The QB Barometer: Who's under the most pressure to start the season?
Mike Sando
ESPN INSIDER
9/1/17
With Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season fast approaching, we turn our attention to eight quarterbacks facing the most pressure to perform well.
1. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars already benched Bortles briefly this summer, an indication the 2014 first-round pick will not have a free pass in his fourth season. Jacksonville does not have a long-term alternative on its roster, but you can bet new Jaguars football boss Tom Coughlin will seek one after the season if Bortles falters.
Jacksonville, despite having picked up Bortles' fifth-year option for 2018, can extricate itself from the contract in the absence of a serious injury.
"I don't know if Bortles is ever going to throw it well enough," a former GM said before training camp opened. "When the season ends, I think they will be looking for a new quarterback."
2. Mike Glennon, Chicago Bears
Glennon showed enough during the Bears' third exhibition game for coach John Fox to credibly name him the starter for Week 1. This is still a fluid situation.
If Glennon plays well and the Bears contend in the NFC North with him in the lineup, Chicago could conceivably wait until next season before turning to rookie Mitchell Trubisky, but all parties know Trubisky is going to start eventually.
"I don't know if I see Glennon tearing it up there with the weapons they have, which are not that great," a personnel director said. "I think they are going to run the s--- out of the ball with Jordan Howard and not put too much on Glennon's shoulders, and then they are going to go to their young guy."
3. Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos
GM John Elway has championship expectations for the Broncos -- if only Siemian can play efficiently enough for Denver to win big with its defense leading the way. Siemian showed signs he could do that last season, but his play deteriorated behind an offensive line that could not protect him nearly well enough.
"When he felt like he was in the pocket and he was invincible and he had not played enough to get the crap beat out of him, then I think he was just throwing the ball around like nobody's business, like he was playing flag football," a personnel director said. "But then reality set in, he started taking shots and getting beat up, and he could not overcome all the physical stuff."
There have been scant indications yet that 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch is ready to provide an upgrade, but that doesn't assure anything for Siemian.
"I think he is a Tier 3 guy, a legitimate starter who needs the defense and running game to be OK," a defensive coach said. "I didn't think the game was too big for him. Not only did he just run his team, but he made plays as a rookie, where he was the difference-maker in the game."
4. Tom Savage, Houston Texans
Savage would ideally play well enough for the Texans to bring along rookie Deshaun Watson at their own pace. There is not much evidence to suggest Savage can play well consistently or even play consistently. Injuries limited his opportunities early during his college career and in each of the past two seasons with Houston.
"I'd give him maybe not even a game or two before Watson is in there," a personnel director said.
Not everyone is down on Savage, however.
"Now, if you just looked at him from a talent -- throw, run -- type of breakdowns, I think you would probably downgrade him a little bit," another personnel director said, "but you have to look at the whole picture. I think he is going to be a good scheme fit for Bill O'Brien and he will be the best version of himself."
5. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are looking to reestablish themselves in Los Angeles, which cannot fully happen without at least some star power at quarterback. Goff did not look the part in 2016 while going 0-7 as a starter in an exceedingly difficult situation, creating immediate pressure on him to finally win a start, at least.
It's not a stretch to think Goff's future as the undisputed starter in Los Angeles hinges on him developing into a viable player this season, despite the fact that many coaches and evaluators thought Goff would need time to assimilate from a college system that did not necessarily prepare him well. That timeline is accelerated in the apparent absence of a viable alternative.
"He had a perfect bad storm," an offensive coordinator said. "Wrong plays, unstable coaching staffs, probably going to change staffs a couple more times before he gets any good, the whole 'Hard Knocks' thing. It is hard to be a leader of the team in a town where all that is going on. I think he is a nice kid. Some guys just don't have it, whatever 'it' is. He is missing something."
That was the impression Goff left as a rookie. The Rams will try to help him with better scheming and, hopefully, a better ground game.
"I think he will play better," another personnel director said, "but he will never play like the first pick in the draft. I don't think he has that type of talent."
6. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
The Bills' new coach and GM inherited Taylor, re-upped with him and will spend the season determining whether to build around him in the longer term. Does Taylor fit the offense Buffalo wants to run ultimately? Will he continue to develop into a well-rounded player? What is his ceiling? The restructured contract Taylor signed gives Buffalo a relatively easy out after this season.
"I like him," a pro personnel director said. "I just don't see the consistent performer. I don't think he shows up at critical times. This may be the best opportunity for him to have a great year with the new staff. I think he has to become more well-rounded. I just haven't seen it yet."
The concussion Taylor suffered in Week 3 of the preseason could give rookie fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman a chance to start the opener.
7. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs plan for Smith to remain their starter in 2017 at least, but their bold move to trade up and draft Patrick Mahomes II put Smith on notice entering his 13th season.
An injury or stretch of poor performances could open the door for Mahomes. Smith lived through such an experience with San Francisco in 2012, when an injury cleared the way for Colin Kaepernick. There could be less pressure on Smith than there is a simple realization that he's down to his final year or two as the Chiefs' starter.
"I don't think Andy Reid would put that guy [Mahomes] out there unless he is ready," a personnel director said. "Mahomes is a talented guy who can sling it all over the place, but it will be some time before he's ready, and you have to plan for it. Alex Smith is still a good football player."
8. Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings
Every quarterback ever would love to experience the kind of pressure Bradford is facing. Not yet 30 years old, Bradford will pass the $100 million mark in career earnings this season while playing for a team unlikely to find an obviously better alternative. A rough season or another serious injury could leave Bradford on the outside, but for now, he's in prime position to earn another lucrative deal.
"He is an accurate thrower and he does a good job taking care of the ball, but they don't do anything where it is stressed," a defensive coordinator said. "He doesn't throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field, hardly."
Not listed: Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, who are seen as backups even though they are getting the chance to start this year; Jay Cutler, who should feel no pressure after Miami called him out of retirement; Carson Palmer, who seems to be year-to-year at this point; and Andy Dalton, who seems safe in Cincy even though the Bengals have reached the point in his deal when they could go another direction without incurring salary-cap pain.
Mike Sando
ESPN INSIDER
9/1/17
With Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season fast approaching, we turn our attention to eight quarterbacks facing the most pressure to perform well.
1. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars already benched Bortles briefly this summer, an indication the 2014 first-round pick will not have a free pass in his fourth season. Jacksonville does not have a long-term alternative on its roster, but you can bet new Jaguars football boss Tom Coughlin will seek one after the season if Bortles falters.
Jacksonville, despite having picked up Bortles' fifth-year option for 2018, can extricate itself from the contract in the absence of a serious injury.
"I don't know if Bortles is ever going to throw it well enough," a former GM said before training camp opened. "When the season ends, I think they will be looking for a new quarterback."
2. Mike Glennon, Chicago Bears
Glennon showed enough during the Bears' third exhibition game for coach John Fox to credibly name him the starter for Week 1. This is still a fluid situation.
If Glennon plays well and the Bears contend in the NFC North with him in the lineup, Chicago could conceivably wait until next season before turning to rookie Mitchell Trubisky, but all parties know Trubisky is going to start eventually.
"I don't know if I see Glennon tearing it up there with the weapons they have, which are not that great," a personnel director said. "I think they are going to run the s--- out of the ball with Jordan Howard and not put too much on Glennon's shoulders, and then they are going to go to their young guy."
3. Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos
GM John Elway has championship expectations for the Broncos -- if only Siemian can play efficiently enough for Denver to win big with its defense leading the way. Siemian showed signs he could do that last season, but his play deteriorated behind an offensive line that could not protect him nearly well enough.
"When he felt like he was in the pocket and he was invincible and he had not played enough to get the crap beat out of him, then I think he was just throwing the ball around like nobody's business, like he was playing flag football," a personnel director said. "But then reality set in, he started taking shots and getting beat up, and he could not overcome all the physical stuff."
There have been scant indications yet that 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch is ready to provide an upgrade, but that doesn't assure anything for Siemian.
"I think he is a Tier 3 guy, a legitimate starter who needs the defense and running game to be OK," a defensive coach said. "I didn't think the game was too big for him. Not only did he just run his team, but he made plays as a rookie, where he was the difference-maker in the game."
4. Tom Savage, Houston Texans
Savage would ideally play well enough for the Texans to bring along rookie Deshaun Watson at their own pace. There is not much evidence to suggest Savage can play well consistently or even play consistently. Injuries limited his opportunities early during his college career and in each of the past two seasons with Houston.
"I'd give him maybe not even a game or two before Watson is in there," a personnel director said.
Not everyone is down on Savage, however.
"Now, if you just looked at him from a talent -- throw, run -- type of breakdowns, I think you would probably downgrade him a little bit," another personnel director said, "but you have to look at the whole picture. I think he is going to be a good scheme fit for Bill O'Brien and he will be the best version of himself."
5. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are looking to reestablish themselves in Los Angeles, which cannot fully happen without at least some star power at quarterback. Goff did not look the part in 2016 while going 0-7 as a starter in an exceedingly difficult situation, creating immediate pressure on him to finally win a start, at least.
It's not a stretch to think Goff's future as the undisputed starter in Los Angeles hinges on him developing into a viable player this season, despite the fact that many coaches and evaluators thought Goff would need time to assimilate from a college system that did not necessarily prepare him well. That timeline is accelerated in the apparent absence of a viable alternative.
"He had a perfect bad storm," an offensive coordinator said. "Wrong plays, unstable coaching staffs, probably going to change staffs a couple more times before he gets any good, the whole 'Hard Knocks' thing. It is hard to be a leader of the team in a town where all that is going on. I think he is a nice kid. Some guys just don't have it, whatever 'it' is. He is missing something."
That was the impression Goff left as a rookie. The Rams will try to help him with better scheming and, hopefully, a better ground game.
"I think he will play better," another personnel director said, "but he will never play like the first pick in the draft. I don't think he has that type of talent."
6. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
The Bills' new coach and GM inherited Taylor, re-upped with him and will spend the season determining whether to build around him in the longer term. Does Taylor fit the offense Buffalo wants to run ultimately? Will he continue to develop into a well-rounded player? What is his ceiling? The restructured contract Taylor signed gives Buffalo a relatively easy out after this season.
"I like him," a pro personnel director said. "I just don't see the consistent performer. I don't think he shows up at critical times. This may be the best opportunity for him to have a great year with the new staff. I think he has to become more well-rounded. I just haven't seen it yet."
The concussion Taylor suffered in Week 3 of the preseason could give rookie fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman a chance to start the opener.
7. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs plan for Smith to remain their starter in 2017 at least, but their bold move to trade up and draft Patrick Mahomes II put Smith on notice entering his 13th season.
An injury or stretch of poor performances could open the door for Mahomes. Smith lived through such an experience with San Francisco in 2012, when an injury cleared the way for Colin Kaepernick. There could be less pressure on Smith than there is a simple realization that he's down to his final year or two as the Chiefs' starter.
"I don't think Andy Reid would put that guy [Mahomes] out there unless he is ready," a personnel director said. "Mahomes is a talented guy who can sling it all over the place, but it will be some time before he's ready, and you have to plan for it. Alex Smith is still a good football player."
8. Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings
Every quarterback ever would love to experience the kind of pressure Bradford is facing. Not yet 30 years old, Bradford will pass the $100 million mark in career earnings this season while playing for a team unlikely to find an obviously better alternative. A rough season or another serious injury could leave Bradford on the outside, but for now, he's in prime position to earn another lucrative deal.
"He is an accurate thrower and he does a good job taking care of the ball, but they don't do anything where it is stressed," a defensive coordinator said. "He doesn't throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field, hardly."
Not listed: Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, who are seen as backups even though they are getting the chance to start this year; Jay Cutler, who should feel no pressure after Miami called him out of retirement; Carson Palmer, who seems to be year-to-year at this point; and Andy Dalton, who seems safe in Cincy even though the Bengals have reached the point in his deal when they could go another direction without incurring salary-cap pain.
