How to bet Kansas City-New England
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for the very first game of the season, a Thursday night showdown between Kansas City and New England. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday evening.
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Spread: Opened New England -7.5 (on April 21); now New England -9
Total: Opened 50; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent on New England
Phil Steele
Kansas City has won six straight road games, including wins at Oakland, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta. Andy Reid is 43-21 with the Chiefs, and he has been an underdog of 6 or more just four times. New England was 13-3 ATS last year, so you're paying a premium on the Patriots here. The Pats have had a top-10 offense and defense each of the past two years, while Kansas City has averaged No. 17 in those units in total yards during that span. Kansas City wins when producing turnovers and special-teams plays, and New England simply does not give opponents those opportunities.
ATS pick: New England -9
Erin Rynning
The much-hyped and potentially pointspread-taxed Patriots open the 2017 NFL season against an Reid-helmed Chiefs squad that should be prepared for this matchup. This was the meeting Kansas City envisioned last year in the playoffs before it bowed out to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams play a bend-and-don't-break style on both offense and defense, which could set up for a lower-scoring game. In addition, the Patriots can be expected to attack the underbelly of the soft interior-run defense the Chiefs possessed a season ago. Finally, both teams are well-coordinated on defense, with ample attention paid to playmakers such as the Patriots' Brandin Cooks and Chiefs' Tyreek Hill. I expect few fireworks in the opener, so I'll lean under the total.
Pick: Lean under 49
Warren Sharp
The Chiefs will be without their slot CB Steven Nelson on Thursday (and for at least half of the season), so you can bet that Bill Belichick will be focused on that mismatch. We could potentially see Chris Hogan shift into the slot, making him a likely candidate to record a very strong performance. I believe the Patriots will present a balanced attack with their new weapons at running back, forcing the Chiefs out of their defensive comfort zone; last year, the Chiefs used six or more DBs at the third-highest rate in the NFL and rarely used more than three to four pass-rushers.
Once that happens, the Patriots should be able to get enough chunk gains through the air that Kansas City won't be able to keep up. The Chiefs are an NFL-worst 0-14 ATS when they don't win the turnover battle and are held without a return TD, dating back to 2014, and they'll likely need one or both to happen to pull off this win.
ATS pick: Pass
Prop bets
229.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Including playoff games, Smith has only two career starts versus a Bill Belichick Patriots defense. He threw for more than 245 yards in each game -- in Week 4 of 2014, Smith needed only 26 passes to throw for 248 yards and three scores in a 41-14 rout at Arrowhead Stadium. The Patriots and Chiefs met in the AFC Divisional Round in Foxborough the next year, a game in which necessity turned Smith into a volume shooter. He tied a career high with 50 pass attempts, but his 24 extra passes netted him two fewer yards in a 27-20 loss.
Smith is the ultimate known commodity at this point -- he'll protect the ball, with a 1.5 percent interception percentage over the past five years that trails only Brady and Aaron Rodgers among quarterbacks with 500 passes. He also has a modest 7.0 yards per attempt average under Reid (which would require 33 attempts to hit the over). That's not an unreasonable figure for Smith. Consider that 25 of the 37 starting regular-season or playoff quarterbacks against the Patriots since 2015 have hit 33 attempts, while three of the 12 who didn't were injured in the game. It looks like an over, even before factoring in how prolific the Patriots offense still looks without Julian Edelman and slot cornerback Steven Nelson's presence on injured reserve.
The play: over (-110)
3.5 combined sacks by both teams (over -140, under +120)
These aren't easy quarterbacks to bring down. Brady took 1.3 sacks per game last year, third fewest in the league, while Smith was also under 2.0 sacks per game. The Patriots' offense is a study in timing -- elite pre-snap recognition coupled with the precision of his receivers helps the now 40-year-old quarterback avoid trouble. Brady had the fifth-lowest average time in pocket in the league last year (2.17 seconds per play). As mentioned above, Nelson's injury could leave a major mismatch even without Edelman -- top cornerback Marcus Peters played 93 percent of his cornerback snaps on the left perimeter of the defense. Expect Brady to have plenty of opportunities to get the ball out quickly to Brandin Cooks, Hogan & Co.
Also, don't expect the Patriots to get to Smith much either. Smith is one of two passers with an average throw distance below 7.0 yards last year, meaning he also gets the ball out quickly. In fact, Smith had the shortest time in pocket and time before pass averages in the league last year. New England's pass rush looks like the weakest part of the roster. Veteran Rob Ninkovich retired, while Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long left in free agency. A trade for Kony Ealy didn't work out, as he was released and signed with the Jets. Trey Flowers is the only Patriot on the roster with at least four sacks last year. This wouldn't be a bad play at over/under -110, so with the extra incentive the under looks good.
The play: under +120
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for the very first game of the season, a Thursday night showdown between Kansas City and New England. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday evening.
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Spread: Opened New England -7.5 (on April 21); now New England -9
Total: Opened 50; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent on New England
Phil Steele
Kansas City has won six straight road games, including wins at Oakland, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta. Andy Reid is 43-21 with the Chiefs, and he has been an underdog of 6 or more just four times. New England was 13-3 ATS last year, so you're paying a premium on the Patriots here. The Pats have had a top-10 offense and defense each of the past two years, while Kansas City has averaged No. 17 in those units in total yards during that span. Kansas City wins when producing turnovers and special-teams plays, and New England simply does not give opponents those opportunities.
ATS pick: New England -9
Erin Rynning
The much-hyped and potentially pointspread-taxed Patriots open the 2017 NFL season against an Reid-helmed Chiefs squad that should be prepared for this matchup. This was the meeting Kansas City envisioned last year in the playoffs before it bowed out to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams play a bend-and-don't-break style on both offense and defense, which could set up for a lower-scoring game. In addition, the Patriots can be expected to attack the underbelly of the soft interior-run defense the Chiefs possessed a season ago. Finally, both teams are well-coordinated on defense, with ample attention paid to playmakers such as the Patriots' Brandin Cooks and Chiefs' Tyreek Hill. I expect few fireworks in the opener, so I'll lean under the total.
Pick: Lean under 49
Warren Sharp
The Chiefs will be without their slot CB Steven Nelson on Thursday (and for at least half of the season), so you can bet that Bill Belichick will be focused on that mismatch. We could potentially see Chris Hogan shift into the slot, making him a likely candidate to record a very strong performance. I believe the Patriots will present a balanced attack with their new weapons at running back, forcing the Chiefs out of their defensive comfort zone; last year, the Chiefs used six or more DBs at the third-highest rate in the NFL and rarely used more than three to four pass-rushers.
Once that happens, the Patriots should be able to get enough chunk gains through the air that Kansas City won't be able to keep up. The Chiefs are an NFL-worst 0-14 ATS when they don't win the turnover battle and are held without a return TD, dating back to 2014, and they'll likely need one or both to happen to pull off this win.
ATS pick: Pass
Prop bets
229.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Including playoff games, Smith has only two career starts versus a Bill Belichick Patriots defense. He threw for more than 245 yards in each game -- in Week 4 of 2014, Smith needed only 26 passes to throw for 248 yards and three scores in a 41-14 rout at Arrowhead Stadium. The Patriots and Chiefs met in the AFC Divisional Round in Foxborough the next year, a game in which necessity turned Smith into a volume shooter. He tied a career high with 50 pass attempts, but his 24 extra passes netted him two fewer yards in a 27-20 loss.
Smith is the ultimate known commodity at this point -- he'll protect the ball, with a 1.5 percent interception percentage over the past five years that trails only Brady and Aaron Rodgers among quarterbacks with 500 passes. He also has a modest 7.0 yards per attempt average under Reid (which would require 33 attempts to hit the over). That's not an unreasonable figure for Smith. Consider that 25 of the 37 starting regular-season or playoff quarterbacks against the Patriots since 2015 have hit 33 attempts, while three of the 12 who didn't were injured in the game. It looks like an over, even before factoring in how prolific the Patriots offense still looks without Julian Edelman and slot cornerback Steven Nelson's presence on injured reserve.
The play: over (-110)
3.5 combined sacks by both teams (over -140, under +120)
These aren't easy quarterbacks to bring down. Brady took 1.3 sacks per game last year, third fewest in the league, while Smith was also under 2.0 sacks per game. The Patriots' offense is a study in timing -- elite pre-snap recognition coupled with the precision of his receivers helps the now 40-year-old quarterback avoid trouble. Brady had the fifth-lowest average time in pocket in the league last year (2.17 seconds per play). As mentioned above, Nelson's injury could leave a major mismatch even without Edelman -- top cornerback Marcus Peters played 93 percent of his cornerback snaps on the left perimeter of the defense. Expect Brady to have plenty of opportunities to get the ball out quickly to Brandin Cooks, Hogan & Co.
Also, don't expect the Patriots to get to Smith much either. Smith is one of two passers with an average throw distance below 7.0 yards last year, meaning he also gets the ball out quickly. In fact, Smith had the shortest time in pocket and time before pass averages in the league last year. New England's pass rush looks like the weakest part of the roster. Veteran Rob Ninkovich retired, while Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long left in free agency. A trade for Kony Ealy didn't work out, as he was released and signed with the Jets. Trey Flowers is the only Patriot on the roster with at least four sacks last year. This wouldn't be a bad play at over/under -110, so with the extra incentive the under looks good.
The play: under +120
