North Carolina - 10 / ODU

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UNC -10 2U
Old Dominion

Rarely do I play against a home dog but I cannot pass up a talent mismatch like this with a relatively low line.

OLD DOM opened the season against 2 very weak opponents in U-Mass and FCS Albany....hey started 2-0 to their credit BUT their offense really struggled to move the ball against these 2 weak defensive teams.

Old Dominion simply is just not a threat on offense this year after losing QB David Washington....Their offense was built around him last year....Not only did he throw the ball well 31 TD / 5 INT but the threat of him throwing opened up the run allowing for big seasons for the Monarchs RB'S AVG over 5YPC......

The Old Dominion defense did play very well.....They are a strong unit for a non-power 5 CONF club...But the last time they faced an offense like this was last SEP VS NC State when they gave up 49.

The Tar Heels have gone up against 2 great offenses in CAL and LOU have had a rough going of it as would almost any other defense in the country.......They are ranked towards the bottom of the pack in YDS allowed but should get healthy and back on track against an offense like the one they will face Saturday.

They actually held CAL to under their last season YDS gained and points scored game AVG

They ran into a different breed vs LOU where Heisman winner Lamar Jackson put up 500 total YDS by himself.

I believe the linemakers have over compensated this line because of these 2 games.......As stated above the OLD DOM offense
is absolutely no threat to UNC and cant compare to the offenses of LOU and CAL.

On offense the N.C. passing game keeps humming along....Marquise Williams, Mitch Trubisky now FR Chazz Surratt is slinging the ball around back there like its nothing - 70% COMP rate 3 TDS / 0 INTS......Even EX LSU QB Brandon Harris looked good VS Louisville backing up last week.........Regardless of who starts Surratt or Harris the OLD DOM defense will struggle to contain this offense who AVG 32 points per game in the ACC.

There is a huge gap of talent and raw athletic-ability between these 2 clubs.




I like NC by 17+
 

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Nice write-up. I already posted ODU +7.5 and like +10 even more. But you are making me second guess myself lol. I do agree with the talent disparity. Do you give any credence to UNC having a let down after 2 tough Power 5 teams and Duke on deck?

Cheers!
 

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Nice write-up. I already posted ODU +7.5 and like +10 even more. But you are making me second guess myself lol. I do agree with the talent disparity. Do you give any credence to UNC having a let down after 2 tough Power 5 teams and Duke on deck?

Cheers!


If UNC does not win this game they will be sitting home in DEC while the majority of their ACC rivals are playing in Bowl games.
HC Fedora will make sure this team has that message......UNC was unfortunate to draw a couple of the best offenses in CFB to open up the season against and while they could not get it done against either squad - a blow out win here will have everyone feeling better and that there is still a season to save with only having 1 CONF. loss

ODU will need to create turnovers and / or come up with some big special team plays to cover IMO

Like I said, you will rarely see me wager against a home dog......I usually avoid it all together but this is a great match-up for UNC..
I would be more concerned if UNC was going up against the likes of a New MEX ST team or N.Texas who move the ball better.

If you take a hard look at the caliber of the two teams OLD DOM played Albany and U-MASS and dig into the box scores its difficult to see how OLD DOM will be able to put enough points on the board to cover this spread vs UNC


BUT this is CFB and anything can happen.......

Good luck Philly
 

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