Best bets for Houston-Cincinnati
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/14/17
SPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between Houston and Cincinnati. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Cincy -3; now Cincy -6
Total: Opened 38.5; now 37.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent on Cincy
Phil Steele:
Houston struggled on the offensive line, allowing 10 sacks in part because of left tackle Duane Brown's continued holdout. Cincinnati struggled on the offensive line after letting two starters go in free agency and got shutout at home to Baltimore. Both teams were minus-four in turnovers last week. I rate these two teams even and the Texans are getting six points here. I like the under with two questionable offenses.
ATS pick: under 37.5
Erin Rynning:
Obviously both teams will look to redeem themselves off embarrassing home losses, as they combined for 7 points in Week 1. Unfortunately the state of both teams' offensive lines are as bad as they looked on Sunday. Of course the Texans and Bengals feature rock-solid defensive fronts to make moving the football difficult in this matchup. However, the market has adjusted with this total set around 38, taking away a lean to the under.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp:
Last week these two teams combined to score 7 total points , and the two nearly ruined Christmas Eve last year with a 3-0 first half and a 12-10 final score. The Texans are still without Brown, a key reason I was on the Jaguars last week, and they have already been devastated by widespread injuries to their TE position, which means even more inept blocking. The Texans allowed a high success rate to the the Jaguars passing attack, but most of that was funneled to their in-game WR2 (after Allen Robinson was injured) and RB Leonard Fournette.
Pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
230.5 passing yards by Andy Dalton (O/U -110)
Since the start of 2015, the Texans have allowed at least 231 yards to 15 of 33 starting quarterbacks, an unhelpfully-even split. Andy Dalton was responsible for two of them, throwing for 268 yards in a Week 16 game last year and only 197 yards in Week 10 of 2015. So how to react to Week 1? After all, Blake Bortles' grip on a starting role is tenuous at best, and his 11-completion, 125-yard performance against the Texans in Week 1 isn't the best barometer.
But Dalton's Week 1 might be the key. The Bengals lost tackle Andrew Whitworth and guard Kevin Zeitler in the offseason, and the Baltimore Ravens defense made life very difficult on Dalton. He was sacked five times and threw four interceptions in a shutout loss, and with all due respect to the Baltimore pass rush, none of them present the problems Houston will. Jadeveon Clowney's emergence last year as a legitimate force without J.J. Watt causes optimism now that Watt is back. The secondary is no weakness, either -- Houston has allowed the third fewest pass yards to wide receivers since the start of last year. If no one is open, Houston's rush could feast.
The play: Under
70.5 rushing yards by Lamar Miller (O/U -110)
Miller is going to get chances to gain yards. He was the snap leader among Texans running backs in Week 1, posting a 56-44 advantage over Tyler Ervin (D'Onta Foreman had two). But the total isn't yards from scrimmage, it's rushing yards. Miller has 118 receptions since 2014, 12th most by a running back. The Bengals are susceptible to passes out of the backfield as well -- Cincinnati's defense has allowed 96 completions to running backs since the start of last year, seventh most in the league, and only the Falcons defense (156) faced more running back targets than the Bengals (136) in that time frame.
So how many of Miller's scrimmage yards will be through the air? Despite showing his ability to catch passes in Miami, only 16 percent of his scrimmage yards have been off receptions during his time in Houston. If Deshaun Watson gets the start, Houston's offense may check down a little more, but the Texans have had plenty of chances to use Miller in a more hybrid role and simply haven't yet. Couple that with Cincinnati's 4.34 yards per rush allowed since the start of last year, and Miller would only need 17 rushes to hit the over. That's very much in play for a team with an elite defense on the road that needs to hide its quarterback.
The play: Over
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/14/17
SPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between Houston and Cincinnati. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Cincy -3; now Cincy -6
Total: Opened 38.5; now 37.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent on Cincy
Phil Steele:
Houston struggled on the offensive line, allowing 10 sacks in part because of left tackle Duane Brown's continued holdout. Cincinnati struggled on the offensive line after letting two starters go in free agency and got shutout at home to Baltimore. Both teams were minus-four in turnovers last week. I rate these two teams even and the Texans are getting six points here. I like the under with two questionable offenses.
ATS pick: under 37.5
Erin Rynning:
Obviously both teams will look to redeem themselves off embarrassing home losses, as they combined for 7 points in Week 1. Unfortunately the state of both teams' offensive lines are as bad as they looked on Sunday. Of course the Texans and Bengals feature rock-solid defensive fronts to make moving the football difficult in this matchup. However, the market has adjusted with this total set around 38, taking away a lean to the under.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp:
Last week these two teams combined to score 7 total points , and the two nearly ruined Christmas Eve last year with a 3-0 first half and a 12-10 final score. The Texans are still without Brown, a key reason I was on the Jaguars last week, and they have already been devastated by widespread injuries to their TE position, which means even more inept blocking. The Texans allowed a high success rate to the the Jaguars passing attack, but most of that was funneled to their in-game WR2 (after Allen Robinson was injured) and RB Leonard Fournette.
Pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
230.5 passing yards by Andy Dalton (O/U -110)
Since the start of 2015, the Texans have allowed at least 231 yards to 15 of 33 starting quarterbacks, an unhelpfully-even split. Andy Dalton was responsible for two of them, throwing for 268 yards in a Week 16 game last year and only 197 yards in Week 10 of 2015. So how to react to Week 1? After all, Blake Bortles' grip on a starting role is tenuous at best, and his 11-completion, 125-yard performance against the Texans in Week 1 isn't the best barometer.
But Dalton's Week 1 might be the key. The Bengals lost tackle Andrew Whitworth and guard Kevin Zeitler in the offseason, and the Baltimore Ravens defense made life very difficult on Dalton. He was sacked five times and threw four interceptions in a shutout loss, and with all due respect to the Baltimore pass rush, none of them present the problems Houston will. Jadeveon Clowney's emergence last year as a legitimate force without J.J. Watt causes optimism now that Watt is back. The secondary is no weakness, either -- Houston has allowed the third fewest pass yards to wide receivers since the start of last year. If no one is open, Houston's rush could feast.
The play: Under
70.5 rushing yards by Lamar Miller (O/U -110)
Miller is going to get chances to gain yards. He was the snap leader among Texans running backs in Week 1, posting a 56-44 advantage over Tyler Ervin (D'Onta Foreman had two). But the total isn't yards from scrimmage, it's rushing yards. Miller has 118 receptions since 2014, 12th most by a running back. The Bengals are susceptible to passes out of the backfield as well -- Cincinnati's defense has allowed 96 completions to running backs since the start of last year, seventh most in the league, and only the Falcons defense (156) faced more running back targets than the Bengals (136) in that time frame.
So how many of Miller's scrimmage yards will be through the air? Despite showing his ability to catch passes in Miami, only 16 percent of his scrimmage yards have been off receptions during his time in Houston. If Deshaun Watson gets the start, Houston's offense may check down a little more, but the Texans have had plenty of chances to use Miller in a more hybrid role and simply haven't yet. Couple that with Cincinnati's 4.34 yards per rush allowed since the start of last year, and Miller would only need 17 rushes to hit the over. That's very much in play for a team with an elite defense on the road that needs to hide its quarterback.
The play: Over
