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Thread: 2017 NCAA Systems

  1. #26  
    RX Local indiana's Avatar
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    R/tide.........how are you doing with your soccer action..........hope all is well, BOL this weekend.........indy
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  2. #27  
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    Hi Roll. I was wondering how a team does in the NFL after getting shut out the week before (Cincy) 0 ? And does the next game stay under or go over? Thanx.
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  3. #28  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sunshine11 View Post
    Hi Roll. I was wondering how a team does in the NFL after getting shut out the week before (Cincy) 0 ? And does the next game stay under or go over? Thanx.
    p:points = 0
    SU: 85-114-1 (-2.35, 42.7%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 105-91-4 (0.66, 53.6%) avg line: 3.0 +6: 144-53-3 (73.1%) -6: 65-133-2 (32.8%) +10: 169-29-2 (85.4%) -10: 40-158-2 (20.2%)
    O/U: 96-98-6 (0.46, 49.5%) avg total: 38.7 +6: 63-133-4 (32.1%) -6: 131-66-3 (66.5%) +10: 45-151-4 (23.0%) -10: 153-45-2 (77.3%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 28.0 111.7 31.6 192.1 18.3 1.9 4.2 5.2 3.9 5.0 18.4
    Opp 29.0 120.5 32.0 205.9 19.0 1.8 4.2 6.9 3.9 5.7 20.8
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  4. #29  
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    So not much advantage I think. Thanx
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  5. #30  
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    My records have teams off a Shutout Home Loss at 25-4 ATS if now in Week 10 or later of the NFL schedule. No Plays in at least 2 Seasons though.
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  6. #31  
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    I read just a little bit ago. If its a home shut out loss and they are at home it's 70% ATS
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  7. #32  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sunshine11 View Post
    I read just a little bit ago. If its a home shut out loss and they are at home it's 70% ATS
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  8. #33  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott L View Post
    My records have teams off a Shutout Home Loss at 25-4 ATS if now in Week 10 or later of the NFL schedule. No Plays in at least 2 Seasons though.
    week > 9 and p:HL and p:points = 0 and date > 19921201
    SU: 17-13-0 (0.87, 56.7%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 25-5-0 (6.42, 83.3%) avg line: 5.5 +6: 29-1-0 (96.7%) -6: 16-14-0 (53.3%) +10: 29-1-0 (96.7%) -10: 10-19-1 (34.5%)
    O/U: 10-19-1 (-1.75, 34.5%) avg total: 38.2 +6: 9-21-0 (30.0%) -6: 17-13-0 (56.7%) +10: 8-21-1 (27.6%) -10: 20-10-0 (66.7%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 29.6 112.9 29.5 187.2 17.0 1.7 4.7 5.0 2.9 5.8 18.7
    Opp 28.6 117.5 34.8 197.2 19.3 2.3 3.9 5.8 3.4 4.6 17.8
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  9. #34  
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    14-8 not to bad.
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  10. #35  
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    Thanks for the query results RT. Surprisingly it reveals these teams off the late season shutout loss, although they do cover at a good rate, are NOT doing so because of proper adjustments on OFFENSE. Good spot for UNDER as well
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  11. #36  
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    RT....thanks for posting all these different queries....last week had winners everywhere in cfb...didn't do a final tally
    but seemed like it was a high % of winners when I looked at it............
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  12. #37  
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    Thanks for posting.
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  13. #38  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    a couple more NFL from a new newsletter i subscribed to....


    1) week 2 teams with point spread +/- 3.5 of even vs opponent that just scored 30+ are 35-8 SU, 30-10-3 ATS (on Wash, on NYG). makes sense...vegas has no belief in that team despite 30+ points scored and probably overachieved last week


    2) teams blown out in week 1 divisional games are 11-1-1 ATS the following week (great angle but hou and cincy canceled each other out)


    3) home teams week 2 that lost away week 1 are 36-19-1 ATS L7 years (on NO, LAC, IND, SEA, NYG)


    4) game 2 dogs in 2nd of b2b divisional game are 17-5 ATS (on JAX, on CLE)


    5) oppose teams that played on the showcased opening thur game, 16-7-1 (on NO, on PHI) - interesting considering the extra prep time but keep in mind NO played monday while NE played previous Thur. those MON vs THU are usually very bad spread covers for the MON team (6 straight noncovers....see below...active 3 more times this year. Still prefer NO due to the public inflating this line which should be -3.5 or -4 max)


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  14. #39  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    UNDER conference game with team away from home that went under by 30+ in previous game. 32-80-4 o/u with great year to year consistency....CLEMSON under

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  15. #40  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    week 3 OVER winless dog scoring <=20 ppg and with turnover margin of 3 or less YTD. 30-6 o/u (CHI o, NYG o, NYJ o, NO o)


    week 3 tease or ML with big home favs vs winless opponent. 38-3 SU, 31-9-1 teaser (PHI, GB, CAR)


    week 3 OVER winless dog scoring <=20 ppg and with turnover margin of 3 or less YTD. 30-6 o/u (NO o, NYJ o, NYG o, CHI o)


    week 3 OVER 0-2 dog that was bad last year vs opponent that lost last week and had equal or better record LY. 34-14 o/u (SF o, CIN o)


    week 3 UNDER 2-0 away teams that won 5+ game and off a home win. 16-40 o/u (OAK u, PIT u, DEN u, KC u, ATL u)


    week 3 PLAY ON a 2-0 or 1-1 team off win not covering 2 games by 10+ vs a 0-2 or 1-1 team off loss, neither 13+ wins LY. 41-15 ATS (on ARIZ)


    PLAY ON away dog of 7+ after away dog win. 43-15 ATS (on HOU)


    OVER early season home team off b2b away games. 39-13 o/u (NYJ o, PHI o, ARI o)


    PLAY ON and OVER team after allowing an opponent WR to catch 12+ passes. 55-24 o/u, 50-32 ATS (SD and over)


    PLAY ON away team within 3 of pk'em off away loss. 71-28 ATS (on DAL)


    PLAY ON team that went under by 28+ not in a shutout. 49-19 ATS (on BUF, on CAR)


    OPPOSE winning favs off home dog win. 11-37 ATS (on BUF)


    PLAY ON home team off horrible offensive first half vs opponent that just scored 32+. 85-46 ATS (on BUF)


    OVER team off poor west coast game vs eastern team. 34-14 o/u (MIA o)


    _________________________________________________________________


    PLAY ON small dogs with decent defense that won 9 or less games LY. 246-129 ATS (on MICH ST)


    PLAY ON single digit dogs off bad rush defense game vs excellent rush defense. 110-63 ATS (on ARK, on UCF)


    OPPOSE team after allowing 37+ and playing team off b2b blowout wins. 63-131 ATS (on WVU)


    OPPOSE favs off OT game where they were >TD fav. 32-55 ATS (on CAL)... also meets 21-48 tightener


    PLAY ON away teams with good offense with 4 of pk'em. 210-95 ATS (on UCF, on DUKE, on ARMY, on UTAH) ... 173-69 tightener knocks out UCF only


    UNDER winning home dog on winning streak, both teams won 8+ LY. 29-65 o/u (IOWA u, COLO u)


    UNDER high total home team off b2b great defense vs opponent that allowed 27+. 55-91 o/u (EMU u, HOU u)


    OPPOSE bad rushing conference team vs good rush defense. 43-89 ATS (on USF)


    OPPOSE big dog off fav loss vs unbeaten opponent off TD+ win. 12-35 ATS (on WASH ST)


    PLAY ON home fav off blowout win vs opponent that just allowed a lot of points. 154-66 ATS (on VT, SoBama, OKST, HOU)


    OPPOSE away dog off conference dog win vs opponent off 10+ point win. 20-53 ATS (on UGA) ... fits 33-86 ATS too


    PLAY ON winning conference big home dogs off b2b wins vs opponent that did not cover by 5+ last week. 71-26 ATS (on CAL, on IOWA, on VANDY)


    PLAY ON away non-conference dog with revenge from big loss in last 2 seasons. 45-21 ATS (on UVA)


    UNDER away conference team that went under by 30+. 33-80 o/u (FIU under)


    PLAY ON away conference teams off b2b great rush defense and opponent bad rush defense. 69-29 ATS (on UTAH ST)


    PLAY ON home conference dog off b2b home loss. 28-9 ATS (on Missouri)


    PLAY ON big home conf fav off blowout win as a conf fav. 65-24 ATS (on CLEM)
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  16. #41  
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    NFL Road Fav, 7 days or less rest, off SUW by 1-6 points as Road Dog in previous game.
    0-14 SU + ATS ???
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  17. #42  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott L View Post
    NFL Road Fav, 7 days or less rest, off SUW by 1-6 points as Road Dog in previous game.
    0-14 SU + ATS ???
    teams with exactly 7 days rest are 3-0 ATS so when i make it 6 days or less it gets stronger but certainly not 14-0 against. let me mess around with a few parameters and see what i find, but here is the info:

    AF and rest < 7 and p:ADW and p:margin < 7
    SU: 14-26-0 (-2.45, 35.0%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 10-27-3 (-6.65, 27.0%) avg line: -4.2 +6: 14-25-1 (35.9%) -6: 6-33-1 (15.4%) +10: 23-17-0 (57.5%) -10: 4-36-0 (10.0%)
    O/U: 13-25-2 (-3.88, 34.2%) avg total: 40.0 +6: 6-33-1 (15.4%) -6: 27-13-0 (67.5%) +10: 4-36-0 (10.0%) -10: 28-12-0 (70.0%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 27.2 113.5 32.0 193.9 18.2 2.0 3.6 5.2 4.0 4.0 16.8
    Opp 29.3 109.2 32.6 205.1 19.0 1.6 4.8 4.8 2.9 6.7 19.3
    Showing 1 to 40 of 40 entries
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  18. #43  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott L View Post
    NFL Road Fav, 7 days or less rest, off SUW by 1-6 points as Road Dog in previous game.
    0-14 SU + ATS ???
    it REALLY tightens up nicely when the opponent did not get blown out last game but since that happened with the Jets last week it drops Miami from the very nice tightener

    A and line <= 0 and rest < 7 and p:ADW and p:margin < 7 and op:margin > -17
    SU: 8-26-0 (-5.56, 23.5%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 4-27-3 (-9.47, 12.9%) avg line: -3.9 +6: 8-25-1 (24.2%) -6: 3-31-0 (8.8%) +10: 17-16-1 (51.5%) -10: 2-32-0 (5.9%)
    O/U: 13-20-1 (-3.09, 39.4%) avg total: 40.4 +6: 6-27-1 (18.2%) -6: 24-10-0 (70.6%) +10: 4-30-0 (11.8%) -10: 25-9-0 (73.5%)
    Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    Team 26.1 111.4 32.4 190.2 18.8 2.1 3.8 4.6 3.4 4.0 15.9
    Opp 30.9 119.1 30.9 204.3 18.8 1.4 5.1 5.9 3.1 7.3 21.4
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  19. #44  
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    Which team or teams meet the above criteria for this week?
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  20. #45  
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    I'm going to reply if okay. If not I will start my own thread.

    I havent updated these in a couple years....so if someone can that would be good. Not necessarily this weeks games.

    Play against any teamin a non- conference gamewho won SUas a double digit road dog in last outing its oponent is off a SU win 40-16 ATS
    If the against team scored 22 or more 28-7 ATS.....Up that to 35 or more and a perfect 11-0 ATS
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  21. #46  
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    If a team lost SU on the road as a double digit favorite if on the road the next game 43-24 ATS. If they were favored by more than 10...lost to a non-conference opponent and are on the road again they are 19-2 ATS. Finally if those conditions are met and our team has winning %of .400 or better 13-0 ATS
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  22. #47  
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    NFl

    The league is 17- 0 ATS as a 7+ home dog after they suffered a 3+ turnover margin last week if the OU is more than 35
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  23. #48  
    113-12 with 5 titles in 9 years rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    I'm going to reply if okay. If not I will start my own thread.

    I havent updated these in a couple years....so if someone can that would be good. Not necessarily this weeks games.

    Play against any teamin a non- conference gamewho won SUas a double digit road dog in last outing its oponent is off a SU win 40-16 ATS
    If the against team scored 22 or more 28-7 ATS.....Up that to 35 or more and a perfect 11-0 ATS
    p:ADW and p:line > 9.5 and not C and op:W
    SU: 35-72-1 (-6.70, 32.7%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 39-64-1 (-3.39, 37.9%) avg line: 3.2

    p:ADW and p:line > 9.5 and not C and op:W and op:points > 21
    SU: 25-64-1 (-7.98, 28.1%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 31-56-1 (-3.71, 35.6%) avg line: 3.8

    p:ADW and p:line > 9.5 and not C and op:W and op:points > 34
    SU: 14-36-0 (-7.52, 28.0%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 20-29-0 (-2.41, 40.8%) avg line: 5.0
    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    If a team lost SU on the road as a double digit favorite if on the road the next game 43-24 ATS. If they were favored by more than 10...lost to a non-conference opponent and are on the road again they are 19-2 ATS. Finally if those conditions are met and our team has winning %of .400 or better 13-0 ATS
    drops to 18-8 with the 40% so just using prev non-conf double digit away loss and on road again....
    p:AFL and p:line < -9.5 and A and p:conference != o:conference
    SU: 17-22-0 (-1.03, 43.6%) Teaser Records
    ATS: 29-8-1 (4.93, 78.4%) avg line: 7.0 +6: 34-4-0 (89.5%) -6: 17-20-1 (45.9%) +10: 35-2-1 (94.6%) -10: 9-27-2 (25.0%)

    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    NFl

    The league is 17- 0 ATS as a 7+ home dog after they suffered a 3+ turnover margin last week if the OU is more than 35
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  24. #49  
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    Quote Originally Posted by rolltide View Post
    a couple more NFL from a new newsletter i subscribed to....


    1) week 2 teams with point spread +/- 3.5 of even vs opponent that just scored 30+ are 35-8 SU, 30-10-3 ATS (on Wash, on NYG). makes sense...vegas has no belief in that team despite 30+ points scored and probably overachieved last week


    2) teams blown out in week 1 divisional games are 11-1-1 ATS the following week (great angle but hou and cincy canceled each other out)


    3) home teams week 2 that lost away week 1 are 36-19-1 ATS L7 years (on NO, LAC, IND, SEA, NYG)


    4) game 2 dogs in 2nd of b2b divisional game are 17-5 ATS (on JAX, on CLE)


    5) oppose teams that played on the showcased opening thur game, 16-7-1 (on NO, on PHI) - interesting considering the extra prep time but keep in mind NO played monday while NE played previous Thur. those MON vs THU are usually very bad spread covers for the MON team (6 straight noncovers....see below...active 3 more times this year. Still prefer NO due to the public inflating this line which should be -3.5 or -4 max)



    Was a rough week for these "plays". Looks like they went 2-9 vs the spread. I'm sure it will be better this week.
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  25. #50  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    I'm going to reply if okay. If not I will start my own thread.

    I havent updated these in a couple years....so if someone can that would be good. Not necessarily this weeks games.

    Play against any teamin a non- conference gamewho won SUas a double digit road dog in last outing its oponent is off a SU win 40-16 ATS
    If the against team scored 22 or more 28-7 ATS.....Up that to 35 or more and a perfect 11-0 ATS
    I'm not sure where they got these stats from but you got totally different ATS then them. Maybe this isn't a good system

    The league is 17-0 ATS as a home dog after they suffered a 3+ turnover margin and the OU is greater than 35. 62% is pretty good, but is there anyway we can get information that adds the turnover margin of 3+ to the equation? i'd like to see if this system as good as it claims. I personally plaid it twice in those situations and both won
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