BIZ Travers Day 2017

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Race 7 Ballerina

#4 By The Moon
#5 Carina Mia
#3 Paulassilverlining

Pretty chalky race, lets see what the tote looks like. BTM turns the tables on Paula today, key BTM in exactas/trifectas with the other 2 and add the #7 to your tri.

P3: 4,5/2,7,8,9/1,4

Race 8 H Allen Jerkens

#2 Takaful
#8 No Dozing
#9 American Anthem
#7 Coal Front

Takaful gets a weight break, and is poised for another big race. 5/1ML is solid value. No Dozing is the price play in the race, a bit slower than these but a very nice pattern which bodes well. The other 2 are plenty fast enough, but offer little value.

Takaful is the win bet, exacta boxes with the other 3. Key Takaful on top in trifectas also.

P3: 2,7,8,9/1,4/3,5,7

Race 9 Forego
#4 Divining Rod
#1 Stallwalkin Dude
#10 Drefong
#6 Mind Your Biscuits

DR and SD the clear value plays, plenty fast enough to win. The bottom 2 are must uses in exotic. Key the 1 and 4 in exactas and trifectas with the others. Win Bet Stallwalkin Dude

P3: 1,4/3,5,7/3,9,11

Race 10 Sword Dancer

#3 Sadler's Joy
#5 Money Multiplier
#7 Idaho

Sadler's Joy is the clear value, has a great pattern and should fire a big shot today. Key with the other 2 in exactas.

P3: 3,5,7/3,9,11/1,2,3

Race 11 Travers

#9 McCracken
#3 West Coast
#11 Gunnevara
#10 Irap
#4 Tapwrit

Wide open race so need a price. McCracken is the play at a solid 12/1 ML, he has a great pattern and should fire a big shot. West Coast is another that should fire, Baffert shippers back East have been firing huge. These are the 2 main contenders. If Gunnevara runs his best race he is right there at a huge price. Box these 3 in a 3 horse exacta box. Key McCracken and WC on top in trifectas over the other 4.

Race 12 Ballston Spa

#2 Roca Rojo
#3 Time And Motion
#1 Lady Eli.

Lady Eli is fast and classy but offers no value. Roca Rojo is the clear value play as she is plenty good enough off her best. Box woth the other 2

Enjoy the races and have a Great Day.

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

By The Moon wins a thriller at 5/1. Great start to the day and starts off the Pick 3 with a solid price.

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

PICK 4 Race 8

Leg 1:2, 8
Leg 2:1, 4
Leg 3:3, 5, 7
Leg 4:3, 9, 10, 11

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Tough beat with Takaful getting nailed late.

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Sadler's Joy $16 winner with the $58 exacta.

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Picked the wrong horse for the Travers win, but nailed the $357.50 exacta.

"If Gunnevara runs his best race he is right there at a huge price. Box these 3 in a 3 horse exacta box."

"Key McCracken and WC on top in trifectas over the other 4."

Each ticket costs $24 for a total of $48.

$1 tri $1122.50.

Nearly a $1500 return in the Travers.

Gravy · Aug 26, 2017

Biz said:
Picked the wrong horse for the Travers win, but nailed the $357.50 exacta.

"If Gunnevara runs his best race he is right there at a huge price. Box these 3 in a 3 horse exacta box."

"Key McCracken and WC on top in trifectas over the other 4."

Each ticket costs $24 for a total of $48.

$1 tri $1122.50.

Nearly a $1500 return in the Travers.

nice job Biz

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Race 7:
Winner $13 and exacta $78.50

Race 10:
Winner $16 and exacta $58

Race 11:
Exacta $357.50 and trifecta $1122.50.

Great day and we have a live P3 ticket with the 1,2 ending in the 12th.

$115 to the #1 and $536 to the #2.

eyeinthesky · Aug 26, 2017

Very nice capping, Biz. Congrats!

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Lets take the $115 Pick 3 on a $18 ticket to end our day at Saratoga, just an outstanding day at the windows.

If you just played win tickets for $20, exactas for $2, tri for $1, and P3/4 for a $1 you collected just shy of $2000.

Win: Cost $120, return $290. Net $170
Exacta: Cost $60, return $415.50. Net $355.50
Trifecta: Cost $66, return $1122.50. Net $1056.50
Pick 3: Cost $76, return $115. Net $39

Total cost for all bets: $322
Total Return: $1943

Net Profit: $1943 - $322 = $1621

The Travers Stakes made our day, with our longshot Gunnevara running a huge race to trigger a fantastic exacta and trifecta payout. I did not mention a superfecta play, but that would have alos hit as the trifecta ticket included every horse in the superfecta also.

I will have a Full Breeders' Cup analysis when that weekend rolls around.

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

eyeinthesky said:
Very nice capping, Biz. Congrats!

Mr Eyeinthesky, thank you very much. Was having a decent day and the Travers obviously made my day. Gunnevara running huge at a big price triggering big payouts.

Not happy I didn't mention playing a dime super, very cheap ticket returned $716. Just play the trifecta ticket and you hit it. Play it for a buck and cash for $7028. Grrrr.

Nevertheless a great day and I appreciate the kind words.

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Gravy,

Thanks to you also sir.

Saddlesore · Aug 26, 2017

popcorn-eatinggif Biz excellent work you definitely win the Best Handicapper Award....But my question is why you only show up for value races
and not just them silly claiming races...You would offer Great insight to the Forum and besides those Great Picks....Will you come here every weekend now
or continue to hide behind value races.....We Look Forward To Your Answer

eyeinthesky · Aug 26, 2017

Wish I had added Gunnevara to my exotics, Biz. Nice pick!

Thought the p4 in races 8-11 looked very chalky. Two fairly easy keys to start out and two obvious contenders in the last two legs:

1/10/3,5/3,5

I honestly thought the payout would be in the range of $75-$100 per $1 ticket and that didn't excite me so played it for $10 instead for a total of $40. The 1/10/3/3 combination paid me over $4,600.......unbelievable. Almost didn't bother playing because it looked so chalky but sure glad I did!

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

eyeinthesky said:
Wish I had added Gunnevara to my exotics, Biz. Nice pick!

Thought the p4 in races 8-11 looked very chalky. Two fairly easy keys to start out and two obvious contenders in the last two legs:

1/10/3,5/3,5

I honestly thought the payout would be in the range of $75-$100 per $1 ticket and that didn't excite me so played it for $10 instead for a total of $40. The 1/10/3/3 combination paid me over $4,600.......unbelievable. Almost didn't bother playing because it looked so chalky but sure glad I did!

Fantastic score!!

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Saddlesore said:
popcorn-eatinggif Biz excellent work you definitely win the Best Handicapper Award....But my question is why you only show up for value races
and not just them silly claiming races...You would offer Great insight to the Forum and besides those Great Picks....Will you come here every weekend now
or continue to hide behind value races.....We Look Forward To Your Answer

SS,

Several reasons why I don't show up more often.

- I have a daily handicapping service with many clients, so the majority of my time is spent handicapping games and sending them out.
- Saturdays are usually reserved for my wife, its the one day of the week we have the entire day together. So I have to pick my spots.
- Every once in awhile I will handicap an afternoon card or Friday afternoon card.

I will have a Full Breeders' Cup analysis when that rolls around. I have had some very good BC days, some of my biggest scores.

Lt1 · Aug 26, 2017

Great job Biz:toast:

Biz · Aug 26, 2017

Lt1 thanks buddy, it was a great day.

Biz · Aug 27, 2017

I did have a Pick 4 ticket that cost $24.

Puts the Net Profit at $1597.

BIZ Travers Day 2017

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