MLB Betting Picks & Tips
Tampa Bay (-115) at Baltimore; Total: 9.5
It is amazing that the Orioles were able to stick around in the playoff chase for as long as they were with the rotation that they have. Another shining example of their lack of starting pitcher can be seen on Friday with Ubaldo Jimenez taking the ball for the 25th time as a starter. The Rays will counter with Alex Cobb.
Cobb has had a fine season, but, most importantly, he has been healthy for a large portion of it. Cobb has a 3.63 ERA with a 4.15 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP. He’s worked 173.1 innings of work and has gotten several of his numbers back to his pre-injury state. The strikeout rate hasn’t come back, but the command has been pretty good. What’s also nice to se is that Cobb has maintained his first half pace into the second half and, in some respects, has actually pitched better. One thing that does concern me a bit in this start is that Cobb has reverse platoon splits, which means that he actually fares better against lefties than righties. Righties are batting .269/.304/.429 compared to a .222/.298/.366 slash for lefties. The primary producers for the Orioles are all right-handed hitters. It isn’t the largest sample size, but righties on the road are batting .289/.330/.459 against Cobb. Tropicana Field is a pretty good yard for pitchers and Cobb has certainly fared a lot better at home. In 84 home innings, opposing hitters are batting .211/.255/.351. In 89.1 road innings, they are batting .282/.341/.447.
I don’t have a ton of interest in backing Ubaldo Jimenez and his 6.57 ERA with a 5.42 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP, but there are some reasons to back him. All of the Cobb information above falls into that category, but I can also make a case for Jimenez because of how bad the Rays offense has been. As bad as Jimenez is, and he is bad, he’s facing a lineup that ranks 30th in second-half wOBA at .293 and ranks 29th in park-adjusted wRC+ at 82, which means that the Rays have been 18 percent below league average. There is a major contact quality issue on this ballclub. Unless guys are hitting home runs, there isn’t much in the form of hard contact. Even then, with 81 home runs, which ranks 14th, the Rays are 29th in SLG.
I’d wait this line out and let it climb and then come back on the Orioles when the line peaks. I can’t trust this Tampa Bay offense against any pitcher, even one as bad as Jimenez and Baltimore is a tricky matchup for Cobb.
Boston (-135) at Cincinnati; Total: 9.5
The Red Sox lose a hitter in the lineup today when they visit the Reds in the Queen City. That means Rick Porcello will have to bat. Sal Romano will go on the other side for the home team. Porcello is a guy that we successfully faded earlier in the season, but he has pitched a bit better in the second half. He’s still a guy that has allowed a high level of contact quality, as evidenced by the fact that lefties are batting .281/.327/.516 and righties are batting .286/.323/.469 on the year. Both sides have taken good swings against Porcello and that’s why he has a 4.46/4.49/4.41 pitcher slash in his 193.2 innings of work.
I think there are some fatigue issues present for Porcello. He was a pretty good command artist up until this year. The control has always been there, but he worked 223 innings last season plus a playoff start and has now worked 193.2 innings. Porcello doesn’t turn 29 until after Christmas, but he’s already worked 1,662 innings in his MLB career. Many believe that 2,000 is when stuff starts to decline and health starts to become a major concern. Perhaps that threshold will change as we develop more methods of keeping pitchers healthy and have higher success rates on medical procedures, but Porcello is a guy that could decline quickly in his early 30s. I’m sort of sensing a Yovani Gallardo type of career path for him. Don’t hold me to that, but some of the signs are there.
Sal Romano isn’t grabbing many headlines, but the rook just might be figuring some things out. Romano has worked 14 times across 77.1 innings with a 4.07/4.19/4.46 pitcher slash. He made the jump from Double-A to The Show, so an adjustment period isn’t the biggest surprise. Dating back to July 23, Romano has worked 65.1 innings with a 3.44 ERA, a 3.81 FIP, and a 4.15 xFIP. If we limit that sample to his last six starts, Romano has a 2.09/3.52/3.94. He’s figuring out this pitching thing a little bit and that is a good sign for the Reds going forward. They have some young position player upside, but could use some arms.
This number is too high. The Reds have a solid lineup full of guys that can capitalize on Porcello’s location mistakes. The Red Sox only have a .307 wOBA in the second half and an 86 wRC+. They rank 28th in home runs. This is not a particularly strong offensive ballclub and I think there is a misconception out there about them.
I’m looking to play the Reds today. I think Romano is a little bit underrated now based on his overall slash line from a handful of rough outings.
Chicago (-115) at Milwaukee; Total: 9
One of the things that I have admired all season long about Milwaukee is the team’s resilience. They haven’t let losing streaks snowball and have mostly bounced back in tough spots. They’re in a tough spot today. Yesterday’s loss was particularly devastating. With Corey Knebel unavailable, the Brewers blew the save in the ninth and then lost in the 10th on a Kris Bryant dinger. The loss wasted another good start from Zach Davies and it cost the Brewers the chance to be tied with Colorado for the second Wild Card spot.
How will they bounce back today? John Lackey goes for the Cubs and Brandon Woodruff goes for the Beermakers. Lackey is not having a strong season. He has a 4.62 ERA with a 5.26 FIP and a 4.57 xFIP. Lackey has struggled, but so, too, has the Milwaukee offense. The Brewers are 24th in second-half wOBA and are tied for 28th in wRC+. This is an offense that hasn’t provided much margin for error for the pitching staff, which is why Milwaukee is scratching and clawing for a playoff berth instead of having one locked up.
Lackey has allowed 34 home runs this season, but he has been much more effective in the second half. Opposing offenses hit .258/.322/.516 against him prior to the All-Star Break, but just .231/.306/.394 in the second half to date. We’ll see if he, like many others, can hold the Brewers at bay today.
This is a tricky spot for Brandon Woodruff. The 24-year-old rookie has been effective in his six starts with a 3.28/3.69/4.35 pitcher slash. He’ll be facing the Cubs for the first time, which could give him a bit of an advantage, but after allowing just four runs over his first four starts and 23.2 innings, he has allowed nine runs on 15 hits over his last two starts covering 12 innings. Perhaps the book is out on him with some better advance scouting reports.
I’d be looking to take the Cubs tonight. The Brewers have all the pressure. Not to say that they can’t live up to it, but it’s a tough spot for Woodruff to go up against such a powerful lineup, especially because his own lineup hasn’t provided much in the form of run support.