Top early 2017 college football national title bets
Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
7/17/17
The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds) have the best odds to win next year's College Football Playoff, but the betting field is wide-open.
Below are eight value picks that have favorable odds to win the 2017 title, all of which have odds worse than 10-1.
Penn State Nittany Lions (20-1)
No one expected Penn State to win the Big Ten title last season, but the Nittany Lions certainly looked more confident after their upset over Ohio State.
This season, Penn State goes from No. 81 on my "Experience Chart" to No. 12. The depth of the roster has improved each season under coach James Franklin, going from one deep at most positions to now having three or four solid options across the board
I have the Nittany Lions favored in 11 games, and that makes them a national title contender.
Wisconsin Badgers (20-1)
Last season, Wisconsin took on six top-10 teams and still went 10-3. That was with a team that had just 11 returning starters (No. 105 on my "Experience Chart") and lost some key defenders to injury during the season.
For 2017, the Badgers move up to No. 33 on my chart, and the schedule lightens with LSU, Penn State and Ohio State dropping off. Wisconsin may not face a top-10 team during the regular season. The Badgers go from facing my No. 20 schedule last season to No. 70 this season, and I have them favored in all 12 games.
Washington Huskies (20-1)
This number appears high for a team that made the playoff last season and is a favorite to get back to the conference title game. Washington was my No. 1 "Surprise Team" last season and the Huskies made the playoff.
This season, they have 14 returning starters and their No. 14 ranking on my "Experience Chart" is the highest of any Pac-12 team. They do have to travel to Stanford, and if they win the North Division will likely have to face USC, who beat them 26-13 in Seattle last year. Still, this team represents solid value and could be favored in all 12 games.
Clemson Tigers (25-1)
The defending national champions can certainly be considered a value pick at this price. Clemson's defense had just three and four returning starters the past two seasons, but now has seven, including my No. 1-rated defensive line in the country.
The Tigers do lose quarterback Deshaun Watson, their top running back and top wide receiver, but have plenty of talent returning. They get both Florida State and Auburn at home, and current game lines in Vegas have Clemson favored in every matchup.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (40-1)
With Oklahoma's Bob Stoops retiring, the Cowboys should be priced closer to 20-1. Last season, No. 10 Oklahoma State traveled to No. 9 Oklahoma for what amounted to the Big 12 title game and led 17-10 with 1:00 left in the first half, but lost. The Big 12 schedule makers like the teams' chances of playing in the Big 12 championship so much that they moved the annual Bedlam game earlier in the season so there wouldn't be an immediate rematch between the Sooners and Cowboys.
Oklahoma State gets Bedlam at home in 2017. With quarterback Mason Rudolph, running back Justice Hill and wide receiver James Washington, the Cowboys have one of the best skill player trios in the country. They don't figure to be more than a field goal underdog in any game, and that makes them a title contender.
Florida Gators (50-1)
The Gators are my No. 1 "Surprise Team" this year and are an outstanding value at 50-1. The past two seasons, Florida has lost its starting quarterback in the first half of the year and still made it to the SEC title game.
This season the Gators have three capable quarterbacks heading into the year in Feleipe Franks, Luke Del Rio and Malik Zaire, combined with the best skill personnel they've fielded in several years. They have their usual top-notch defense, and I rate their special teams No. 3 in the country.
They have just three true road games: versus Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri. They get an inexperienced Michigan in the opener, and Florida's other neutral-site game is versus Georgia, who has lost to the Gators three straight seasons.
Miami Hurricanes (50-1)
If Brad Kaaya had opted to return, the odds on Miami would be closer to 15-1. This is a loaded team. Last season, the Hurricanes had three true freshman linebackers who were all VHTs (very highly touted four- or five-star recruits) and now return after a successful debut. I rate the Miami defensive line No. 4 in the nation, and the Hurricanes have added speed at wide receiver.
Last season, Miami was 9-4, but outgained opponents by 80 yards per game and had a positive score differential of 15.8 points per game.
I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 games and getting to their first-ever ACC title game, so they would be one step away from the playoff and a great value at 50-1.
Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
7/17/17
The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds) have the best odds to win next year's College Football Playoff, but the betting field is wide-open.
Below are eight value picks that have favorable odds to win the 2017 title, all of which have odds worse than 10-1.
Penn State Nittany Lions (20-1)
No one expected Penn State to win the Big Ten title last season, but the Nittany Lions certainly looked more confident after their upset over Ohio State.
This season, Penn State goes from No. 81 on my "Experience Chart" to No. 12. The depth of the roster has improved each season under coach James Franklin, going from one deep at most positions to now having three or four solid options across the board
I have the Nittany Lions favored in 11 games, and that makes them a national title contender.
Wisconsin Badgers (20-1)
Last season, Wisconsin took on six top-10 teams and still went 10-3. That was with a team that had just 11 returning starters (No. 105 on my "Experience Chart") and lost some key defenders to injury during the season.
For 2017, the Badgers move up to No. 33 on my chart, and the schedule lightens with LSU, Penn State and Ohio State dropping off. Wisconsin may not face a top-10 team during the regular season. The Badgers go from facing my No. 20 schedule last season to No. 70 this season, and I have them favored in all 12 games.
Washington Huskies (20-1)
This number appears high for a team that made the playoff last season and is a favorite to get back to the conference title game. Washington was my No. 1 "Surprise Team" last season and the Huskies made the playoff.
This season, they have 14 returning starters and their No. 14 ranking on my "Experience Chart" is the highest of any Pac-12 team. They do have to travel to Stanford, and if they win the North Division will likely have to face USC, who beat them 26-13 in Seattle last year. Still, this team represents solid value and could be favored in all 12 games.
Clemson Tigers (25-1)
The defending national champions can certainly be considered a value pick at this price. Clemson's defense had just three and four returning starters the past two seasons, but now has seven, including my No. 1-rated defensive line in the country.
The Tigers do lose quarterback Deshaun Watson, their top running back and top wide receiver, but have plenty of talent returning. They get both Florida State and Auburn at home, and current game lines in Vegas have Clemson favored in every matchup.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (40-1)
With Oklahoma's Bob Stoops retiring, the Cowboys should be priced closer to 20-1. Last season, No. 10 Oklahoma State traveled to No. 9 Oklahoma for what amounted to the Big 12 title game and led 17-10 with 1:00 left in the first half, but lost. The Big 12 schedule makers like the teams' chances of playing in the Big 12 championship so much that they moved the annual Bedlam game earlier in the season so there wouldn't be an immediate rematch between the Sooners and Cowboys.
Oklahoma State gets Bedlam at home in 2017. With quarterback Mason Rudolph, running back Justice Hill and wide receiver James Washington, the Cowboys have one of the best skill player trios in the country. They don't figure to be more than a field goal underdog in any game, and that makes them a title contender.
Florida Gators (50-1)
The Gators are my No. 1 "Surprise Team" this year and are an outstanding value at 50-1. The past two seasons, Florida has lost its starting quarterback in the first half of the year and still made it to the SEC title game.
This season the Gators have three capable quarterbacks heading into the year in Feleipe Franks, Luke Del Rio and Malik Zaire, combined with the best skill personnel they've fielded in several years. They have their usual top-notch defense, and I rate their special teams No. 3 in the country.
They have just three true road games: versus Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri. They get an inexperienced Michigan in the opener, and Florida's other neutral-site game is versus Georgia, who has lost to the Gators three straight seasons.
Miami Hurricanes (50-1)
If Brad Kaaya had opted to return, the odds on Miami would be closer to 15-1. This is a loaded team. Last season, the Hurricanes had three true freshman linebackers who were all VHTs (very highly touted four- or five-star recruits) and now return after a successful debut. I rate the Miami defensive line No. 4 in the nation, and the Hurricanes have added speed at wide receiver.
Last season, Miami was 9-4, but outgained opponents by 80 yards per game and had a positive score differential of 15.8 points per game.
I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 games and getting to their first-ever ACC title game, so they would be one step away from the playoff and a great value at 50-1.
