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  1. #251  
    "My Other Vehicle Is a Locomotive" RDTrains's Avatar
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    “on TB 22-6 = oppose late season home favs off 3 straight home games”

    Should read oppose late season road Favs ...?
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  2. #252  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    OPPOSE 7-7 teams off a SUATS loss vs opponent with 3+ wins. 19-2 (on NY Jets)
    OVER 1 win after b2b 10+ pt losses. 46-21 o/u (WAS/DEN over)
    UNDER off blowout away win that went under vs opponent allowing <26 ppg. 18-52 o/u (BAL/IND under)
    UNDER nondiv off away fav vs opponent off bad defensive game. 3-35 o/u (BAL/IND under)
    OPPOSE big dogs off a dog game and now playing heavy rushing team. 26-2 (on MIN, CAR, PHI)
    UNDER big away fav. 19-57 o/u (PIT/HOU under, MIN/GB under)
    OVER ndiv fav after 10+ first downs vs terrible offensive opponent. 27-2 o/u (DET/CIN over)
    OPPOSE late season away fav off 3 straight home games. 23-6 (on SF)
    OVER 41+ total with big YTD margin team that just allowed <6 first half last game. 138-70 o/u (JAX/SF over, LAR/TEN over)
    ON home dog off a 4+ TD blowout. 51-22 (on HOU)
    ON home favs of 3+ that won 6-7 of previous 7 home games this season. 55-26 (on NO)
    ...had a few on PHI but i deleted them before I typed up the system...
    bowl add: play on teams that won their conf title game 28 or less days ago. 30-5 (on Toledo ... both Ohio St and So Cal fit so cancel out)
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  3. #253  
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    Can you filter to include if the team is fave up to 7pts instead of being dog?
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  4. #254  
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    The league is 45-27 as a 7+ home dog after they suffered a 3+ turnover margin last week if the OU is more than 35




    GB +9
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  5. #255  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biz View Post
    Filter to Dogs of 2-12.5 and you have pretty good results

    game type = BG and wins = 6 and o:wins > 6 and D and 2 <= line < 13
    SU: 39-47-0 (-2.14, 45.3%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 57-29-0 (3.95, 66.3%) avg line: 6.1 +6: 66-20-0 (76.7%) -6: 38-47-1 (44.7%) +10: 68-17-1 (80.0%) -10: 23-62-1 (27.1%)
    O/U: 14-29-1 (-4.03, 32.6%) avg total: 55.0 +6: 11-33-0 (25.0%) -6: 24-20-0 (54.5%) +10: 9-35-0 (20.5%) -10: 28-16-0 (63.6%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 37.2 150.5 32.2 230.0 18.7 1.7 6.3 7.5 4.8 6.2 24.3
    Opp 36.3 152.3 32.7 237.0 18.7 1.5 5.8 6.6 5.9 7.0 26.4
    Showing 1 to 40 of 40 entries
    This is one I was referring to. Can you filter if team with less wins is the fave?
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  6. #256  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bleeder View Post
    This is one I was referring to. Can you filter if team with less wins is the fave?
    rarest of the rare. that "system" was predicated on a bowl team with exactly 6 wins being the underdog so if you want them to also have more wins than the fav that leaves only the few 5-win teams in the history of bowl games.... thus:

    game type = BG and wins = 6 and D and 2 <= line < 13 and o:wins < wins
    SU: 0-1-0 (-11.00, 0.0%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 0-1-0 (-9.00, 0.0%) avg line: 2.0 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 1-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 0-1-0 (0.0%)
    O/U: 0-1-0 (-13.00, 0.0%) avg total: 56.0 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -10: 0-1-0 (0.0%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 20.0 23.0 29.0 208.0 14.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 9.0 16.0
    Opp 54.0 197.0 19.0 89.0 10.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 3.0 14.0 27.0
    Showing 1 to 1 of 1 entries
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  7. #257  
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    game type = BG and F and wins < 8 and rest >= 20 and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W
    Results are about 50-50 (actually 4-6) from 20 to 29 days of rest. Changing to favorite or pick-em adds two winners. Cutting out blowout losses by the bowl opponent in its prior game drops one win and two losses. Revised angle is 1-17 ATS:

    game type = BG and 0 >= line and wins < 8 and rest > 29 and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and op:margin > -18


    SU: 1-17-0 (-10.11, 5.6%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 1-17-0 (-13.75, 5.6%) avg line: -3.6 +6: 3-14-1 (17.6%) -6: 0-18-0 (0.0%) +10: 9-9-0 (50.0%) -10: 0-18-0 (0.0%)
    O/U: 2-2-0 (2.75, 50.0%) avg total: 57.0 +6: 2-2-0 (50.0%) -6: 3-1-0 (75.0%)

    Texas is a play. USM would not be a play under the revised angle.
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  8. #258  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mws View Post
    Results are about 50-50 (actually 4-6) from 20 to 29 days of rest. Changing to favorite or pick-em adds two winners. Cutting out blowout losses by the bowl opponent in its prior game drops one win and two losses. Revised angle is 1-17 ATS:

    game type = BG and 0 >= line and wins < 8 and rest > 29 and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and op:margin > -18


    Texas is a play. USM would not be a play under the revised angle.
    can also just drop the 29-exact rest and have opponent come in with no more than 33 rest and is 0-15-1 ATS against both FSU and Missouri
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  9. #259  
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    R/Tide........appreciate all you do yearly my friend..........you and your family have a great Holiday Season...........indy
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  10. #260  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by indiana View Post
    R/Tide........appreciate all you do yearly my friend..........you and your family have a great Holiday Season...........indy
    thanks Indy... Happy Christmas to you as well
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  11. #261  
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    Good luck today...
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  12. #262  
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    messing around with late season stuff. two bad offenses with total <40... 12 straight unders and 4-25 o/u in 20+ years. could have something active for HT and/or next week

    game number > 14 and total < 40 and season > 1994 and H and tA(points) + otA(points) < 33
    SU: 19-10-0 (2.48, 65.5%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 18-11-0 (0.78, 62.1%) avg line: -1.7 +6: 22-7-0 (75.9%) -6: 10-18-1 (35.7%) +10: 24-5-0 (82.8%) -10: 4-24-1 (14.3%)
    O/U: 4-25-0 (-4.55, 13.8%) avg total: 36.5 +6: 3-26-0 (10.3%) -6: 16-12-1 (57.1%) +10: 3-26-0 (10.3%) -10: 20-9-0 (69.0%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 30.9 127.7 29.3 152.6 16.6 1.7 2.6 6.2 3.6 4.6 17.2
    Opp 28.5 110.6 31.2 171.9 17.2 1.9 3.1 4.8 2.3 4.6 14.7
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  13. #263  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Since Jan 2011 large divisional home favs are 31-1 SU, 23-9 ATS in final weeks of season and 29-3 in 6-pt teaser. (Pats/Steelers/Vikes ML/teaser)


    PLAY ON home favs that are 6-1/7-0 at home this season. 56-26 (on MIN)


    OPPOSE dogs that have 4+ more wins than opponent. 61-23 (on DEN, on DAL, on SF)


    UNDER 7+ away favs. 19-60 o/u (NO/TB under if -7 or higher)


    OVER Dog off dog loss by 10+ vs opponent off Monday game. 42-22 o/u (CLE/PIT over)


    OVER low total with team on 4+ game under streak and just scored <13. 114-71 o/u (OAK/LAC over)


    OVER tighten above with no bye, opponent scored <34, and not in Eastern time zone. 43-8 o/u (OAK/LAC over)


    PLAY ON big home favs off home dog win and playing poor opponent. 63-27 (on BAL)


    PLAY ON away dog off away loss and WP b/w 25-40%. 87-40 (on OAK)


    UNDER NFC home team with 63%+ first downs through air and off away fav game. 11-49 o/u (LAR/SF under)


    PLAY ON away team no more than dog of +3 off away nondiv loss. 23-9 (Jax if +3 or less)


    PLAY ON team that lost by 45+ ATS in last 5 weeks. 120-72 (on HOU)


    OVER good margin team that just allowed <6 first half points. 140-71 o/u (LAC/OAK over, TB/NO over)


    PLAY ON away team with b2b no turnovers vs team that just had 1+ turnovers. 67-33 (on BUF, on KC)


    PLAY ON away team within 3 of pkem off away loss. 78-32 (on BUF, on JAX if -3 to +3)


    OPPOSE streaking away team that just allowed 300+ passing yards and 250+ in game before that. 35-15 (on ATL)


    UNDER off blowout away win that went under vs opponent that doesnt score a lot. 18-53 o/u (PIT/CLE under, MIN/CHI under)


    UNDER big dog on grass that scored less than expected in b2b games. 0-20 o/u (PIT/CLE under, LAC/OAK under) ... 20 straight unders but been historically 50/50 bet


    PLAY ON final game teams not on a big losing streak, are 1-3 games worse than their opponent who has 5-11 wins. 107-40 (on OAK, on MIA, on ATL, on GB, on CIN, on ARI, on TEN) ... only 1 losing year since 1990 with 2-3-1 in 2011.
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  14. #264  
    RX SemiGod 1osubucks's Avatar
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    ty tide for the posts
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  15. #265  
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    Bump
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  16. #266  
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    tide anything for playoffs?
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  17. #267  
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1osubucks View Post
    tide anything for playoffs?
    got a bunch on the rams due to their YPPA stats

    most in-play leaguewide is to bet against playoff teams before the super bowl if they won 6 or less games the previous season

    PRSW < 7 and playoffs > 0 and ...
    SU: 13-39-0 (-8.08, 25.0%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 12-38-2 (-5.88, 24.0%) avg line: 2.2 +6: 23-28-1 (45.1%) -6: 8-43-1 (15.7%) +10: 33-19-0 (63.5%) -10: 5-47-0 (9.6%)
    O/U: 28-23-1 (3.87, 54.9%) avg total: 41.9 +6: 15-36-1 (29.4%) -6: 40-10-2 (80.0%) +10: 14-37-1 (27.5%) -10: 46-6-0 (88.5%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 25.2 108.8 34.0 202.7 19.6 2.0 3.3 6.1 3.7 5.4 18.9
    Opp 30.6 126.0 32.8 237.2 20.8 1.3 5.2 8.2 6.1 7.1 26.9

    and tightens up if opponent won the same, or more, games last year.

    PRSW < 7 and playoffs > 0 and ... and PRSW <= o:PRSW
    SU: 9-38-0 (-9.91, 19.1%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 7-38-2 (-7.62, 15.6%) avg line: 2.3 +6: 18-28-1 (39.1%) -6: 4-42-1 (8.7%) +10: 28-19-0 (59.6%) -10: 3-44-0 (6.4%)
    O/U: 26-20-1 (4.52, 56.5%) avg total: 42.1 +6: 15-31-1 (32.6%) -6: 37-9-1 (80.4%) +10: 14-32-1 (30.4%) -10: 41-6-0 (87.2%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 24.7 105.9 35.0 207.0 20.3 2.1 3.2 5.8 3.5 5.6 18.3
    Opp 30.9 128.5 32.3 237.9 20.3 1.1 5.4 8.6 6.3 7.6 28.3


    then really tightens up if they're not underdog by >7

    PRSW < 7 and playoffs > 0 and ... line < 7.5
    SU: 7-29-0 (-9.47, 19.4%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 3-31-2 (-9.49, 8.8%) avg line: -0.0 +6: 11-24-1 (31.4%) -6: 2-33-1 (5.7%) +10: 19-17-0 (52.8%) -10: 1-35-0 (2.8%)
    O/U: 19-16-1 (3.97, 54.3%) avg total: 41.7 +6: 10-25-1 (28.6%) -6: 28-7-1 (80.0%) +10: 9-26-1 (25.7%) -10: 32-4-0 (88.9%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 24.9 108.2 35.1 198.6 20.4 2.3 3.4 5.2 3.6 5.7 18.1
    Opp 30.2 125.2 31.7 230.4 19.8 1.0 4.4 9.0 6.4 7.4 27.6
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  18. #268  
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    So if I am reading this correctly it would be a play on the falcons bills and saints?
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  19. #269  
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    tide any thoughts on this ?

    team = GEO and o:team = ALA

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  20. #270  
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    Good luck tonight my friend
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  21. #271  
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    PLAY ON playoff team after h2h non div loss vs same opponent week 4+. 41-22-2 ATS (on PIT)
    tightener of above...NOT the combo of playing playoff away after losing regular season at home. 34-13-1 ATS (on PIT)


    OPPOSE playoff team before super bowl that won <6 games LY. 40-13-2 (on PIT)
    tightener...and had equal or less wins last year. 40-8-2 (on PIT)
    ...and not a dog of 7.5+. 33-4-2 (on PIT)


    PLAY ON any playoff team -6.5 or less b4 super bowl that has better YPPA and won 7+ games LY. 70-24 (on Vikings, on Falcons)
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  22. #272  
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    OPPOSE nondiv road favs in playoffs that just won as a road dog of >3. 16-5 (on PHI)
    ....and if this road fav was 9+ win team last year. 12-2 (on PHI)
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  23. #273  
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    Here's the one we've been killing all year. no fits in last month but active today if stays -7 or higher


    UNDER big 7+ favs not off a great offensive game. 0-34 o/u (PIT/JAX) - this is a subset of 43-103-2 o/u


    note: still very good even if line drops. 9-54 o/u favored by 4.5 or more
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  24. #274  
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    against Philly if stays 3 or higher home dog

    OPPOSE dogs of 3 or more in 2nd half of season (or playoffs) that won at least 80% of games YTD and score 20+ ppg. 27-67-4 ATS, 18-80 SU
    ....home dogs here are 2-10 ATS, 2-10 SU
    ....if opponent coming off a win <6 points or a loss = 9-40-1 ATS, 5-45 SU
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