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Thread: Chonce NFL Picks 2017-18 (1)

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  1. #26  
    RX Senior
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Respectfully, I do not think AP motivation either way is a factor in this game...
    Sorry I wasn't able to respond sooner but I agree. AP is just too buried behind a better a RB to have a major impact. If Ingram gets hurt we will see if AP is washed up or not. I am a believer that RBs age quickly and while AP has broken the laws of physics by returning so well and fast from an injury, I just don't see a lot of value in a back of his age, short of leadership (but he does't have that).

    Lynch in LA will be a good test case. HE is rested, but old and rusty. Looked OK with limited usage but didn't score in Tenn. I am not bullish on Lynch, but he is a good situational weapon.

    Anyway, pretty good week for me as I hit both my 2 unit plays and am

    YTD: 6-3 + 4.65 units

    Wins:

    NE OVER -1 unit
    Jax 2nd half TT OVER 7 2 units
    PHI PK - 1 unit
    LAR -4 - 2 units
    Dall - 4 1 unit
    Minn - 4 1 unit

    Losses:

    Tenn - 1.2 units
    SF - 1.1 unit
    Cin -1.05 units
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  2. #27  
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    Wow, just saw the NE line is up to -7 at 5 Dimes. I should've bet more at 4.5. I could try and play a middle, but I will probably stay put. If the line was still hovering around 5 I would've bought it down to 4.5 to make it a 2-unit bet. I don't know if I would lay 6.5 or 7 with as much confidence as I pegged it as a 5.5 line, but I suspect the line will come down a bit. This is probably an overreaction to NO woeful game last night.

    Anyway, if anyone has a suggestion: should I keep posting on this thread (which over 17 weeks can become pretty damn long, accounting for musings like this) or as i did last year, a new thread each week as I did last year? I do always link to previous week to keep a chain accessible make it easier to tally record, make corrections etc...Thoughts?

    My lean is the latter, as I find myself annoyed when I have to fiddle through 20 pages of a single thread at any one time and in the NFL and 8-day old post is worthless aside from data collection (which is arguably just as easy with the links each week since it will take me a shorter thread with easier access to final YTD standings, plays etc...Plus I have been winning for the last year and am a little superstitious (which is absurd)
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  3. #28  
    RX Senior Vituperate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Respectfully, I do not think AP motivation either way is a factor in this game...
    And you proved to be right. AP just playing out his days. Sigh.
    "Is it wrong to gamble, or only to lose?"
    ---Sky Masterson
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  4. #29  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate View Post
    And you proved to be right. AP just playing out his days. Sigh.
    I believe he still has lot of gas in him but just not to use it in this game. Look for him around week 5 or 6 to move on the chain for NO.
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