Archivist13's Twisted Handicapping

Archivist13 · Aug 25, 2017

I'm new here and figured I might as well jump right in. I have developed my own handicapping system that I am going to try out this year. I am using a calculation model based on certain factors that I have inputted. Probably not going to do very well, but at least it might provide a few chuckles. All my bets will be 1 unit. The following is the calculated score and spread.

Oregon St. 17
Colorado St. 34 (-17)

Hawaii 12
UMASS 20 (-8)

S. Florida 33 (-14)
San Jose St. 19

Rice 7
Stanford 29 (-22)

Bets placed:
Colorado St. -3.5
Rice +31

Shua12 · Aug 25, 2017

Hey, your method might be off. Your point totals are waaay low compared to the Vegas lines. I understand some variance but your scores are less than half of what the posted totals are

your "bets placed" should be on the UNDER if you believe in this method.

Archivist13 · Aug 25, 2017

Yeah, I know my totals are way low based on the posted lines. Not planning on using it for totals right yet, but will most likely add a couple more variables to adjust. Work in progress.

indiana · Aug 26, 2017

A/13......welcome to the RX CFB site, sure you will enjoy the cappers here.........good luck ........indy

Archivist13 · Aug 26, 2017

Thanks. Looking forward to it!

Archivist13 · Aug 26, 2017

Adding San Jose St. +21

Something seems fishy with this line. It has only moved 2 points and nearly everyone is on USF. USF is expected to make a statement, and I believe they will win comfortably, but not cover the spread. Over expectations and a long distance trip keep San Jose just within the point spread.

Archivist13 · Aug 30, 2017

YTD 2-1

08/31/17
Calculated score and spread

Florida Intl. 18 (-3)
Central Florida 15

New Mexico St. 12
Arizona St. 22 (-10)

Bets placed:
Florida Intl. +16.5
New Mexico St. +22

09/01/17
Calculated score and spread.

Navy 26 (-14)
Florida Atlantic 12

Boston College 17
N. Illinois 27 (-10)

Bets placed:
Navy -9
N. Illinois +4

Archivist13 · Aug 31, 2017

Wager added.
08/31/17
Calculated score and spread.

Ohio St. 40 (-9)
Indiana 31

Bet placed:
Indiana +20.5

Archivist13 · Sep 1, 2017

Updated YTD:
3-3

Fridays plays:
Navy -9
N. Illinois +4

Archivist13 · Sep 1, 2017

09/02/17
Calculated score and spread.

Ball St. 16 (-7)
Illinois 9
Wager: Ball St. +6.5

S. Carolina 18
NC St. 30 (-12)
Wager: NC St. -5

Troy 20
Boise St. 37 (-17)
Wager: Boise St. -9.5

Kentucky 28
S. Mississippi 30 (-2)
Wager: S. Miss +10.5

W. Michigan 30
USC 48 (-18)
Wager: W. Michigan +27

Appalachian St. 28
Georgia 34 (-6)
Wager: Appalachian St. +14.5

Miami OH 21 (-7)
Marshall 14
Wager: Miami OH +2.5

Georgia Sthrn 11
Auburn 39 (-28)
Wager: Georgia Sthrn. +34.5

Vandy 17
Middle Tenn St. 25 (-8)
Wager: Mid Tenn St. +3.5

UTEP 10
Oklahoma 47 (-37)
Wager: UTEP +43

Temple 29
Notre Dame 40 (-11)
Wager: Temple +18.5

Louisville 46 (-31)
Purdue 15
Wager: Louisville-25

Wager Summary:

Ball St. +6.5

NC St. -5

Boise St. -9.5

S. Mississippi +10.5

W. Michigan +27

Appalachian St. +14.5

Miami OH +2.5

Georgia Sthrn +34.5

Mid Tenn St. +3.5

UTEP +43

Temple +18.5

Louisville -25

Archivist13 · Sep 2, 2017

Updated record heading into Saturday games.

YTD 5-3

bostonfanbarca · Sep 2, 2017

good luck

Archivist13 · Sep 2, 2017

Thanks!

Archivist13 · Sep 3, 2017

Updated record following Saturday games.
10-10

Archivist13 · Sep 3, 2017

09/02/17
Calculated score and spread.

W. Virginia 30
Virginia Tech 34 (-4)
Wager: Virginia Tech -4.5

Archivist13 · Sep 4, 2017

Updated record following Sunday game.
11-10

09/04/17
Calculated score and spread.
Tennessee 28 (-5)
Georgia Tech 23
Wager: Tennessee -3

solrosenberg · Sep 4, 2017

Got a question if your numbers showed Va Tech winning by 4 why did you like them -4 1/2?
you had the WMU vs USC score damn near exact....

Archivist13 · Sep 4, 2017

I live in the DC. Area and was pretty sure Virginia Texh was going to have a close to home field advantage which would have have given them a couple extra points . My calculations weee based on a neutral site game. Basically I went with my hunch and it paid off.