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Thread: Picks without writeups? Why bother

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  1. #51  
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamhuge View Post
    I'm not sure I understand the logic. If you make your bet, then post the logical reason why you liked the team and then the public adores your reason and moves the line - who cares, you already made your bet. Help me understand.
    The public doesn't move the line.
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  2. #52  
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    I am 8-2 this year so far on college, by the way.
    Week 1
    Penn St (31.5)
    Notre Dame (17.0)
    Nevada 23.0
    Marshall (1.0)
    Michigan (3.5)


    PENN STATE – 31 ˝ over Akron (Franklin is a total dick…will run up score week 1)
    NOTRE DAME -17 over Temple (Brian Kelly needs to get out of the gate fast, Temple weaker this year)
    Nevada +23 vs Northwestern (Northwestern NEVER covers this big a spread and Nevada scores points).
    MARSHALL -1 over Miami (OH) (No knowledge here…but like the home team in the opener and I watched “We are Marshall” on the Sundance channel yesterday)

    Michigan – 3 ˝ over Florida…drinking the Harbaugh Koolaid and I am sure he is still steaming over the bowl loss to FSU.



    Week 2
    Buffalo +16 ˝ ARMY - I don’t quite buy Army as a powerhouse just yet. Buffalo played tough against Minnesota, who also runs the ball well. Like the points here.
    RUTGERS -5 emu - This is a body bag home game for Rutgers, who will play well after falling apart late against Washington. Even though Rutgers is a Big 10 doormat, Rutgers will dominate up front against a very weak EMU team.
    K STATE -36 charlotte – This is a Bill Snyder special….and Kansas State always scores over 50 points in these games.
    Utsa +17 Baylor – Baylor lost to Liberty…..The Bears are basically a shit show on defense. UTSA is ready to play after having their first game against the Nutt cancelled. I like the points here.
    IDAHO -6 ˝ unlv – Idaho is home…had a nice 22 point in over CS – Sacramento, a team who is much better than Howard. UNLV lost to Howard last week.

    buffalo 16.5
    RUTGERS -5
    K STATE -36
    utsa 17
    IDAHO -6.5
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  3. #53  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    His pick lost. Don't follow him.
    A lot of good ones had the Giants & you completely missed my point.
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  4. #54  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    His pick lost. Don't follow him.
    Since we all lose from time to time(or weekly), no one would follow anyone under this strategy. And I've been reading forums going back two decades, and I have yet to see the guy hitting 58% consistently. Or 57% or 56% or...
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  5. #55  
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    I've read many write-ups from both casual posters and paid services... And I've came up with a conclusion.
    It's all about results. Once you decided on a play, there are many factors that you can come up with to support your side of view, not that hard to find. Thus Vegas always give you a number that split almost 50/50 in opinion.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    His pick lost. Don't follow him.
    Just my 2 cents:
    It is not all about results, just like in poker: You winning a heads-up after shoving all-in with a bad hand vs AA, doesn't mean you made the right decision. Applying that to football: If your team takes the lead in the final minute of a game and then goes on to cover the point spread by scoring another TD on a strip sack and fumble return TD with the clock running out usually doesn't mean that your bet was a really good bet even though it turned out to win.
    Yes, that time you got lucky but in the long run you might be better off revisiting your approach/numbers because probably the game played out differently to what you expected.

    Having said that: With or without a write-up you will hardly be able to see such "flaws" because even a write-up will only give you a very abbreviated number of things someone took into account when making his pick plus you never know how much he valued certain factors he mentioned. On the other hand if someone puts out a winning record over several seasons and/or a certain sample size, you don't need any write-ups to see if he knows his stuff or doesn't
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Since we all lose from time to time(or weekly), no one would follow anyone under this strategy. And I've been reading forums going back two decades, and I have yet to see the guy hitting 58% consistently. Or 57% or 56% or...
    Me neither. Let me know if you do.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Soriano12 View Post
    Just my 2 cents:
    It is not all about results, just like in poker: You winning a heads-up after shoving all-in with a bad hand vs AA, doesn't mean you made the right decision. Applying that to football: If your team takes the lead in the final minute of a game and then goes on to cover the point spread by scoring another TD on a strip sack and fumble return TD with the clock running out usually doesn't mean that your bet was a really good bet even though it turned out to win.
    Yes, that time you got lucky but in the long run you might be better off revisiting your approach/numbers because probably the game played out differently to what you expected.

    Having said that: With or without a write-up you will hardly be able to see such "flaws" because even a write-up will only give you a very abbreviated number of things someone took into account when making his pick plus you never know how much he valued certain factors he mentioned. On the other hand if someone puts out a winning record over several seasons and/or a certain sample size, you don't need any write-ups to see if he knows his stuff or doesn't
    Totally disagree with this.

    At the end of a long football Saturday, all that matters is your ledger says + not -. I don't care how it gets there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    A lot of good ones had the Giants & you completely missed my point.
    You're right, I don't understand your point on this topic at all. You guys sound ungrateful.
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  10. #60  
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    Elaboration on why write-ups are sometime over-rated, only to make you feel better about your pick... but don't get me wrong, I do enjoy reading them (O'FRED, one of the best on here) but only to FURTHER/REINFORCE and side that I already liked.

    Take Clemson v. Louisville for example.. once you like a side you can write all kinds of things about it.

    If Clemson - Their D is great, maybe better than last year, and able to shut down LJ in the trenches. Their new QB is gaining experience and been playing good enough to slice the bad Louisville secondary. Their DC Venables has tapes from last year to come up with game plan for LJ...etc.
    If Louisville - LJ is world class which will give Clemson D trouble. First home game crowd will be wild. Clemson's QB is so green with first road game in a Revenge game which will be tough...etc

    Bottom line, it's all about results winning vs. losing at the end of the day. I'm personally all about making money.
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  11. #61  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    I understand and yes I appreciate some of the posters that have solid records without write ups. But even these guys should provide a write up here and there, too, IMO.

    Oklahoma was decimated on defense last year, a lot of top quality players returned to play against OSU... no mention of that by anybody.

    Last year they did very very well despite playing a ton of second stringers on D.

    So this year they are healthier and have power on both sides of the ball, lost two top RB's but have one of the best QB's in the land and perhaps the best OL in the NCAA.

    So with a solid D they had a good outlook getting 7 points against a overrated vanilla OSU offense.

    Did anybody write any of that?
    Excellent point. if I had read what you just wrote, I would have saved myself a whole bunch of cash by toning down my OSU bet, or laying off all together.
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Excellent point. if I had read what you just wrote, I would have saved myself a whole bunch of cash by toning down my OSU bet, or laying off all together.
    Nooooooooooooooo, if you'd listened to Booger McFarland at the half, you'd have jumped on OU to save the loss. I fortunately woke from a nap to hear him and play the second half.

    ~T~
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  13. #63  
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    I concur, been there myself. Most of the write-ups take a lot of time as well...time that could be used capping.
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  14. #64  
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    Quote Originally Posted by tmader7 View Post
    Nooooooooooooooo, if you'd listened to Booger McFarland at the half, you'd have jumped on OU to save the loss. I fortunately woke from a nap to hear him and play the second half.

    ~T~
    Missed Booger, and I doubt he is right 58% of the time. But I'm glad you hit the 2H. Screw the write-ups, but at least let us know if you have any insight watching a game, reading a blog, or maybe read a column of a local non-cheerleader type sportswriter.

    Pee pee makes a good point above about reinforcing a play or dropping a play you might already be thinking about. Tailing plays is overrated, but influencing a play is useful.
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  15. #65  
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    Nobody in the History of MANKIND has anyone hit 58% over an extended period of time. I'm not sure why anyone is throwing that number around, or even 57% for that matter. This thread is laughable..

    Hopefully headed home by end of weekend..
    2017 CBB Totals Final 32-22 59.2%
    2017 MLB Program Totals Final 140-125-7 +9.36 Units
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  16. #66  
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Excellent point. if I had read what you just wrote, I would have saved myself a whole bunch of cash by toning down my OSU bet, or laying off all together.
    I really appreciate your write ups... and take your picks into strong consideration, more than those who merely lob out a team.

    Sure, some who "lob a team" do OK, but when they do I do not know if they are taking everything into consideration, whereas I see than you do... so per my example when they say Giants + 4 1/2 at Dallas, I do not know if they are including the information that Beckman is out or not so I am not prone to make a large wager.
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