Early betting look for Week 2: Jump on UCF bandwagon
William Harris
ESPN INSIDER
9/4/17
Every Monday throughout the college football season, an early betting look provides the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts. Join us for Week 2 as we tell you which position groups hold the key to the big Oklahoma-Ohio State clash and which in-state rivalry has a widening talent gap. We'll also touch on road warrior coaches and Nick Saban trends you can set your watch to, plus profile an ACC program in decline amidst stiffening competition in its division and zoom out for the big picture view on one of the weekend's biggest national matchups.
Portfolio checkup
In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy:
Central Florida Knights
An opening night rout of Florida International showcased how well this team can pitch and catch down the field. Unfortunately, sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton still has major ball security issues, but he showed improved accuracy and appears poised to take a big step forward in 2017 for what should be an increasingly explosive attack. Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander is one of the top assistants in the league, and he has All-America candidate Shaquem Griffin leading what might be the league's top unit. Head coach Scott Frost is an offensive guy, but learned under masters Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh and Chip Kelly, and does a great job setting a physical, run-and-hit tone for the whole program. Memphis can throw and catch, too, and will test the Knights' weakness, a restaffed secondary. Win or lose this week you want to be buying Frost's bunch this year and beyond.
Sell:
North Carolina Tar Heels
Some offensive-oriented head coaches are able to set a program-wide tone of physicality and toughness that helps the other side of the ball build the mentality it needs to play winning defense. Others aren't as successful at that. When Larry Fedora landed Gene Chizik as his defensive coordinator, the Tar Heels were coming off a season in which the defense allowed nearly 40 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. In each of Chizik's two years, the unit allowed under 25 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. We expect the defense to take a big step back now that Chizik has stepped away from coaching to spend more time with family, and that's bad news for a team also replacing a first-rounder at quarterback, along with the top three backs, three of the top four receivers and a pair of all-ACC linemen. This is a rebuilding year for Carolina. The longer-term outlook isn't that rosy, either, as this is a weak staff by ACC standards and the Coastal Division has toughened considerably with the additions of proven coaching winners Mark Richt, Justin Fuente and and Bronco Mendenhall.
Slate standout
Slate standout provides games that we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for out of the contest.
Oklahoma at Ohio State (-7)
Last year it was evident that Ohio State had more overall talent on the field than Oklahoma, and this year the Buckeyes also enjoy home field and an apparent coaching mismatch between future Hall of Famer Urban Meyer and newbie Lincoln Riley. Still, the Bucks showed enough cause for concern in the opener to suggest Oklahoma has at least a chance to keep it a lot closer than last year's three-score margin. What do the Sooners have to do to put forth a better showing?
Indiana couldn't run the ball on Ohio State and couldn't really protect, though it didn't matter for three quarters because Hoosiers quarterback Richard Lagow played pitch-and-catch with his excellent receivers so well. The Buckeyes' back end was a sieve, and rates as the major concern on this year's squad. Oklahoma has a stud escape artist at quarterback and one of the nation's best offensive lines, so the Sooners figure to make the Ohio State secondary cover long and hard all night on both the called play and the scramble. But the visitor is replacing its top two wideouts, plus 50 catches from departed running backs. The Oklahoma pass-catchers might have as much raw upside, but right now this group is not as good as Indiana's. How the newcomers fare complementing tight end Mark Andrews down the field versus the struggling Ohio State defensive backfield could determine the outcome. We'll be watching to see how the week's practices unfold for the perimeter players and what the coaches' updated confidence levels in those groups are, because which of Oklahoma's inexperienced wideouts or Ohio State's greenish secondary makes the most plays downfield will decide whether Oklahoma has a shot at a huge road win.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Teams don't oppose each other; organizations do.
Our outlook on Kirby Smart's Georgia program is and has been one of general optimism, but the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team. We're also bullish on a 2017 Notre Dame rebound, and detailed some of the reasons Brian Kelly's Irish haven't been able to sustain national relevance yet in last week's preseason betting guide. For all the setbacks Notre Dame has had in Kelly's eight years in South Bend, and despite two new coordinators in 2017, this is a more mature organization that is closer to the finished product envisioned when the head coach took over than Georgia is in Year 2 under Smart. The 41-year old's Year 1 nonconference resume includes hard-fought wins over North Carolina and TCU along with a narrow loss to Georgia Tech, none of which were in the opponent's stadium and none of which involved facing the kind of talent that Notre Dame has collected. Even if you think Georgia's roster is ahead of schedule, or don't believe that Notre Dame will be that resurgent this year, you should be asking whether you're sure that the 30,000-foot view agrees that this Georgia program is quite ready to take to the road and win an intersectional game of this magnitude.
Chalk bits
Chalk bits will provide observations, issues, clues and questions from around each week's slate.
Nick Saban is now 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in season-opening neutral-site games. Just as reliable is Alabama's performance in its Week 2 follow-ups. The Tide are 0-6 ATS (with one game called early due to weather) in the game after the previous seven neutral-site openers of the Saban era. All but one of those games (a road date at Texas A&M in 2013) involved spreads of at least four touchdowns versus Group of 5 conference teams, just like this week's tilt with Fresno State.
Travel presents challenges and distractions, and some coaches, like former Texas boss Mack Brown, really know how to handle a team on the road. Richt is one of those guys. He owns a 51-18 road record and covered eight of his last 10 turns as a nonconference road favorite. We're neither enamored with Miami's chances of relevance this year nor lacking in respect for what Arkansas State brings to the table, but Richt's skill in handling these kind of games (see last year's drubbing of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina) is a factor.
Utah has not lost to BYU since the Pac-12 announced the addition of Utah and Colorado in June of 2010. That's six straight wins for the Utes, and it's not an accident. The coaches have noted for years that major conference membership has opened doors to a whole different class of players, and those claims are reflected in the recruiting rankings. The talent gap between these Beehive State rivals is swelling. BYU has other problems, too, having managed just 19 first downs in two games thus far. The Cougars do not have the playmakers at the offensive skill positions that the team has fielded the past few years. They are also coming off a late Saturday night game nearly 2,000 miles away, while Utah played its opener Thursday and has the advantage of extra rest.
Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez have each helmed their Cactus State programs for six years now, and save Arizona's Fiesta Bowl date with Boise State in 2015, neither regime has played a competitively priced game against a team from a Group of 5 conference. Now both find themselves in near-pick 'em home games with such teams. The Territorial Cup rivals were picked to bring up the rear in the Pac-12 South division by the league's media, but each has multiple proven playmakers back on offense and returns at least a half dozen starters on defense. Opposing Houston and San Diego State won 22 games apiece the past two years, but each is unproven in 2017 and enters the year replacing its signature offensive playmaker and with myriad other question marks. Is this pair getting too much credit for past performance? Have the Arizona schools really sunk this far?
William Harris
ESPN INSIDER
9/4/17
Every Monday throughout the college football season, an early betting look provides the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts. Join us for Week 2 as we tell you which position groups hold the key to the big Oklahoma-Ohio State clash and which in-state rivalry has a widening talent gap. We'll also touch on road warrior coaches and Nick Saban trends you can set your watch to, plus profile an ACC program in decline amidst stiffening competition in its division and zoom out for the big picture view on one of the weekend's biggest national matchups.
Portfolio checkup
In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy:
Central Florida Knights
An opening night rout of Florida International showcased how well this team can pitch and catch down the field. Unfortunately, sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton still has major ball security issues, but he showed improved accuracy and appears poised to take a big step forward in 2017 for what should be an increasingly explosive attack. Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander is one of the top assistants in the league, and he has All-America candidate Shaquem Griffin leading what might be the league's top unit. Head coach Scott Frost is an offensive guy, but learned under masters Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh and Chip Kelly, and does a great job setting a physical, run-and-hit tone for the whole program. Memphis can throw and catch, too, and will test the Knights' weakness, a restaffed secondary. Win or lose this week you want to be buying Frost's bunch this year and beyond.
Sell:
North Carolina Tar Heels
Some offensive-oriented head coaches are able to set a program-wide tone of physicality and toughness that helps the other side of the ball build the mentality it needs to play winning defense. Others aren't as successful at that. When Larry Fedora landed Gene Chizik as his defensive coordinator, the Tar Heels were coming off a season in which the defense allowed nearly 40 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. In each of Chizik's two years, the unit allowed under 25 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. We expect the defense to take a big step back now that Chizik has stepped away from coaching to spend more time with family, and that's bad news for a team also replacing a first-rounder at quarterback, along with the top three backs, three of the top four receivers and a pair of all-ACC linemen. This is a rebuilding year for Carolina. The longer-term outlook isn't that rosy, either, as this is a weak staff by ACC standards and the Coastal Division has toughened considerably with the additions of proven coaching winners Mark Richt, Justin Fuente and and Bronco Mendenhall.
Slate standout
Slate standout provides games that we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for out of the contest.
Oklahoma at Ohio State (-7)
Last year it was evident that Ohio State had more overall talent on the field than Oklahoma, and this year the Buckeyes also enjoy home field and an apparent coaching mismatch between future Hall of Famer Urban Meyer and newbie Lincoln Riley. Still, the Bucks showed enough cause for concern in the opener to suggest Oklahoma has at least a chance to keep it a lot closer than last year's three-score margin. What do the Sooners have to do to put forth a better showing?
Indiana couldn't run the ball on Ohio State and couldn't really protect, though it didn't matter for three quarters because Hoosiers quarterback Richard Lagow played pitch-and-catch with his excellent receivers so well. The Buckeyes' back end was a sieve, and rates as the major concern on this year's squad. Oklahoma has a stud escape artist at quarterback and one of the nation's best offensive lines, so the Sooners figure to make the Ohio State secondary cover long and hard all night on both the called play and the scramble. But the visitor is replacing its top two wideouts, plus 50 catches from departed running backs. The Oklahoma pass-catchers might have as much raw upside, but right now this group is not as good as Indiana's. How the newcomers fare complementing tight end Mark Andrews down the field versus the struggling Ohio State defensive backfield could determine the outcome. We'll be watching to see how the week's practices unfold for the perimeter players and what the coaches' updated confidence levels in those groups are, because which of Oklahoma's inexperienced wideouts or Ohio State's greenish secondary makes the most plays downfield will decide whether Oklahoma has a shot at a huge road win.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Teams don't oppose each other; organizations do.
Our outlook on Kirby Smart's Georgia program is and has been one of general optimism, but the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team. We're also bullish on a 2017 Notre Dame rebound, and detailed some of the reasons Brian Kelly's Irish haven't been able to sustain national relevance yet in last week's preseason betting guide. For all the setbacks Notre Dame has had in Kelly's eight years in South Bend, and despite two new coordinators in 2017, this is a more mature organization that is closer to the finished product envisioned when the head coach took over than Georgia is in Year 2 under Smart. The 41-year old's Year 1 nonconference resume includes hard-fought wins over North Carolina and TCU along with a narrow loss to Georgia Tech, none of which were in the opponent's stadium and none of which involved facing the kind of talent that Notre Dame has collected. Even if you think Georgia's roster is ahead of schedule, or don't believe that Notre Dame will be that resurgent this year, you should be asking whether you're sure that the 30,000-foot view agrees that this Georgia program is quite ready to take to the road and win an intersectional game of this magnitude.
Chalk bits
Chalk bits will provide observations, issues, clues and questions from around each week's slate.
Nick Saban is now 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in season-opening neutral-site games. Just as reliable is Alabama's performance in its Week 2 follow-ups. The Tide are 0-6 ATS (with one game called early due to weather) in the game after the previous seven neutral-site openers of the Saban era. All but one of those games (a road date at Texas A&M in 2013) involved spreads of at least four touchdowns versus Group of 5 conference teams, just like this week's tilt with Fresno State.
Travel presents challenges and distractions, and some coaches, like former Texas boss Mack Brown, really know how to handle a team on the road. Richt is one of those guys. He owns a 51-18 road record and covered eight of his last 10 turns as a nonconference road favorite. We're neither enamored with Miami's chances of relevance this year nor lacking in respect for what Arkansas State brings to the table, but Richt's skill in handling these kind of games (see last year's drubbing of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina) is a factor.
Utah has not lost to BYU since the Pac-12 announced the addition of Utah and Colorado in June of 2010. That's six straight wins for the Utes, and it's not an accident. The coaches have noted for years that major conference membership has opened doors to a whole different class of players, and those claims are reflected in the recruiting rankings. The talent gap between these Beehive State rivals is swelling. BYU has other problems, too, having managed just 19 first downs in two games thus far. The Cougars do not have the playmakers at the offensive skill positions that the team has fielded the past few years. They are also coming off a late Saturday night game nearly 2,000 miles away, while Utah played its opener Thursday and has the advantage of extra rest.
Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez have each helmed their Cactus State programs for six years now, and save Arizona's Fiesta Bowl date with Boise State in 2015, neither regime has played a competitively priced game against a team from a Group of 5 conference. Now both find themselves in near-pick 'em home games with such teams. The Territorial Cup rivals were picked to bring up the rear in the Pac-12 South division by the league's media, but each has multiple proven playmakers back on offense and returns at least a half dozen starters on defense. Opposing Houston and San Diego State won 22 games apiece the past two years, but each is unproven in 2017 and enters the year replacing its signature offensive playmaker and with myriad other question marks. Is this pair getting too much credit for past performance? Have the Arizona schools really sunk this far?
