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Thread: On The Hop's 2017 NFL Football

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  1. #51  
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    10/22/2017 (22-31-1, -14.15u)

    Well, the year of "I was on the right side but lost" combined with "this guy couldn't pick an NFL game if it was stuck in his nose" continues. Adjusting a few things this week. Hopefully that helps. For those of you that have been smart enough to fade my steaming pile of shit picks each week, tread lightly. As always, appreciate those that have checked in and offered feedback.

    Minnesota Vikings -5 (-110), 1 unit: Played this one earlier in the week and shockingly the line moved against me. Anyway, I just don't see how the Ravens patchwork O line contains the Vikings D line. Keenum has been good enough to win games and with the home crowd sensing a division win (due to the win last week and the Rodgers injury) is very much in their grasp, look for the Vikings to get it done today.

    Buffalo Bills -3 (-105), 2 units: Guess who has the second best (adjusted) D in the NFL? Guess who is coming off a bye and playing at home for the first time in a month? Guess who is playing a team that has dropped two stinky turds on the road? Guess whose fans like to have sex in the parking lot before games?

    Green Bay Packers +4 (-110), 1 unit: Missed the best number on this but I just don't trust Brees and the Saints to give that many on the road. Look for the Pack to control the clock and manage the game with Jones and with Hundley throwing short, quick passes. Very few if any teams looked better than the Saints last week and in the NFL, you know what that means.

    San Francisco 49ers +7 (-120), 1 unit: People are going to lose in the late games. This is the most obvious "Joe Public" late game pick where the world will be loading up on Dallas. The Niners have been in every game this year and while their offense doesn't stack up with the Cowboys their defense does and I think they're in the game the whole way.

    Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-115), 1 unit:
    Let me get this straight....the Falcons lost at home last week to the Dolphins. Now, they're going to New England to face the public's favorite team led by the World's Greatest QB and they're only getting 3.5? Should be a shootout with two great offenses facing two bad defenses. What's the difference? First, the Falcons can run the ball. Second, motivation. Atlanta got caught looking ahead last week in a revenge spot. I like the motivated team getting more than a FG.
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  2. #52  
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    Best of luck OTH
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  3. #53  
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    Thanks and good luck today....
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  4. #54  
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    Chicago Bears +3 (-115), 1 unit: Weather just shifted dramatically here. Cold, windy, rainy. Not sure how Carolina moves the ball. Bears have been very good at home and with Keuchly out I like their chances.

    Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115), 1 unit: This game finally hit a number that I can’t avoid. I may be wrong but at this number it has to be a play for me.
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  5. #55  
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    ​Seattle Seahawks/New York Giants 2H o19.5 (-115), 1/2 unit
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  6. #56  
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    Atlanta Falcons +3 (-115), 1.5 units: Misread the market on this. Locked in 3.5 earlier (shown above) but thought it would continue to climb throughout the day or as people chased. Nope. Looks like it's going to 2.5. I'm going to take the 3 while it's still available.
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  7. #57  
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    Washington Redskins +5 (-110), 1 unit
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  8. #58  
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    Last week actually felt much better. The mistake was loving the Falcons. At least my reads are getting better from an overall perspective. I’m bringing a few other factors into play now as well so hopefully things start to change. I want to be really clear, I’m not complaining. These aren’t bad beats for the most part (ok, the Colts a few weeks ago sucked). I’m just trying to give info so that those that are fading my picks know if/when to stop.

    10/26/2017 (26-36-2, -16.85u)

    Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110), 1 unit
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  9. #59  
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    Interesting card this week. Previously I would have forced some plays, tried not to do that this week. May look for some in game opportunities instead.

    10/29/2017 (27-36-2, -15.85u)

    Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 (-115), 1 unit:
    If nothing else it looks like I'm on the right side of the line movement. Still don't trust the Pats D even after they showed me I was wrong last week. Chargers could easily be 5-2 and I think they hang with New England and have a shot at the end.

    New York Jets +7 (-115), 1 unit: This finally got to a point where I could not ignore it. The Falcons and specifically their offense just should not be laying a TD on the road to anyone. The Jets have been surprisingly respectable at home and I expect that to continue today.

    ​New Orleans Saints -1.5/Washington Redskins +9.5 (-110), 2 units
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  10. #60  
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    New Orleans Saints 2H -3 (-110), 1/2 unit
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  11. #61  
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    Yeah...so when I said there were no bad beats just bad plays...losing the Skins teaser that way qualifies as a bad beat. I never get those breaks.

    The only bad play today was the Saints 2H and yet somehow I got crushed.

    I know I have the right side tonight and yet I’m not going to play it because I’ve completely lost confidence.
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    10/30/2017 (28-39-2, -18.75)

    Denver Broncos +7 (-105), 1 unit
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  13. #63  
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    Adds:

    Denver Broncos +7 (EVEN), 1/2 unit

    Denver Broncos 1H +4 (+105), 1 unit
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  14. #64  
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    Starting a new method of breaking down games. Pretty clear the old way was not working!!!

    11/2/2017 (28-42-2, -21.3)

    New York Jets +3 (-105), 1 unit
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  15. #65  
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    Disclaimer (AGAIN): changed the way I am looking at things. No reason for writeups until I see if it helps. Besides, the only thing you should have been reading the writeups for are 1) comedy and 2) fades!!!!

    11/5/2017 (29-42-2, 20.3)

    [455] Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 (-110), 1 unit

    [457] Cincinnati Bengals +6 (-110), 1 unit

    [464] Tennessee Titans -3 (-115), 1 unit

    [468] Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110), 2 units

    [470] Dallas Cowboys -1 (-120), 2 units

    [471] Oakland Raiders -3 (-110), 2 units
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    Thanks and good luck today...
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  17. #67  
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    Two pieces of good news:

    1. Late, relatively meaningless scores by Baltimore and Miami turned wins into pushes. Those games win and its a different story. I feel like I am on the right track with this new system.

    2. College hoops starts Friday. I tend to fk that up less.

    [474] Green Bay Packers +2 (-110), 1 unit
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    Good luck buddy
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  19. #69  
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    Quote Originally Posted by On The Hop View Post
    Two pieces of good news:

    1. Late, relatively meaningless scores by Baltimore and Miami turned wins into pushes. Those games win and it’s a different story. I feel like I am on the right track with this new system.

    2. College hoops starts Friday. I tend to f—k that up less.

    [474] Green Bay Packers +2 (-110), 1 unit

    Good luck tonight....
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    11/9/2017 (30-46-4, -23.8)

    Have to trust my numbers. They say there is a huge advantage here with Arizona, especially with all of the Seattle injuries on a short week.

    Arizona Cardinals +6 (-110), 2 units
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    Good luck tonight....
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    11/12/2017 (30-46-5, -23.8)

    Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 (-110), 1 unit

    Cleveland Browns +11 (-110), 1 unit

    Atlanta Falcons -3 (-120), 3 units

    Denver Broncos +7.5 (-120), 2 units
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    11/16/2017 (32-48-5, -23.3)

    Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (-105), 1 unit
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  24. #74  
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    11/19/2017 (33-48-5, -22.3)

    Chicago Bears +3 (EVEN), 1 unit

    Green Bay Packers +2 (-110), 1 unit

    Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110), 2 units

    Oakland Raiders +7 (EVEN), 1 unit

    Dallas Cowboys +6 (-110), 2 units
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  25. #75  
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    Lions +3 (-130), 1u
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