Best CFB Week 3 bets
CFB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/15/17
Our experts are back with their Week 3 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 1-6 in Week 2 (3-12 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 3-1 in Week 2 (6-2-1 season)
Chris Fallica: 1-5 in Week 2 (8-8 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-3) at No. 14 Louisville Cardinals
Steele: Louisville took Clemson down to the wire on the road last season, and the Tigers must now play a second consecutive big game, as they come in off an A+ performance at home against Auburn last week. Louisville has the edge on offense and special teams and will have home-field advantage. Still, Clemson rates a large defensive edge, even though Louisville is allowing just 34 yards per game rushing (1.5 yards per rush). I expect both teams to throw a ton, and I really don't expect anyone to run on the Clemson defense all season. Look for a much higher-scoring game from Clemson than last week and for the Tigers to grab the road win. The biggest matchup edge here is a questionable Louisville offensive line trying to contain the best defensive line in the country.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 34, Louisville 27
Coughlin: This game feels a lot like the last time College GameDay went to "The Ville." Last season, the Florida State Seminoles came to town, and the world was introduced to Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals' offense. You also think of last season's Clemson-Louisville game that ended at 42-36 after being scoreless after the first quarter. In that game, Jackson rushed for 155 yards in the last three quarters, leading an unbelievable comeback that ultimately fell just short to the national champions. This season, Kelly Bryant is the Tigers quarterback, and after watching him for the first two weeks of the season, I just don't see him making enough plays in the passing game on the road in this kind of spot. Don't get me wrong: He has shown absolute fearlessness in the running game, rushing for more than 120 yards and three touchdowns, but the thought here is the Cardinals will force him into throwing situations. He has thrown for only one touchdown this season, so I like the home team to win and cover.
ATS pick: Louisville
Score: Louisville 27, Clemson 23
Fallica: This is a game that I would not play. All games are not meant to be bet on. Sit back and enjoy the brilliance of Lamar Jackson, as well as the dominance of the Clemson defensive line. If you're asking for a lean -- and obviously, if you're reading this column, you are -- I'd take the points (58.5). I think Lamar Jackson's ability to run will help him avoid a few sacks and create something out of nothing. I also wonder if Kelly Bryant is ready for this type of environment. It was very apparent that Auburn could have played eight quarters against Clemson and wouldn't have scored a touchdown. In two games, Bryant has thrown five passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air. He's going to have to open it up a little more here. Jackson and the Cards had huge success in the second half of last year's game, and if they can avoid penalties, sacks and turnovers -- things that have plagued them in recent years -- they can certainly win the game.
ATS pick: Louisville
Score: Louisville 27, Clemson 26
No. 23 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 24 Florida Gators (-4.5)
Steele: Florida started a backup quarterback last season but still led 21-3 at halftime. However, Tennessee roared back and won 38-28, ending their 11-game losing streak to Florida. This time, Florida is at home in "The Swamp." The Gators were without 10 suspended players against Michigan and should get a bunch of them back here. They have a large edge on defense, come in off a loss playing with revenge at home and have the stronger team. I like the Gators to bounce back here, and hopefully, they will be closer to full strength than they were against Michigan.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 31, Tennessee 23
Coughlin: It is make-up or break-up time for the Gators and me. I have backed this team and believed in head coach Jim McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier too many times, and too many times, they have burned me. So this is my last stand. I think the Gators come out roaring with energy and do enough offensively against a defense that Georgia Tech dragged around in Week 1. I also expect a classic atmosphere in "The Swamp," and the blue-and-orange sea will be as passionate and loud as possible.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 24 Tennessee 14
Fallica: You never really want to call the second game of the season a must-win, but this is about as must-win as it gets for the Gators, who were dominated by Michigan in the opener. Florida will get help at wide receiver in the form of James Robinson, but it appears that other suspended players will remain out. Having seen the Tennessee defense gutted by Georgia Tech in the opener, this could be just what the doctor ordered for a sluggish Gators offense. Dating back to last season, the Vols have allowed 514.6 YPG and 34.9 PPG versus Power 5 teams. I'll side toward the hosts.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Tennessee 20
No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats (-4) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Steele: These teams last met in 1984. Kansas State has a slight edge on defense but large edges on offense and special teams. Both quarterbacks, Jesse Ertz and Kyle Shurmur, have opened up on fire. Vanderbilt will be ready for this home game, but Kansas State is the stronger team, and Bill Snyder knows how to win on the road. My computer has Kansas State winning this by eight points, and I agree.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 28, Vanderbilt 20
Coughlin: I thought this would be a great season for the Big 12. After seeing the big out-of-conference wins by TCU and Oklahoma, I am going to ride the lightning with one of my most trusted coaches in the country, Bill Snyder. I was really impressed with the versatility of the offense that the "Purple Kats" have shown in their first two games, as they rushed for more than 300 yards last week and threw for more than 300 yards in Week 1. KSU quarterback Jesse Ertz ranks fourth in the country in passing efficiency and yards per completion. If the Commodores were facing another Big 12 team, who maybe liked to spread the field more and throw more, I would lean toward the SEC team, but I like the overall team versatility of Bill Snyder's group.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 27, Vanderbilt 17
Saturday games
Army Black Knights at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-30)
Steele: Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in 2014 by 14 points and did not look good doing it. It dropped to No. 22 in the polls, but the next two weeks, it beat Kent State 66-0 and Cincinnati 50-28. Last year, Notre Dame was off an upset loss to Navy and dominated Army 44-6, leading 38-6 at the half. You get the point. Ohio State needs to get its offense some confidence. Army has a solid defense statistically, but it rarely faces skill players and offensive lines of Ohio State's caliber. Defensive coordinator Greg Schiano is under some fire, as his defense has allowed 464 yards per game. The Buckeyes have a great front seven, but an inexperienced secondary will be tested by the Army option. When at Rutgers, Schiano always did a great stopping the option, and Ohio State spent some time in August working on that.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 48, Army 10
Purdue Boilermakers at Missouri Tigers (-7.5)
Steele: Missouri is No. 4 in the NCAA in total offense (619 yards per game) but averages 697 yards and 64 points per game versus FCS foes the past two seasons. Against Power 5 teams, the Tigers averaged just 20.5 points per game. Mizzou quarterback Drew Lock hits just 51 percent with a 12-12 ratio and 251 yards per game versus Power 5 teams. He throws for 413 yards per game at 62 percent with a 19-1 ratio versus non-Power 5 teams. I just think Purdue is the stronger team and Jeff Brohms' squad has the true firepower to pull off the upset.
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Purdue 38, Missouri 37
Kent State Golden Flashes at Marshall Thundering Herd (-14)
Steele: Prior to last season's precipitous plunge to 3-9, Marshall had won its home game the prior three seasons by an amazing average of 22 points per game. Kent State was blown out by Clemson and trailed Howard in the second half. The Golden Flashes have played to an average game grade of 54.9. Marshall beat a strong MAC team in Miami (Ohio) and stood toe-to-toe with a strong North Carolina State squad last week. The Herd have played to an average game grade of 80.7, 26 points higher, and they are at home looking to regain their swagger with a bye on deck.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 41, Kent State 17
No. 25 UCLA Bruins (-3) at Memphis Tigers
Steele: Memphis is just 3-7 when hosting Power 5 teams. The Bruins are traveling from one coast to the other and playing at 9:00 a.m. their time. Plus, they have Stanford on deck. UCLA was outgained by Hawaii, but that is misleading, as they led 42-7 in the third quarter. Since their 44-10 deficit to Texas A&M, Josh Rosen has led 12 consecutive touchdown drives, if you take out the kneel-down versus the Aggies and the one-play drive at the end of the half versus Hawaii. Memphis allowed 279 yards passing in the wind and rain versus UL-Monroe. UCLA continues to gain confidence, and I think it gets a solid road win.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 41, Memphis 31
Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-22.5)
Steele: I had Rice as a much-improved team this season and was taken aback when it got destroyed by a powerful Stanford team, but the Owls rebounded with a 437-229 edge in yardage at UTEP. Houston had its opener postponed and went down to the wire at Arizona. Kyle Allen hit 78 percent but with a 1-2 ratio. That Stanford national television blowout might give us value on Rice for weeks, and it could keep this much closer than expected. Houston is 3-10-1 as a home favorite versus nonconference teams and is in a Power 5 sandwich off Arizona with Texas Tech on deck.
ATS pick: Rice
Score: Houston 35, Rice 21
Cincinnati Bearcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-4.5)
Coughlin: Let's start with a little history: The "Battle for the Victory Bell" between Miami and Cincinnati is the longest-lasting collegiate football rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains, first being played in 1888. Sometimes I just have to go with my gut when I see a team play. Last week, I watched this Bearcats team go into the Big House and compete with the highly-ranked Wolverines for 60 minutes. Now, they were decimated by two pick-sixes in a game they ended up losing 36-14, but I liked what I saw. One of the things I liked was how much speed Cincy has on the defensive side of the ball. That speed, along with the experience Luke Fickell has as a defensive coordinator and interim head coach in Columbus, sets up for a better season than I think most expected. Bearcats quarterback Hayden Moore will be a lot more careful with the football after going 15-of-40 for 132 yards, a touchdown and the aforementioned two interceptions. I think Cincinnati wins a tight one.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Score: Cincinnati 20, Miami 17
Tulane Green Wave at Oklahoma Sooners (-34)
Coughlin: Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz is rapidly approaching my top-five favorite head coaches in college football. Last week, I gave Tulane as my "Money Line Pick of the Week" over Navy as a 13-point underdog, and it lost by two points. This week, the boys from New Orleans go to Norman to face the No. 2-ranked Sooners and Baker Mayfield. OU comes in off a great win on the road over Ohio State, its defensive line is worn down after battling the Buckeyes, and Mayfield had to leave the game a couple times with a limp, so I lean toward the enormous underdog here. The fact that the Green Wave have scored 21 or more points in three straight games also makes me like Coach Fritz's team in this spot. I think they keep it close enough.
ATS pick: Tulane
Score: Oklahoma 48, Tulane 20
Oregon Ducks (-14.5) at Wyoming Cowboys
Fallica: Oregon's offense looked great last week against Nebraska, but the Ducks' defense still showed that it is a work in progress. After a good first half, Nebraska was able to pop a few big pass plays and make a game out of what was a 42-14 hole. After laying an egg offensively at Iowa, Wyoming has a chance to get Josh Allen back on a national stage with a big offensive effort here. Since Marcus Mariota left Eugene, Oregon is 1-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite. I don't know if Wyoming can keep Justin Herbert and the Ducks' offense out of the end zone enough to win the game, but I do think they will score enough to stay within the number.
ATS pick: Wyoming
Score: Oregon 45, Wyoming 35
Troy Trojans (-7) at New Mexico State Aggies
Fallica: Don't look now, but Doug Martin's team might have turned a bit of a corner, winning its rivalry game over New Mexico last week and outgaining Arizona State by 149 yards in a 37-31 loss in Tempe. Running back Larry Rose III is now healthy, and quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 799 yards in two games. Troy put up big numbers against Alabama State last week, but in Boise, the Trojans had just 215 yards and turned the ball over three times. It is the home opener in Las Cruces, and with a bunch of experience and momentum from last week, look for New Mexico State to make amends for a couple of bad losses at Troy's hands the past two seasons (52-7 and 52-6).
ATS pick: New Mexico State
Score: New Mexico State 38, Troy 34
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-6) at Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Fallica: Monroe's offense showed some life in its only game, a bad weather trip to Memphis in which the Warhawks outgained Memphis but were done in by four costly turnovers in a game in which they covered as huge underdogs. Matt Viator had Monroe playing much better by season's end in 2016, winning a couple games as big underdogs and covering in another. Southern Miss put forth a scrappy effort against Kentucky in the season opener, allowing just 254 yards, but I don't know if I'm ready to lay points on the road with the Golden Eagles just yet.
ATS pick: UL Monroe
Score: UL Monroe 30, Southern Miss 27
LSU Tigers (-7) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Fallica: I'll be taking the points here. This will be a good test to see if LSU's newfound offensive efficiency (eighth in FBS) is real. The same can be said for the Bulldogs, who lead the nation in defensive efficiency. Since 2014, the Bulldogs and Tigers have played three times, and Mississippi State has a win in Baton Rouge, along with two- and three-point losses. Also in that span, Dan Mullen's team has been an underdog of six or more points nine times; MSU has covered seven of the games and won four outright. If you extend that stretch to the final two instances in 2013, you have nine ATS wins in 11 games.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: LSU 24, Mississippi State 23
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-13.5) at Boston College Eagles
Fallica: BC hasn't looked very good to start the season, but I expect Notre Dame to bring out the best in the Eagles. Traditionally, Boston College has played Notre Dame tough as a big underdog, including two years ago, when a mediocre Eagles team was a 14.5-point 'dog to a Notre Dame team that went to the New Year's Six and only lost 19-16. But BC's success in this role extends further. Going back to the Eagles' epic 1993 upset in South Bend, Boston College has been a touchdown underdog versus the Irish 14 times and is 11-3 ATS with five outright wins. That includes ATS covers in each of the past six instances, with two straight-up wins. After running at will in the opener against Temple, Notre Dame managed just 1.5 yards per carry against Georgia and had a lot of problems blocking up front. Nobody will confuse the entire BC defense with that of the Bulldogs, but defensive end Harold Landry is one of the best in the country and will make it tough on the Notre Dame offensive line. The Irish have their work cut out here.
ATS pick: Boston College
Score: Notre Dame 24, Boston College 17
CFB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/15/17
Our experts are back with their Week 3 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 1-6 in Week 2 (3-12 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 3-1 in Week 2 (6-2-1 season)
Chris Fallica: 1-5 in Week 2 (8-8 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-3) at No. 14 Louisville Cardinals
Steele: Louisville took Clemson down to the wire on the road last season, and the Tigers must now play a second consecutive big game, as they come in off an A+ performance at home against Auburn last week. Louisville has the edge on offense and special teams and will have home-field advantage. Still, Clemson rates a large defensive edge, even though Louisville is allowing just 34 yards per game rushing (1.5 yards per rush). I expect both teams to throw a ton, and I really don't expect anyone to run on the Clemson defense all season. Look for a much higher-scoring game from Clemson than last week and for the Tigers to grab the road win. The biggest matchup edge here is a questionable Louisville offensive line trying to contain the best defensive line in the country.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 34, Louisville 27
Coughlin: This game feels a lot like the last time College GameDay went to "The Ville." Last season, the Florida State Seminoles came to town, and the world was introduced to Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals' offense. You also think of last season's Clemson-Louisville game that ended at 42-36 after being scoreless after the first quarter. In that game, Jackson rushed for 155 yards in the last three quarters, leading an unbelievable comeback that ultimately fell just short to the national champions. This season, Kelly Bryant is the Tigers quarterback, and after watching him for the first two weeks of the season, I just don't see him making enough plays in the passing game on the road in this kind of spot. Don't get me wrong: He has shown absolute fearlessness in the running game, rushing for more than 120 yards and three touchdowns, but the thought here is the Cardinals will force him into throwing situations. He has thrown for only one touchdown this season, so I like the home team to win and cover.
ATS pick: Louisville
Score: Louisville 27, Clemson 23
Fallica: This is a game that I would not play. All games are not meant to be bet on. Sit back and enjoy the brilliance of Lamar Jackson, as well as the dominance of the Clemson defensive line. If you're asking for a lean -- and obviously, if you're reading this column, you are -- I'd take the points (58.5). I think Lamar Jackson's ability to run will help him avoid a few sacks and create something out of nothing. I also wonder if Kelly Bryant is ready for this type of environment. It was very apparent that Auburn could have played eight quarters against Clemson and wouldn't have scored a touchdown. In two games, Bryant has thrown five passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air. He's going to have to open it up a little more here. Jackson and the Cards had huge success in the second half of last year's game, and if they can avoid penalties, sacks and turnovers -- things that have plagued them in recent years -- they can certainly win the game.
ATS pick: Louisville
Score: Louisville 27, Clemson 26
No. 23 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 24 Florida Gators (-4.5)
Steele: Florida started a backup quarterback last season but still led 21-3 at halftime. However, Tennessee roared back and won 38-28, ending their 11-game losing streak to Florida. This time, Florida is at home in "The Swamp." The Gators were without 10 suspended players against Michigan and should get a bunch of them back here. They have a large edge on defense, come in off a loss playing with revenge at home and have the stronger team. I like the Gators to bounce back here, and hopefully, they will be closer to full strength than they were against Michigan.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 31, Tennessee 23
Coughlin: It is make-up or break-up time for the Gators and me. I have backed this team and believed in head coach Jim McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier too many times, and too many times, they have burned me. So this is my last stand. I think the Gators come out roaring with energy and do enough offensively against a defense that Georgia Tech dragged around in Week 1. I also expect a classic atmosphere in "The Swamp," and the blue-and-orange sea will be as passionate and loud as possible.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 24 Tennessee 14
Fallica: You never really want to call the second game of the season a must-win, but this is about as must-win as it gets for the Gators, who were dominated by Michigan in the opener. Florida will get help at wide receiver in the form of James Robinson, but it appears that other suspended players will remain out. Having seen the Tennessee defense gutted by Georgia Tech in the opener, this could be just what the doctor ordered for a sluggish Gators offense. Dating back to last season, the Vols have allowed 514.6 YPG and 34.9 PPG versus Power 5 teams. I'll side toward the hosts.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Tennessee 20
No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats (-4) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Steele: These teams last met in 1984. Kansas State has a slight edge on defense but large edges on offense and special teams. Both quarterbacks, Jesse Ertz and Kyle Shurmur, have opened up on fire. Vanderbilt will be ready for this home game, but Kansas State is the stronger team, and Bill Snyder knows how to win on the road. My computer has Kansas State winning this by eight points, and I agree.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 28, Vanderbilt 20
Coughlin: I thought this would be a great season for the Big 12. After seeing the big out-of-conference wins by TCU and Oklahoma, I am going to ride the lightning with one of my most trusted coaches in the country, Bill Snyder. I was really impressed with the versatility of the offense that the "Purple Kats" have shown in their first two games, as they rushed for more than 300 yards last week and threw for more than 300 yards in Week 1. KSU quarterback Jesse Ertz ranks fourth in the country in passing efficiency and yards per completion. If the Commodores were facing another Big 12 team, who maybe liked to spread the field more and throw more, I would lean toward the SEC team, but I like the overall team versatility of Bill Snyder's group.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 27, Vanderbilt 17
Saturday games
Army Black Knights at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-30)
Steele: Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in 2014 by 14 points and did not look good doing it. It dropped to No. 22 in the polls, but the next two weeks, it beat Kent State 66-0 and Cincinnati 50-28. Last year, Notre Dame was off an upset loss to Navy and dominated Army 44-6, leading 38-6 at the half. You get the point. Ohio State needs to get its offense some confidence. Army has a solid defense statistically, but it rarely faces skill players and offensive lines of Ohio State's caliber. Defensive coordinator Greg Schiano is under some fire, as his defense has allowed 464 yards per game. The Buckeyes have a great front seven, but an inexperienced secondary will be tested by the Army option. When at Rutgers, Schiano always did a great stopping the option, and Ohio State spent some time in August working on that.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 48, Army 10
Purdue Boilermakers at Missouri Tigers (-7.5)
Steele: Missouri is No. 4 in the NCAA in total offense (619 yards per game) but averages 697 yards and 64 points per game versus FCS foes the past two seasons. Against Power 5 teams, the Tigers averaged just 20.5 points per game. Mizzou quarterback Drew Lock hits just 51 percent with a 12-12 ratio and 251 yards per game versus Power 5 teams. He throws for 413 yards per game at 62 percent with a 19-1 ratio versus non-Power 5 teams. I just think Purdue is the stronger team and Jeff Brohms' squad has the true firepower to pull off the upset.
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Purdue 38, Missouri 37
Kent State Golden Flashes at Marshall Thundering Herd (-14)
Steele: Prior to last season's precipitous plunge to 3-9, Marshall had won its home game the prior three seasons by an amazing average of 22 points per game. Kent State was blown out by Clemson and trailed Howard in the second half. The Golden Flashes have played to an average game grade of 54.9. Marshall beat a strong MAC team in Miami (Ohio) and stood toe-to-toe with a strong North Carolina State squad last week. The Herd have played to an average game grade of 80.7, 26 points higher, and they are at home looking to regain their swagger with a bye on deck.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 41, Kent State 17
No. 25 UCLA Bruins (-3) at Memphis Tigers
Steele: Memphis is just 3-7 when hosting Power 5 teams. The Bruins are traveling from one coast to the other and playing at 9:00 a.m. their time. Plus, they have Stanford on deck. UCLA was outgained by Hawaii, but that is misleading, as they led 42-7 in the third quarter. Since their 44-10 deficit to Texas A&M, Josh Rosen has led 12 consecutive touchdown drives, if you take out the kneel-down versus the Aggies and the one-play drive at the end of the half versus Hawaii. Memphis allowed 279 yards passing in the wind and rain versus UL-Monroe. UCLA continues to gain confidence, and I think it gets a solid road win.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 41, Memphis 31
Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-22.5)
Steele: I had Rice as a much-improved team this season and was taken aback when it got destroyed by a powerful Stanford team, but the Owls rebounded with a 437-229 edge in yardage at UTEP. Houston had its opener postponed and went down to the wire at Arizona. Kyle Allen hit 78 percent but with a 1-2 ratio. That Stanford national television blowout might give us value on Rice for weeks, and it could keep this much closer than expected. Houston is 3-10-1 as a home favorite versus nonconference teams and is in a Power 5 sandwich off Arizona with Texas Tech on deck.
ATS pick: Rice
Score: Houston 35, Rice 21
Cincinnati Bearcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-4.5)
Coughlin: Let's start with a little history: The "Battle for the Victory Bell" between Miami and Cincinnati is the longest-lasting collegiate football rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains, first being played in 1888. Sometimes I just have to go with my gut when I see a team play. Last week, I watched this Bearcats team go into the Big House and compete with the highly-ranked Wolverines for 60 minutes. Now, they were decimated by two pick-sixes in a game they ended up losing 36-14, but I liked what I saw. One of the things I liked was how much speed Cincy has on the defensive side of the ball. That speed, along with the experience Luke Fickell has as a defensive coordinator and interim head coach in Columbus, sets up for a better season than I think most expected. Bearcats quarterback Hayden Moore will be a lot more careful with the football after going 15-of-40 for 132 yards, a touchdown and the aforementioned two interceptions. I think Cincinnati wins a tight one.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Score: Cincinnati 20, Miami 17
Tulane Green Wave at Oklahoma Sooners (-34)
Coughlin: Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz is rapidly approaching my top-five favorite head coaches in college football. Last week, I gave Tulane as my "Money Line Pick of the Week" over Navy as a 13-point underdog, and it lost by two points. This week, the boys from New Orleans go to Norman to face the No. 2-ranked Sooners and Baker Mayfield. OU comes in off a great win on the road over Ohio State, its defensive line is worn down after battling the Buckeyes, and Mayfield had to leave the game a couple times with a limp, so I lean toward the enormous underdog here. The fact that the Green Wave have scored 21 or more points in three straight games also makes me like Coach Fritz's team in this spot. I think they keep it close enough.
ATS pick: Tulane
Score: Oklahoma 48, Tulane 20
Oregon Ducks (-14.5) at Wyoming Cowboys
Fallica: Oregon's offense looked great last week against Nebraska, but the Ducks' defense still showed that it is a work in progress. After a good first half, Nebraska was able to pop a few big pass plays and make a game out of what was a 42-14 hole. After laying an egg offensively at Iowa, Wyoming has a chance to get Josh Allen back on a national stage with a big offensive effort here. Since Marcus Mariota left Eugene, Oregon is 1-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite. I don't know if Wyoming can keep Justin Herbert and the Ducks' offense out of the end zone enough to win the game, but I do think they will score enough to stay within the number.
ATS pick: Wyoming
Score: Oregon 45, Wyoming 35
Troy Trojans (-7) at New Mexico State Aggies
Fallica: Don't look now, but Doug Martin's team might have turned a bit of a corner, winning its rivalry game over New Mexico last week and outgaining Arizona State by 149 yards in a 37-31 loss in Tempe. Running back Larry Rose III is now healthy, and quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 799 yards in two games. Troy put up big numbers against Alabama State last week, but in Boise, the Trojans had just 215 yards and turned the ball over three times. It is the home opener in Las Cruces, and with a bunch of experience and momentum from last week, look for New Mexico State to make amends for a couple of bad losses at Troy's hands the past two seasons (52-7 and 52-6).
ATS pick: New Mexico State
Score: New Mexico State 38, Troy 34
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-6) at Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Fallica: Monroe's offense showed some life in its only game, a bad weather trip to Memphis in which the Warhawks outgained Memphis but were done in by four costly turnovers in a game in which they covered as huge underdogs. Matt Viator had Monroe playing much better by season's end in 2016, winning a couple games as big underdogs and covering in another. Southern Miss put forth a scrappy effort against Kentucky in the season opener, allowing just 254 yards, but I don't know if I'm ready to lay points on the road with the Golden Eagles just yet.
ATS pick: UL Monroe
Score: UL Monroe 30, Southern Miss 27
LSU Tigers (-7) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Fallica: I'll be taking the points here. This will be a good test to see if LSU's newfound offensive efficiency (eighth in FBS) is real. The same can be said for the Bulldogs, who lead the nation in defensive efficiency. Since 2014, the Bulldogs and Tigers have played three times, and Mississippi State has a win in Baton Rouge, along with two- and three-point losses. Also in that span, Dan Mullen's team has been an underdog of six or more points nine times; MSU has covered seven of the games and won four outright. If you extend that stretch to the final two instances in 2013, you have nine ATS wins in 11 games.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: LSU 24, Mississippi State 23
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-13.5) at Boston College Eagles
Fallica: BC hasn't looked very good to start the season, but I expect Notre Dame to bring out the best in the Eagles. Traditionally, Boston College has played Notre Dame tough as a big underdog, including two years ago, when a mediocre Eagles team was a 14.5-point 'dog to a Notre Dame team that went to the New Year's Six and only lost 19-16. But BC's success in this role extends further. Going back to the Eagles' epic 1993 upset in South Bend, Boston College has been a touchdown underdog versus the Irish 14 times and is 11-3 ATS with five outright wins. That includes ATS covers in each of the past six instances, with two straight-up wins. After running at will in the opener against Temple, Notre Dame managed just 1.5 yards per carry against Georgia and had a lot of problems blocking up front. Nobody will confuse the entire BC defense with that of the Bulldogs, but defensive end Harold Landry is one of the best in the country and will make it tough on the Notre Dame offensive line. The Irish have their work cut out here.
ATS pick: Boston College
Score: Notre Dame 24, Boston College 17
