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Thanks for the work RT. Was looking at above angle to support Jets.
Over the years I've been given many systems by Lawrence, Barbose, Toby Scot, Taxi Driver. Most were accurate but most also fell toward 500 when I u$ed them for wagers so I've tossed most out. Can't remember who gave me that one.
yeah lawrence put one out this week, supposedly 21-1-1 ATS on the Lions, that I can't get better than 65% .... actually what got me into doing this was backchecking Rocky's newsletter and, to a lesser extent, the Playbook (ML) newsletter. ML does a great job but he's too invested into getting something to 8-0 ATS tightened from a 55-10 ATS system. I'd much rather know the 55-10 ....Originally Posted by Scott L
the one you posted is very good and I have saved the tightener so thx for posting
i already added previous turnover margin of 3 or greater. it's a 44-27 ATS spot. sorry it's not 17-0. Bears fit this week
HD and line > 6.5 andp:TOM > 2and total > 35
a rare one....
OVER with any team that lost SU despite allowing less than 10 points and had poor time of possession. 32-6 o/u (DEN/BUF o)
p:L and po:points < 10 and p:TOP < 2018 and season > 1994
SU: 17-21-0 (-3.05, 44.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 18-20-0 (-1.55, 47.4%) avg line: 1.5 +6: 22-16-0 (57.9%) -6: 15-23-0 (39.5%) +10: 25-11-2 (69.4%) -10: 8-29-1 (21.6%) O/U: 32-6-0 (11.43, 84.2%) avg total: 38.8 +6: 24-14-0 (63.2%) -6: 34-3-1 (91.9%) +10: 20-17-1 (54.1%) -10: 38-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.5 110.5 32.5 205.7 18.8 2.2 4.0 8.1 5.1 5.9 23.6 Opp 29.0 137.8 32.7 201.6 18.8 2.2 5.4 7.8 5.3 8.1 26.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2017 view Sunday 3 2017 Bills Broncos home 3.0 40.0
one reworked from newsletter
PLAY ON away dog of 3+ that were a playoff team last year and off a good defensive performance. 68-28 ATS (on NYG) 22-7 if a divisional game
___________________________________________________________________________
here is the PLAYBOOK newsletter NFL play of week vs the actual number. Not ripping on Lawrence at all, because he puts a hell of a lot of work into his stuff, but I can't make any sense out of his #'s....
this is a very simple query for me so you can't blame it on user error ;)
PLAY ON any NFL non-division home dog of 2 or more points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last year and are facing a foe off an ATS win of 7 or more points. 22-1-1 ATS since 1992 (on DET)
tpS(PO, N=2) >= 1 and HD and line > 1.5 and NDIV and WP > 50 and op:ats margin >= 7
SU: 5-5-0 (3.10, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 7-3-0 (7.40, 70.0%) avg line: 4.3 +6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 5-5-0 (50.0%) +10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 5-5-0 (50.0%) O/U: 5-5-0 (-1.50, 50.0%) avg total: 46.2 +6: 3-7-0 (30.0%) -6: 6-3-1 (66.7%) +10: 2-8-0 (20.0%) -10: 8-2-0 (80.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.8 125.3 36.1 255.8 23.2 1.2 3.4 10.8 3.8 5.9 23.9 Opp 23.9 99.0 34.4 247.0 22.0 2.3 3.8 5.4 5.4 5.9 20.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2017 view Sunday 3 2017 Lions Falcons home 3.5 49.5
with 2 weeks behind us in NFL it is worth seeing how teams have done in the past 7 years coming off b2b very good scoring weeks and b2b poor scoring weeks. dps=the expected points scored based on line and total. the NYG were negative dps in both weeks so would be worth a look vs philly
p:dps < 0 and pp:dps < 0 and season > 2009 and ...Showing 1 to 32 of 32 entries
games ATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)Avg Line OU
W - L- P (marg, %over)Avg Total SU
W - L- P (marg, %win)SDQL 21 15-6-0 (6.10, 71.4%) -1.2 10-10-1 (-2.02, 50.0%) 45.6 15-6-0 (7.29, 71.4%) Giants 15 10-4-1 (7.13, 71.4%) -5.2 10-5-0 (2.27, 66.7%) 46.7 13-2-0 (12.33, 86.7%) Patriots 27 17-8-2 (2.65, 68.0%) -1.4 13-13-1 (0.69, 50.0%) 42.9 18-9-0 (4.00, 66.7%) Seahawks 26 17-9-0 (2.37, 65.4%) 0.6 15-9-2 (2.85, 62.5%) 43.6 14-12-0 (1.73, 53.8%) Texans 23 15-8-0 (2.78, 65.2%) 5.0 13-9-1 (1.24, 59.1%) 45.0 9-14-0 (-2.26, 39.1%) Raiders 18 10-6-2 (5.28, 62.5%) -1.2 8-10-0 (-2.17, 44.4%) 42.9 11-7-0 (6.50, 61.1%) Bengals 19 11-8-0 (0.68, 57.9%) -1.7 12-7-0 (8.16, 63.2%) 48.0 9-10-0 (2.37, 47.4%) Saints 20 10-8-2 (2.02, 55.6%) 1.2 13-7-0 (6.62, 65.0%) 43.2 12-8-0 (0.80, 60.0%) Broncos 27 15-12-0 (1.17, 55.6%) 4.0 11-15-1 (-2.31, 42.3%) 41.6 12-15-0 (-2.81, 44.4%) Chiefs 18 10-8-0 (3.08, 55.6%) 2.3 7-10-1 (0.33, 41.2%) 45.8 10-8-0 (0.78, 55.6%) Colts 28 15-12-1 (3.02, 55.6%) 0.6 16-12-0 (0.02, 57.1%) 43.1 15-13-0 (2.39, 53.6%) Fortyniners 18 10-8-0 (0.69, 55.6%) 1.4 10-8-0 (3.47, 55.6%) 42.8 8-10-0 (-0.67, 44.4%) Vikings 27 14-12-1 (3.63, 53.8%) 0.8 18-9-0 (4.41, 66.7%) 42.7 15-12-0 (2.81, 55.6%) Bears 22 11-10-1 (3.00, 52.4%) 3.2 10-12-0 (0.84, 45.5%) 43.6 10-12-0 (-0.23, 45.5%) Panthers 25 13-12-0 (0.44, 52.0%) -2.4 11-13-1 (2.26, 45.8%) 42.8 15-10-0 (2.84, 60.0%) Steelers 22 11-11-0 (-1.41, 50.0%) 2.1 12-10-0 (3.89, 54.5%) 42.3 9-13-0 (-3.50, 40.9%) Bills 33 16-16-1 (0.38, 50.0%) 5.7 19-13-1 (4.42, 59.4%) 42.5 9-24-0 (-5.27, 27.3%) Jaguars 26 13-13-0 (1.27, 50.0%) -3.8 15-11-0 (4.79, 57.7%) 47.1 16-9-1 (5.08, 64.0%) Packers 21 10-10-1 (3.17, 50.0%) -1.3 15-6-0 (3.83, 71.4%) 42.7 15-6-0 (4.48, 71.4%) Ravens 31 15-16-0 (-1.11, 48.4%) 0.2 19-12-0 (0.95, 61.3%) 47.1 14-17-0 (-1.32, 45.2%) Eagles 26 12-13-1 (1.75, 48.0%) 2.2 10-16-0 (1.12, 38.5%) 42.8 11-15-0 (-0.50, 42.3%) Dolphins 23 11-12-0 (-1.46, 47.8%) 2.6 13-9-1 (1.09, 59.1%) 42.1 11-12-0 (-4.04, 47.8%) Cardinals 25 11-12-2 (-1.22, 47.8%) 2.7 11-14-0 (-1.86, 44.0%) 45.0 9-16-0 (-3.96, 36.0%) Redskins 18 8-9-1 (1.75, 47.1%) 0.8 12-6-0 (4.06, 66.7%) 44.7 7-11-0 (0.94, 38.9%) Cowboys 25 11-13-1 (-2.52, 45.8%) 2.2 11-14-0 (-0.96, 44.0%) 42.0 10-15-0 (-4.76, 40.0%) Jets 24 11-13-0 (0.81, 45.8%) 1.4 12-12-0 (0.17, 50.0%) 46.9 11-13-0 (-0.58, 45.8%) Lions 26 11-14-1 (-2.29, 44.0%) -0.7 8-18-0 (-3.06, 30.8%) 46.2 12-14-0 (-1.62, 46.2%) Falcons 29 12-17-0 (-3.52, 41.4%) 4.0 18-11-0 (5.05, 62.1%) 44.8 9-20-0 (-7.55, 31.0%) Buccaneers 29 12-17-0 (0.09, 41.4%) -1.5 14-14-1 (2.34, 50.0%) 45.4 16-13-0 (1.55, 55.2%) Chargers 29 12-17-0 (-2.29, 41.4%) 2.2 16-10-3 (1.62, 61.5%) 43.6 10-19-0 (-4.48, 34.5%) Titans 28 11-16-1 (-0.29, 40.7%) 5.7 9-19-0 (-3.29, 32.1%) 41.0 7-21-0 (-5.96, 25.0%) Browns 35 11-22-2 (-3.90, 33.3%) 4.9 18-17-0 (-0.36, 51.4%) 41.7 10-25-0 (-8.80, 28.6%) Rams
_____________________________________________________________________________________________-
p:dps > 0 and pp:dps > 0 and season > 2009 and ...Showing 1 to 32 of 32 entries
games ATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)Avg Line OU
W - L- P (marg, %over)Avg Total SU
W - L- P (marg, %win)SDQL 16 12-3-1 (4.50, 80.0%) 2.8 9-7-0 (3.62, 56.2%) 44.9 10-6-0 (1.69, 62.5%) Buccaneers 23 14-8-1 (0.67, 63.6%) 1.6 8-15-0 (-4.09, 34.8%) 44.3 14-9-0 (-0.91, 60.9%) Dolphins 24 14-10-0 (2.21, 58.3%) -3.2 9-15-0 (-1.98, 37.5%) 43.8 16-8-0 (5.38, 66.7%) Chiefs 32 18-13-1 (-0.55, 58.1%) -5.4 16-16-0 (-0.97, 50.0%) 49.1 22-10-0 (4.84, 68.8%) Packers 32 18-13-1 (3.89, 58.1%) -0.9 19-13-0 (3.08, 59.4%) 45.2 21-11-0 (4.75, 65.6%) Panthers 46 26-19-1 (4.74, 57.8%) -6.3 28-18-0 (1.26, 60.9%) 48.6 37-9-0 (11.04, 80.4%) Patriots 33 18-14-1 (2.73, 56.2%) -2.5 15-18-0 (0.74, 45.5%) 44.2 21-12-0 (5.18, 63.6%) Steelers 27 15-12-0 (-0.96, 55.6%) 2.4 14-11-2 (2.52, 56.0%) 44.0 12-14-1 (-3.37, 46.2%) Vikings 28 15-13-0 (-1.05, 53.6%) 2.6 13-15-0 (-0.29, 46.4%) 46.8 11-17-0 (-3.68, 39.3%) Redskins 30 15-13-2 (4.43, 53.6%) -3.3 18-12-0 (3.15, 60.0%) 42.0 17-13-0 (7.77, 56.7%) Seahawks 33 17-15-1 (-0.47, 53.1%) -2.6 22-9-2 (6.94, 71.0%) 50.8 18-15-0 (2.12, 54.5%) Saints 23 12-11-0 (-1.83, 52.2%) -1.4 10-11-2 (-0.09, 47.6%) 47.2 12-11-0 (-0.39, 52.2%) Giants 14 7-7-0 (-2.46, 50.0%) 2.0 4-9-1 (-5.18, 30.8%) 44.5 5-9-0 (-4.43, 35.7%) Jaguars 20 10-10-0 (0.45, 50.0%) 1.1 8-12-0 (-1.62, 40.0%) 46.3 10-10-0 (-0.65, 50.0%) Lions 23 11-11-1 (2.02, 50.0%) -2.2 6-16-1 (-4.43, 27.3%) 44.2 13-10-0 (4.26, 56.5%) Bengals 31 15-16-0 (2.16, 48.4%) -1.9 13-18-0 (0.00, 41.9%) 48.3 21-10-0 (4.06, 67.7%) Cowboys 29 14-15-0 (2.60, 48.3%) -2.3 15-13-1 (2.07, 53.6%) 49.7 17-12-0 (4.93, 58.6%) Falcons 23 11-12-0 (-1.93, 47.8%) -0.2 13-10-0 (-0.13, 56.5%) 42.4 9-14-0 (-1.78, 39.1%) Jets 17 8-9-0 (-2.91, 47.1%) -2.3 6-11-0 (-5.00, 35.3%) 43.9 8-9-0 (-0.65, 47.1%) Texans 30 13-15-2 (-1.97, 46.4%) 3.0 15-15-0 (0.02, 50.0%) 45.1 10-20-0 (-4.93, 33.3%) Bills 19 8-10-1 (-0.68, 44.4%) -3.1 5-14-0 (-3.79, 26.3%) 47.2 8-11-0 (2.37, 42.1%) Chargers 27 12-15-0 (-1.96, 44.4%) 1.6 15-9-3 (5.76, 62.5%) 45.0 12-15-0 (-3.52, 44.4%) Raiders 28 12-15-1 (0.84, 44.4%) -1.2 16-12-0 (0.50, 57.1%) 43.7 15-12-1 (2.07, 55.6%) Cardinals 31 13-18-0 (-1.50, 41.9%) -6.4 19-11-1 (3.89, 63.3%) 48.0 20-11-0 (4.90, 64.5%) Broncos 18 7-10-1 (-2.89, 41.2%) 1.8 9-8-1 (-0.89, 52.9%) 45.5 5-13-0 (-4.72, 27.8%) Bears 22 8-12-2 (-0.64, 40.0%) -2.5 8-14-0 (-1.70, 36.4%) 44.1 13-9-0 (1.86, 59.1%) Ravens 32 12-18-2 (-4.69, 40.0%) -0.2 18-14-0 (3.48, 56.2%) 47.2 14-18-0 (-4.53, 43.8%) Colts 27 10-16-1 (-1.54, 38.5%) -1.6 11-16-0 (-1.33, 40.7%) 48.4 13-14-0 (0.04, 48.1%) Eagles 20 7-12-1 (-5.20, 36.8%) -2.8 8-12-0 (-2.88, 40.0%) 42.2 9-11-0 (-2.45, 45.0%) Fortyniners 14 5-9-0 (0.29, 35.7%) 2.9 6-8-0 (-2.04, 42.9%) 43.0 4-10-0 (-2.64, 28.6%) Rams 17 5-12-0 (-4.65, 29.4%) 1.8 8-9-0 (-0.03, 47.1%) 42.1 3-14-0 (-6.47, 17.6%) Browns 14 2-12-0 (-5.54, 14.3%) 0.2 8-6-0 (3.89, 57.1%) 45.5 4-10-0 (-5.79, 28.6%) Titans
Does not apply this week. If you wan I can just post what applies. Because if it doesn't it might clog your thread and may get lost. But for future reference anyway. Your choice
The Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) offers plentyof opportunity to fine-tune systems and trends with thewealth of parameters available. This system starts off witha road team on grass off a double-digit road loss. The SDQLfor this situation isp:margin<=-10 and p:A and A and surface = grassNext we insist that they had single-digit wins in theprevious regular season and are facing a non-divisionopponent that had more regular season wins in the previousseason.NDIV and PRSW < o:PRSW and PRSW<10Note that NDIV is the SDQL shortcut for a game betweennon-divisional opponents and PRSW is the SDQL shortcut forprevious regular season wins.What all this adds up to is an overconfident home team.They are facing a team that:1. Is playing their second straight road game.2. Is off a double-digit loss.3. Has fewer wins than them.4. Had fewer than ten wins the previoous season.p:margin<=-10 and p:A and A and surface = grass andNDIV and PRSW < o:PRSW and PRSW<10 and date >=20031221This system is 35-3 ATS and what is really interesting isthat the system was 0-3 ATS 2011. If we exclude 2011, thesystem is a perfect 35-0 ATS. We can also get it perfect witha number of other “tweaks.” One is by insisting that theteam has a season-to-date rushing average of at least 3.3yards per rush and that their opponent is not on a 12-plusgame winning streak. These two modest requirementsbring the system to 33-0 ATS since December 21st, 2003.The complete SDQL for the 33-0 ATS system
He gave me a ton of stuff once 20 years ago in a 2 hour phonecall. This was back when he kept stuff by hand and found it by pouring through years of ATS logs (BTW worthless as it is I have every lined Football ATS line and score since 1974). He had names for all his systems.... "All Revved Up" .... "Hibernating Wolf" etc. I would keep them all until they would fail 3 straight and eventually they all did.
Mike Neri set up his original DB before he quit to go out on his own and put out all double digit chalk the last 20 years. Lawrence's son (who doubles as a professional thief) took it over. They have the DB set to run queries and juggle numbers around 24/7 until it produces something that's "never lost" they can promote. No one handicaps in that office anymore. But there is a 6 car garage next to his house so he did something right over the years.
This looks like its more back fitting data than being predictive.
Why would the past 7 years be relevant today?
Coaches change, players change, etc...
Any team fit this angle this week ??
well then don't analyze and stats at all, just toss coins in the air or trust what you watched on TV last week. players change weekly, coaches change monthly, and GM's change every few years so all previous stats must be irrelevant right?
it's called inforfuckingmation...do with it what you please
is this going to be your new schtick, biz? hit quote on everything typed and post some cunty one-liner to be cool? let me know as this is way too time consuming (AS YOU KNOW) to be dealing with bullshit
if you drop the surface and toss in a line parameter = Browns this week
p:margin < -13 and p:A and A and NDIV and PRSW < 10 and date >= 20031221 and PRSW < o:PRSW and line > -2.5 and line < 10.5
SU: 21-15-0 (0.81, 58.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 31-5-0 (6.54, 86.1%) avg line: 5.7 +6: 32-4-0 (88.9%) -6: 20-15-1 (57.1%) +10: 33-3-0 (91.7%) -10: 11-24-1 (31.4%) O/U: 18-17-1 (0.00, 51.4%) avg total: 41.9 +6: 12-22-2 (35.3%) -6: 24-12-0 (66.7%) +10: 8-28-0 (22.2%) -10: 27-8-1 (77.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.0 127.6 30.4 187.1 18.1 1.6 5.1 5.2 3.6 7.2 21.4 Opp 26.3 92.6 37.4 251.3 23.4 1.9 5.2 6.1 3.8 5.4 20.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2017 view Sunday 3 2017 Browns Colts away -1.5 40.5
Thank U Roll ... Cleveland it is !
not my stuff...was just playing around with what that other guy posted. too many backfits for me but the root reason for the success, a road team will play well after getting blown out on the road, has worked for many years. there are many systems for teams in 2nd of b2b away games, like Dallas and Cleveland this week, who played poorly in previous week. Now betting the hapless Browns as a road fav is something I'm not sure i could wager with real money
But they don't have fewer wins. They are both 0-2
thanks Rolltide!!
Props for schtick
One of my favorites. A girl named Lynn Zinser used to write a weekly NFL prediction column in the Philly Inky. She posted the Road Team off Road Loss by 31+ angle years ago and I followed it. I have it at 37-14 since 1990 with no plays last year and none so far this season.
PRSW = Previous Regular Season Wins
not current season wins which would have been wins<o:wins
please don't do this every time exploited or this will be a 200 page thread. i can't explain every query...not to mention this was the query YOU posted which even explained that "PRSW is the SDQL shortcut for previous regular season wins"
Its a perfectly reasonable question, where did I say analyzing stats is unreasonable??
I'm specifically talking about this ONE piece of information.
Why would a SPECIFIC team situation from 6-7 years ago be relevant TODAY?? Thats all I asked.
No need to be insulting, I can toss them around as well as anyone so why not just stay on point. Cunty one liner??
New schtick? Really Tide??
You might want to watch your tone, you are completely out of line here.
BTW Tide, this thread is filled with people quoting entire posts and leaving a comment. Did you throw a tantrum at the other 88 people that did the same thing??
RT- thank you for posting all of this. These are great tools that add value. Much appreciated l!!
I appreciate what Rolltide does but to be honest this happens every year in his threads. You either buy into or believe in 'systems' and incorporate them into your handicapping or you don't. No point in bashing it.
THANK YOU ROLLTiDE
Nobody is bashing anything. I use systems to aid my handicapping. I simply asked a question.
For years the Raiders have been awful in every aspect. Road games, playing on the East Coast, etc... If you went by past records for this team, you would have had many losers as over the last couple years they have won these games.....and that was my point when I said things change on specific teams.
Players - Carr, Cooper, Mack, etc...., GM - McKenzie replacing Al Davis, and coaches of which the Raiders are notorious for replacing constantly.
If you disagree then fine. But there is no reason to be rude.
As for the comment I made about back fitting data and having too many filters, I was referring to the system presented that had multiple filters. You can go on and on adding filters to tighten up the results, but the more filters you add the less predictive they become. Go into the Service Plays forum and look at some of the systems mentioned. You will see a 90% system that is 9-1 since 1997. It has filter after filter, and often times these 90% systems somehow lose that game. Why? Because its just random shit thrown together that isn't predictive.
SDQL sends out an email every day with systems, you can find them on YouTube, often times its undefeated over the last year or 8 years. But if you look at the filters, its not predictive. For example, Player A strikes out 2 or more times in the previous game, they have a "system" that shows the team going 12-0 OVER since 2016. Thats great, but if you look at the 3 previous years the Over is less than 50%. Why is the past year relevant but not the previous 3 years?? Its random.
There are patterns to randomness, randomness isn't just a hodgepodge of W's and L's. You will see streaks in randomness.
I have exchanged several emails over the years with Tide, he's a good dude. I am completely onboard with his use of systems, at times I disagree with some of the systems he puts together. Its just a difference of opinion. But I support what he does. He has some really good stuff.
This is a handicapping forum, we exchange opinions and ideas. I have a friend who is a professional handicapper, he doesn't buy in to much of what I do. We have exchanges where we disagree, but I don't refer to his opinions as "cunty" and he doesn't have a "schtick". He has opinions and has reasons for those opinions.....as do I. We agree to disagree in a respectful manner. This forum should be no different.
what's completely silly is that BIZ is a user and believer in this data so he was just coming in here to be a jerkoff...no idea why at all
and yes, BIZ, how the Giants perform off b2b games for the past 7 years does matter. sure, maybe it doesn't matter what they did specifically 6 or 7 years ago vs what they've done in the past 3 seasons but all you have to do is click on the link i provided and you find the Giants most recent 11 games in this spot they have covered 9. That doesn't mean to jump on NYG but it's information for people to use in capping their games.
same, shit different year but wouldn't expected it from you, BIZ. but looking at your recent posting history it seems I'm not the only guy on your hit list.
I better not post the Eagles 31-1 over system because Wentz wasn't the QB for all 32 games, right? ridiculous. come on, biz...wtf?
we all know this thread will end in a few weeks because people can't just enjoy free, detailed information without being assholes but simply wouldn't have expected you to jump on the train
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