Early Betting Look For Week 1: All In On The State Of Oklahoma

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Early betting look for Week 1: All in on the state of Oklahoma
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
8/29/17

Every Monday throughout the college football season, an early betting look provides the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts. Join us for opening week as we buy a whole state and reveal the SEC program that appears quite stable but is actually slipping, as well as the one that could be in trouble as a double-digit favorite in to open the year. We'll also explore class warfare and coaches focused on self-improvement. And as always, we will bring you the wise guys' update on the national title race and a new handicapping tool each week.

Portfolio checkup

In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.

Buy:

The state of Oklahoma

The Battle of Bedlam isn't the last week of the season this year, but the matchup might be an elimination game for a pair of national contenders.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are an offensive juggernaut with vertical threat James Washington leading a killer receiving corps, a unit capable of making Mason Rudolph somehow look even better than he already does. Rudolph is Mike Gundy's first three-year starter at quarterback, and he leads Gundy's best team yet. Now 10 years removed from his famous speech as a 40-year-old, Gundy has ample resources to work with this season, thanks in no small part to program sugar daddy T. Boone Pickens. Gundy has spent wisely on cutting-edge analytics, sport science and marketing and recruiting tactics that have gradually turned the Cowboys organization into one of the best in the nation. The final pieces are now in place for a program ready for its first playoff-era turn at national prominence. Allocation of more scholarships to the defense has built depth in that platoon, and sophomore Justice Hill has returned the ground game to prior levels after a sharp two-year dip.

Oklahoma Sooners boss Lincoln Riley can't yet boast the coaching chops of either rival Gundy or predecessor Bob Stoops, but he's getting an assist in his first year. A good head coach earns a lot of his keep by developing the team's intangibles in the offseason, and by the time Riley took over in June, much of his toughest work was already done. Stoops left him a unified, player-led team that polices itself and is about as turn-key as it gets. Riley's existing relationship as offensive coordinator with field general Baker Mayfield also eases the transition. The latter will operate behind an offensive line that returns its top eight players. Like the rival Cowboys, the Sooners figure to ride a 40-plus points-per-game offense into championship contention.

Sell:

Florida Gators

It's hard to believe with just two campaigns in the books -- both of which led to division championships -- that Jim McElwain's act could already be wearing thin, but it is happening in Gainesville. Florida has been pretty much the same team this entire decade, equipped with a very good defense and an offense that lacks explosiveness, efficiency and identity. That's not enough for Gator fans, and McElwain has given them little reason to believe it's about to change. No longer able to "aw shucks" his way around the tough questions as smoothly as he did during the honeymoon phase (Coach, at what point does Antonio Callaway run out of chances? What exactly is your offensive philosophy, anyway?), Mac is stumbling out of camp still seeking answers at quarterback, and his roster has been thinned by scandal and suspensions.

The Gators have two SEC Championship Game appearances during the East division's darkest period, but those have come with a lot less program momentum than consecutive trips to Atlanta would usually imply. Buy-in is not at sufficient levels among players or fans, and this is a sinking ship.

Slate standout

Slate standout provides games that we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for out of the contest.

Appalachian State Mountaineers (+14.5) at Georgia Bulldogs

We're bullish on the Kirby Smart era, but this roster is still two good recruiting classes away from quality depth and competition at every position. Despite a high returning starter count, there are too many pieces fitting into new roles to expect the Dawgs to be one of those teams that looks in midseason form right out of the gate.

Appalachian State, though, is a fully-seasoned, veteran group that knows exactly who it is, free of any glaring weaknesses. This year's Mountaineers are the product of five years of building under Scott Satterfield since transitioning to the FBS level and their 20-scholarship increase in recruiting.

App State took Tennessee to overtime to open last year, and now, past lessons in hand, gets a second chance at a regional blueblood. The Mountaineers are coming with purpose and belief, and they will probably take every ounce of Georgia's A-game to get past them. Any signs of Georgia players letting their minds wander away from respecting the task at hand during the game week will point to getting serious about backing the 'dog to win outright.

Title shots

Title shots provides a sharp view of the national title picture, courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Eight teams opened at less than 20-1 to win the national title back in January. There are only five remaining.

National Title Odds
OPENING ODDS CURRENT ODDS
Alabama 3-1 5-2
Ohio State 8-1 3-1
USC 8-1 7-1
Florida State 8-1 8-1
Oklahoma 8-1 18-1

The first four teams in the betting order mirror the top four in both major polls. Oklahoma's price took a plunge without Bob Stoops, but the Sooners remain the fifth choice in Vegas.

Only six teams outside of that group have seen enough action to list at shorter prices than they did back in January:

National Title Odds
OPENING ODDS CURRENT ODDS
Penn State 25-1 20-1
Washington 30-1 20-1
Georgia 30-1 25-1
Wisconsin 40-1 20-1
Notre Dame 60-1 25-1
Stanford 60-1 50-1

We'd call Washington, Notre Dame and Stanford the legit 2017 dark horses, and Wisconsin and Georgia are the clear pretenders. As for the Nittany Lions...well, they are a bit hazy. Let's just come back to them later.

Handicapper's toolbox

Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.

Openers present coaches and scout teams with unique challenges of unfamiliarity.

We're extremely bullish on a Northwestern Wildcats squad that might be Pat Fitzgerald's best yet -- and we are even more pessimistic about the new regime at Nevada than we were about the last one. A go-with team that is facing one that we're looking to fade always has our attention, but with an offense that's more efficient than explosive, the Wildcats just aren't built to lay big weight. Fitz is just 2-9 ATS laying double digits in FBS nonconference games, and 0-5 when the number was 17 or more.

Furthermore, Northwestern is an open book to the Nevada Wolf Pack coaches, as Fitzgerald has kept the exact same staff intact for an FBS-high seven seasons. Nevada is led by a rookie head coach installing new systems on both sides of the ball. Northwestern will be adjusting on the fly initially.

Still, if our reads are right, this is a top-25 caliber team at home facing what might be one of the bottom-10 teams in the FBS. The usual difference in that scenario is easily more than 24 points. The end-around to capitalizing on the mismatch while ducking what is often a slow start by the favorite and avoiding asking a team to win too big is to wait and seek value during the game or at halftime. Northwestern's advantage will grow as the game wears on and the team settles in against Nevada's schemes and formations. A second-half play could easily have us investing in Northwestern's most productive possessions and attacking Nevada's least productive, all while laying considerably less than 24 for the game.

We've already seen the South Florida Bulls struggle early against a new San Jose State Spartans regime before roaring back to cover the second half number (but not quite the game number). Other favorites of similar setup, whose playbooks are no secret facing the mystery of first-time head coaches, include the North Carolina Tar Heels against Justin Wilcox and the California Bears, as well as the USC Trojans, hosting Tim Lester and his Western Michigan Broncos.

Chalk bits

Chalk bits will provide observations, issues, clues and questions from around each week's slate.

Alabama Crimson Tide's head coach Nick Saban is 7-0 in season-opening neutral-site games, covering all but two. Saban is 10-0 versus former assistants, covering all but two. The top-five clash with Jimbo Fisher's Florida State Seminoles squad in Atlanta checks both of those boxes, and if you're thinking about betting that this time will be different, you'd better have a good reason. We don't really have one, but here's something that should give those dismissing Florida State on the historical precedent of Saban's dominance in this situation some pause: Jimbo is bringing his absolute A-game.

Like Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, Fisher did an admirable job of self-evaluation after 2016 and rightly concluded that the head coach had allowed the team to gloss over some of the details that championship teams tend to diligently and constantly. From setting the tone in January to changes in the way he handled spring ball and fall camp, Fisher has done a better job preparing his Seminoles for a stage like this than in any season since his title run in 2013. Alabama's track record in this spot is unimpeachable, but for the first time in a while, the Seminoles' mojo might be on par with their talent, and we're giving them plenty of respect here.

In six games this decade versus in-state big boys Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane has allowed an average of nearly 55 points per game, surrendering at least 47 in each. In fact, the Hurricane has allowed 47 points per game in the rest of its games against power conference opposition in that span, including three meetings with Iowa State. Tulsa has the smallest enrollment among FBS schools, and there's a steep class differential versus Big 12 schools that shows loud and clear on the defensive side of the ball. Tulsa backers have to ask themselves if 17 points is really enough to fade that step up in class against what might well be one of the best teams in Oklahoma State history and one of the best offenses in Big 12 history -- especially on the road with a new quarterback making his first career start.

There's also a stark class difference between the Big Ten and the MAC, but when the oddsmakers say "not this week," the MAC has shown strong. Since 2008, Big Ten teams have been underdogs or single-digit favorites versus MAC teams 22 times. The MAC is 12-10 in those matchups, and 14-8 ATS. Sure, that's pretty sporty, but here's the catch for those eyeing the short price with the Ball State Cardinals on the road at the Illinois Fighting Illini this week: Twelve of those 14 covers were authored by the cream of the MAC, teams that won at least 10 games and a division title. The other two were at least six-win teams. A Ball State program with poor institutional and fan support and a mere 4.5-game season win total this year doesn't fit the mold of previous MAC teams that have cashed against the Big Ten without benefit of a double-digit spot.
 

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