The biggest game line moves in college football
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
8/11/17
Perceptions of a team change from week to week during the regular season.
Consider last year' Texas A&M Aggies. They were considered a powerhouse at the midseason mark and were No. 4 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. They ended the year unranked. And just as they do throughout the season, perceptions can change during the offseason.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted opening lines on July 9, and most of those lines are the same now. Still, some lines have moved in recent weeks. Here are the games with the biggest moves and the reasoning behind why they moved.
Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions (Sept. 9)
Penn State opened up as a 16-point favorite, but Pittsburgh dismissed defensive end Rori Blair and has two others suspended for the first three games, including starting free safety Jordan Whitehead. The line has moved up to Penn State -19, and to me, that is an overreaction. Revenge games with power teams often get inflated, which also impacts the number, as Penn State lost on the road last year, 42-39. Pitt will be confident after knocking off both Penn State and the Clemson Tigers last year, and with the two schools being just 142 miles apart, this is a rivalry game.
I expect the number to come back toward 17 at game time. The subtraction of Blair (22 tackles) and Whitehead (65 tackles) does not merit a 3-point move.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Pittsburgh Panthers (Sept. 16)
The Panthers went into Stillwater last year and almost upset the Cowboys, only to come up short 45-38 after giving up a fourth quarter touchdown. This year, they catch them traveling across the country. The game opened with Oklahoma State as the 6-point favorite, and the line has risen above a touchdown to -7.5. While that is just a 1.5-point move, based on the suspensions that I mentioned above, it feels a little off base to me.
Pitt was a 3-point road underdog, and it would have been a 3-point favorite if it had played at home. I like the talent that the Panthers have on offense, and they showed they can play with anyone last year. I rated the game as a pick 'em when I went through all of the games for this year, and now Pittsburgh is a home underdog by more than a touchdown? This number will come down by game time.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (Oct. 7)
Alabama opened up as a 15-point favorite and the number has come down to 14, with money coming in on the Aggies being the main reason. The media is questioning the Alabama pass rush this year, and Texas A&M fans do support their team in Vegas. My personal number on the game when I looked at it in June was 14, and I think that is where it will stay. Alabama fans will step in when it dips below, and Aggie fans when it rises.
Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks (Oct. 28)
This game opened up with Oregon as the 4.5-point favorite in Autzen Stadium, but the line has since risen to 5.5. Since that opening number came out, Oregon's top wide receiver, Darren Carrington, got booted off the team -- and Utah scooped him up and added him to their receiving corps. With Pitt's games getting adjusted to a couple of suspensions, you would have thought this game would have moved in the opposite direction than it did.
Still, I have Oregon at No. 26 in my Power Poll and Utah at No. 43, and I personally had the Ducks -10. Autzen Stadium is a tough place to play, and after Oregon was embarrassed 62-20 there two years ago, they will be looking for revenge. They certainly have the talent to get it done, too. I would expect this number to climb to seven.
USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (Nov. 11)
The line on this opened up at USC -14 and dropped a point to -13. To me, this is a proper correction, and I even think it will continue to drop.
Last year, USC won at home by only four points in a tight game. Now the warm-weather California boys are traveling to a potentially snowy Boulder, Colorado, in November and will have to deal with the altitude and weather. Colorado is the defending Pac-12 South champ, yet it is a two-touchdown 'dog at home? I like USC and have Colorado pegged for fourth in the South, but the Buffaloes are a very talented group.
This seems like a trap game for USC, which may be playing tight to protect an undefeated record. I had USC -7 when I first looked at this game, and I think the number will resemble that a little more at game time.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (Nov. 23)
Mississippi State moved from a 5-point favorite to a 10-point favorite. Last year, Mississippi State won the Egg Bowl. In doing so, the Bulldogs not only knocked the Rebels out of a bowl game, but they also qualified for a bowl at 5-7 by getting to five wins with their academic achievement. That win was on the road, and Mississippi State gets the Egg Bowl at home this year.
They were favored by a little more than the home field edge at -5 in the opening numbers. Since the firing of Hugh Freeze, the line has shot up five points to -10. This could go two ways. If Ole Miss starts to lose players in August, the season could spiral out of control. However, I like Ole Miss' talent, and Matt Luke will have to answer fewer off-field questions than Freeze did, so I think when the game rolls around, the line will be closer to -3. I would grab the inflated value on Ole Miss and take the 10 points right now.
Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats (Nov. 25)
Louisville opened up as an 11.5-point favorite in this one, and the number has since dipped to 10. Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook says money on Kentucky has moved the line. Last year, Kentucky went on the road and upset No. 11 Louisville, 41-38. In the two years prior, Kentucky blew leads against their rival and lost, so these games are always competitive.
When I did my number in June, it was Louisville -3. Kentucky has 17 returning starters and gets this game at home. Louisville's offense averaged 49.6 points per game in their first 10 games last year, but once teams caught up to Lamar Jackson, the Cardinals averaged just 19 points per game over their last three games. I think this number will continue to drop.
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
8/11/17
Perceptions of a team change from week to week during the regular season.
Consider last year' Texas A&M Aggies. They were considered a powerhouse at the midseason mark and were No. 4 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. They ended the year unranked. And just as they do throughout the season, perceptions can change during the offseason.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted opening lines on July 9, and most of those lines are the same now. Still, some lines have moved in recent weeks. Here are the games with the biggest moves and the reasoning behind why they moved.
Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions (Sept. 9)
Penn State opened up as a 16-point favorite, but Pittsburgh dismissed defensive end Rori Blair and has two others suspended for the first three games, including starting free safety Jordan Whitehead. The line has moved up to Penn State -19, and to me, that is an overreaction. Revenge games with power teams often get inflated, which also impacts the number, as Penn State lost on the road last year, 42-39. Pitt will be confident after knocking off both Penn State and the Clemson Tigers last year, and with the two schools being just 142 miles apart, this is a rivalry game.
I expect the number to come back toward 17 at game time. The subtraction of Blair (22 tackles) and Whitehead (65 tackles) does not merit a 3-point move.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Pittsburgh Panthers (Sept. 16)
The Panthers went into Stillwater last year and almost upset the Cowboys, only to come up short 45-38 after giving up a fourth quarter touchdown. This year, they catch them traveling across the country. The game opened with Oklahoma State as the 6-point favorite, and the line has risen above a touchdown to -7.5. While that is just a 1.5-point move, based on the suspensions that I mentioned above, it feels a little off base to me.
Pitt was a 3-point road underdog, and it would have been a 3-point favorite if it had played at home. I like the talent that the Panthers have on offense, and they showed they can play with anyone last year. I rated the game as a pick 'em when I went through all of the games for this year, and now Pittsburgh is a home underdog by more than a touchdown? This number will come down by game time.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (Oct. 7)
Alabama opened up as a 15-point favorite and the number has come down to 14, with money coming in on the Aggies being the main reason. The media is questioning the Alabama pass rush this year, and Texas A&M fans do support their team in Vegas. My personal number on the game when I looked at it in June was 14, and I think that is where it will stay. Alabama fans will step in when it dips below, and Aggie fans when it rises.
Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks (Oct. 28)
This game opened up with Oregon as the 4.5-point favorite in Autzen Stadium, but the line has since risen to 5.5. Since that opening number came out, Oregon's top wide receiver, Darren Carrington, got booted off the team -- and Utah scooped him up and added him to their receiving corps. With Pitt's games getting adjusted to a couple of suspensions, you would have thought this game would have moved in the opposite direction than it did.
Still, I have Oregon at No. 26 in my Power Poll and Utah at No. 43, and I personally had the Ducks -10. Autzen Stadium is a tough place to play, and after Oregon was embarrassed 62-20 there two years ago, they will be looking for revenge. They certainly have the talent to get it done, too. I would expect this number to climb to seven.
USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (Nov. 11)
The line on this opened up at USC -14 and dropped a point to -13. To me, this is a proper correction, and I even think it will continue to drop.
Last year, USC won at home by only four points in a tight game. Now the warm-weather California boys are traveling to a potentially snowy Boulder, Colorado, in November and will have to deal with the altitude and weather. Colorado is the defending Pac-12 South champ, yet it is a two-touchdown 'dog at home? I like USC and have Colorado pegged for fourth in the South, but the Buffaloes are a very talented group.
This seems like a trap game for USC, which may be playing tight to protect an undefeated record. I had USC -7 when I first looked at this game, and I think the number will resemble that a little more at game time.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (Nov. 23)
Mississippi State moved from a 5-point favorite to a 10-point favorite. Last year, Mississippi State won the Egg Bowl. In doing so, the Bulldogs not only knocked the Rebels out of a bowl game, but they also qualified for a bowl at 5-7 by getting to five wins with their academic achievement. That win was on the road, and Mississippi State gets the Egg Bowl at home this year.
They were favored by a little more than the home field edge at -5 in the opening numbers. Since the firing of Hugh Freeze, the line has shot up five points to -10. This could go two ways. If Ole Miss starts to lose players in August, the season could spiral out of control. However, I like Ole Miss' talent, and Matt Luke will have to answer fewer off-field questions than Freeze did, so I think when the game rolls around, the line will be closer to -3. I would grab the inflated value on Ole Miss and take the 10 points right now.
Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats (Nov. 25)
Louisville opened up as an 11.5-point favorite in this one, and the number has since dipped to 10. Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook says money on Kentucky has moved the line. Last year, Kentucky went on the road and upset No. 11 Louisville, 41-38. In the two years prior, Kentucky blew leads against their rival and lost, so these games are always competitive.
When I did my number in June, it was Louisville -3. Kentucky has 17 returning starters and gets this game at home. Louisville's offense averaged 49.6 points per game in their first 10 games last year, but once teams caught up to Lamar Jackson, the Cardinals averaged just 19 points per game over their last three games. I think this number will continue to drop.
