100 College Football Betting Nuggets To Know
David Purdum
8/22/17
College football went to the 'dogs last season, 200 of them.
During the 2016 regular season, exactly 200 teams, designated underdogs by the betting odds, pulled off outright upsets. That's the most upsets in the last 12 seasons, according sports betting database BetLabSports.com on SportsInsights.
Underdogs also had their most successful season against the point spread in 2016, covering the number in 52.5 percent of games. That's the highest percentage in the last 12 seasons.
Of note, though, last season's run of 'dogs followed a 2015 campaign that was dominated by favorites. Underdogs pulled 162 straight-up upsets in 2015, the second-fewest in the last 12 seasons. Favorites covered the spread in 423 games in 2015, the most of any of the last 12 seasons.
What 2017 brings in the battle of favorites versus underdogs is anyone's guess, but a regression to the mean wouldn't be surprising. Since 2005, favorites are 4,455-4,452 against the spread.
In the meantime, here are 100 notable Vegas-style nuggets to get you ready for the college football season:
• South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews, a college football specialist, doesn't have Alabama ranked No. 1 in his power ratings. "It's not like I have some slouch team [at No. 1]," Andrews said. "It's Ohio State, with Urban Meyer."
There's not a huge gap between the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide, Andrews added, noting that the betting market would likely dictate Alabama as a favorite over Ohio State in a head-to-head meeting. But, to start the season, the Buckeyes have the highest ceiling of any team in Andrews' eyes.
• More money has been bet on Alabama to win the national championship than any other team at multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks. At William Hill, 20 percent of the amount wagered on the book's odds to win the national championship has been on the Crimson Tide.
Most bets to win national championship at William Hill
1. USC
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State
5. Alabama
Most money wagered on to win national championship at William Hill
1. Alabama
2. USC
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State
5. Michigan
Notable national title bets at William Hill
• $500 on BYU at 300-1, placed Aug. 15. Would net $150,000.
• $1,000 on Stanford at 100-1, placed March 15. Would net $100,000.
• $200 on BYU 500-1, placed June 24. Would net $100,000
• $200 on Arkansas 500-1, placed July 5. Would net $100,000.
• $1,000 on Miami, Fla., at 75-1, placed Aug. 16. Would net $75,000.
• $2,000 on Louisville at 30-1, placed July 3. Would net $60,000.
• $200 on Michigan St 250-1, placed Jan 11. Would net $50,000.
• $200 on NC State at 250-1, placed Jan 11. Would net $50,000.
• $100 on South Florida at 500-1, placed June 30. Would net $50,000.
Notable movement in the Westgate SuperBook's odds to win the national title
• Wisconsin from 40-1 to 20-1
• Notre Dame from 60-1 to 25-1
• Oklahoma from 8-1 to 18-1
• Louisville from 10-1 to 30-1
• Michigan from 12-1 to 20-1
• LSU from 12-1 to 20-1
• Texas from 20-1 to 40-1
• Colorado from 60-1 to 300-1
Sharp season wins (Teams that have attracted bets from respected players at South Point)
• Arkansas over 6.5
• Army under 7
• Cincinnati over 6
• Florida Atlantic over 5
• Georgia State under 5
• Hawaii over 5
• Kansas over 3
• Marshall over 6
• UMass over 3
• Mississippi State over 5.5
• Penn State under 9.5
• San Diego State under 9
• Texas A&M under 7
Rise of the Trojans
"They're betting USC every way possible," said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk for Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology. • USC's season-win total opened at 9.5 (-130 over) at CG Technology, but has been bet up to 9.5 (-210 over).
• USC's odds to win the national championship have shortened from 8-1 to 7-1.
• USC is even-money to win the Pac-12.
• Trojans QB Sam Darnold has seen his odds to win the Heisman Trophy improve from 6-1 to 5-2.
Most bets to win the Heisman Trophy at CG Technology
1. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
2. USC QB Sam Darnold
3. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett
4. LSU RB Derrius Guice
5. Georgia RB Nick Chubb
Most money bet to win the Heisman Trophy at CG Technology
1. Darnold
2. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
3. Barkley
4. Barrett
5. Guice
Best ATS teams since 2012
• Temple 39-24
• Colorado State 38-24
• Duke 30-20
• Georgia State 30-20
• Rice 36-25
Worst ATS teams since 2012
• UConn 18-40
• South Alabama 23-41
• Kansas 22-37
• California 23-38
• Arizona 25-40
Notable national championship bets at CG Technology
• $8,000 on Alabama at 3-1.Would net $24,000.
• $2,000 on Clemson at 22-1. Would net $44,000.
• $800 on Miami (FL) at 85-1. Would net $68,000.
• $100 on Maryland at 150-1. Would net $15,000.
Notable nuggets
• Nevada sportsbooks have never had a losing September since gaming control began archiving sports betting revenue numbers in 1988.
• Underdogs have had the most success against the spread in October, going 616-583 against the spread during the middle month of the regular season over the last five seasons. During that same stretch, favorites have gone 637-598 ATS in November, their best month.
• Road teams have owned November, going 652-568 ATS during the regular season's final month since 2012. (Overall, road teams went 2,019-1,897 against the spread in the last five seasons).
• In the 2016 regular season, 52.2 percent of games stayed under the total, making it the best year for unders in the last 12 seasons.
• There have been more unders than overs in eight of the past 12 seasons.
• Unders have gone 510-459 in October over last five seasons.
• First-game favorites are 210-209 against the spread over the last five seasons.
• In the past five seasons, Ohio State and Boise State have been the most popular bets. The Buckeyes and Broncos each attracted 55 percent or greater of bets in 50 games, the most of any teams, according to BetLabSports.com on SportsInsights.
• Caesars Palace took a "few decent-sized bets" on Oklahoma State to win the Big 12, improving the Cowboys' odds from +300 to +175.
Best ATS home teams in last five seasons
• Colorado State 19-9
• Rice 16-9
• Arkansas State 19-11
• Baylor 19-11
• Fresno State 19-11
Worst ATS home teams in last five seasons
• South Alabama 9-24
• Appalachian State 9-24
• Purdue 11-24
• Akron 10-20
• Louisiana-Monroe 8-16
Coaching nuggets
• Coach Randy Edsall went 72-47 ATS (60.5 percent) at UConn from 2000-2010. After five unsuccessful seasons at Maryland, Edsall returns to coach the Huskies this year.
• Coach Nick Saban is 8-1 ATS in season openers at Alabama.
• Alabama is 3-12 ATS after a straight-up loss under Saban. The Crimson Tide lost in the national championship game to Clemson to end last season.
• For his career, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer 39-10 ATS with more than one week to prepare, including 9-3 in season openers.
• Teams coached by Ed Orgeron have gone 4-13 ATS in September, the worst such mark of any active coach.
• Three fast starters: Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin -- 24-11 ATS in September; Washington's Chris Petersen -- 24-15 ATS in September; Middle Tennessee's Rick Stockstill -- 25-16 in September.
• Since 2005, Kansas State coach Bill Snyder is 51-26 ATS in conference play.
• Since 2005, teams coached by Rich Rodriguez are 35-62 ATS in conference play.
• Since 2005, teams coached by Urban Meyer are 33-16 ATS versus nonconference competition.
• New Mexico State coach Doug Martin is 16-26 ATS versus nonconference competition, the worst such mark of any active coach.
• 59.0 percent of Arkansas coach Bret Bielema's games have gone over the total.
• 59.5 percent of Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald's games have gone under the total.
• Three strong finishers: North Carolina's Larry Fedora -- 23-11 ATS in November; TCU's Gary Patterson -- 26-15 ATS in November; Wake Forest's Dave Clawson -- 19-9 ATS in November.
David Purdum
8/22/17
College football went to the 'dogs last season, 200 of them.
During the 2016 regular season, exactly 200 teams, designated underdogs by the betting odds, pulled off outright upsets. That's the most upsets in the last 12 seasons, according sports betting database BetLabSports.com on SportsInsights.
Underdogs also had their most successful season against the point spread in 2016, covering the number in 52.5 percent of games. That's the highest percentage in the last 12 seasons.
Of note, though, last season's run of 'dogs followed a 2015 campaign that was dominated by favorites. Underdogs pulled 162 straight-up upsets in 2015, the second-fewest in the last 12 seasons. Favorites covered the spread in 423 games in 2015, the most of any of the last 12 seasons.
What 2017 brings in the battle of favorites versus underdogs is anyone's guess, but a regression to the mean wouldn't be surprising. Since 2005, favorites are 4,455-4,452 against the spread.
In the meantime, here are 100 notable Vegas-style nuggets to get you ready for the college football season:
• South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews, a college football specialist, doesn't have Alabama ranked No. 1 in his power ratings. "It's not like I have some slouch team [at No. 1]," Andrews said. "It's Ohio State, with Urban Meyer."
There's not a huge gap between the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide, Andrews added, noting that the betting market would likely dictate Alabama as a favorite over Ohio State in a head-to-head meeting. But, to start the season, the Buckeyes have the highest ceiling of any team in Andrews' eyes.
• More money has been bet on Alabama to win the national championship than any other team at multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks. At William Hill, 20 percent of the amount wagered on the book's odds to win the national championship has been on the Crimson Tide.
Most bets to win national championship at William Hill
1. USC
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State
5. Alabama
Most money wagered on to win national championship at William Hill
1. Alabama
2. USC
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State
5. Michigan
Notable national title bets at William Hill
• $500 on BYU at 300-1, placed Aug. 15. Would net $150,000.
• $1,000 on Stanford at 100-1, placed March 15. Would net $100,000.
• $200 on BYU 500-1, placed June 24. Would net $100,000
• $200 on Arkansas 500-1, placed July 5. Would net $100,000.
• $1,000 on Miami, Fla., at 75-1, placed Aug. 16. Would net $75,000.
• $2,000 on Louisville at 30-1, placed July 3. Would net $60,000.
• $200 on Michigan St 250-1, placed Jan 11. Would net $50,000.
• $200 on NC State at 250-1, placed Jan 11. Would net $50,000.
• $100 on South Florida at 500-1, placed June 30. Would net $50,000.
Notable movement in the Westgate SuperBook's odds to win the national title
• Wisconsin from 40-1 to 20-1
• Notre Dame from 60-1 to 25-1
• Oklahoma from 8-1 to 18-1
• Louisville from 10-1 to 30-1
• Michigan from 12-1 to 20-1
• LSU from 12-1 to 20-1
• Texas from 20-1 to 40-1
• Colorado from 60-1 to 300-1
Sharp season wins (Teams that have attracted bets from respected players at South Point)
• Arkansas over 6.5
• Army under 7
• Cincinnati over 6
• Florida Atlantic over 5
• Georgia State under 5
• Hawaii over 5
• Kansas over 3
• Marshall over 6
• UMass over 3
• Mississippi State over 5.5
• Penn State under 9.5
• San Diego State under 9
• Texas A&M under 7
Rise of the Trojans
"They're betting USC every way possible," said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk for Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology. • USC's season-win total opened at 9.5 (-130 over) at CG Technology, but has been bet up to 9.5 (-210 over).
• USC's odds to win the national championship have shortened from 8-1 to 7-1.
• USC is even-money to win the Pac-12.
• Trojans QB Sam Darnold has seen his odds to win the Heisman Trophy improve from 6-1 to 5-2.
Most bets to win the Heisman Trophy at CG Technology
1. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
2. USC QB Sam Darnold
3. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett
4. LSU RB Derrius Guice
5. Georgia RB Nick Chubb
Most money bet to win the Heisman Trophy at CG Technology
1. Darnold
2. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
3. Barkley
4. Barrett
5. Guice
Best ATS teams since 2012
• Temple 39-24
• Colorado State 38-24
• Duke 30-20
• Georgia State 30-20
• Rice 36-25
Worst ATS teams since 2012
• UConn 18-40
• South Alabama 23-41
• Kansas 22-37
• California 23-38
• Arizona 25-40
Notable national championship bets at CG Technology
• $8,000 on Alabama at 3-1.Would net $24,000.
• $2,000 on Clemson at 22-1. Would net $44,000.
• $800 on Miami (FL) at 85-1. Would net $68,000.
• $100 on Maryland at 150-1. Would net $15,000.
Notable nuggets
• Nevada sportsbooks have never had a losing September since gaming control began archiving sports betting revenue numbers in 1988.
• Underdogs have had the most success against the spread in October, going 616-583 against the spread during the middle month of the regular season over the last five seasons. During that same stretch, favorites have gone 637-598 ATS in November, their best month.
• Road teams have owned November, going 652-568 ATS during the regular season's final month since 2012. (Overall, road teams went 2,019-1,897 against the spread in the last five seasons).
• In the 2016 regular season, 52.2 percent of games stayed under the total, making it the best year for unders in the last 12 seasons.
• There have been more unders than overs in eight of the past 12 seasons.
• Unders have gone 510-459 in October over last five seasons.
• First-game favorites are 210-209 against the spread over the last five seasons.
• In the past five seasons, Ohio State and Boise State have been the most popular bets. The Buckeyes and Broncos each attracted 55 percent or greater of bets in 50 games, the most of any teams, according to BetLabSports.com on SportsInsights.
• Caesars Palace took a "few decent-sized bets" on Oklahoma State to win the Big 12, improving the Cowboys' odds from +300 to +175.
Best ATS home teams in last five seasons
• Colorado State 19-9
• Rice 16-9
• Arkansas State 19-11
• Baylor 19-11
• Fresno State 19-11
Worst ATS home teams in last five seasons
• South Alabama 9-24
• Appalachian State 9-24
• Purdue 11-24
• Akron 10-20
• Louisiana-Monroe 8-16
Coaching nuggets
• Coach Randy Edsall went 72-47 ATS (60.5 percent) at UConn from 2000-2010. After five unsuccessful seasons at Maryland, Edsall returns to coach the Huskies this year.
• Coach Nick Saban is 8-1 ATS in season openers at Alabama.
• Alabama is 3-12 ATS after a straight-up loss under Saban. The Crimson Tide lost in the national championship game to Clemson to end last season.
• For his career, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer 39-10 ATS with more than one week to prepare, including 9-3 in season openers.
• Teams coached by Ed Orgeron have gone 4-13 ATS in September, the worst such mark of any active coach.
• Three fast starters: Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin -- 24-11 ATS in September; Washington's Chris Petersen -- 24-15 ATS in September; Middle Tennessee's Rick Stockstill -- 25-16 in September.
• Since 2005, Kansas State coach Bill Snyder is 51-26 ATS in conference play.
• Since 2005, teams coached by Rich Rodriguez are 35-62 ATS in conference play.
• Since 2005, teams coached by Urban Meyer are 33-16 ATS versus nonconference competition.
• New Mexico State coach Doug Martin is 16-26 ATS versus nonconference competition, the worst such mark of any active coach.
• 59.0 percent of Arkansas coach Bret Bielema's games have gone over the total.
• 59.5 percent of Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald's games have gone under the total.
• Three strong finishers: North Carolina's Larry Fedora -- 23-11 ATS in November; TCU's Gary Patterson -- 26-15 ATS in November; Wake Forest's Dave Clawson -- 19-9 ATS in November.
