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Thread: let's discuss nfl season win totals 2017

  1. #1 let's discuss nfl season win totals 2017 
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    it's getting close to football time again!

    so far i have made season win total so far and looking to make 1 or 2 more.

    i have:

    1. Jets under 5 1350/500 (alt line): almost like guaranteed money. Jets have to win 6 games in order for me to lose this bet

    2. Jets under 4.5 1000/500: i wish i could have bet these a month or so earlier by my local didn't put up season win totals until the all star break for baseball

    3. Bears under 6 1225/500 (alt line): another alt line that is almost like guaranteed money. bears have to win 7 games for me to lose this game. this is the reason i like taking that alt line for half a game. it really buys you two games which is huge in a 16 game season.

    reasoning behind picks below.

    Jets:
    1. they are obviously tanking for a good pick. probably not what bowles wanted to do but i think its a clear message from upper managment. bowles probably not going to be around for the rebuild with the new qb in 2018. i'm sure all of the assistant coaches and vets know this as well. it's got to be a toxic locker room right now.

    2. most teams start out the year with some type of hope or optimism. just don't see how that's possible with the jets.

    3. look at jets schedule for possible wins and i see jags and browns in weeks 4 and 5, bills at home week 9 on a short week, maybe one of the dolphin games??? maybe chargers week 16?? i think they will be lucky to win 3 games but those are the possible wins in my opinion.

    4. they simply don't have an nfl caliber qb

    Bears:
    1. possible wins on the schedule are falcons, one of the viking games, one of the lion games, ravens, niners, browns. i don't think they beat falcons, doubt they beat ravens at baltimore and niners and browns they prob split.

    2. another situation where the upper mgmt and the coaching staff are on different pages. it's really weird that fox didn't know they were drafting a qb number one and they gave up a ton to get him. also sends a message to glennon. pretty laughable way to run a franchise IMO.

    3. clearly the worst team in their division, so can a last place team in a division win 7 games?? no way i lose this bet and i probably win this bet.
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    other win totals i'm kicking around are raiders under 9.5, falcons under 9.5, dallas under 9.5, giants over 9.5, ravens under, bengals over, pats under 12.5.

    would love to hear some others opinion out there.
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    Love every one of them, except the Bears. I think they go 8-8. The two I love the most are PATS under ( No way they win 13 games ) and the Cowboys under, they go 8-8. The one I think is the easiest on the board is the OVER on the 49ers. I think they win 7 or maybe 8 games.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cashducats View Post
    other win totals i'm kicking around are raiders under 9.5, falcons under 9.5, dallas under 9.5, giants over 9.5, ravens under, bengals over, pats under 12.5.

    would love to hear some others opinion out there.
    Raiders and Falcons will both win their divisions, under 9.5 awful bets IMO, i get the all the reasoning i've heard against those 2 teams but they are both still trending upwards with loads of incremental improvement especially from their respective Defenses, i'd leave those 2 alone....
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    Quote Originally Posted by cashducats View Post
    other win totals i'm kicking around are raiders under 9.5, falcons under 9.5, dallas under 9.5, giants over 9.5, ravens under, bengals over, pats under 12.5.

    would love to hear some others opinion out there.
    What's the Ravens total? They will be much improved from last year but have a tough schedule. I'd peg them right around 8/9 wins
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    As a Bears fan, very doubtful they win 6 with that schedule.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winners are Grinners View Post
    Raiders and Falcons will both win their divisions, under 9.5 awful bets IMO, i get the all the reasoning i've heard against those 2 teams but they are both still trending upwards with loads of incremental improvement especially from their respective Defenses, i'd leave those 2 alone....
    The Falcons just lost the SB in the worst way possible and lost their OC. They led the league with an AVG PF of 34.1. That number will come crashing back down to Earth. That offense will take a step back. They have been very fortunate that injuries havent struck their Oline the last few years. I dont see them winning the Division. Vic Beasley had a league leading 15.5 sacks. Do you really believe he will come close to repeating that? I dont. The Bucs and Panthers have better chance at winning the Division. The Saints floor is 7 wins. I think they get 8-9 wins this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintsFan1977 View Post
    The Falcons just lost the SB in the worst way possible and lost their OC. They led the league with an AVG PF of 34.1. That number will come crashing back down to Earth. That offense will take a step back. They have been very fortunate that injuries havent struck their Oline the last few years. I dont see them winning the Division. Vic Beasley had a league leading 15.5 sacks. Do you really believe he will come close to repeating that? I dont. The Bucs and Panthers have better chance at winning the Division. The Saints floor is 7 wins. I think they get 8-9 wins this year.
    I'm sorta high on the Bucs this year. About as high as you can be on them. Because obviously their absolute max potential and ceiling is playoffs. Nothing further than that but I have them getting in or right on the outskirts. Tt over
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mobdeeper7239 View Post
    I'm sorta high on the Bucs this year. About as high as you can be on them. Because obviously their absolute max potential and ceiling is playoffs. Nothing further than that but I have them getting in or right on the outskirts. Tt over
    Mob I tend to agree TB can make the playoffs but i still think ATL is the better team and wins the division and wins double digit games
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winners are Grinners View Post
    Mob I tend to agree TB can make the playoffs but i still think ATL is the better team and wins the division and wins double digit games
    That super bowl hangover is real. Still kicking around the idea of taking Falcons under, remember the Falcons of two years ago? Think this upcoming team is closer to that than what we saw last year. Only thing that gives me hesitation is their d is on a major upward trend.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintsFan1977 View Post
    The Falcons just lost the SB in the worst way possible and lost their OC. They led the league with an AVG PF of 34.1. That number will come crashing back down to Earth. That offense will take a step back. They have been very fortunate that injuries havent struck their Oline the last few years. I dont see them winning the Division. Vic Beasley had a league leading 15.5 sacks. Do you really believe he will come close to repeating that? I dont. The Bucs and Panthers have better chance at winning the Division. The Saints floor is 7 wins. I think they get 8-9 wins this year.
    I think saints absolute ceiling is 8 wins. Think they are more likely to get 6 wins than 8 wins. They lost their ot To injury already and defense has not gotten any better. It's a joke to have loomis be gym of saints and the pelicans. Brees will fall of a cliff any yr now
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  13. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cashducats View Post
    I think saints absolute ceiling is 8 wins. Think they are more likely to get 6 wins than 8 wins. They lost their ot To injury already and defense has not gotten any better. It's a joke to have loomis be gym of saints and the pelicans. Brees will fall of a cliff any yr now
    The same OT that only played 7 games last year. He is very good. He had a freak injury during mini camp and he could come back in the middle of the season. We drafted Ramczyk at OT in the first rd. The offensive line will be OK. Everyone says the defense hasnt improved but tell me how can it be any worse? We lost most of our games by 7 or less points. 3 of those losses were to ST where a FG was blocked and returned for a TD. We got rid of Joe Vitt (LB coach) who never coached up a single LB while he was here. We got rid of Bill Johnson (DL coach), Greg McMahon (ST coach) our ST has sucked for years due to that guy.

    We brought in Mike Nolan to coach the LBs. He knows a thing or 2 about LBs so that area will definitely improve. Aaron Glenn was a Pro bowl CB now coaching our secondary. Last year we lost all of our starting CBs by week 3. Of course the defense sucked. We were starting UDFA at CB the whole year. Delvin Breaux is back, we drafted Lattimore, and have PJ Williams, Sterling Moore, Damian Swann, and Ken Crawley. We have much better depth than last year.

    At LB we had Stephone Anthony who we dont know what will have in him. His rookie year he played decent recording over 100 tackles. They bring in James Lauranitis to man the middle=garbage and put Anthony at SLB a position he has never played. Laurantis goes down and we put Craig Robertson at MLB who did a decent job. We now have Manti Teo and AJ Klein from Carolina. We drafted Anzalone and we still have Ellerbe if he can stay healthy. Nolan has more talent to work with at LB than this Payton coached team has ever had at the position. Our best LB in those years was Jonathan Vilma. Vitt didnt have to coach him up, he was already great.

    On the DLine cam Jordan is a very good DE. We have a bunch of players that need to step up opposite him. Kikaha has 3 torn ACLs and is finally healthy but we cant count on him. We just signed Alex Okafor, and we have Obam Guacham and Daryl Tapp to battle it out. We drafted Trey Hendrickson and Al-Quadin Muhammad at DE. At DT we lost Fairley which is a huge blow. Rankins was a rookie last year and broke his leg in TC so he didnt get playing time until around week 10 but he played very good. We have a bunch of players that will have to step up at the other DT position but there isnt a team in the league that is loaded across the front 7 and the back 5 together.

    Last year I had this team winning 6 games. With the improvements we made, I can see 8 wins minimum. Barring anymore significant injuries this team should be much better than last year.

    Lets look at the offense. You say Brees will fall off a cliff anytime now. No shit . He is 38 years old. Brady is 39. Does he look like he is falling off a cliff tomorrow? No and neither is Brees. They both have at least 2 years left in them playing at a high level. 3-4 is reasonable due to the rules of the game now.

    We lost Cooks to NE but he is a one trick pony taht was very good. Ginn wont match his production but we dont need him to. He just needs to be serviceable and he hasnt lost much speed. Still one of the fastest guys in the league. We have arguably the best RB group in the league. Ingram , AP, and rookie Kamara will keep the heat off Brees. I dont see Brees throwing for 5000 yds this year. He wont have to with the RBs we have. If AP is 80% of what he used to be, thats still better than 50% of the starting running backs in this league. Kamara will fill in the Bush/Sproles role. The offense is top 5 year in and year out. That isnt about to change this year unless Brees gets injured.

    Unless you can predict injuries, this team is destined for no less than 8 wins. Making the playoffs wouldnt surpirse me. I dont see us going to the SB this year but before Brees retires thats very possible. The NFC doesnt have a powerhouse team. GB? Seattle? Dallas? Who? I dont see a team that stand above the rest by a large margin like NE does in the AFC. The NFC South has the best QB division making it tougher but Atlanta and Carolina both lost key pieces of their team losing those Coordinators. Atlanta might not go 6-10 like Carolina did losing the SB, but if anyone thinks that team is setup for the future they are fooling themselves. Losing the SB they way did, will undo that team.

    I wont argue about Loomis. His decisions are what cost this team the last few years but it looks like they are finally trying to get the Saints back to the top of the South. Maybe you dont see improvement, but I do. Once TC is nearly complete I will have a much better feel of this team. The improvements I see could end up being nothing. We will see. Good luck this year cash.
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    Falling off a cliff in the same sentence as Brees? That is being very wishful. Bree's may have the best mental preparation in the nfl as a QB. Dude is machine. Machines don't just fall off. They gradually decline if anything. And last year was no sign of falling off anytime soon. Same story as always with this team.... big plays. They can't prevent big plays from happening. Only superbowl they have had was from giving players extra incentive to stop the other team lol. Which is illegial. Oh man how crazy was it the year after that superbowl...they came back with like the worst defense in the history of the game. Mental game in the NFL is 85-90% of it I believe. Was hard to bounce back mentally after that. Plus didn't Joe Vitt coach one of those years lmao.
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    Mob we won the SB in 2009. 2010 or 2011 is when we had another chance to got to the SB but lost on a 4th down play to SF. It was 2012 when Payton was exiled lol. Then we got Rob Ryan and went to the playoffs in 2013. 2014 was the worst defense. I agree Brees isnt going to fall off soon. We sucked last year but we did go 11-5 ATS. I dont bet on every Saints game. If I think we will lose a game because of a certain situation, I hammer the other team. Its not often I bet on my team.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintsFan1977 View Post
    The same OT that only played 7 games last year. He is very good. He had a freak injury during mini camp and he could come back in the middle of the season. We drafted Ramczyk at OT in the first rd. The offensive line will be OK. Everyone says the defense hasnt improved but tell me how can it be any worse? We lost most of our games by 7 or less points. 3 of those losses were to ST where a FG was blocked and returned for a TD. We got rid of Joe Vitt (LB coach) who never coached up a single LB while he was here. We got rid of Bill Johnson (DL coach), Greg McMahon (ST coach) our ST has sucked for years due to that guy.

    We brought in Mike Nolan to coach the LBs. He knows a thing or 2 about LBs so that area will definitely improve. Aaron Glenn was a Pro bowl CB now coaching our secondary. Last year we lost all of our starting CBs by week 3. Of course the defense sucked. We were starting UDFA at CB the whole year. Delvin Breaux is back, we drafted Lattimore, and have PJ Williams, Sterling Moore, Damian Swann, and Ken Crawley. We have much better depth than last year.

    At LB we had Stephone Anthony who we dont know what will have in him. His rookie year he played decent recording over 100 tackles. They bring in James Lauranitis to man the middle=garbage and put Anthony at SLB a position he has never played. Laurantis goes down and we put Craig Robertson at MLB who did a decent job. We now have Manti Teo and AJ Klein from Carolina. We drafted Anzalone and we still have Ellerbe if he can stay healthy. Nolan has more talent to work with at LB than this Payton coached team has ever had at the position. Our best LB in those years was Jonathan Vilma. Vitt didnt have to coach him up, he was already great.

    On the DLine cam Jordan is a very good DE. We have a bunch of players that need to step up opposite him. Kikaha has 3 torn ACLs and is finally healthy but we cant count on him. We just signed Alex Okafor, and we have Obam Guacham and Daryl Tapp to battle it out. We drafted Trey Hendrickson and Al-Quadin Muhammad at DE. At DT we lost Fairley which is a huge blow. Rankins was a rookie last year and broke his leg in TC so he didnt get playing time until around week 10 but he played very good. We have a bunch of players that will have to step up at the other DT position but there isnt a team in the league that is loaded across the front 7 and the back 5 together.

    Last year I had this team winning 6 games. With the improvements we made, I can see 8 wins minimum. Barring anymore significant injuries this team should be much better than last year.

    Lets look at the offense. You say Brees will fall off a cliff anytime now. No shit . He is 38 years old. Brady is 39. Does he look like he is falling off a cliff tomorrow? No and neither is Brees. They both have at least 2 years left in them playing at a high level. 3-4 is reasonable due to the rules of the game now.

    We lost Cooks to NE but he is a one trick pony taht was very good. Ginn wont match his production but we dont need him to. He just needs to be serviceable and he hasnt lost much speed. Still one of the fastest guys in the league. We have arguably the best RB group in the league. Ingram , AP, and rookie Kamara will keep the heat off Brees. I dont see Brees throwing for 5000 yds this year. He wont have to with the RBs we have. If AP is 80% of what he used to be, thats still better than 50% of the starting running backs in this league. Kamara will fill in the Bush/Sproles role. The offense is top 5 year in and year out. That isnt about to change this year unless Brees gets injured.

    Unless you can predict injuries, this team is destined for no less than 8 wins. Making the playoffs wouldnt surpirse me. I dont see us going to the SB this year but before Brees retires thats very possible. The NFC doesnt have a powerhouse team. GB? Seattle? Dallas? Who? I dont see a team that stand above the rest by a large margin like NE does in the AFC. The NFC South has the best QB division making it tougher but Atlanta and Carolina both lost key pieces of their team losing those Coordinators. Atlanta might not go 6-10 like Carolina did losing the SB, but if anyone thinks that team is setup for the future they are fooling themselves. Losing the SB they way did, will undo that team.

    I wont argue about Loomis. His decisions are what cost this team the last few years but it looks like they are finally trying to get the Saints back to the top of the South. Maybe you dont see improvement, but I do. Once TC is nearly complete I will have a much better feel of this team. The improvements I see could end up being nothing. We will see. Good luck this year cash.
    good write up, I would Ike to see your thoughts after training camp. I think Payton is to blame for the bad d year in and yr out. He's the common denominator. They need bigtime help on d and then draft kamara?? I wouldn't say rb was a position of need. AP... eh. I wouldn't get too excited over an rb over 30 with a history of knee probs. I think that's Payton making those calls not loomis.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mobdeeper7239 View Post
    Falling off a cliff in the same sentence as Brees? That is being very wishful. Bree's may have the best mental preparation in the nfl as a QB. Dude is machine. Machines don't just fall off. They gradually decline if anything. And last year was no sign of falling off anytime soon. Same story as always with this team.... big plays. They can't prevent big plays from happening. Only superbowl they have had was from giving players extra incentive to stop the other team lol. Which is illegial. Oh man how crazy was it the year after that superbowl...they came back with like the worst defense in the history of the game. Mental game in the NFL is 85-90% of it I believe. Was hard to bounce back mentally after that. Plus didn't Joe Vitt coach one of those years lmao.
    paton manning fell of a cliff and I think most would consider his mental preparation amongst the best. I'm just saying an injury or major drop off in play to any of these late 30's qbs would not be a surprise and quite frankly to be expected
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cashducats View Post
    paton manning fell of a cliff and I think most would consider his mental preparation amongst the best. I'm just saying an injury or major drop off in play to any of these late 30's qbs would not be a surprise and quite frankly to be expected
    Peyton "fell off a cliff" to the public because he couldn't throw it deep anymore.....and defenses knew he couldn't throw it deep anymore. But, he missed an entire year due to neck surgery, had a complication and had another procedure. Did he have 2 or 3 in total? He had a marvelous season the first few years there but his upper body was done after those first few years. Brees had shoulder problems years ago after but still has a stronger arm than Peyton did. I just don't see how they are similar as far as longevity. You have to put Brees in the same place as Brady as far as that.

    I saw years ago a story about how Bree's and the Saints organization is in touch with this professional posture/ergonomics guy. He just was explaining to the players at that time how to properly stretch and posture and shit like that. You can just tell someone like Bree's loves that and takes the extra time to implement that into his game... you know recently Bree's came out and said he wanted to play until he was 45? They just aren't built the same way. But Bree's will play until he is 43 I think at the least. People thought Brady was crazy when he said it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cashducats View Post
    good write up, I would Ike to see your thoughts after training camp. I think Payton is to blame for the bad d year in and yr out. He's the common denominator. They need bigtime help on d and then draft kamara?? I wouldn't say rb was a position of need. AP... eh. I wouldn't get too excited over an rb over 30 with a history of knee probs. I think that's Payton making those calls not loomis.

    Payton is definitely part of the blame. It looks like they are at least trying to right the ship though instead of wasting the few years Brees has left.

    We drafted Kamara in the 3rd rd. CB Lattimore in the first at pick 11 which we badly needed CB after last year. All the top DE were gone by our 32 pick. So we got the best OT in the draft to replace Strief. Armstead went down with an injury in mini camp so this is actually a great pick. We didnt reach for a DE. We drafted a ball hawking free safety in Marcus Williams with our second pick. We needed one. Having a great secondary will take you farther in todays game than having a dominant front 7. Then we drafted Kamara because he was a steal at that pick. We have been trying to find a Bush/Sproles replacement and couldnt. With a top TE not on the roster we need a pass catching RB that can eat LBs. Payton is a master at this. It will help keep the defense off the field. Our second 3rd pick was LB Alex Anzalone-the #5 rated LB in the draft. He just needs to stay healthy. Our # 3rd round pick was DE Trey Hendrickson. Our 6th rd pick was DE Muhammad out of Miami U.

    We drafted defense.

    AP is supposed to be as healthy as ever. If there is a RB that can defy the odds, its him. He wont carry the load.Ingram so having peterson replace Hightower isnt bad.
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    I'm heavily leaning to taking giants over (8.5 -145) and cards over 8.5 (-115).

    giants: cowboys can't stay out of the headlines for all the dumb stuff their young players are doing. Giants swept them last yr, skins front office is a joke and they lost their top 2 offensive threats, eagles will rely on 2nd yr qb who faded hard down the stretch. Supposedly they got him weapons but when has alshon been healthy for a full yr and Tory smith? Both of those guys are known as deep threats not precise route runners. I think I may have talked myself into a giants division bet at +250 lol think giants can go at least 4-2 in division. Then 3-1 vs the NFC west and 2-2 vs afc west. Then let's say they split det and tb games. That gives us 10-6. I know the travel is supposedly an issue this yr but I'm looking at the schedule and I must disagree. Eli is supposedly washed up but I think the addition of Rhett Ellison is an overlooked key to this offense. Their te blocking last yr was atrocious which killed the run game and exposed the weak o line when they predictably had to pass. Eli was sharp in the playoff game he was let down by his wr'ers.

    cardinals later on...
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    Cash, I agree with your thinking about the cowboys taking a stepback this year, I won’t be shocked if they ended up 8-8 or 9-7…I was close tomaking the Giants a value play to win the SB at 25/1 but their run game or lackthereof worries me, I hate the idea of virtually every game being put in Eli’shands because whilst he can be clutch he can also be bloody awful when asked todo too much and in his SB years they could always run the ball, what’s yourtake on the Giants being able to run the ball this year and keep Eli protected?I think the NYG D could be pretty scary and will keep them in most games

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    Quote Originally Posted by cashducats View Post
    I'm heavily leaning to taking giants over (8.5 -145)
    Since 2010 a team that has a winning record but a negative turnover differential has a 66% chance of failing to reach the previous years record. Since 2007 its 64%

    Those teams are the Giants, Lions and Texans.

    On the opposite side we have teams that had a losing record but a + turnover differential since 2007 have a 70% chance of getting a better record than the previous year.

    Those teams are the Eagles, Bills and Bengals

    Just food for thought.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winners are Grinners View Post
    Cash, I agree with your thinking about the cowboys taking a stepback this year, I won’t be shocked if they ended up 8-8 or 9-7…I was close tomaking the Giants a value play to win the SB at 25/1 but their run game or lackthereof worries me, I hate the idea of virtually every game being put in Eli’shands because whilst he can be clutch he can also be bloody awful when asked todo too much and in his SB years they could always run the ball, what’s yourtake on the Giants being able to run the ball this year and keep Eli protected?I think the NYG D could be pretty scary and will keep them in most games
    i think the run game will be better and they will keep Eli better protected this yr for a couple of reasons. Rhett Ellison the blocking te they signed. I don't think people realize how bad the blocking from the te position last yr was. This affected the run game and the pass blocking. Paul Perkins will be a 2nd yr rb now. It typically takes some time for rb to learn how to pick up the blitzes. I expect Perkins to make strides in pass protection. He was always so much more explosive than rashad Jennings. Better run game plus better blitz pickup means better giants offense. Also Cruz was not able to get any separation on his routes. Getting Marshall on the other side plus engram and sharp is a good situation for improvement on offense. O line will be mediocre which is an improvement from last yr. make or break yr for ereck flowers so we will see. D should be very good again
    2016-17 NFL 15-19, 2015-16 NFL sides 38-26-5, 2014-15 NFL: sides: 39-39-2, 2013-14 NFL: sides 33-17-3
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  24. #24  
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintsFan1977 View Post
    Since 2010 a team that has a winning record but a negative turnover differential has a 66% chance of failing to reach the previous years record. Since 2007 its 64%

    Those teams are the Giants, Lions and Texans.

    On the opposite side we have teams that had a losing record but a + turnover differential since 2007 have a 70% chance of getting a better record than the previous year.

    Those teams are the Eagles, Bills and Bengals

    Just food for thought.
    the bengal over was tempting to me as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see them take the division. Everyone has the Steelers penciled in but Big Ben' health status and bell and Bryant's drug status are always a question mark
    2016-17 NFL 15-19, 2015-16 NFL sides 38-26-5, 2014-15 NFL: sides: 39-39-2, 2013-14 NFL: sides 33-17-3
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  25. #25  
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    I'm high on the Titans and Giants.
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