How to bet Los Angeles-Denver
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: Denver -3
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent on Los Angeles
Phil Steele
The Chargers were the kings of the blown fourth-quarter lead last year but figure to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this year. They are 11-3 as a division away dog, and with Wade Phillips leaving Denver, I do not think their defense will be as strong. Philip Rivers over Trevor Siemian at quarterback is a pretty large edge. I rate these teams as equal talentwise, and with the line at 3, I will pass. But if it goes over 3, I will take the dog.
ATS Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
This Broncos franchise seems to be looking for direction with new head coach Vance Joseph, while clinging to Siemian. Daunting in this Monday night matchup is a run defense that finished 28th in the NFL a season ago and features a banged-up front seven. The Chargers look to take a healthy step forward in 2017 as they outplayed their 5-11 record a season ago. They allowed 26.4 points per game last season and ranked 29th in the NFL, but that number should plummet in 2017, led by Joey Bosa.
ATS Pick: Chargers
Warren Sharp
The most overlooked aspect of this game is the Chargers' defense. Last year against the Broncos offense, the Chargers held Siemian to a 37 percent successful pass rate, six yards per attempt and a 76 rating. And the Chargers' defense will be even better this year. Without the ability to effectively sustain a strong pass offense, the Broncos will have to resort more to the run, but I believe they'll struggle there, as the Chargers' run defense ranked fifth-best in success rate allowed and Denver was third-worst in rushing efficiency on offense. This could keep the Chargers in the game, allowing them to rely on their run game against the Broncos' defensive weakness, rather than trailing and needing to pass against the Broncos' formidable pass defense.
Pick: Chargers +3
Parolin's prop bet
67.5 rushing yards by Melvin Gordon (O/U -110)
Start here with the running back depth chart in San Diego. The Chargers kept three running backs -- undrafted rookie Austin Ekeler, Branden Oliver and Gordon. By most accounts, Gordon is in line for a significant percentage of the team's rushing work, just like last year. Gordon ranked seventh in the NFL in both percentage of team rushes (64 percent) and rush yards (66 percent), and he scored 10 rushing touchdowns -- or 10 more than anyone else on the Chargers. He's going to get every opportunity in this game, especially considering how unlikely Siemian is to force Rivers to throw on every play.
enver's defense is a strong unit against the pass (NFL best 185.8 pass yards per game allowed). But the Broncos allowed more than 130 rush yards per game last year (28th in the league), and the 4.33 yards per rush they surrendered was 18th. The Broncos' defense is exactly as good as advertised with the ball in the air, but on the ground, there's plenty of opportunity here. Plus, no one knows that better than Gordon, who rushed for 205 yards in two games against Denver last year (4.1 yards per rush). That was the most by any player against the Broncos.
The 67.5 total is simply too low for a bell-cow back against a mediocre rush defense without the threat of falling into a major deficit early.
The play: Over
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: Denver -3
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent on Los Angeles
Phil Steele
The Chargers were the kings of the blown fourth-quarter lead last year but figure to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this year. They are 11-3 as a division away dog, and with Wade Phillips leaving Denver, I do not think their defense will be as strong. Philip Rivers over Trevor Siemian at quarterback is a pretty large edge. I rate these teams as equal talentwise, and with the line at 3, I will pass. But if it goes over 3, I will take the dog.
ATS Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
This Broncos franchise seems to be looking for direction with new head coach Vance Joseph, while clinging to Siemian. Daunting in this Monday night matchup is a run defense that finished 28th in the NFL a season ago and features a banged-up front seven. The Chargers look to take a healthy step forward in 2017 as they outplayed their 5-11 record a season ago. They allowed 26.4 points per game last season and ranked 29th in the NFL, but that number should plummet in 2017, led by Joey Bosa.
ATS Pick: Chargers
Warren Sharp
The most overlooked aspect of this game is the Chargers' defense. Last year against the Broncos offense, the Chargers held Siemian to a 37 percent successful pass rate, six yards per attempt and a 76 rating. And the Chargers' defense will be even better this year. Without the ability to effectively sustain a strong pass offense, the Broncos will have to resort more to the run, but I believe they'll struggle there, as the Chargers' run defense ranked fifth-best in success rate allowed and Denver was third-worst in rushing efficiency on offense. This could keep the Chargers in the game, allowing them to rely on their run game against the Broncos' defensive weakness, rather than trailing and needing to pass against the Broncos' formidable pass defense.
Pick: Chargers +3
Parolin's prop bet
67.5 rushing yards by Melvin Gordon (O/U -110)
Start here with the running back depth chart in San Diego. The Chargers kept three running backs -- undrafted rookie Austin Ekeler, Branden Oliver and Gordon. By most accounts, Gordon is in line for a significant percentage of the team's rushing work, just like last year. Gordon ranked seventh in the NFL in both percentage of team rushes (64 percent) and rush yards (66 percent), and he scored 10 rushing touchdowns -- or 10 more than anyone else on the Chargers. He's going to get every opportunity in this game, especially considering how unlikely Siemian is to force Rivers to throw on every play.
enver's defense is a strong unit against the pass (NFL best 185.8 pass yards per game allowed). But the Broncos allowed more than 130 rush yards per game last year (28th in the league), and the 4.33 yards per rush they surrendered was 18th. The Broncos' defense is exactly as good as advertised with the ball in the air, but on the ground, there's plenty of opportunity here. Plus, no one knows that better than Gordon, who rushed for 205 yards in two games against Denver last year (4.1 yards per rush). That was the most by any player against the Broncos.
The 67.5 total is simply too low for a bell-cow back against a mediocre rush defense without the threat of falling into a major deficit early.
The play: Over
