Alabama ranks first in Week 1 Vegas ratings
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
8/30/17
Week 1 of the college football season brings the first issue of my weekly Vegas power ratings for 2017. Each week, I will provide my top 25 teams, along with teams that just missed the cut. I use nine sets of power ratings, but for this exercise, I will compare and contrast my ratings with both the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (Westgate is providing their ratings each Sunday night) and ESPN FPI all season long and supply the set that is closest to what Las Vegas uses.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (139.8 rating)
Alabama has never won the national title when entering the season No. 1 in the AP poll, but they do rank No. 1 in my power ratings. Westgate has them first overall, as well. Interestingly, FPI actually has them three points below Ohio State. Alabama would be favored over every team in the country at a neutral site.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (136.7)
Ohio State goes from just six returning starters in 2016 to a whopping 15 this year. They rank high in the ratings despite last season's Fiesta Bowl shutout loss to Clemson. These ratings have them a scant 0.1 points ahead of Florida State. Westgate has them No. 2 as well, while FPI rates them as the best team in the country. Right now Ohio State would be favored in every game on their schedule.
3. Florida State Seminoles (136.6)
Westgate has Florida State as the fourth-rated team, but this set of power ratings gives them a 0.1-point edge on USC for the No. 3 spot. Florida State loses just three lettermen from its defense and returns free safety Derwin James, who missed most of 2016. He was voted ESPN's top player in college football.
4. USC Trojans (136.5)
QB Sam Darnold is the favorite to win the Heisman, and he enters the season 9-1 as a starter. In the past four seasons that USC ranked in the preseason AP poll at No. 14 or higher, the Trojans have not finished in the top 20. In three of those seasons they were unranked at the end. FPI has the Trojans at No. 11, but Westgate has them third.
5. Oklahoma Sooners (135.4)
The Sooners were the clear-cut favorite for the Big 12 title coming out of the spring, but Bob Stoops retired, and there are still some questions about this team. They adjusted down some in my power ratings, but dropped to only No. 5, exactly where Westgate has them as well. The FPI power ratings have them at No. 4, a full 6.6 points better than USC.
6. Washington Huskies (135.3)
I have the Huskies up here at No. 6, while Westgate has them eighth in the nation. Tenths of a point separate some of the teams at the top of the ratings, so I'm sure our ratings are very close. Washington is the 14th most experienced team in the country and was in the playoff last season.
7. Clemson Tigers (135.2)
Clemson loses quarterback Deshaun Watson, running back Wayne Gallman, receiver Mike Williams and tight end Jordan Leggett, but the Tigers have the ACC's top offensive line and the nation's top defensive line. I have them at No. 7, as does both Westgate and FPI, making them the first unanimously ranked team. The Tigers might not be a 'dog in any game this year, facing their toughest foes at home.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (135.1)
It is tough for me to find a weakness in this deep squad, which ranks No. 12 in my experience chart. Both Westgate and FPI have them at No. 9, but the Nittany Lions are part of the "Elite Eight" in my ratings, as there is a two-point drop off from the top eight to No. 9.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (133.1)
The Badgers have lost an All-American-quality linebacker in Jack Cichy, along with a top backup outside linebacker, this August, but they still remain in the top 10. FPI has them at 10, and Westgate rates them at 11. Wisconsin joins Alabama, Ohio State and USC as the only Power 5 teams favored in every game right now.
10. LSU Tigers (132.3)
I have Auburn rated ahead of LSU in my main set of rankings, but my Vegas power ratings had LSU 0.3 points higher. I wondered about that, but Westgate confirmed it, as they have LSU rated sixth in the country and Auburn at No. 10. Five true SEC road games make for a tough schedule.
11. Auburn Tigers (132.0)
Auburn needs transfer QB Jarrett Stidham to live up to his preseason hype, unlike what happened to Jeremy Johnson back in 2015. FPI has bought in, as they have Auburn rated at No. 5, while Westgate has the Tigers at No. 10.
12. Stanford Cardinal (131.9)
Stanford is the only top-25 team to have already played a game, and they made a solid jump in the ratings with their dominant win over Rice. While Westgate still lists them at No. 17, they jumped up from No. 10 to No. 6 in the FPI ratings.
13. Miami Hurricanes (131.7)
Miami joined the ACC in 2004 and was expected to be a regular participant in the ACC title game. I think they'll get to that game this season -- for the first time. My ratings have them higher than Westgate (15) and FPI (18).
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (131.4)
With quarterback Mason Rudolph, running back Justice Hill and wide receiver James Washington all back, the offense will be explosive. Westgate has them at No. 13 mirroring my Vegas power ratings, but FPI has them down at No. 26.
15. Florida Gators (130.6)
I have the Gators as my top surprise team this year, and my main power ratings have them higher. Westgate has them at No. 19, and FPI registers them at No. 17.
16. Michigan Wolverines (129.7)
All eight Michigan position groups rank in my top units, but they are just No. 128 on my experience chart. My Vegas ratings match their rank at Westgate.
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (129.1)
The Irish were just 4-8 last year, but they outgained their opponents by 39 yards per game and outscored them by three points per game. They go from eight returning starters to 15 and are my selection for most improved team in the country. Westgate has them at 20th and FPI picks them at 19, so don't laugh when you see them in the top 25 in these ratings.
18. Kansas State Wildcats (128.9)
Coach Bill Snyder has one of his most experienced squads ever, and I consider the Wildcats a prime contender for the Big 12 crown. My ratings have them higher than Westgate (23) and FPI (30).
19. Georgia Bulldogs (127.5)
My plus/minus ratings have Georgia below Florida, but both Westgate (18) and FPI (13) have them higher than the Gators. These ratings say the Irish will be favored in their home game against Georgia in two weeks.
20. Louisville Cardinals (127.2)
Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson is back, but the Cardinals finished on a poor three-game run to end 2016. This is the team with the biggest difference between my Vegas ranking and that of Westgate, which has them at No. 12. FPI has the Cardinals at 15.
21. Virginia Tech Hokies (126.1)
FPI has the Hokies at No. 31 in their ratings, but my Vegas rating and Westgate both have them at No. 21. Quarterback is the main question mark, but they could be favored in 10 games this year.
22. Texas Longhorns (124.6)
Tom Herman usually gets the most out of the talent on hand, and he inherits an experienced team. Westgate actually has them up at No. 14, but my plus/minus ratings have a little more of a wait-and-see approach.
23. Tennessee Volunteers (124.4)
This team could be flying under the radar this year after disappointing so many last season. They are rated about the same in all three sets of power ratings that I looked at.
24. UCLA Bruins (123.6)
The Bruins disappointed last year at 4-8, but they return quarterback Josh Rosen, who missed half of last season. Both Westgate and FPI also have them in the top 25, which probably surprises you.
25. Washington State Cougars (123.5)
With Luke Falk back, this team will be dangerous. Once again, all three sources have them in the top 25.
Here are three teams within a point of the No. 25 team:
NC State Wolfpack (123.4) Texas A&M Aggies (123.3) TCU Horned Frogs (123.2)
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
8/30/17
Week 1 of the college football season brings the first issue of my weekly Vegas power ratings for 2017. Each week, I will provide my top 25 teams, along with teams that just missed the cut. I use nine sets of power ratings, but for this exercise, I will compare and contrast my ratings with both the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (Westgate is providing their ratings each Sunday night) and ESPN FPI all season long and supply the set that is closest to what Las Vegas uses.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (139.8 rating)
Alabama has never won the national title when entering the season No. 1 in the AP poll, but they do rank No. 1 in my power ratings. Westgate has them first overall, as well. Interestingly, FPI actually has them three points below Ohio State. Alabama would be favored over every team in the country at a neutral site.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (136.7)
Ohio State goes from just six returning starters in 2016 to a whopping 15 this year. They rank high in the ratings despite last season's Fiesta Bowl shutout loss to Clemson. These ratings have them a scant 0.1 points ahead of Florida State. Westgate has them No. 2 as well, while FPI rates them as the best team in the country. Right now Ohio State would be favored in every game on their schedule.
3. Florida State Seminoles (136.6)
Westgate has Florida State as the fourth-rated team, but this set of power ratings gives them a 0.1-point edge on USC for the No. 3 spot. Florida State loses just three lettermen from its defense and returns free safety Derwin James, who missed most of 2016. He was voted ESPN's top player in college football.
4. USC Trojans (136.5)
QB Sam Darnold is the favorite to win the Heisman, and he enters the season 9-1 as a starter. In the past four seasons that USC ranked in the preseason AP poll at No. 14 or higher, the Trojans have not finished in the top 20. In three of those seasons they were unranked at the end. FPI has the Trojans at No. 11, but Westgate has them third.
5. Oklahoma Sooners (135.4)
The Sooners were the clear-cut favorite for the Big 12 title coming out of the spring, but Bob Stoops retired, and there are still some questions about this team. They adjusted down some in my power ratings, but dropped to only No. 5, exactly where Westgate has them as well. The FPI power ratings have them at No. 4, a full 6.6 points better than USC.
6. Washington Huskies (135.3)
I have the Huskies up here at No. 6, while Westgate has them eighth in the nation. Tenths of a point separate some of the teams at the top of the ratings, so I'm sure our ratings are very close. Washington is the 14th most experienced team in the country and was in the playoff last season.
7. Clemson Tigers (135.2)
Clemson loses quarterback Deshaun Watson, running back Wayne Gallman, receiver Mike Williams and tight end Jordan Leggett, but the Tigers have the ACC's top offensive line and the nation's top defensive line. I have them at No. 7, as does both Westgate and FPI, making them the first unanimously ranked team. The Tigers might not be a 'dog in any game this year, facing their toughest foes at home.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (135.1)
It is tough for me to find a weakness in this deep squad, which ranks No. 12 in my experience chart. Both Westgate and FPI have them at No. 9, but the Nittany Lions are part of the "Elite Eight" in my ratings, as there is a two-point drop off from the top eight to No. 9.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (133.1)
The Badgers have lost an All-American-quality linebacker in Jack Cichy, along with a top backup outside linebacker, this August, but they still remain in the top 10. FPI has them at 10, and Westgate rates them at 11. Wisconsin joins Alabama, Ohio State and USC as the only Power 5 teams favored in every game right now.
10. LSU Tigers (132.3)
I have Auburn rated ahead of LSU in my main set of rankings, but my Vegas power ratings had LSU 0.3 points higher. I wondered about that, but Westgate confirmed it, as they have LSU rated sixth in the country and Auburn at No. 10. Five true SEC road games make for a tough schedule.
11. Auburn Tigers (132.0)
Auburn needs transfer QB Jarrett Stidham to live up to his preseason hype, unlike what happened to Jeremy Johnson back in 2015. FPI has bought in, as they have Auburn rated at No. 5, while Westgate has the Tigers at No. 10.
12. Stanford Cardinal (131.9)
Stanford is the only top-25 team to have already played a game, and they made a solid jump in the ratings with their dominant win over Rice. While Westgate still lists them at No. 17, they jumped up from No. 10 to No. 6 in the FPI ratings.
13. Miami Hurricanes (131.7)
Miami joined the ACC in 2004 and was expected to be a regular participant in the ACC title game. I think they'll get to that game this season -- for the first time. My ratings have them higher than Westgate (15) and FPI (18).
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (131.4)
With quarterback Mason Rudolph, running back Justice Hill and wide receiver James Washington all back, the offense will be explosive. Westgate has them at No. 13 mirroring my Vegas power ratings, but FPI has them down at No. 26.
15. Florida Gators (130.6)
I have the Gators as my top surprise team this year, and my main power ratings have them higher. Westgate has them at No. 19, and FPI registers them at No. 17.
16. Michigan Wolverines (129.7)
All eight Michigan position groups rank in my top units, but they are just No. 128 on my experience chart. My Vegas ratings match their rank at Westgate.
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (129.1)
The Irish were just 4-8 last year, but they outgained their opponents by 39 yards per game and outscored them by three points per game. They go from eight returning starters to 15 and are my selection for most improved team in the country. Westgate has them at 20th and FPI picks them at 19, so don't laugh when you see them in the top 25 in these ratings.
18. Kansas State Wildcats (128.9)
Coach Bill Snyder has one of his most experienced squads ever, and I consider the Wildcats a prime contender for the Big 12 crown. My ratings have them higher than Westgate (23) and FPI (30).
19. Georgia Bulldogs (127.5)
My plus/minus ratings have Georgia below Florida, but both Westgate (18) and FPI (13) have them higher than the Gators. These ratings say the Irish will be favored in their home game against Georgia in two weeks.
20. Louisville Cardinals (127.2)
Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson is back, but the Cardinals finished on a poor three-game run to end 2016. This is the team with the biggest difference between my Vegas ranking and that of Westgate, which has them at No. 12. FPI has the Cardinals at 15.
21. Virginia Tech Hokies (126.1)
FPI has the Hokies at No. 31 in their ratings, but my Vegas rating and Westgate both have them at No. 21. Quarterback is the main question mark, but they could be favored in 10 games this year.
22. Texas Longhorns (124.6)
Tom Herman usually gets the most out of the talent on hand, and he inherits an experienced team. Westgate actually has them up at No. 14, but my plus/minus ratings have a little more of a wait-and-see approach.
23. Tennessee Volunteers (124.4)
This team could be flying under the radar this year after disappointing so many last season. They are rated about the same in all three sets of power ratings that I looked at.
24. UCLA Bruins (123.6)
The Bruins disappointed last year at 4-8, but they return quarterback Josh Rosen, who missed half of last season. Both Westgate and FPI also have them in the top 25, which probably surprises you.
25. Washington State Cougars (123.5)
With Luke Falk back, this team will be dangerous. Once again, all three sources have them in the top 25.
Here are three teams within a point of the No. 25 team:
NC State Wolfpack (123.4) Texas A&M Aggies (123.3) TCU Horned Frogs (123.2)
