On The Hop's 2017-2018 NCAA Football

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8/26/2017 (0-0, +0.00u)

Colorado State Rams -4 (-110), 2 units:
The Rams really turned things around mid way through the year last year. Now we're hitting Bobo's third year which means the program should be dominated by his players as opposed to those he inherited. They could be one of those teams that challenges for the Group of 5 NYD Bowl Game. While I expect the Beavers to be improved this year, they have two things working against them. One, they don't have the weapons on offense to keep up with CSU who is loaded across the board. Second, they haven't shown much of an ability to compete on the road under Andersen. Combine that with Fort Collins excitement over the new stadium and I think you have too tough of an environment for an over matched Oregon State squad.
 

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Hop.......BOL with your action and this season........have a great weekend.........indy
 

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8/31/2017 (1-0, +2.00u)

Indiana Hoosiers +21 (-110), 1 unit:
Let's get one thing out of the way, the Buckeyes are loaded and they're winning this game. So, why back the Hoosiers? A few reasons. First, everything I've read tells me the Indiana players hate their former coach who is now on the Ohio State staff. Conversely they played their asses off for their new coach and almost upset Utah in their bowl game. Second, while they were not spectacular last year, the Hoosiers bring back the most experienced defense in the country. Third, Indiana has play makers at QB and WR. Fourth, the Buckeyes have Oklahoma next week which tells me they're not going to break out every offensive play they have and will probably play fairly vanilla knowing they're the superior team. This leaves the backdoor open as well as I expect them to rest their stars once they have a significant lead.
 

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Thanks Gold_finger....looked good for awhile but then the damn wheels came off!!! Oh well. Hope to get back on the winning track tonight.
 

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9/1/2017 (1-1, +.90u)

Colorado State Rams +3.5 (-110), 1 unit:
Missed the best number on this game by a mile. Should have jumped on it after their win last week. I still think the Rams are the better, more explosive team on offense. They also have the benefit of a game under their belts and most teams make a big jump between game 1 and game 2. Buffaloes have a ton of experience back on offense but their defense has to replace 9 starters and that is a recipe for trouble against this Colorado State offense.

Florida Atlantic Owls +10 (-110), 2 units:
Absolutely hate playing against the service academies. However if you're going to go against the Midshipmen it's when a team has time to prepare. FAU has had all off season to prep for the option. They return 17 starters and have a brand new offense that Navy has not seen any film on to prepare. I look for the students and community to be relatively excited for Kiffin's debut which may actually give them a bit of a home field advantage in this one. In a game where they should be going up and down the field all night, I'll gladly grab double digits with the more experienced home team.
 

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to bad urban just keeps all key people in the game and beats down a great effort by an over matched team !
 

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Good point Bocabill......truthfully I thought he would pull a few key guys with Oklahoma up next week. Nope.
 

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9/2/2017 (1-1, +.90u)......Friday Night's Games Still Pending

Akron Zips +30.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Nittany Lions are loaded on offense and have a lot of their top talent back. The Penn State hype machine is out in full force. A few things are working against them. First, they got every bounce and break last year. Those things even out. Second, they have Pitt next week and that's a huge revenge spot for them so there is the potential for a look ahead or the back door staying open. The Zips have a very experienced team returning 15 starters and they get Warren Ball back in their backfield. This very experienced defense adds transfers from Florida State and Miami and has enough athletes to compete. Akron isn't winning this game but the number seems inflated to me.

Arkansas State Red Wolves +14.5 (-110), 1 unit: Love how the Red Wolves turned things around at the end of last year and completed it by beating UCF in Orlando in their bowl game. They have a strong defense that adds a couple of transfers from Boise State and Clemson which should help against the Cornhuskers pro style attack. The offense can put up points and with Nebraska breaking in a new offensive and defensive scheme, 2+ TD's seems like too much to give.

California Golden Bears +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: While inexperienced, look for the Bears to be a more disciplined better defensive team than last year. The Tar Heels are breaking a lot of new skill players on offense and their defense is going to have trouble with the Cal WRs. Fedora's teams tend to underachieve and laying double digits against a Justin Wilcox coached team just does not seem like a good idea, especially with Louisville up next.

Florida State Seminoles +7 (-110), 1 unit: Not a ton of analysis here. To me these are the two best teams in the country. They both have excellent coaches, tough as nails QBs that know how to win, strong defenses and good run games. When two teams are this evenly matched I'll gladly take a TD on a neutral field.

LSU Tigers -14 (-120), 1 unit: The Tigers simply don't lose non-conference games (last year's game against Wisconsin was the first in forever). The Cougars looked awful in their first game but will be greatly improved in this one. I'm willing to give two TD's with LSU for one reason...Matt Canada. He's developed proficient, winning offenses everywhere he's been. Combine that with Dave Aranda's defense and the Tigers are one of my sleeper teams this year. BYU can't score enough points to stay within 14 and I look for an LSU squad that loves Coach O to play their guts out for him in his first game as their full time coach.
 

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9/3/2017 (5-6, -2.60)

Virginia Tech Hokies/UCLA Bruins ML Parlay (+121), 2 units
 

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9/4/2017 (6-6, -.18)

Tennessee Volunteers -3 (-115), 1 unit:
The Vols are traditionally good in neutral site openers. In addition they have experience and talent on the D Line and at LB which are key in preparing for the Yellow Jackets option attack. Their ability to prepare for over a month has to have them ready as well. Georgia Tech losing their most talented RB, Mills is not being factored into the number correctly. The stadium is only 2 miles from the Yellow Jackets' campus but with the way Tennessee fans travel I expect them to have a home field advantage in this one.
 

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9/8/2017 (6-7, -1.33)

Ohio Bobcats +3 (-115), 1 unit:
The Boilermakers looked better than expected last week against Louisville. However, taking a closer look, they were out gained by almost 200 yards and recovered three fumbles. The Bobcats bring back 13 starters and did not have to show anything last week against Hampton. They have two winnable games against P5 schools and my guess would be they've been preparing for those two games since fall practices started. This is the same team that almost beat Tennessee in Knoxville last year without their 3 best RBs. Look for them to control the clock and rely on their experienced LBs and secondary and to grind out a win in W. Lafayette.
 

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9/9/2017 (6-7, -1.33)

Northwestern Wildcats -2.5 (-110), 2 units:
Value here on the Wildcats due to their less than stellar performance last week. Northwestern is still one of the most experienced, underrated teams in college football. The Blue Devils come in off an impressive win while scoring 60 points over North Carolina Central. The public is going to jump all over that and I'll gladly take the more talented, more experienced team with a small number

Cincinnati Bearcats +34 (-110), 1 unit:
The Wolverines are overvalued here coming off an impressive win over Florida. The Gators offense is awful and as good as Michigan's defense is, they're not that good. This is the perfect opportunity for a letdown spot with a very inexperienced team facing a Bearcats coach that knows exactly how to game plan against Michigan with his Ohio State experience. Hold your nose, hope Cincy can find the end zone once or twice and stay within the number.

Penn State Nittany Lions -21 (-110), 1 unit: I really hate laying such a huge number in a rivalry game but the talent gap is too big to ignore. The Nittany Lions are incredibly talented on offense and the Panthers are not good enough to take advantage of any opportunities Penn State's defense might give them. The Nittany Lions have not forgotten about last year's loss and I expect they do not let up at any point to send a message and extract some revenge.

South Carolina Gamecocks +3 (-110), 1 unit:
Both teams can score. Only one has any type of defense and that's the Gamecocks. I get the better defense, plus the points? The only reason I'm not playing this one at 2 or even 3 units is the number just does not make sense to me which tells me something might be fishy with this one.

Clemson Tigers -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Tigers lost a lot on offense from last year's National Champion. However, I think they have the best defense in the conference. Huge game, at night, in Death Valley and the number is under a TD? I just don't see War Eagle having any luck moving the ball. An insane home crowd carries Clemson to victory.

Georgia Bulldogs +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: A lot of love for the Fighting Irish after they beat Temple last week. To me the Bulldogs win was more impressive. They shut down a good App State team entirely. This is not Mark Richt's Georgia team. They are one of the best defenses in the country, they're disciplined and they play to their strengths. Rumor has it that half the stadium will be Georgia fans and I think the Dawgz D is the difference in this one.

Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-120), 1 unit:
Value here with the Buckeyes since they struggled early with Indiana. Once they settled down they were completely dominant. The Hoosiers actually have better offensive weapons than the Sooners. While Oklahoma's O Line should be an advantage, the Ohio State D Line is every bit their equal. This is also Riley's first "big" game and he's over matched against Meyer.

BYU Cougars +3 (-115), 1 unit: Hard to back the Cougars with the lack of offense they've shown in their first two games. However, they still have a good defense. The Holy War games are always close and when I can get the home team with a strong D and a FG in a game like this, I'll take it.

Stanford Cardinal +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: I was hoping the Trojans would win their opener easily so we could get a bigger number here. USC has the advantage under center as Chryst really hasn't faced a decent defense as a starter. However, the Cardinal have the better defense and a much stronger run game. Combine those things with a lot of time to prepare and I'll take the points in what should be a great game.
 

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Made a posting mistake last night. South Carolina is a 2 unit play. I realize that makes the write up a little flawed.
 

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9/16/2017 (10-13, -3.08)

Pittsburgh Panthers+12.5 (-110), 1 unit
Purdue Boilermakers +7 (-105), 1 unit
Florida Gators -4.5 (-110), 1 unit
Boston College Eagles +13.5 (-110), 1 unit
Colorado State Rams +29 (-110), 1 unit
Memphis Tigers +3 (-110), 1 unit
Wyoming Cowboys +14 (-110), 1 unit
Mississippi State Bulldogs +7 (-110), 1 unit
 

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