Best Super Bowl LII, over/under bets
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
ESPN Chalk released its team-by-team betting guide for all 32 NFL teams on Wednesday. On Thursday, we turn our attention to the futures market, taking a look at where our experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) believe the value lies with Super Bowl LII bets and season win totals.
Best Super Bowl LII value bets
Carolina Panthers (30-1)
Steele: It was only two years ago that the Panthers had 15-1 odds and ended up being favored in the Super Bowl. The talent is comparable to that group but everything that could go wrong did in 2016, and they fell to 6-10.
How will each NFL team fare against the spread? Are its over/under win totals or Super Bowl LII odds worth a bet? Mike Clay and Phil Steele give a comprehensive betting preview of all 32 teams heading into the 2017 season.
I think they will have one of the most improved special teams in the NFL and I'm banking on Cam Newton looking more like the Cam of 2015 than the 2016 version. At 30-1, there is some value with this veteran team, and I like the addition of Christian McCaffrey.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-1)
Steele: I have New England winning the AFC, but once again they are the preseason favorites with the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl that I can remember at 11-4. Pittsburgh is a legitimate threat and the window is closing for Ben Roethlisberger. He has an exceptional receiving corps and offensive line, and hopefully Le'Veon Bell's holdout will not affect his season. The defense ranked in the lower half of the NFL in both 2014 and 2015 but improved to No. 12 last year and should improve again.
Rynning: It seems the large majority of experts have already penciled in the Patriots to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but the Steelers loom large in the NFL landscape. When healthy, Pittsburgh's potential for the best offense in the league is real. Roethlisberger has evolved into more of a caretaker, but is still capable of the big play. Very few teams if any can match the duo of Bell and Antonio Brown, while the return of Martavis Bryant represents the Z factor. Defense has been the issue for Pittsburgh, but the unit finished the 2016 season ranked 12th in total defense and favorably in advanced metrics. The signing of Joe Haden, if he returns to form, is the exact type of player this defense needed against the better quarterbacks of the league. The schedule lightens up as well this year, as the Steelers face the AFC South and NFC North.
Arizona Cardinals (40-1)
Sharp: If we want to talk about a team outside the top-10 odds with a realistic shot, I think Arizona could be in the conversation, as I believe they'll make the postseason. They have the edge of playing the Colts in Week 2, likely without Andrew Luck, play only seven true road games and have five total games against the 49ers, Rams and Jaguars.
Philadelphia Eagles (40-1)
Sharp: If we're talking deep long shot, I'll go with the Eagles. They're projected as a bottom-half team, but if they can get their secondary to come together, they are a dark horse in my eyes. Their offensive line should be healthier and I think Carson Wentz can take the next step. If they can remain healthy, they have a solid ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Best over/under bets
Tennessee Titans (over 9 wins)
Rynning: The Titans took a crucial step forward last season, winning nine games after combining for just five wins the prior two seasons. Figuratively, the Titans took their stride forward with the play of their second-year franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota, as he had a TD-INT ratio of 26-9. The 24-year-old possesses the big-time talent to ramp his play forward again this season. He has been given more pieces to work with in the passing game this season with the Titans using first- and third-round draft picks on the wide receiver position, and signing Eric Decker as well. Paired with tight end Delanie Walker and a threatening ground game, the offense will continue to show improvement.
A key weakness for the Titans was a wobbly pass defense last year that ranked 30th in the NFL. They've essentially retooled the entire secondary including adding Logan Ryan and Jonathan Cyprien. the opposing AFC South quarterback situation is murky in Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis. Look for the Titans to win double-digit games and their division.
Steele: The Westgate had three AFC South teams priced at 8.5 wins, before they moved the numbers. I like the Titans the best, so this is one of my stronger plays. FPI has them at only 8.3, but CG Technology has them favored in nine with two pick-em games. My main set of power ratings has them at 11 wins, so this is one of my stronger plays on over 9.
Washington Redskins (under 7.5)
Rynning: The Redskins lost their two most important organizational players in the offseason that actually don't suit up on Sunday in offensive coordinator Sean McVay and player personnel guru Scot McCloughan. McVay had this offense humming last year ranking third in the NFL and second in passing. They also lost wide receivers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, who accounted for 41 percent of Kirk Cousins' passing yards a year ago. The onus will fall on tight end Jordan Reed, who is effective but injury prone.
Of course, when this offense eventually goes sour this year, it will be Cousins with one foot out the door. The Redskins finished the 2016 campaign ranked 28th in total defense. They've made minor improvements, including the addition of safety DJ Swearinger and first-round pick Johnathan Allen, but the unit still lacks difference-makers. The schedule is difficult and especially littered with top-notch defensive teams. The Redskins peaked with their current regime as they return to the cellar of the NFC East this season.
Arizona Cardinals (under 8.5)
Steele: FPI has this right at the number, but CG Technology has the Cards favored in nine games this year. All five sets of my power ratings have them with a winning season, and three calling for double digit wins. Playing the Rams and 49ers twice each might mean they only need to go 5-7 in the rest of their games to hit the over, and with that 28-12 record outside the West. This is one of my favorite plays on the over.
Pittsburgh Steelers (over 10.5)
Steele: The major question in my mind is whether or not Roethlisberger and Bell play in the majority of the Steelers' games, as that has been a problem in recent years. How long will it take Bell to get up to full speed after sitting out the preseason? Once again, I'm aligned with CG Technology, which has Pittsburgh favored in 15 games this year, (they're an underdog at home vs. New England) which lines up with my main set of power ratings. The good folks over at FPI have them at 10.1 wins. I like over 10.5 as one of my top plays.
San Francisco 49ers (under 5)
Steele: FPI actually has the Niners at 5.1 wins, right at the Vegas number. Vegas has them favored in one game this year, their home game versus the Rams. Only five times this year are they an underdog of less than a touchdown. The most optimistic of my computer ratings has them at four wins, with all the rest at three or less. I like the under.
Seattle Seahawks (over 10.5)
Steele: Seattle has actually only won 10 games each of the past two years, but I think this team has an upgraded offensive line, and the defense will be healthier. CG Technology has the Seahawks as an underdog at Green Bay and Dallas. They also have them favored in 14 games, and all five sets of my computer ratings call for them to get to at least 13 wins. I am taking over as one of my stronger plays.
Los Angeles Chargers (over 7.5)
Clay: This is the easiest call I'll make this year. The Chargers' injury luck has been absolutely brutal for five consecutive years, but this team is too good on paper to ignore.
Philadelphia Eagles (over 8.5)
Clay: The Eagles went 7-9 last year despite a plus-36 scoring differential (ninth best); historically speaking, that suggests the sub-.500 record was a fluke. This team is much better on paper than it was in 2017 and positioned for a run at the NFC East title.
Buffalo Bills (under 6.5)
Clay: This is a bad football team that showed it wasn't planning to compete in 2017 when it traded away Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby (not to mention Reggie Ragland).
Detroit Lions (under 7.5)
Clay: The Lions snuck into the playoffs in 2016 with a 9-7 record despite one of the league's worst defenses, and they did a poor job improving the unit during the offseason. Expect the Lions to regress in 2017.
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
ESPN Chalk released its team-by-team betting guide for all 32 NFL teams on Wednesday. On Thursday, we turn our attention to the futures market, taking a look at where our experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) believe the value lies with Super Bowl LII bets and season win totals.
Best Super Bowl LII value bets
Carolina Panthers (30-1)
Steele: It was only two years ago that the Panthers had 15-1 odds and ended up being favored in the Super Bowl. The talent is comparable to that group but everything that could go wrong did in 2016, and they fell to 6-10.
How will each NFL team fare against the spread? Are its over/under win totals or Super Bowl LII odds worth a bet? Mike Clay and Phil Steele give a comprehensive betting preview of all 32 teams heading into the 2017 season.
I think they will have one of the most improved special teams in the NFL and I'm banking on Cam Newton looking more like the Cam of 2015 than the 2016 version. At 30-1, there is some value with this veteran team, and I like the addition of Christian McCaffrey.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-1)
Steele: I have New England winning the AFC, but once again they are the preseason favorites with the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl that I can remember at 11-4. Pittsburgh is a legitimate threat and the window is closing for Ben Roethlisberger. He has an exceptional receiving corps and offensive line, and hopefully Le'Veon Bell's holdout will not affect his season. The defense ranked in the lower half of the NFL in both 2014 and 2015 but improved to No. 12 last year and should improve again.
Rynning: It seems the large majority of experts have already penciled in the Patriots to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but the Steelers loom large in the NFL landscape. When healthy, Pittsburgh's potential for the best offense in the league is real. Roethlisberger has evolved into more of a caretaker, but is still capable of the big play. Very few teams if any can match the duo of Bell and Antonio Brown, while the return of Martavis Bryant represents the Z factor. Defense has been the issue for Pittsburgh, but the unit finished the 2016 season ranked 12th in total defense and favorably in advanced metrics. The signing of Joe Haden, if he returns to form, is the exact type of player this defense needed against the better quarterbacks of the league. The schedule lightens up as well this year, as the Steelers face the AFC South and NFC North.
Arizona Cardinals (40-1)
Sharp: If we want to talk about a team outside the top-10 odds with a realistic shot, I think Arizona could be in the conversation, as I believe they'll make the postseason. They have the edge of playing the Colts in Week 2, likely without Andrew Luck, play only seven true road games and have five total games against the 49ers, Rams and Jaguars.
Philadelphia Eagles (40-1)
Sharp: If we're talking deep long shot, I'll go with the Eagles. They're projected as a bottom-half team, but if they can get their secondary to come together, they are a dark horse in my eyes. Their offensive line should be healthier and I think Carson Wentz can take the next step. If they can remain healthy, they have a solid ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Best over/under bets
Tennessee Titans (over 9 wins)
Rynning: The Titans took a crucial step forward last season, winning nine games after combining for just five wins the prior two seasons. Figuratively, the Titans took their stride forward with the play of their second-year franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota, as he had a TD-INT ratio of 26-9. The 24-year-old possesses the big-time talent to ramp his play forward again this season. He has been given more pieces to work with in the passing game this season with the Titans using first- and third-round draft picks on the wide receiver position, and signing Eric Decker as well. Paired with tight end Delanie Walker and a threatening ground game, the offense will continue to show improvement.
A key weakness for the Titans was a wobbly pass defense last year that ranked 30th in the NFL. They've essentially retooled the entire secondary including adding Logan Ryan and Jonathan Cyprien. the opposing AFC South quarterback situation is murky in Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis. Look for the Titans to win double-digit games and their division.
Steele: The Westgate had three AFC South teams priced at 8.5 wins, before they moved the numbers. I like the Titans the best, so this is one of my stronger plays. FPI has them at only 8.3, but CG Technology has them favored in nine with two pick-em games. My main set of power ratings has them at 11 wins, so this is one of my stronger plays on over 9.
Washington Redskins (under 7.5)
Rynning: The Redskins lost their two most important organizational players in the offseason that actually don't suit up on Sunday in offensive coordinator Sean McVay and player personnel guru Scot McCloughan. McVay had this offense humming last year ranking third in the NFL and second in passing. They also lost wide receivers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, who accounted for 41 percent of Kirk Cousins' passing yards a year ago. The onus will fall on tight end Jordan Reed, who is effective but injury prone.
Of course, when this offense eventually goes sour this year, it will be Cousins with one foot out the door. The Redskins finished the 2016 campaign ranked 28th in total defense. They've made minor improvements, including the addition of safety DJ Swearinger and first-round pick Johnathan Allen, but the unit still lacks difference-makers. The schedule is difficult and especially littered with top-notch defensive teams. The Redskins peaked with their current regime as they return to the cellar of the NFC East this season.
Arizona Cardinals (under 8.5)
Steele: FPI has this right at the number, but CG Technology has the Cards favored in nine games this year. All five sets of my power ratings have them with a winning season, and three calling for double digit wins. Playing the Rams and 49ers twice each might mean they only need to go 5-7 in the rest of their games to hit the over, and with that 28-12 record outside the West. This is one of my favorite plays on the over.
Pittsburgh Steelers (over 10.5)
Steele: The major question in my mind is whether or not Roethlisberger and Bell play in the majority of the Steelers' games, as that has been a problem in recent years. How long will it take Bell to get up to full speed after sitting out the preseason? Once again, I'm aligned with CG Technology, which has Pittsburgh favored in 15 games this year, (they're an underdog at home vs. New England) which lines up with my main set of power ratings. The good folks over at FPI have them at 10.1 wins. I like over 10.5 as one of my top plays.
San Francisco 49ers (under 5)
Steele: FPI actually has the Niners at 5.1 wins, right at the Vegas number. Vegas has them favored in one game this year, their home game versus the Rams. Only five times this year are they an underdog of less than a touchdown. The most optimistic of my computer ratings has them at four wins, with all the rest at three or less. I like the under.
Seattle Seahawks (over 10.5)
Steele: Seattle has actually only won 10 games each of the past two years, but I think this team has an upgraded offensive line, and the defense will be healthier. CG Technology has the Seahawks as an underdog at Green Bay and Dallas. They also have them favored in 14 games, and all five sets of my computer ratings call for them to get to at least 13 wins. I am taking over as one of my stronger plays.
Los Angeles Chargers (over 7.5)
Clay: This is the easiest call I'll make this year. The Chargers' injury luck has been absolutely brutal for five consecutive years, but this team is too good on paper to ignore.
Philadelphia Eagles (over 8.5)
Clay: The Eagles went 7-9 last year despite a plus-36 scoring differential (ninth best); historically speaking, that suggests the sub-.500 record was a fluke. This team is much better on paper than it was in 2017 and positioned for a run at the NFC East title.
Buffalo Bills (under 6.5)
Clay: This is a bad football team that showed it wasn't planning to compete in 2017 when it traded away Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby (not to mention Reggie Ragland).
Detroit Lions (under 7.5)
Clay: The Lions snuck into the playoffs in 2016 with a 9-7 record despite one of the league's worst defenses, and they did a poor job improving the unit during the offseason. Expect the Lions to regress in 2017.
