GGG VS Canello discussion thread

RenoChazz · Sep 5, 2017

Thought i'd a get an early start on this. I'm not a huge boxing fan, but this will be one of the few matches I will be watching. Earlier this year (I think it was) BAS had a thread about his guy that was fighting GGG, so I tuned in to watch that fight. Lot of us thought his kid was good enough to win that fight, it was a super close fight that could have gone either way IMO. With Canello I'm already a fan, I've watched like three of his fights, and think he's pretty good. I don't watch a lot of boxing so I'm really not sure how sharp I am here, but I really like Alvarez and was expecting him to be a slight favorite.

So Pro's and Con's what are you guys betting? Just want some other's insight before I pull the trigger here.

Mr_Mark · Sep 6, 2017

Canelo has all the tools to be great, but I don't know if his strategy and game plans are ever great. He seems to still be missing that boxing IQ to separate him and set him above.

jamesbong · Sep 6, 2017

I'll be watching. My advanced betting strategy is to take Canelo because he is mexican. Looks like it should be a great fight.

Haystacks · Sep 6, 2017

I saw James Kirkland hit red Alvarez with shots that would have knocked 98% of the boxers around these days, down and out. GGG is gonna get hit like he hasn't been hit before and will fold. His only chance against Alvarez is to murder him to the body and hope for the best.

P.s. Terrence Crawford, beware the Rougarou. He's coming for you.

Mobdeeper7239 · Sep 6, 2017

Fight of the year. Best to just watch it honestly. But I'll have something on canelo in some form. He looks good in training. GGG can take a punch. That guy is crazy. I'm pretty sure canelo is going to get hit and he will be in trouble at some point. GGG is no joke.

PatsFan1283 · Sep 6, 2017

Canelo is a good counter puncher but he really is gonna need to use his feet more vs Golovkin. If he's fighting off the ropes vs GGG, feels like a matter of time before GGG lands something big.

I think GGG cuts off the ring, wins some exchanges and eventually breaks Canelo down. I'll probably take GGG by KO at around +170ish.

If it goes to decision then you gotta like Canelo's chances given he is the new cash cow and it probably meant that Triple G had trouble imposing his will in the fight.

RenoChazz · Sep 6, 2017

Another question to boxing betters: This is just something I've noticed the last two big fights. But if you bet the dog early, then bet the favorite late, it's free money especially if you have 4 outs like I do. Is this a real trend, or just a blip? Im going to be keeping an eye on it.

PatsFan1283 · Sep 6, 2017

What fights are you referring to? Mcgregor/Mayweather was a once in a lifetime spectacle event, not really a legitimate boxing match between two top competitors. So it is a unique betting event as well.

Every fight is independent of one another though. It's not a real trend. Although if Canelo's star continues to rise then it is possible the best times to bet against him would be near the close since much more $ will come in on him than his opponent.

RenoChazz · Sep 6, 2017

yeah I was looking just at the money fight which was a fluke I thought, but Canelo was +145 yesterday, today i see him at +110 at one of my outs, which is already free money to bet GGG at -130, and thats just one day.

PatsFan1283 · Sep 6, 2017

Your 1 out is very rogue. The line is in the same range it's been in for awhile now. Almost everywhere.

When it opened GGG was like -180 but that was awhile ago.

https://www.proboxingodds.com/

Mr_Mark · Sep 6, 2017

Usually the lines don't move as much as the Mcgregor/Mayweather odds did.... but this should be a great fight!

RenoChazz · Sep 6, 2017

PatsFan1283 said:
Your 1 out is very rogue. The line is in the same range it's been in for awhile now. Almost everywhere.

When it opened GGG was like -180 but that was awhile ago.

https://www.proboxingodds.com/

Maybe offshore, but in Nevada right now here are my 4 outs as of this second
Westgate -145
Peppermill -145
William Hill US -145
Atlantis -130 (rogue)

Maybe it's just big fights?

Even 5dimes has -150 right now

RenoChazz · Sep 6, 2017

Yuck, plus a lot of those offshores that are posting -180ish are taking 40+ cents in juice. Nevada, say what you want, but they stick to 20 cents till you get in the 200's.

PatsFan1283 · Sep 6, 2017

The reputable books that Americans use on that list all have it in the -145 to -155 range though. With 20 cent lines.

-130/+110 is a rogue line. I would assume given it is Nevada that some of those books that operate there have a lot bigger hold on Canelo than offshore.

RenoChazz · Sep 6, 2017

Great link though, wasn't aware of that site before.

RenoChazz · Sep 6, 2017

PatsFan1283 said:
The reputable books that Americans use on that list all have it in the -145 to -155 range though. With 20 cent lines.

-130/+110 is a rogue line. I would assume given it is Nevada that some of those books that operate there have a lot bigger hold on Canelo than offshore.

Yeah Atlantis is a small independent book, and they often have a lot different than others, but the director there is a sharp guy. I bet other books get to -130 by fight night. Even then -185 to -145 is a pretty big move on a line with only 20 cents vig.

ANOTHERDAY · Sep 6, 2017

Saul is the stronger fighter I will give him that, but to close to call

ANOTHERDAY · Sep 6, 2017

Saul is the stronger fighter, I will give him that..., but to close to call

PatsFan1283 · Sep 6, 2017

Canelo is a better pure boxer and he is younger and should be entering his prime. But he is still moving up a weight class to fight a guy that likely hits much harder than him at that weight class. Not sure how much Canelo's power translates to 160.

GGG has an iron chin and I just can't see it being a fight without its share of exchanges, where he is likely to do more damage.

I also think GGG comes in a lot more motivated than he did for Jacobs. He's been waiting for this fight for 3-4 years and it is by far the biggest fight of his career. He's getting up there in age but I think we see pretty close to the best version of him.