The six teams that can win the College Football Playoff
KC Joyner
ESPN INSIDER
8/31/17
Everybody starts the season undefeated. But the cruel reality of college football is that only a handful of those teams have a legitimate chance of winning the 2017-18 College Football Playoff.
Three of last year's playoff teams fit the bill this season. The one exception? Defending champion Clemson, with too many big losses on offense and a challenging schedule, falls just short. Alabama, Ohio State and Washington, plus Florida State, Penn State and USC, make the cut.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide return only 11 starters from last season's CFP finalist, a mark that rates tied for 56th among Power 5 teams and tied for last in the SEC. That personnel turnover rate might keep many clubs from CFP contender status, but the incredible volume of stockpiled talent at Alabama has it at or near the top of CFP contenders.
Thanks to recruiting, the return of a prolific young quarterback, an overpowering ground game and a relatively favorable schedule, Nick Saban's squad could easily return to the College Football Playoff for a fourth consecutive year.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has Alabama ranked second in the nation and projects the Crimson Tide to finish the season with an 11-2 record. It also projects Alabama as having a 48.9 percent chance of winning the SEC. That combination of achievements might be enough to put the Crimson Tide into the CFP, but this club definitely has the talent to outplay that projection by a game. If that happens, Alabama will be assured of making its fourth straight CFP appearance.
Click here for a full breakdown of why Alabama should make the playoff yet again.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles won 10 or more games for the fifth consecutive season last year, but they fell a few steps short of making a return trip to the CFP. That could change in 2017 because they have one of the most talented rosters in college football.
Considering the Seminoles' elite recruiting and returning talent -- including QB Deondre Francois, a group of big-play receivers and a talented secondary featuring S Derwin James and CB Tarvarus McFadden -- Jimbo Fisher's squad has the ingredients to make a deep run.
Florida State's schedule includes a neutral-site matchup against Alabama, a Death Valley road trip at Clemson and a Ben Hill Griffin Stadium matchup against archrival Florida. That leaves little margin for error, but the Seminoles are so talented that FPI indicates they still have a 42.9 percent chance of winning the ACC. If Florida State wins the conference and goes 2-1 in that trio of tough matchups, it will almost certainly land a CFP berth.
Click here for a full breakdown on why Florida State is a national title contender again this year.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Last year the Buckeyes became the first team to land a spot in the CFP without winning a conference title. They likely won't have to worry about vaulting that hurdle this season, however, as the Buckeyes are so stacked with talented players that they are the overwhelming Big Ten favorite and a near lock to earn a CFP berth again.
The key factors contributing to Ohio State's likelihood of returning to the playoff are their dominance on both the offensive and defensive lines, the potential for a shutdown corner in Denzel Ward, the return of J.T. Barrett and a very favorable schedule.
Ohio State ranks first in the FPI and is projected to finish the season with a 12-1 record. The Buckeyes also have a 70.9 percent projected chance to win the Big Ten, which is the largest projected conference win percentage in the nation. Add that to a 35 percent chance of winning out, a mark that is overwhelmingly the highest in the nation, and it should lead to a second consecutive CFP berth for the Buckeyes.
Click here for a full breakdown on why Ohio State is a national title contender again this year.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions are the defending Big Ten champions for the first time since 2008. That championship did not get the Nittany Lions a CFP berth last year despite Penn State's having defeated Ohio State for the Big Ten East Division title.
Despite a tough midseason schedule, James Franklin's crew can find itself in the playoff thanks to the Big Ten's top quarterback in Trace McSorley, a dominant running back in Saquon Barkley, elite special teams and strong depth on defense to offset some key losses.
The FPI currently ranks Penn State eighth in the nation and projects the Nittany Lions to go 10-2 this season. That would not be enough to land a CFP spot, but if Penn State can pull off the upset over Ohio State it has every other element in place to be a playoff team in 2017.
Click here for a full breakdown on why Penn State is a national title contender again this year.
USC Trojans
Last year, the Trojans won their first Rose Bowl since the Pete Carroll era and landed a No. 3 ranking in the season-ending Associated Press poll.
That performance set a high bar for USC, but there are multiple reasons the 2017 Trojans will be able to do even better than last year's squad and earn a spot in the CFP.
Clay Helton's squad is by far the top recruiting juggernaut in the Pac-12, and combining that influx of talent with Sam Darnold, arguably the best QB in college football, plus impact receivers and a top RB in Ronald Jones II, is a recipe for long-term success.
The Huskies rank higher than USC in the FPI and likely will start the season ranked higher in the polls, but don't forget that this system also says USC has the highest-percentage chance of winning the Pac-12 (35.7). If the Trojans win the conference with no more than two losses, the CFP committee would be hard-pressed to deny this team a spot in the 2017 playoff.
Click here for a full breakdown on why USC is a national title contender again this year.
Washington Huskies
Last season, Washington won the Pac-12 championship and earned a place in the CFP. The 2016 Huskies were arguably one of the top five teams in the program's history.
With so much returning talent -- including the best quarterback the Huskies have ever had -- don't discount Washington's chances at a CFP repeat appearance.
With Jake Browning throwing to Dante Pettis, a top 1-2 rushing combination of Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman, plus a favorable schedule, Chris Petersen's squad could get a shot at redemption in this season's playoff.
The FPI projects Washington to go 10-2 in the regular season. That record, plus a victory in the Pac-12 title game, could be enough to vault the Huskies to the CFP. The path is there to lose only one contest and make it into the postseason for the second consecutive campaign.
KC Joyner
ESPN INSIDER
8/31/17
Everybody starts the season undefeated. But the cruel reality of college football is that only a handful of those teams have a legitimate chance of winning the 2017-18 College Football Playoff.
Three of last year's playoff teams fit the bill this season. The one exception? Defending champion Clemson, with too many big losses on offense and a challenging schedule, falls just short. Alabama, Ohio State and Washington, plus Florida State, Penn State and USC, make the cut.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide return only 11 starters from last season's CFP finalist, a mark that rates tied for 56th among Power 5 teams and tied for last in the SEC. That personnel turnover rate might keep many clubs from CFP contender status, but the incredible volume of stockpiled talent at Alabama has it at or near the top of CFP contenders.
Thanks to recruiting, the return of a prolific young quarterback, an overpowering ground game and a relatively favorable schedule, Nick Saban's squad could easily return to the College Football Playoff for a fourth consecutive year.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has Alabama ranked second in the nation and projects the Crimson Tide to finish the season with an 11-2 record. It also projects Alabama as having a 48.9 percent chance of winning the SEC. That combination of achievements might be enough to put the Crimson Tide into the CFP, but this club definitely has the talent to outplay that projection by a game. If that happens, Alabama will be assured of making its fourth straight CFP appearance.
Click here for a full breakdown of why Alabama should make the playoff yet again.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles won 10 or more games for the fifth consecutive season last year, but they fell a few steps short of making a return trip to the CFP. That could change in 2017 because they have one of the most talented rosters in college football.
Considering the Seminoles' elite recruiting and returning talent -- including QB Deondre Francois, a group of big-play receivers and a talented secondary featuring S Derwin James and CB Tarvarus McFadden -- Jimbo Fisher's squad has the ingredients to make a deep run.
Florida State's schedule includes a neutral-site matchup against Alabama, a Death Valley road trip at Clemson and a Ben Hill Griffin Stadium matchup against archrival Florida. That leaves little margin for error, but the Seminoles are so talented that FPI indicates they still have a 42.9 percent chance of winning the ACC. If Florida State wins the conference and goes 2-1 in that trio of tough matchups, it will almost certainly land a CFP berth.
Click here for a full breakdown on why Florida State is a national title contender again this year.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Last year the Buckeyes became the first team to land a spot in the CFP without winning a conference title. They likely won't have to worry about vaulting that hurdle this season, however, as the Buckeyes are so stacked with talented players that they are the overwhelming Big Ten favorite and a near lock to earn a CFP berth again.
The key factors contributing to Ohio State's likelihood of returning to the playoff are their dominance on both the offensive and defensive lines, the potential for a shutdown corner in Denzel Ward, the return of J.T. Barrett and a very favorable schedule.
Ohio State ranks first in the FPI and is projected to finish the season with a 12-1 record. The Buckeyes also have a 70.9 percent projected chance to win the Big Ten, which is the largest projected conference win percentage in the nation. Add that to a 35 percent chance of winning out, a mark that is overwhelmingly the highest in the nation, and it should lead to a second consecutive CFP berth for the Buckeyes.
Click here for a full breakdown on why Ohio State is a national title contender again this year.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions are the defending Big Ten champions for the first time since 2008. That championship did not get the Nittany Lions a CFP berth last year despite Penn State's having defeated Ohio State for the Big Ten East Division title.
Despite a tough midseason schedule, James Franklin's crew can find itself in the playoff thanks to the Big Ten's top quarterback in Trace McSorley, a dominant running back in Saquon Barkley, elite special teams and strong depth on defense to offset some key losses.
The FPI currently ranks Penn State eighth in the nation and projects the Nittany Lions to go 10-2 this season. That would not be enough to land a CFP spot, but if Penn State can pull off the upset over Ohio State it has every other element in place to be a playoff team in 2017.
Click here for a full breakdown on why Penn State is a national title contender again this year.
USC Trojans
Last year, the Trojans won their first Rose Bowl since the Pete Carroll era and landed a No. 3 ranking in the season-ending Associated Press poll.
That performance set a high bar for USC, but there are multiple reasons the 2017 Trojans will be able to do even better than last year's squad and earn a spot in the CFP.
Clay Helton's squad is by far the top recruiting juggernaut in the Pac-12, and combining that influx of talent with Sam Darnold, arguably the best QB in college football, plus impact receivers and a top RB in Ronald Jones II, is a recipe for long-term success.
The Huskies rank higher than USC in the FPI and likely will start the season ranked higher in the polls, but don't forget that this system also says USC has the highest-percentage chance of winning the Pac-12 (35.7). If the Trojans win the conference with no more than two losses, the CFP committee would be hard-pressed to deny this team a spot in the 2017 playoff.
Click here for a full breakdown on why USC is a national title contender again this year.
Washington Huskies
Last season, Washington won the Pac-12 championship and earned a place in the CFP. The 2016 Huskies were arguably one of the top five teams in the program's history.
With so much returning talent -- including the best quarterback the Huskies have ever had -- don't discount Washington's chances at a CFP repeat appearance.
With Jake Browning throwing to Dante Pettis, a top 1-2 rushing combination of Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman, plus a favorable schedule, Chris Petersen's squad could get a shot at redemption in this season's playoff.
The FPI projects Washington to go 10-2 in the regular season. That record, plus a victory in the Pac-12 title game, could be enough to vault the Huskies to the CFP. The path is there to lose only one contest and make it into the postseason for the second consecutive campaign.
