CFB betting look for Week 3: Buy or sell ASU Sun Devils?
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
8/11/17
This early betting outlook provides an essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us for Week 3, as we make buy and sell orders in the SEC and Pac 12, plus ferret out some "over" and "under" teams. We'll also look at how a one-sided rivalry series sets up this year, and put weird schedules and offseason preparedness under the microscope in the Handicapper's Toolbox
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy:
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State has looked as good as anybody so far against softer competition. Week 1 saw Todd Grantham debut with a defense that held Charleston Southern to two first downs and 33 yards. Then in Week 2 at Louisiana Tech, Grantham unleashed difference-maker Jeffery Simmons, who scored twice from his defensive line spot. Aeris Williams and freshman Kylin Hill are a solid backfield duo to complement star bulldozer Nick Fitzgerald at quarterback. This is a big, physical, balanced, well-coached team that despite a tough road schedule might be capable of challenging the 6-2 SEC record posted by its great 2014 squad.
Sell:
Arizona State Sun Devils
Last week, the Arizona schools were getting scant respect from the number, and we posed the question of whether that pair had really sunk that far. In Arizona State's case, at least, probably so. The San Diego State team that the Sun Devils just faced is not as strong as its two 11-win predecessors. The offensive line is rebuilding, and the team is counting on 12 freshmen to contribute right now. But the Aztecs still physically dominated an Arizona State squad with an identity crisis. The Sun Devils want to be a play-action offense, but they can't run the ball effectively enough despite a very good backfield. Offensive line play has been the issue in this program for several seasons now, and the continued poor blocking is exacerbated by the fact that the offense is dealing with a third coordinator in three years.
Todd Graham has hired some talented coaches at all of his stops over the years, and he's lost a lot of them to higher-resource programs. The replacements aren't typically as good, and that's the issue with the defense this season. Phil Bennett is an accomplished defensive coach and had a great run with Baylor at his last stop, but he is no longer in his prime, and this team is not responding well to the staff on that side of the ball.
One of the highest values in Graham's program is discipline -- which wasn't exactly the watchword for the Baylor defense. And the worst news for Arizona State is that for all the troubles on offense and defense, the special teams might be the worst of the three. This week's road matchup against a Texas Tech team that's likewise showing signs of program decline will be a good test of Arizona State's bounce-back mettle
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs (-18)
We're bullish on both of these teams' chances to have a voice in their conference races and interested to see what kind of showing the Mustangs can make here with third-year coach Chad Morris' best team yet. Gary Patterson is already spinning tales about his 2005 loss to SMU, the week after a road win at Oklahoma. He's very conscious of the pitfalls of playing a team that considers his Frogs a rival in a sandwich spot between a big road victory and another high-stakes trip to Stillwater.
But can Patterson fully refocus a group of players who have known only blowouts against SMU and are receiving plenty of pats on the back from those outside the building this week?
A game effort, at least, from an SMU team on the rise is certain, as not only is the Iron Skillet affair a significant rivalry game from the Ponies' perspective, it's the first non-conference game of the Morris era in which the Ponies enter as both an underdog and with a real belief that they can actually win.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Coaches plan ahead in the offseason, and you should too
When a team faces an unusual quirk in scheduling, pay attention in the offseason to how the coaches are thinking about it and what they're doing to prepare for it. For example, whenever one of the service academies appears on a school's schedule for the first time, we certainly want to know the defensive brain trust's background facing option football and how the staff plans to prepare for it in the spring, in camp and during the season. The same principle applies to many other scenarios.
A huge part of Southern Cal's offseason narrative was the schedule's lack of an open date. The coaches were hyper-aware of the challenges that it presented, and consequently, the team didn't do as much hitting in camp. While the Trojans looked plenty physical against Stanford Saturday, we think the lack of contact work in camp cost them in the opener against a Western Michigan team that was more rugged than expected. It remains to be seen whether Clay Helton's offseason approach to the 2017 schedule's specific challenges pays off with a fresher team down the stretch.
One coach whose approach is being put to the test right now is Mike Gundy. Oklahoma State's schedule features consecutive road trips to different regions, the first a 44-7 win at South Alabama and now a rematch with a big, physical Pittsburgh team that ran for nearly 300 yards in a 45-38 loss in Stillwater last September. The Cowboys can't afford to show up out of gas for this one, nor for next week's clash with fellow Big 12 contender TCU, and Gundy's been working all offseason to ensure that they won't.
He's prepped his team mentally by embracing the oddity and making it a frequent point of offseason emphasis. And it turns out that popping large athletes on and off long plane trips is not ideal for their performance and endurance. Gundy has embraced the science behind that idea and spent the offseason searching for ways to mitigate the effects.
We're not enamored with double-digit road favorites generally, and Pitt's running game certainly fits an effective underdog profile. The Panthers covered last week against Penn State by holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes and rolling up 24 first downs to Penn State's 12. Pitt couldn't handle Penn State's explosive offense, but they slipped under the number by keeping it off the field.
The game plan will probably be the same this week against the high-octane Cowboys, and we're not telling you not to back Pitt if you like. The point is that we're able to assess Oklahoma State's unfortunate scheduling spot as much less of a negative factor because we know how diligently the program has prepared for it.
Chalk Bits
Observations, issues, clues and questions from around this week's slate.
It's always critical to determine why the games play out the way they do after the fact, and whether the outcome reveals more strength in the victor or weakness in the vanquished. Georgia, Clemson and TCU all logged big wins last week, and at this point we're betting that those teams are really that good, and that the losing trio of Notre Dame, Auburn and Arkansas spend plenty of time looking like ranked teams themselves this season.
We always want to make early identification of teams likely to post a lopsided over/under ledger this season; that is, teams that play good defense but can't score, and those that can't stop anybody but score freely. Right now, likely targets are BYU and Ole Miss, neither of which has the personnel to make a sudden fix before the market fully adjusts.
The Cougars played excellent defense for years under Bronco Mendenhall and have retained their defensive edge thus far under second-year boss Kalani Sitake. But this year's edition lacks offensive play-makers, and thus far has managed just 32 first downs in three games and has yet to throw for 200 yards. Ole Miss can't run the ball, but the Rebels have Shea Patterson at quarterback, a veteran offensive line and some talent at receiver. That combination is good for lots of aerial production but puts an already out-manned defense on the field a lot. When the total is posted on this week's game at Cal, it might not quite be in the seventies, but it should.
We touched on Conquering Heroes' syndrome again last week, pointing out Alabama's miserable track record in Week 2 games immediately following a marquee win in one of the season's big opening week neutral-site clashes. Bama never threatened to cover a big number against Fresno State, and Michigan fell victim to the same issue, turning in a lackluster performance as a heavy favorite the week after its demolition of Florida. Oklahoma might be a good candidate to follow suit this week, coming off an emotional win and laying five scores to a Tulane team that keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
8/11/17
This early betting outlook provides an essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us for Week 3, as we make buy and sell orders in the SEC and Pac 12, plus ferret out some "over" and "under" teams. We'll also look at how a one-sided rivalry series sets up this year, and put weird schedules and offseason preparedness under the microscope in the Handicapper's Toolbox
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy:
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State has looked as good as anybody so far against softer competition. Week 1 saw Todd Grantham debut with a defense that held Charleston Southern to two first downs and 33 yards. Then in Week 2 at Louisiana Tech, Grantham unleashed difference-maker Jeffery Simmons, who scored twice from his defensive line spot. Aeris Williams and freshman Kylin Hill are a solid backfield duo to complement star bulldozer Nick Fitzgerald at quarterback. This is a big, physical, balanced, well-coached team that despite a tough road schedule might be capable of challenging the 6-2 SEC record posted by its great 2014 squad.
Sell:
Arizona State Sun Devils
Last week, the Arizona schools were getting scant respect from the number, and we posed the question of whether that pair had really sunk that far. In Arizona State's case, at least, probably so. The San Diego State team that the Sun Devils just faced is not as strong as its two 11-win predecessors. The offensive line is rebuilding, and the team is counting on 12 freshmen to contribute right now. But the Aztecs still physically dominated an Arizona State squad with an identity crisis. The Sun Devils want to be a play-action offense, but they can't run the ball effectively enough despite a very good backfield. Offensive line play has been the issue in this program for several seasons now, and the continued poor blocking is exacerbated by the fact that the offense is dealing with a third coordinator in three years.
Todd Graham has hired some talented coaches at all of his stops over the years, and he's lost a lot of them to higher-resource programs. The replacements aren't typically as good, and that's the issue with the defense this season. Phil Bennett is an accomplished defensive coach and had a great run with Baylor at his last stop, but he is no longer in his prime, and this team is not responding well to the staff on that side of the ball.
One of the highest values in Graham's program is discipline -- which wasn't exactly the watchword for the Baylor defense. And the worst news for Arizona State is that for all the troubles on offense and defense, the special teams might be the worst of the three. This week's road matchup against a Texas Tech team that's likewise showing signs of program decline will be a good test of Arizona State's bounce-back mettle
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs (-18)
We're bullish on both of these teams' chances to have a voice in their conference races and interested to see what kind of showing the Mustangs can make here with third-year coach Chad Morris' best team yet. Gary Patterson is already spinning tales about his 2005 loss to SMU, the week after a road win at Oklahoma. He's very conscious of the pitfalls of playing a team that considers his Frogs a rival in a sandwich spot between a big road victory and another high-stakes trip to Stillwater.
But can Patterson fully refocus a group of players who have known only blowouts against SMU and are receiving plenty of pats on the back from those outside the building this week?
A game effort, at least, from an SMU team on the rise is certain, as not only is the Iron Skillet affair a significant rivalry game from the Ponies' perspective, it's the first non-conference game of the Morris era in which the Ponies enter as both an underdog and with a real belief that they can actually win.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Coaches plan ahead in the offseason, and you should too
When a team faces an unusual quirk in scheduling, pay attention in the offseason to how the coaches are thinking about it and what they're doing to prepare for it. For example, whenever one of the service academies appears on a school's schedule for the first time, we certainly want to know the defensive brain trust's background facing option football and how the staff plans to prepare for it in the spring, in camp and during the season. The same principle applies to many other scenarios.
A huge part of Southern Cal's offseason narrative was the schedule's lack of an open date. The coaches were hyper-aware of the challenges that it presented, and consequently, the team didn't do as much hitting in camp. While the Trojans looked plenty physical against Stanford Saturday, we think the lack of contact work in camp cost them in the opener against a Western Michigan team that was more rugged than expected. It remains to be seen whether Clay Helton's offseason approach to the 2017 schedule's specific challenges pays off with a fresher team down the stretch.
One coach whose approach is being put to the test right now is Mike Gundy. Oklahoma State's schedule features consecutive road trips to different regions, the first a 44-7 win at South Alabama and now a rematch with a big, physical Pittsburgh team that ran for nearly 300 yards in a 45-38 loss in Stillwater last September. The Cowboys can't afford to show up out of gas for this one, nor for next week's clash with fellow Big 12 contender TCU, and Gundy's been working all offseason to ensure that they won't.
He's prepped his team mentally by embracing the oddity and making it a frequent point of offseason emphasis. And it turns out that popping large athletes on and off long plane trips is not ideal for their performance and endurance. Gundy has embraced the science behind that idea and spent the offseason searching for ways to mitigate the effects.
We're not enamored with double-digit road favorites generally, and Pitt's running game certainly fits an effective underdog profile. The Panthers covered last week against Penn State by holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes and rolling up 24 first downs to Penn State's 12. Pitt couldn't handle Penn State's explosive offense, but they slipped under the number by keeping it off the field.
The game plan will probably be the same this week against the high-octane Cowboys, and we're not telling you not to back Pitt if you like. The point is that we're able to assess Oklahoma State's unfortunate scheduling spot as much less of a negative factor because we know how diligently the program has prepared for it.
Chalk Bits
Observations, issues, clues and questions from around this week's slate.
It's always critical to determine why the games play out the way they do after the fact, and whether the outcome reveals more strength in the victor or weakness in the vanquished. Georgia, Clemson and TCU all logged big wins last week, and at this point we're betting that those teams are really that good, and that the losing trio of Notre Dame, Auburn and Arkansas spend plenty of time looking like ranked teams themselves this season.
We always want to make early identification of teams likely to post a lopsided over/under ledger this season; that is, teams that play good defense but can't score, and those that can't stop anybody but score freely. Right now, likely targets are BYU and Ole Miss, neither of which has the personnel to make a sudden fix before the market fully adjusts.
The Cougars played excellent defense for years under Bronco Mendenhall and have retained their defensive edge thus far under second-year boss Kalani Sitake. But this year's edition lacks offensive play-makers, and thus far has managed just 32 first downs in three games and has yet to throw for 200 yards. Ole Miss can't run the ball, but the Rebels have Shea Patterson at quarterback, a veteran offensive line and some talent at receiver. That combination is good for lots of aerial production but puts an already out-manned defense on the field a lot. When the total is posted on this week's game at Cal, it might not quite be in the seventies, but it should.
We touched on Conquering Heroes' syndrome again last week, pointing out Alabama's miserable track record in Week 2 games immediately following a marquee win in one of the season's big opening week neutral-site clashes. Bama never threatened to cover a big number against Fresno State, and Michigan fell victim to the same issue, turning in a lackluster performance as a heavy favorite the week after its demolition of Florida. Oklahoma might be a good candidate to follow suit this week, coming off an emotional win and laying five scores to a Tulane team that keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving.
