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Thread: Good info for newbies regarding 2 team nfl teasers.

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  1. #26  
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    K, gl!
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  2. #27  
    avoid BetEast at all costs! rolltide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShortBusDriver7 View Post
    I've seen some private analytical work by some really smart folks on teasing across 0 and how profitable it actually is....taking -3 to +4, etc.
    well there you would be talking 7pt teasers at an average of -140 odds so your win rate would have to be 80% on those numbers...which it is not. A -3 fav covers the 6-pt teaser line only 69.4% of the time...-2.5 = 64.4%...those are horrible numbers. The key is to cross 3 and 7 as historically 24% of all NFL games land on 3 or 7 exactly, 4-6 approx 14% of time.

    1-2-5-8-9 are the fewest hit rates of the single digit numbers are are inconsequential when teasing a game. and, because a game won't land on 0 (happened 9x in 30 years) you are giving away 3 of your 6 points on the least likely results in NFL (0, 1, and 2) making this the worst possible teaser method you can create, especially in a 6-pt teaser where ties reduce on the +3
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  3. #28  
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  4. #29  
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    Good info, thanks!
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  5. #30  
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  6. #31  
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    Quote Originally Posted by rolltide View Post
    yes it is. but when he was killing vegas with this the 6-pt teaser was +100 ... they moved it to -110 or even -120 at some places. 5dimes still has best teaser market around
    Rolltide, or anyone else. Do you know of any books that have -110 odds for a 6PT teaser? I usually use 5Dimes for dogs, and Heritage for Favs. However, it's usually -120 odds
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