Teams with worst depth at each position group
Scott Kacsmar
ESPN INSIDER
9/6/17
With 53-man rosters set, every NFL team hopes to have built up enough depth to get through the 2017 season and its impending run of injuries. Last season, New England won the Super Bowl after losing All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, because Martellus Bennett was a high-quality replacement. And after already losing Julian Edelman this season, the Patriots have built up enough depth at wide receiver, with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell and now the recently added Phillip Dorsett, that the loss of Edelman won't be felt as much as it would on a team with lesser depth.
Moreover, if a team is already weak at a position, then an injury there is unlikely to make things much worse. For example, Pittsburgh has a weakness at tight end, so an injury to Jesse James or newcomer Vance McDonald wouldn't really change much for the Steelers.
However, some injuries are much harder to overcome. When Oakland lost Derek Carr to a broken leg in Week 16, the Raiders' playoff hopes were dashed; the drop from Carr to rookie backup Connor Cook was too steep. The fact is just about every contender would be in serious trouble if the starting quarterback were lost for the season.
We wanted to focus instead on the worst depth situations for the other offensive and defensive units, looking at teams for which an injury to a starter would cause the biggest problems. Any references to pass-pressure stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders' game charting project in coordination with Sports Info Solutions.
Running back: Buffalo Bills
Starter: LeSean McCoy
Key reserves: Joe Banyard, Mike Tolbert (FB)
Buffalo loves to run the football and had the No. 1 rushing offense last season, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. LeSean McCoy was second in rushing DYAR (total value) to only Ezekiel Elliott and second in rushing DVOA (value per play) to teammate Mike Gillislee. The loss of the dynamic Gillislee to New England and the surprise release of 2016 fifth-round pick Jonathan Williams leaves just undrafted journeyman Joe Banyard and fullback Mike Tolbert behind McCoy.
With Buffalo losing wide receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin and also trading No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to the Rams, there are few proven quantities in this offense. The loss of McCoy would be another devastating blow to quarterback Tyrod Taylor; beyond his rushing contributions, McCoy was third on the team with 50 receptions last year.
Wide receiver: Houston Texans
Starter: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V
Key reserves: Jaelen Strong, Braxton Miller, Bruce Ellington
Denver would have been a good choice at this position, as well, but unless Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both get injured, the Broncos should at least have one quality player there. The Texans have DeAndre Hopkins -- and some hope.
There is hope that Fuller will turn into more than a deep threat with hands of stone. There is hope that Strong, a third-round pick in 2015, can do more than catch 14 passes per season and score against only the Colts. There is hope that Bruce Ellington can turn a productive preseason into something in games that count. Finally, there is hope that Braxton Miller, a 2016 third-round pick, can be more than a gadget player after he produced 99 receiving yards on 28 targets last season.
More than anything, the Texans better hope Hopkins, who has never missed a game in his first four seasons, stays healthy all year.
Tight end: Kansas City
Starter: Travis Kelce
Key reserves: Demetrius Harris, Ross Travis
Travis Kelce led all tight ends in DYAR in 2016, and was named first-team All-Pro for the first time in his career. Kelce was the Chiefs' leading receiver, and his usage and production on slants, drags and screens was greater than any tight end in the league.
That performance cannot be replicated by backup Demetrius Harris, a blocker with 27 career catches. Kelce is still not as good as Rob Gronkowski, but the difference here is that the Patriots have Dwayne Allen should something happen again to their stud tight end. The Chiefs would really have to go back to the drawing board.
Offensive line: Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Tyron Smith, Jonathan Cooper, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, La'el Collins
Key reserves: Chaz Green, Joe Looney, Byron Bell
Dallas' reputation as the best offensive line in the league is built heavily on the three All-Pros: left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin. If Jonathan Cooper and La'el Collins can live up to their draft potential, this could be an even stronger unit going forward.
The problem is the drop-off, should any of those top players succumb to injury. Dallas' most experienced backup is tackle Byron Bell (72 starts), who hasn't started a game since 2015 after dislocating his ankle last year. Chaz Green was a third-round pick in 2015 who started two games at left tackle last year, but he's not going to make anyone forget about Smith.
Defensive end: Oakland Raiders
Starter: Khalil Mack, Mario Edwards Jr.
Key reserves: James Cowser, Denico Autry
Khalil Mack is the reigning defensive player of the year despite the fact that Oakland's defense finished 22nd in DVOA (25th against the pass) last year. It is hard to imagine Oakland's defense not falling apart entirely without him.
Bruce Irvin could still rush the passer, but he's a speedy outside linebacker rather than an end. Oakland's other starter, Mario Edwards Jr., was limited to two games last season and had only 2.0 sacks in 2015. Beyond that, the Raiders have ho-hum backups in James Cowser and Denico Autry. Some defenses can rotate in a second wave of quality ends, but Oakland's success is very dependent on Mack's dominance.
Defensive tackle: Los Angeles Rams
Starter: Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers
Key reserve: Tanzel Smart
Aaron Donald's leverage for his holdout should be quite clear: The Rams can't possibly replace his dominant production. Michael Brockers is a solid player against the run, but he had three hurries last season. Donald had 44, and this is no one-year fluke. Donald had 31 hurries compared to six for Brockers in 2015.
Sixth-round rookie Tanzel Smart cannot fill Donald's shoes, so a deal that will make Donald the highest-paid defender in NFL history is inevitable.
Outside linebacker: Atlanta Falcons
Starters: Vic Beasley Jr., De'Vondre Campbell
Key reserve: Duke Riley
Every defense would love to have at least two quality edge rushers. We see this best in the AFC West with Denver (Von Miller and Shane Ray), Kansas City (Justin Houston and Dee Ford/Tamba Hali), Los Angeles (Joey Bosa and Melvin Gordon) and Oakland (Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin). In Atlanta, Vic Beasley was a bit of a one-man show last season. His 15.5 sacks led the NFL, while no other Atlanta defender had more than 4.5 sacks. Dwight Freeney, who had 29 hurries, is not returning this year, so it could be the Beasley show again, with only rookies -- including third-round pick Duke Riley -- backing him up.
De'Vondre Campbell was a fourth-round pick who started last year, but he had only three hurries because he's more of an off-ball linebacker. First-round pick Takkarist McKinley could eventually create a duo of bookend rushers for Atlanta, but he is more of a traditional 4-3 defensive end than Beasley.
Inside linebacker: Pittsburgh Steelers
Starters: Ryan Shazier, Vince Williams
Key reserves: L.J. Fort, Tyler Matakevich
Pittsburgh has a mixture of youth, in rookie T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree, to pair with veteran James Harrison at outside linebacker. Things are much leaner inside after Lawrence Timmons left for Miami following his 10th season with the Steelers.
While Ryan Shazier has star potential, durability has been a concern in his career. Shazier has missed 14 games since 2014, which is nearly 30 percent of his career. Vince Williams has done adequately in small roles, but he'll have to step up to replace Timmons full time now. Pittsburgh's depth is journeyman L.J. Fort, who had his lone NFL start with Cleveland in 2012, and special-teamer Tyler Matakevich.
Cornerback: Arizona Cardinals
Starter: Patrick Peterson, Justin Bethel
Key reserves: Tramon Williams, Brandon Williams
Nickel is now the dominant defense in the NFL, but finding three quality cornerbacks is nearly impossible. For most teams, the goal on defense is to field at least two quality cornerbacks. The Broncos (Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.), Giants (Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), Patriots (Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore) and Chargers (Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward) are doing this. Kansas City has struggled to find a complement to Marcus Peters, but instead we've chosen to highlight Patrick Peterson because of the role he plays in Arizona's defense.
Peterson routinely shadows the opponent's best receiver all over the field, which is a rarity in today's game. Last season, Arizona ranked No. 10 in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers but slipped to 27th against No. 2 wide receivers. That is the impact of Peterson. Last year, Justin Bethel and Brandon Williams had similar charting metrics to Peterson on a per-play basis, but they combined to face 65 targets, the same number as Peterson. And if he gets hurt? Yeesh.
Safety: Carolina Panthers
Starter: Mike Adams, Kurt Coleman
Key reserve: Colin Jones
Carolina does not have a star safety at this time, but Mike Adams and Kurt Coleman are both experienced veterans with a lot of recent interceptions. Coleman has 11 interceptions since 2015, and Adams made the Pro Bowl twice for the Colts, in 2014 and '15 with a total of 10 thefts.
The difference between the Panthers and most teams with star safeties is that Carolina lacks starting experience and draft value in its safety depth. Colin Jones has been with the team since 2012 but has just six career starts, as he mostly plays on special teams. Given that Carolina ranked 30th in DVOA against passes thrown in the deep middle of the field last year, this defense cannot afford another lapse at safety.
Scott Kacsmar
ESPN INSIDER
9/6/17
With 53-man rosters set, every NFL team hopes to have built up enough depth to get through the 2017 season and its impending run of injuries. Last season, New England won the Super Bowl after losing All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, because Martellus Bennett was a high-quality replacement. And after already losing Julian Edelman this season, the Patriots have built up enough depth at wide receiver, with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell and now the recently added Phillip Dorsett, that the loss of Edelman won't be felt as much as it would on a team with lesser depth.
Moreover, if a team is already weak at a position, then an injury there is unlikely to make things much worse. For example, Pittsburgh has a weakness at tight end, so an injury to Jesse James or newcomer Vance McDonald wouldn't really change much for the Steelers.
However, some injuries are much harder to overcome. When Oakland lost Derek Carr to a broken leg in Week 16, the Raiders' playoff hopes were dashed; the drop from Carr to rookie backup Connor Cook was too steep. The fact is just about every contender would be in serious trouble if the starting quarterback were lost for the season.
We wanted to focus instead on the worst depth situations for the other offensive and defensive units, looking at teams for which an injury to a starter would cause the biggest problems. Any references to pass-pressure stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders' game charting project in coordination with Sports Info Solutions.
Running back: Buffalo Bills
Starter: LeSean McCoy
Key reserves: Joe Banyard, Mike Tolbert (FB)
Buffalo loves to run the football and had the No. 1 rushing offense last season, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. LeSean McCoy was second in rushing DYAR (total value) to only Ezekiel Elliott and second in rushing DVOA (value per play) to teammate Mike Gillislee. The loss of the dynamic Gillislee to New England and the surprise release of 2016 fifth-round pick Jonathan Williams leaves just undrafted journeyman Joe Banyard and fullback Mike Tolbert behind McCoy.
With Buffalo losing wide receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin and also trading No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to the Rams, there are few proven quantities in this offense. The loss of McCoy would be another devastating blow to quarterback Tyrod Taylor; beyond his rushing contributions, McCoy was third on the team with 50 receptions last year.
Wide receiver: Houston Texans
Starter: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V
Key reserves: Jaelen Strong, Braxton Miller, Bruce Ellington
Denver would have been a good choice at this position, as well, but unless Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both get injured, the Broncos should at least have one quality player there. The Texans have DeAndre Hopkins -- and some hope.
There is hope that Fuller will turn into more than a deep threat with hands of stone. There is hope that Strong, a third-round pick in 2015, can do more than catch 14 passes per season and score against only the Colts. There is hope that Bruce Ellington can turn a productive preseason into something in games that count. Finally, there is hope that Braxton Miller, a 2016 third-round pick, can be more than a gadget player after he produced 99 receiving yards on 28 targets last season.
More than anything, the Texans better hope Hopkins, who has never missed a game in his first four seasons, stays healthy all year.
Tight end: Kansas City
Starter: Travis Kelce
Key reserves: Demetrius Harris, Ross Travis
Travis Kelce led all tight ends in DYAR in 2016, and was named first-team All-Pro for the first time in his career. Kelce was the Chiefs' leading receiver, and his usage and production on slants, drags and screens was greater than any tight end in the league.
That performance cannot be replicated by backup Demetrius Harris, a blocker with 27 career catches. Kelce is still not as good as Rob Gronkowski, but the difference here is that the Patriots have Dwayne Allen should something happen again to their stud tight end. The Chiefs would really have to go back to the drawing board.
Offensive line: Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Tyron Smith, Jonathan Cooper, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, La'el Collins
Key reserves: Chaz Green, Joe Looney, Byron Bell
Dallas' reputation as the best offensive line in the league is built heavily on the three All-Pros: left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin. If Jonathan Cooper and La'el Collins can live up to their draft potential, this could be an even stronger unit going forward.
The problem is the drop-off, should any of those top players succumb to injury. Dallas' most experienced backup is tackle Byron Bell (72 starts), who hasn't started a game since 2015 after dislocating his ankle last year. Chaz Green was a third-round pick in 2015 who started two games at left tackle last year, but he's not going to make anyone forget about Smith.
Defensive end: Oakland Raiders
Starter: Khalil Mack, Mario Edwards Jr.
Key reserves: James Cowser, Denico Autry
Khalil Mack is the reigning defensive player of the year despite the fact that Oakland's defense finished 22nd in DVOA (25th against the pass) last year. It is hard to imagine Oakland's defense not falling apart entirely without him.
Bruce Irvin could still rush the passer, but he's a speedy outside linebacker rather than an end. Oakland's other starter, Mario Edwards Jr., was limited to two games last season and had only 2.0 sacks in 2015. Beyond that, the Raiders have ho-hum backups in James Cowser and Denico Autry. Some defenses can rotate in a second wave of quality ends, but Oakland's success is very dependent on Mack's dominance.
Defensive tackle: Los Angeles Rams
Starter: Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers
Key reserve: Tanzel Smart
Aaron Donald's leverage for his holdout should be quite clear: The Rams can't possibly replace his dominant production. Michael Brockers is a solid player against the run, but he had three hurries last season. Donald had 44, and this is no one-year fluke. Donald had 31 hurries compared to six for Brockers in 2015.
Sixth-round rookie Tanzel Smart cannot fill Donald's shoes, so a deal that will make Donald the highest-paid defender in NFL history is inevitable.
Outside linebacker: Atlanta Falcons
Starters: Vic Beasley Jr., De'Vondre Campbell
Key reserve: Duke Riley
Every defense would love to have at least two quality edge rushers. We see this best in the AFC West with Denver (Von Miller and Shane Ray), Kansas City (Justin Houston and Dee Ford/Tamba Hali), Los Angeles (Joey Bosa and Melvin Gordon) and Oakland (Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin). In Atlanta, Vic Beasley was a bit of a one-man show last season. His 15.5 sacks led the NFL, while no other Atlanta defender had more than 4.5 sacks. Dwight Freeney, who had 29 hurries, is not returning this year, so it could be the Beasley show again, with only rookies -- including third-round pick Duke Riley -- backing him up.
De'Vondre Campbell was a fourth-round pick who started last year, but he had only three hurries because he's more of an off-ball linebacker. First-round pick Takkarist McKinley could eventually create a duo of bookend rushers for Atlanta, but he is more of a traditional 4-3 defensive end than Beasley.
Inside linebacker: Pittsburgh Steelers
Starters: Ryan Shazier, Vince Williams
Key reserves: L.J. Fort, Tyler Matakevich
Pittsburgh has a mixture of youth, in rookie T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree, to pair with veteran James Harrison at outside linebacker. Things are much leaner inside after Lawrence Timmons left for Miami following his 10th season with the Steelers.
While Ryan Shazier has star potential, durability has been a concern in his career. Shazier has missed 14 games since 2014, which is nearly 30 percent of his career. Vince Williams has done adequately in small roles, but he'll have to step up to replace Timmons full time now. Pittsburgh's depth is journeyman L.J. Fort, who had his lone NFL start with Cleveland in 2012, and special-teamer Tyler Matakevich.
Cornerback: Arizona Cardinals
Starter: Patrick Peterson, Justin Bethel
Key reserves: Tramon Williams, Brandon Williams
Nickel is now the dominant defense in the NFL, but finding three quality cornerbacks is nearly impossible. For most teams, the goal on defense is to field at least two quality cornerbacks. The Broncos (Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.), Giants (Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), Patriots (Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore) and Chargers (Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward) are doing this. Kansas City has struggled to find a complement to Marcus Peters, but instead we've chosen to highlight Patrick Peterson because of the role he plays in Arizona's defense.
Peterson routinely shadows the opponent's best receiver all over the field, which is a rarity in today's game. Last season, Arizona ranked No. 10 in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers but slipped to 27th against No. 2 wide receivers. That is the impact of Peterson. Last year, Justin Bethel and Brandon Williams had similar charting metrics to Peterson on a per-play basis, but they combined to face 65 targets, the same number as Peterson. And if he gets hurt? Yeesh.
Safety: Carolina Panthers
Starter: Mike Adams, Kurt Coleman
Key reserve: Colin Jones
Carolina does not have a star safety at this time, but Mike Adams and Kurt Coleman are both experienced veterans with a lot of recent interceptions. Coleman has 11 interceptions since 2015, and Adams made the Pro Bowl twice for the Colts, in 2014 and '15 with a total of 10 thefts.
The difference between the Panthers and most teams with star safeties is that Carolina lacks starting experience and draft value in its safety depth. Colin Jones has been with the team since 2012 but has just six career starts, as he mostly plays on special teams. Given that Carolina ranked 30th in DVOA against passes thrown in the deep middle of the field last year, this defense cannot afford another lapse at safety.
