MLB Betting Picks & Tips
Oakland (-125) at Detroit; Total: 10
I’m really torn on this game. For one thing, Daniel Mengden should not be a -125 road favorite over anybody. For another thing, the A’s are heading home after a long road trip and the road finale is usually a fade spot. But, as I’ve talked about, I’m looking to fade the Tigers in day games with how little they are invested in the rest of the season. I’m also not a big believer in Anibal Sanchez and neither is the rest of the market given this line.
This line just feels completely off to me. Mengden is coming off of easily his best start as a Major League with a complete game shutout in Philadelphia. With nine shutout innings, Mengden lowered his career ERA to 5.97 in 95 innings of work. He has a 4.60 FIP and a 4.58 xFIP in those 18 starts. He hasn’t walked a lot of batters, but he hasn’t missed very many bats either. He’s fortunate to be living on a .221 BABIP against, which is a byproduct of allowing five home runs out of 20 hits in 23 innings of work. He doesn’t have an extreme fly ball split or anything that would support a low BABIP, so there’s regression coming in that area. I don’t know if it will happen today with the Tigers in a day game, but Mengden is not a guy that I am excited to back moving forward.
Anibal Sanchez is terrible. I’m not going to disagree with anybody that says that. He has a 7.03 ERA with a 6.00 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP. He’s worked just 88.1 innings this season. The Tigers are going to decline his option, so he will be a free agent at the end of the year. There is a lot of incentive for him to put together some good starts here at the end. He struck out 11 over six innings last time out against the White Sox, but he hadn’t had a good start since early August prior to that one. It’s tough to figure out what, exactly, we will be getting from Sanchez here. He’s given up 26 HR in 88.1 innings of work, which isn’t good against a launch-angle-crazed Oakland team.
Still, I have to take a stab on the Tigers as a plus money dog in what truly amounts to a getaway day game for Oakland. Mengden had an out-of-body experience last time out and has clear signs of regression. Sanchez is awful, but how invested will Oakland be today? I don’t expect either team to be invested, but Sanchez has some incentive and the Tigers have been using some more young players down the stretch run.
Kansas City at Toronto (-120); Total: 9.5
Jake Junis is going to be a fixture in that Kansas City rotation going forward. Brett Anderson will hope to be a fixture in somebody’s rotation if his body allows him to be a part of the team every five days. I’m not surprised to see that the sharp side in early betting looks to be the Royals. Junis is a guy that I have touted in the past that has better stuff than his stat line would indicate.
Junis has a 4.15 ERA with a 4.45 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP, but you have to consider what he has done since he returned to the Royals. Junis was recalled for good on August 6. In that span of 44.1 innings, he has a 38/4 K/BB ratio with a 3.05/2.79/3.85 pitcher slash. He’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and has shown excellent control. It’s fair to wonder what his long-term projections look like and he more often than not winds up being a low-end #3 starter or a quality #4 starter, but the market has taken notice of what I have been seeing.
It has been a long and winding road for Brett Anderson. Since 2009, Anderson has only managed to stay healthy enough to work 729.2 MLB innings. He was awful in six starts with the Cubs and spent some time without a home until Toronto offered to give him a shot. He has a 3.27/4.11/3.80 in his four starts and 22 innings with the Blue Jays. He’s thrown a lot of strikes and has done a decent job of inducing weak contact. I certainly understand the market’s hesitance to back him, since he hasn’t been reliable since his 2015 season with the Dodgers. He’s also battling a blister issue, so there’s some uncertainty with that as well.
I like both of these guys in this spot, to be honest. I’d be looking to play under the 9.5 total. Junis and Anderson both throw a lot of strikes and these are two decent defensive teams. I have a slight lean to the Blue Jays in this spot. The Royals looked pretty disinterested in Cleveland, with some fielding miscues and a lot of laziness from the position players on tougher balls to field. Maybe that was just a phase, but it didn’t impress me, as the team knows its competitive window has slammed shut.
Chicago (-130) at Tampa Bay; Total: 8
It was good to see Chris Archer get back on track, but the Rays have had an inept offense for the better part of two months and it was on display again on Tuesday in a 2-1 loss. Things don’t easier today, as Jon Lester takes his turn in the rotation for the Cubs. He’ll be opposed by Blake Snell.
Lester has seen a 16.8 percent drop in his LOB% this season, which means that he has a 4.30 ERA just one season after posting a 2.44 ERA. His FIP and xFIP are also higher, so it hasn’t just been the LOB% regression. There’s more to it than that, as the Cubs defense has fallen off the pace a bit and Lester has allowed more home runs. In fact, Lester has the highest HR/FB% of his career. I don’t think that will be a problem at Tropicana Field, though. The ball doesn’t carry as well here as it does in other parks. Furthermore, the Rays are in the bottom five in wOBA against LHP and lead the league in K% against LHP. The one benefit for Lester this season is that he has maintained a high strikeout rate again this season with 169 in his 165.1 innings of work. I think he shuts down the Rays lineup.
The question then becomes how well the Cubs fare with Blake Snell. Snell has a 4.25 ERA with a 4.36 FIP and a 4.74 xFIP in his 114.1 innings of work. The erratic left-hander is a very high-variance pitcher. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact because his stuff moves a ton, but his control and command are both worrisome. He’s walked 52 and only struck out 100 this season, so he hasn’t missed as many bats as he did last year. Snell actually has a very respectable 3.75 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP in his last 11 starts. He has only issued 18 walks in that span against 55 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. He is getting better and is showing signs of developing.
Given the unfamiliar lefty angle and the fact that Snell may be on to something, I’ll take a shot at the under here. The Rays are a bad offensive ballclub overall and the Cubs haven’t been what most people expected entering this season.
Washington (-155) at Atlanta; Total: 9
Yep, I’m doing this again. We’re going to fade Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a 2.68 ERA with a 3.87 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP. He has a .254 BABIP against and an 83.7 percent LOB%. His vesting option just vested for reaching 180 innings. He celebrated by allowing five runs on seven hits to the Braves over five innings. He struck out eight, but we saw that BABIP and LOB% regression. I’m betting on it again here. He’s had some extra downtime between starts, which may help him, but I don’t care. These stats and these regression possibilities are the hallmarks of my handicapping. I’m taking Atlanta today.
Cleveland (-120) at Los Angeles; Total: 8.5
The Indians just kept right on winning, which did surprise me a little bit. Most players say that the second game with a big time change is the tougher one, but I’m not sure if that carries over to when rosters have expanded. Angel Stadium is a very good venue for Josh Tomlin. It hasn’t been a good venue for Ricky Nolasco, but no venue seems to be.
Tomlin has allowed five earned runs across 16.1 innings since returning from the DL. Tomlin’s overall numbers aren’t great with a 5.04 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.08 xFIP, but he’s shown his usual pristine control and throwing a lot of strikes often leads to giving up some home runs. Fortunately, he’s in a good park for suppressing power. The sample size is small and spread out, but Tomlin has only allowed three home runs over his last 40.2 innings of work. He’s a guy that constantly has to tweak and make adjustments. He’s talked this season about getting too cutter-dependent and he’s mixed up his arsenal a bit better of late.
Ricky Nolasco has a 5.11/5.23/4.75 pitcher slash on the season. Like Tomlin, he has allowed a lot of home runs, but he doesn’t have the great control to go along with it. Nolasco has allowed 34 HR this season. He’s pitched much better at home with a .266/.320/.441 slash against at home and a .296/.360/.578 slash against on the road. I think I’d wait around on this total and see if we can get a 9 with reasonable juice to pop and play the under. The Indians could be a little sluggish with that second game out west and I think this is a decent park for Tomlin to pitch in with that marine air knocking balls hit in the air down a little bit.