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Thread: MistaFlava's AFL (Aussie) Playoffs ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

  1. #1 MistaFlava's AFL (Aussie) Playoffs ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis) 
    Handicapping Machine MistaFlava's Avatar
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    MistaFlava's 2017 AFL Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

    I have not posted at all this season but this is a sport I follow very closely, it's unreal to watch and we catch a bunch of these games on Fox Sports TV in the States so why the heck not.

    The playoffs are here which means the season is down to 9 games leading up to the Grand Final!

    Follow at your own risk.

    ------------------------------------------------------------



    Thursday, September 7



    Qualifying Final #1


    Adelaide Crows -10.5 (10 Units)

    The is no doubt the Crows are the class of the AFL and it's not even close. I know the Finals are a completely different story than the regular season but the public money is going to be on GWS in this one and I am not falling for it. Let's study the stats a little. So Adelaide went 8-3 SU at home this season while Greater Western Sydney went 5-1-5 SU away from home. In those home games Adelaide managed to score 1247 total points (#1 in the AFL for Home Teams) and allowed 787 points (#3 in the AFL for Home Teams). The Giants on the other hand scored 1010 points away from home this season (#8 in the AFL for away teams) and allowed 953 points (#6 in the AFL for away teams). Adelaide had some strange home matches this season losing to Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney but they beat Port Adelaide by 84, Geelong by 21, Richmond by 76, Essendon by 65 and Greater Western Sydney by 56. ALL PLAYOFF TEAMS! So you see how good this squad is at home.

    Keep in mind the loser of this game goes into the Quarter-Finals while the winner goes right into the Semi-Finals so losing is the not the end of the world. Adelaide is 4-0 SU lifetime against Greater Western Sydney at home winning those four games by 46 (2012), 65 (2014), 22 (2016) and 56 (this season). They are also 6-1 ATS (Against the Spread) in their last 7 games versus the Giants and have won 7 of the 8 all-time meetings. My initial thought was that the line would be a bit tighter given the titanic battle between these two but over the years it has never been close when playing in Adelaide and as mentioned above, the Giants have absolutely mangled some of their playoff reaching opponents this season and it wasn't even close. I will follow that trend into the playoffs.

    Trend of the Game: Adelaide is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Greater Western Sydney


    Adelaide 106, Greater Western Sydney 74





    ​more to come...
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  2. #2  
    Handicapping Machine MistaFlava's Avatar
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    Big win for the Crows!

    1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units) this week!
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  3. #3  
    Handicapping Machine MistaFlava's Avatar
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    Skipped last night's huge Richmond blowout win over Geelong and kind of glad I did. Really did not see that coming although the line was a bit sketchy.
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    adding...



    Saturday, September 9



    Elimination Final #1


    Essendon Bombers +36.5 (10 Units)

    My goodness what a crazy line considering these two sides met in Sydney back on June 23 and the Swans managed to win 86-85. It was a thriller to say the least and I expect nothing less in this matchup as well. Sydney comes into the playoffs as the hottest team in the AFL but their home record of only 7-4 SU this season is a little concerning. Don't get me wrong, they have won 6 straight games at home but if you look at their home slate in 2017 you will see that of the 11 games played here, only 3 were played against teams that reached the playoffs and in all three of those games Sydney struggled (Lost 110-82 to Port Adelaide, Lost 105-63 to Greater Western Sydney and just barely beat the Bombers 86-85). All their other wins came against bottom feeder teams so the 6 in a row at home coming in is a bit misleading. Essendon on the other hand are hard to predict. They were only 4-7 SU away from home in 2017 with none of their wins coming against playoff opponents. They did however keep things close with Richmond (81-66 Loss), keep things close with Greater Western Sydney (117-101 Loss) and then of course the Swans game.

    I don't really think that Essendon can win the match but they can surely keep it close. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four overall against the Swans and this will not be the blowout that everyone is expecting. Don't forget this is an elimination final. Loser goes home and the party is over so nerves will certainly play a part in this match and that could have the Swans playing tight. The Crows were able to destroy GWS two nights ago because they were loose knowing that a loss would still see them playing a semi-final. Nonetheless I expect Sydney to win this match but Essendon to at least make a run at it before seeing the Swans pull away in the fourth quarter.

    Trend of the Game: Essendon is 3-1 ATS in their last four versus Sydney


    Sydney 98, Essendon 76





    Elimination Final #2


    Port Adelaide Power ML -209 (10 Units)

    Okay maybe a sucker play out of things here but the majority are going to be on West Coast to cover the spread and I'm just not sure they can do it. When they beat the Power here back in May, the Power had not established themselves as a contender to make the Final 8 but when they met again on July 9, the Power destroyed the Eagles 120-88 on the road and that was that. I really don't see West Coast coming into the Oval and winning again. No way. They barely got into the playoffs by beating Adelaide (who obviously had not interest in the match) in their final game of the season. It's a misleading win. Other "away" matches this season against Final 8 opponents saw them lose by 11 at Richmond, lose by 61 at Essendon and lose by 21 at Greater Western Sydney. Not impressed at all and I said it a few weeks ago that the Eagles don't belong in the Final 8 but then again none of the other contenders did either. The Power finished 8-3 SU at home this season and this is why I am backing them on the Money Line and paying the higher price to earn my coin. Their only losses were to Richmond, West Coast and Adelaide, all respectable losses in the end. Port were the #1 home scoring offense in 2017 with 1157 points in those 11 games which is not good news for a West Coast team allowing the 10th most points away from home this season.

    It's been known for years that Port Adelaide struggle with West Coast and this is true but for me those demons were crushed back in July when the Power went on the road and crushed the Eagles on their turf. Also interesting to note and I forgot to mention it above is that Port Adelaide at the TOP defensive home team in the AFL in 2017 allowing only 713 points. Not good news for a West Coast offense which is ranked #11 in the AFL in away games this season. I'm going with Port to win this.

    Trend of the Game: Port Adelaide is 8-3 SU at home this season.


    Port Adelaide 75, West Coast 59





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