<!--?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?-->My Projected Lines and the odds
White Sox and Cubs are playing 4 game series with two games already played in Wrigley Field and now, they are moving to play two games in White Sox ballpark. This is the rivalry from the same city and those games are always interesting. In the first two games, they split wins. White Sox won the first game and they lost yesterday. In both games, they were huge underdog and in first two games playing on White Sox was profitable. Bookmakers opened the odds at around +200 (3.00) on White Sox and then later odds dropped on Cubs and right now we can get White Sox at around +240 (3.4), which I think is little bit too much. I have projected, that White Sox should be an underdog, but only at the price of +131 (2.31). My math model gives 56.7% of chance to the Cubs and 43.3% of chance to White Sox. So, if you want to bet your house on this game Cubs still have better chances, but if you invest long term and if you are looking for a value, than I think we have some value with White Sox today.
Match Up
First of all this is rivalry and in such games anything can happen and historical numbers are on White Sox side when it comes to interleague games here are some interesting past numbers. White Sox record in interleague games since 1997 is 208-172, +34.3 units. On the other side Cubs have negative record since 1997 165-170, -19.4.
Cubs will start with Arrieta, who is 9-7 to the season with ERA of 4.1 and the Cubs will definitely have pitching advantage at the start of the game, because I rank him higher than James Shields on the other side who will start for the White Sox.
But still, I don’t think, that James Shields is totally without chances here. He pitched 4 times against the Cubs in his career and he never lost a game. Not only, that he didn’t lose any games against them, but also his team is 4-0 in those games. Last year, he beat Cubs, when he went 7.7 innings and didn’t allow any run. He allowed only 4 hits. Then one game before that in 2015, he had one of the best games in his career. He went 7 innings against the Cubs and he struck out 11 hitters. And one game before that (2015) he went 6 innings and struck out 9 hitters. So, he has very good history playing against the Cubs.
Of course I am not fooled by those numbers and he is definitely not shining this season. But he will face Cubs team, that doesn7t have the best numbers against right handed pitchers this season. Batting average of 0.236, record: 35-41. So he will face a team, that has batting average below league average against right handed pitchers and he will face a team, who has negative record against right handed pitchers.
Reason for pick
We are not talking about winners. This is the topic for sports fans. We are talking about the price, that we need to pay in this game and the chances, that were offered by bookmakers. I don’t say, that White Sox have better chance to win this game, in fact I say, that they have less than 50% of chance winning this game. My projected numbers show, that White Sox will have around 43.3% of chance in this game. In this situation, I would expect, that if I bet on White Sox and if they win, that bookmakers pay me at least 1.31 units of profit for my every 1 unit risked. But they offer me more. If I bet on White Sox on 5Dimes right now, I get the price of +240 (3.40) and because of that bookmakers will pay me 2.4 units of profit if White Sox win of course. This is 1.19 more, than I would expect. I also like that James Shields played well against the Cubs and I also like the fact, that this is city derby and anything can happen. I think we have a very nice odds on White Sox today.
Play White Sox (Shields)
White Sox and Cubs are playing 4 game series with two games already played in Wrigley Field and now, they are moving to play two games in White Sox ballpark. This is the rivalry from the same city and those games are always interesting. In the first two games, they split wins. White Sox won the first game and they lost yesterday. In both games, they were huge underdog and in first two games playing on White Sox was profitable. Bookmakers opened the odds at around +200 (3.00) on White Sox and then later odds dropped on Cubs and right now we can get White Sox at around +240 (3.4), which I think is little bit too much. I have projected, that White Sox should be an underdog, but only at the price of +131 (2.31). My math model gives 56.7% of chance to the Cubs and 43.3% of chance to White Sox. So, if you want to bet your house on this game Cubs still have better chances, but if you invest long term and if you are looking for a value, than I think we have some value with White Sox today.
Match Up
First of all this is rivalry and in such games anything can happen and historical numbers are on White Sox side when it comes to interleague games here are some interesting past numbers. White Sox record in interleague games since 1997 is 208-172, +34.3 units. On the other side Cubs have negative record since 1997 165-170, -19.4.
Cubs will start with Arrieta, who is 9-7 to the season with ERA of 4.1 and the Cubs will definitely have pitching advantage at the start of the game, because I rank him higher than James Shields on the other side who will start for the White Sox.
But still, I don’t think, that James Shields is totally without chances here. He pitched 4 times against the Cubs in his career and he never lost a game. Not only, that he didn’t lose any games against them, but also his team is 4-0 in those games. Last year, he beat Cubs, when he went 7.7 innings and didn’t allow any run. He allowed only 4 hits. Then one game before that in 2015, he had one of the best games in his career. He went 7 innings against the Cubs and he struck out 11 hitters. And one game before that (2015) he went 6 innings and struck out 9 hitters. So, he has very good history playing against the Cubs.
Of course I am not fooled by those numbers and he is definitely not shining this season. But he will face Cubs team, that doesn7t have the best numbers against right handed pitchers this season. Batting average of 0.236, record: 35-41. So he will face a team, that has batting average below league average against right handed pitchers and he will face a team, who has negative record against right handed pitchers.
Reason for pick
We are not talking about winners. This is the topic for sports fans. We are talking about the price, that we need to pay in this game and the chances, that were offered by bookmakers. I don’t say, that White Sox have better chance to win this game, in fact I say, that they have less than 50% of chance winning this game. My projected numbers show, that White Sox will have around 43.3% of chance in this game. In this situation, I would expect, that if I bet on White Sox and if they win, that bookmakers pay me at least 1.31 units of profit for my every 1 unit risked. But they offer me more. If I bet on White Sox on 5Dimes right now, I get the price of +240 (3.40) and because of that bookmakers will pay me 2.4 units of profit if White Sox win of course. This is 1.19 more, than I would expect. I also like that James Shields played well against the Cubs and I also like the fact, that this is city derby and anything can happen. I think we have a very nice odds on White Sox today.
Play White Sox (Shields)
