sept 13

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No worries .. been winning these for ever
"""""
Gohara """"" allowed six runs in four IP (83 PT) in his first MLB start, a 12-8 loss to Texas. Braves’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1


Scherzer is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. He is 1-1, 3.20 in three starts vs Atlanta this season. Nationals are 10-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-2

Braves lost three of last five road games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games overall. Washington won six of last eight games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games Square >>>> hardly !!!
 
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17-8-2 is not worth using as your metric when you are laying -250 to -300 every start for Max. Taking into account the linesmakers are inflating his First 5 for how atrocious the Nats bullpen has been this season. Think on the math on that. Let's say you bet -250 every First 5 for him. Those 8 losses = -20 units. Yay you won 17 and pushed two....oh wait, a net loss of 3 units. No thanks. That is a square angle.

What do the Nats have to play for anymore? Chasing the Dodgers for best home record? LA is digging their own grave on that. Atlanta beat the Nats the night before 8-0 when Gio was -220. Nats didn't show up.

The smart angle is to lay a nickel on both big dogs and hope one wins. If you had done that, you'd be a profit of +925 (500 x 2.85 - 500 on the Mets loser). But hey, -1k works too.

_

Btw, Dusty Baker's overuse of this staff is going to be their downfall.

Max Scherzer had thrown 95 pitches through six innings in a 2-2 tie at Nationals Park but Baker decided to send his ace back out for the seventh inning. Sure, Scherzer should be able to mow down the 8-9-1 hitters for a team 13 games below .500, right?


Wrong. Scherzer failed to record an out. He issued four walks and a single in the seventh, an eventual six-run inning that cost the Nationals the game. Scherzer was tagged for seven runs on seven hits with six walks, the most he's issued in a game since 2013.


Why did Baker risk sending out Scherzer for the seventh especially considering the reigning Cy Young Award winner had a high pitch count? Scherzer asked for the extra work and Baker has shown plenty of confidence in his starters to go deep into games.


“I knew it was important for me, going into that start tonight, to be able to get to that level (above 110 pitches). That’s where I showed some rust tonight,” Scherzer told reporters after the game. “This is why I needed to pitch that deep into the game, so I can shake off some of that rust and later in the year here I’m able to be strong all the way through 110 pitches.”


According to teamrankings.com, the Nationals have three of the top-11 pitchers in "pitches per start." Gio Gonzalez is third at 105.4 pitches, Tanner Roark is sixth with 102.5 and Scherzer is 11th with 101.6. Stephen Strasburg is 21st in MLB at 98.7, giving the Nationals four of the top 21 in baseball.


These pitch-count numbers could be important to watch as the Nationals attempt to end their postseason struggles next month.
 

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