are 8.5-point underdogs at Ohio State before going to East Lansing as 13-point favorites. They are 17.5-point home ‘chalk’ on Nov. 18 against Nebraska.
Michigan only has five of 22 starters returning from last year’s 10-3 team. Therefore, the Nugget has Harbaugh’s troops as underdogs three times. As already noted, Michigan is catching 6.5 at PSU and six at home vs. Ohio State. The Wolverines are three-point ‘dogs at Wisconsin, but they are favored by 17 coming off an open date vs. Michigan State on Oct. 7.
Staying in the Big Ten, which by the way has four teams in my Top 10 coming out of spring football, let’s check out Wisconsin. The Badgers bring back 15 of 22 starters from an 11-3 squad that saw all three of its defeats come in one-possession games, including an overtime heartbreaker vs. Ohio State.
Paul Chryst’s team doesn’t have to play OSU or PSU, and its gets Michigan at home when the Wolverines are on the road for a second straight week and has arch-rival OSU on deck. The Badgers are 10-point favorites at BYU, eight-point faves at Nebraska, 16.5-point home ‘chalk to Iowa and three-point home faves to Michigan.
Let’s shift over to the ACC and look at its marquee matchups. Obviously, the winner of FSU at Clemson on Nov. 11 will almost certainly win the Atlantic Division. The Tigers, who are two-point home favorites over FSU at The Nugget, have the tougher game the preceding weekend when they are at N.C. State. Remember, the Wolfpack missed a chip-shot field goal at Death Valley on the final play of regulation before losing in overtime last season. FSU has a lay-up the week before going to Clemson, as it hosts Syracuse.
The Seminoles are favored by 12 vs. Miami, by eight vs. Louisville and by four at Florida. The Tigers are favored by 5.5 vs. Auburn and they’re a pick ‘em at Louisville in Week 3. Two weeks later, the defending national champs are seven-point favorites at Va. Tech. Due to inexperience at the QB position, where junior Kelly Bryant or five-star true freshman Hunter Johnson will get the starting nod, I feel like Clemson is most vulnerable in September, especially in its trips to U of L and Va. Tech.
Clemson is an 18-point favorite at home vs. Georgia Tech. I felt like this number was a little too rich, as I made it 15. Back to the trip to Blacksburg, I also thought Clemson was laying a tad much to the Hokies. I made the Tigers 4.5-point road ‘chalk’ at VT. They’re favored by 6.5 at N.C. State and by 10 at South Carolina in their regular-season finale.
Bobby Petrino’s team only has four offensive starters coming back, but one of those is Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are favored by 3.5 at N.C. State in a Thursday night game on Oct. 5.
As previously noted, Miami is a double-digit underdog at FSU. The Hurricanes have lost seven in a row to the Seminoles. UM is a six-point home favorite vs. both Va. Tech and Notre Dame in back-to-back weeks (11/4 & 11/11).
I have four Pac-12 teams in my Post-Spring Top 25. We already covered Washington, so let’s now hit on Southern Cal, Stanford and Washington State. The Trojans host Stanford as nine-point home faves in Week 2, but we should note that the Cardinal plays its opener in Sydney, Australia, vs. Rice on Aug. 26. Therefore, David Shaw’s team will have two weeks to prep for USC.
Clay Helton’s team is a 12.5-point home favorite vs. Texas in Week 3. Then USC has a tough spot at Washington State. on a Friday night. The game against the Cougars is on a short week and will be played six days after the Trojans are at California. Also, Mike Leach’s team is playing its fifth straight home game. Nevertheless, USC is favored by 10 at WSU.
Let’s also mention this about USC’s schedule – it plays 12 weeks in a row and doesn’t have an open date. The Trojans are favored by 20 vs. Utah, by eight at Notre Dame, by 13.5 at Colorado and by 15.5 vs. UCLA.
Stanford is a 9.5-point favorite in a tricky non-conference game at San Diego State. Shaw’s club is also favored by 9.5 vs. UCLA, by 11 vs. Oregon, by 5.5 at Washington State and by 9.5 vs. Notre Dame. The Cardinal gets another open date on Oct. 21 before going to Oregon State on a Thursday night. The fact that they face the Beavers on a Thursday diminishes the back-to-back road situation at Washington State the following week (Saturday).
We’ve already hit on Washington State’s lines against USC, Stanford and Washington. The Cougars are also on the board as favorites by 7.5 vs. Boise State and by four at California. They’ll be looking to avenge a 31-28 loss to BSU on the smurf turf last year.
Now let’s get back to the SEC to conclude things. Auburn is a ‘dog at Clemson and vs. Alabama as noted above. Gus Malzahn’s team will also be in the underdog role at LSU, which is favored by seven in a revenge game that cost Les Miles his job in 2016. AU is a seven-point favorite at Arkansas and a 10-point fave vs. Georgia.
LSU is favored by 7.5 at Tennessee, by 2.5 at Florida, by 16.5 vs. Arkansas and by 12 vs. Texas A&M. The Gators are 9.5-point favorites vs. Tennessee, one-point ‘chalk’ vs. UGA and 4.5-point faves at South Carolina. As usual, the UGA-UF winner will most likely take the SEC East. UF is looking for a third straight division crown since Jim McElwain took over.
Georgia is a three-point underdog at Notre Dame, a one-point ‘dog at Tennessee and a 2.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech.
Games of the Year that I’d play NOW:
Florida -1 vs. Georgia
Washington State +10 vs. USC
Va. Tech +7 vs. Clemson
Florida -4 vs. Texas A&M
Washington State -4 at California[/FONT]
