Sunday 9/24/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

Zcode Fade The Public Plays for week 3:

Week 2 was another winning week for us at 2-1 ATS and improves our YTD to4-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 3.The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are alwayslooking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners byfading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously,
this is writtenon Tuesday (9/19) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

DENVER @ BUFFALO
Denver put on an impressive display while dismantling the Cowboys last weekand the public will be expecting similar results against a mediocre Bills team.Taking a look at ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool we can get an early breakdown:
This is Denver’s first road game and they have to travel across the countrywhile facing a Buffalo team that will be looking to bounce back at home. Let’stake Buffalo +3 (Bookmaker)

PITTSBURGH @ CHICAGO
The Steelers are the better team and the public has reacted.
But the Bears are desperate for their first win of the season and, playingat home, will make a huge effort to get a win. And all we need is a loss within8.5 points so let’s take Chicago+8.5 (5Dimes).

OAKLAND @ WASHINGTON
Oakland, and Marshawn Lynch’s dancing, embarrassed the Jets last week and thepublic loved it.
This is the late Sunday night game and I expect a big effort from Washingtonwith all eyes on them. This is another chance for us to catch a home underdogin a good spot. Let’s take Washington+3 (BetOnline)

Soccer

England - Premier League

11am ET

Brighton v Newcastle

Referee: Andre Marriner

Last Head-To-Heads at Brighton:
1-2 (Newcastle Win)
2-0 (Brighton win)
1-0 (Brighton win)
2-2

Recent Form:
Brighton: 1-2-2
Newcastle: 3-2-1

KEY STAT: Brighton have drawn just one of their last 17 competitive home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Brighton were relieved to beat West Brom but their subsequent defeat at Bournemouth brought them back down to earth. Newcastle have recovered from a wobbly start to beat West Ham (3-0), Swansea away (1-0) and Stoke (2-1), and they can earn a second away win of the season.

RECOMMENDATION: Newcastle (1)

Soccer

France - Ligue 1

11am ET

Strasbourg v Nates

Referee: Sebastian Desiage

Last Head-To-Heads at Strasbourg:
0-1 (Nantes win)
0-2 (Nantes win)
1-0 (Strasbourg win)
2-0 (Strasbourg win)

Recent Form:
Strasbourg: 1-4-1
Nantes: 3-2-1

KEY STAT: Four of Nantes's last five league matches have produced 1-0 scoreline

EXPERT VERDICT: Promoted Strasbourg are struggling to break down Ligue 1 defences – they've failed to score in their last three matches, all of which have been lost – and that has to be a worry ahead of a showdown with mean-spirited Nantes. The Canaries have kept four clean sheets in a row and look supremely solid under Claudio Ranieri.

RECOMMENDATION: Nantes (1)

Soccer

Germany - Bundesliga

12pm ET

Bayern Leverkusen v Hamburg

Referee: Robert Kampka

Last Head-To-Heads at Leverkusen:
3-1 (B Leverkusen win)
1-0 (B Leverkusen win)
4-0 (B Leverkusen win)
5-3 (B Leverkusen win)

Recent Form:
Bayern Leverkusen: 1-3-2
Hamburg: 2-4

KEY STAT: Hamburg have lost on their last five visits to Leverkusen

EXPERT VERDICT: Hamburg's six points from the opening two matches already feels like a long time ago with the Dinosaurs losing their last three outings by an aggregate 7-0. Bayer Leverkusen are rarely a team to trust at short odds given their defensive deficiencies with ten goals conceded in five Bundesliga fixtures, but Freiburg were soundly beaten 4-0 in the last match at the BayArena.

RECOMMENDATION: Leverkusen wins 3-1 (1)

Soccer

Belgium - Division I

12pm ET

Charleroi v Club Brugge

Last Head-To-Heads at Charleroi:
1-3 (Brugge win)
1-0 (Charleroi win)
0-0
2-3 (Brugge win)

Recent Form:
Charleroi: 4-0-2
Brugge: 3-2-1

KEY STAT: Charleroi are unbeaten in nine matches in all competitions

EXPERT VERDICT: Charleroi, unrecognisable from the team which ended last term with just two wins in 12, are the last unbeaten side left in Belgium's top flight and can extend that sequence here. Club Brugge's last away league game ended in defeat at Mouscron, a loss which followed dispiriting Champions League and Europa League exits.

RECOMMENDATION: Charleroi (1)

Soccer

Spain - La Liga

1230pm ET

Eibar v Celta Vigo

Last Head-To-Heads at Eibar:
1-0 (Eibar win)
1-1
0-1 (Celta Vigo win)

Recent Form:
Eibar: 2-4
Celta Vigo: 1-3-2

KEY STAT: Celta have not won any of their last seven away fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Eibar were hammered 6-1 by Barcelona at Camp Nou last weekend but can dust themselves down and respond with a home victory. They take on a Celta Vigo side, who have been poor at the end of last season and at the start of this – losing 11 of 15 La Liga fixtures.

RECOMMENDATION: Eibar (1)

Soccer

Italy - Serie A

2:45pm ET

Fiorentina v Atalanta

Last Head-To-Heads at Fiorentina:
0-0
3-0 (Fiorentina win)
3-2 (Fiorentina win)
3-1 (Fiorentina win)

Recent Form:
Fiorentina: 2-3-1
Atalanta: 3-2-1

KEY STAT: Atalanta have scored 12 goals in their last five matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Fiorentina battled hard but still came up short in a 1-0 loss at Juventus on Wednesday and that could take its toll, particularly as Milan Badelj was sent off on 66 minutes in Turin. Atalanta, meanwhile, crushed Crotone 5-1 and they seem to have found their form following early-season defeats to Roma and Napoli on the first two weekends of the season.

RECOMMENDATION: Atalanta (1)

MLB

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Gant started seven games for the Braves LY; he’s allowed four runs in 9.1 IP in five relief stints this year. He was 6-5, 3.83 in 18 AAA starts this season.

Taillon is 0-2, 7.45 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-1, 5.63 in three starts vs St Louis this season. Pirates are 5-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-5

Cardinals won four of their last five games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost eight of last ten games; under is 13-4 in their last 17 games.

Nationals @ Mets
Scherzer is 3-1, 4.35 in his last five starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. He is 2-1, 3.68 against the Mets this season— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-8-4

deGrom is 1-2, 6.35 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. He is 3-0, 1.99 in his last three starts vs Washington. Mets are 0-4 in his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-2

Washington won four of last six games; under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games. Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 games (over 8-4).

Phillies @ Braves
Pivetta is 1-1, 6.55 in his last four starts; over is 5-3-2 in his last ten. He is 2-0, 3.27 vs Atlanta this season. Phillies are 4-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-15-2

Gohara is 1-2, 6.61 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Atlanta is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1

Phillies lost their last three games; under is 6-1-2 in their last nine. Atlanta won its last three games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Cubs @ Brewers
Quintana is 2-0, 3.00 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Cubs are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4-3

Anderson is 4-0, 2.93 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). He is 2-1, 5.79 vs Chicago this season. Milwaukee is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-2

Cubs won nine of last 11 games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Milwaukee lost three of last four games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.

Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Straily is 1-1, 7.31 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Miami is 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-11-4

Corbin is 1-2, 7.31 in his last three starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. Arizona is 10-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-14-4

Marlins won five of last seven games; their last ten road games went over. Arizona lost four of last six games; under is 5-4 in their last nine games.

Rockies @ Padres
Marquez is 0-2, 6.86 in his last four starts; under is 9-2-1 in his last 12. He is 1-1, 6.94 in two starts against the Padres this season. Colorado is 7-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-7-4

Perdomo is 2-2, 3.38 in his last five starts (under 4-1). He is 0-1, 8.64 in two starts vs Colorado this season. San Diego is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-11-4

Colorado lost five of its last six games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. San Diego won five of its last seven games (under 8-3).

Giants @ Dodgers
Stratton is 1-1, 3.86 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Giants are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-1

Kershaw is 1-2, 5.74 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven starts. He is 2-1, 2.84 against the Giants this year. LA is 10-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 19-3-4

Giants won four of their last five games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Dodgers are 7-16 in their last 23 games; over is 5-4 in their last nine home games.
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American League

Rays @ Orioles
Archer is 0-4, 9.88 in his last four starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. He is 0-2, 7.11 against the Orioles this year. Rays are 7-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-10-5

Bundy is 0-1, 7.54 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-1, 5.19 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this season. Orioles are 10-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-10-2

Rays won three of last four games; three of their last four games went over. Baltimore lost 14 of last 17 games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

New York @ Toronto
Garcia is 0-2, 5.14 in seven starts for New York (under 6-1). NY is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-2

Stroman is 2-2, 3.72 in his last seven starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Toronto 9-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-13-2

New York won eight of last ten games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games. Toronto lost four of last six games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.

Twins @ Tigers
Berrios is 0-2, 4.71 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Twins lost his last ten road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-3

Farmer is 1-3, 9.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Detroit lost his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Twins won their last three games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four. Detroit is 2-13 in its last 15 games; over is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home games.

Angels @ Astros
Skaggs is 1-1, 1.46 in his last two starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 1-0, 3.75 in two starts vs Houston this year. Angels are 2-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-2

McCullers is 0-2, 9.38 in his last five starts, with two DL stints mixed in there. Over is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is1 -0, 0.66 in two starts against the Angels this year. Astros are 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Angels lost their last six games; their last six road games stayed under. Houston won eight of its last nine games; under is 14-3 in their last 17 home games.

Royals @ While Sox
Kennedy is 0-3, 8.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. He is 0-1, 8.59 in three starts vs Chicago this season. Royals are 8-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-17-4

Giolito is 0-2, 3.93 in his last three starts (under 5-1). White Sox are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3

Royals are 4-6 in their last ten games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. White Sox lost four of last six games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.

Rangers @ A’s
Perez is 7-1, 3.61 in his last nine starts; over is 10-7 in his last 17 starts. He is 1-1, 4.00 vs Oakland this year. Texas is 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-13-4

Cotton is 3-0, 6.07 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. He is 1-1, 5.56 vs Texas this season. A’s are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-1

Rangers won four of their last six games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Oakland is 13-3 in its last 16 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Indians @ Mariners
Kluber is 5-0, 1.15 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Cleveland is 9-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-2

Leake is 3-0, 2.49 in four starts for Seattle (under 4-0). Mariners are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-0-1

Indians are 28-2 in their last 30 games; over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Seattle lost seven of its last eight games; under is 13-5 in their last 18.
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Interleague

Red Sox @ Reds
Fister is 0-1, 16.50 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Boston is 4-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8

Stephens is 1-0, 8.31 in two starts this season (over 1-1). Reds split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Boston won eight of last nine games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Cincinnati lost its last five games, three of which went over.
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Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
StL-Pitt: Gant 0-0; Talllon 11-12
Wsh-NY: Scherzer 20-9; deGrom 17-13
Phil-Atl: Pivetta 9-15; Gohara 1-2
Chi-Mil: Quintana 8-4; Anderson 13-10
Mia-Az: Straily 15-16; Corbin 16-15
Colo-SD: Marquez 16-11; Perdomo 12-15
SF-LA: Stratton 5-3; Kershaw 21-4

American League
TB-Balt: Archer 15-17; Bundy 17-11
NY-Tor: Garcia 4-3; Stroman 18-13
Minn-Det: Berrios 13-11; Farmer 4-5
LA-Hst: Skaggs 6-8; McCullers 13-7
KC-Chi: Kennedy 13-15; Giolito 3-3
Tex-A’s: Perez 15-15; Cotton 10-13
Clev-Sea: Kluber 19-8; Leake 3-1

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Fister 7-6; Stephens 1-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Pitt: Gant 0-0; Talllon 6-23
Wsh-NY: Scherzer 6-29; deGrom 9-30
Phil-Atl: Pivetta 11-24; Gohara 2-3
Chi-Mil: Quintana 4-12; Anderson 7-23
Mia-Az: Straily 7-31; Corbin 13-31
Colo-SD: Marquez 7-27; Perdomo 9-27
SF-LA: Stratton 1-7; Kershaw 5-25

American League
TB-Balt: Archer 10-32; Bundy 4-28
NY-Tor: Garcia 5-7; Stroman 6-31
Minn-Det: Berrios 6-24; Farmer 4-9
LA-Hst: Skaggs 7-14; McCullers 4-20
KC-Chi: Kennedy 8-28; Giolito 0-6
Tex-A’s: Perez 12-30; Cotton 10-23
Clev-Sea: Kluber 5-27; Leake 2-4

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Fister 8-15 (6 of last 6); Stephens 0-2
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Umpires
National League
StL-Pitt: Under is 6-3 in last nine Hamari games.
Wsh-NY: Under is 8-2 in last ten Segal games.
Phil-Atl: Three of last four Scheurwater games went over.
Chi-Mil: Four of last five Demuth games stayed under.
Mia-Az: Over is 5-2 in last seven Kellogg games.
Colo-SD: Last four Meals games stayed under.
SF-LA: Three of last four Baker games went over.

American League
TB-Balt: Six of last eight Cederstrom games went over.
NY-Tor: Underdogs are 3-3 (+$149) in last six Carlson games.
Minn-Det: Three of last four Davis games went over.
LA-Hst: Five of last six Little games stayed under.
KC-Chi: Over is 6-2 in last eight Whitson games.
Tex-A’s: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Hallion games.
Clev-Sea: Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Wolf games.

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Five of last six Wegner games went over.
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Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-71 NL, favorites +$316
Total: 155-130 AL, favorites +$36

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-63-8
Total: Over 145-131-12
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Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/19/17
Ariz 28-26-20……43-25–12……..71-51
Atl 27-35-10……26-42-8………..53-77
Cubs 33-31-8…….39-25-14………..72-56
Reds 23-43-9……..30-37-9…………53-80
Colo 38-31-7………40-29-5………..78-60
LA 38-24-13…….41-25-9…………79-49
Miami 32-36-10…….36-26-11………68-62
Milw 37-27-10…….38-29-10……….74-56
Mets 33-39-5……..30-37-7………….63-76
Philly 19-43-16……30-36-9………..49-79
Pitt 31-37-9…….28-33-13………..60-70
St. Louis 32-34-9……..39-25-10………..71-59
SD 21-46-8……..38-29–9…………59-75
SF 16-49-9……..30-33-13……….46-81
Wash 43-23-7……34-33-10………….77-56

Orioles 29-39-5……..31-39-8………..60-78
Boston 31-35-11………34-37-3……….65-72
White Sox 25-40-11………29-42–4…….54-82
Cleveland 45-23-8……..39-24-10……..84-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….30-36-11……..57-74
Astros 37-28-11……..47-24-5………84-52
KC 26-35-13……..30-31-13…….56-66
Angels 26-39-8………31-31-14……..57-70
Twins 38-24-13………38-33-8……..76-57
NYY 34-38-7……….40-28-5…..…74-66
A’s 29-39-10……..32-32-12……..61-71
Seattle 29-39-9……..39-25-11………68-64
TB 36-29-11……..40-24-9……..76-53
Texas 35-27-12……..38-28-9……..73-55
Toronto 30-40-5……..30-33-12……..60-73

%age of times teams score in first inning
(road/home/total- 9/19/17)
Ariz 24-76……..27-74………..51
Atl 17-71……….19-79………36
Cubs 20-72……..26-78………..46
Reds 30-76……..27-76……….57
Colo 20-76……..25-74..……..45
LA 23-76……..26-74..…….49
Miami 32-78……..27-73……….59
Milw 24-74……29-78…..…..53
Mets 34-75……..26-75……….60
Philly 17-78……..24-74……….41
Pitt 22-77……..22-75……….44
StL 16-76……..23-73………..39
SD 23-75……….26-75……….49
SF 17-75……….22-77……….39
Wash 26-73……..30-77……….56

Orioles 17-76……..25-77……….42
Boston 21-77……..18-74……….39
White Sox 24-76……20-75……….44
Clev 22-77……..26-75………48
Detroit 18-74…….27-77………45
Astros 21-77……..29-74………50
KC 18-75……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..22-77……….49
Twins 17-73……..20-77……….37
NYY 19-78……..21-73……….40
A’s 20-76……..27-76………47
Seattle 21-77…….25-77……….46
TB 22-74……..26-77………48
Texas 29-76……..30-74………59
Toronto 26-76……..21-78………47

MLB Trend Report:

12:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota

1:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Toronto's last 25 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games

1:10 PM
BOSTON vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home

1:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
Washington is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 9 games at home

1:35 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:35 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

1:35 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

2:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

2:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games
Chi Cubs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games
Milwaukee is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games at home

4:05 PM
TEXAS vs. OAKLAND
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oakland's last 18 games when playing Texas
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas

4:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 18 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games when playing Cleveland

4:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
San Francisco is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:10 PM
MIAMI vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games at home
Arizona is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home

4:40 PM
COLORADO vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Colorado

8:08 PM
LA ANGELS vs. HOUSTON
LA Angels are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home

MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Tampa Bay (-115) at Baltimore; Total: 9

We finally got a good outing out of Chris Archer, who left his September 2 start with forearm discomfort. I’ve been waiting to see if he was going to get back on track after a couple of subpar performances, but he worked six good innings against a solid Cubs team. I’m still going to take a conservative and tentative approach to Archer, though. He struck out six and the stuff had good life, so that’s a good sign, but I’m still going to hold off. Archer is approaching 200 innings and has had one of the highest pitch workloads in baseball over the last few seasons. I don’t know how much is left in the tank, even with a pretty decent matchup against a free-swinging Baltimore offense.

Dylan Bundy will cross the 170-inning mark today with his first out. A case can be made that the Orioles have been overprotective of the young right-hander, as he just worked 100 innings in a season for the first time since 2012 in the 2016 season. He has had a long list of injury problems, though, so the caution is justifiable, though you have to wonder how Bundy will bounce back next season. On the year, Bundy has a 4.24/4.38/4.77 pitcher slash. Up until this month, Bundy had been better in the second half than the first half, holding opposing batters to a .221/.277/.363 slash line. He had a .247/.315/.454 against in the first half.

Bundy, though, allowed five runs in four innings on September 4 and six runs in his last start on September 18, which led the media to ask if he would be shut down. The final word is that he will not, so he’ll just have to push through it. There is hope for Bundy in this spot with a Rays lineup that has been well below average for a while now. I think it’s a good matchup for him, all things considered, so I’d be looking at the under today. It’s a getaway day game for two teams with nothing to play for and two pitchers that have good matchups.

Kansas City (-110) at Chicago; Total: 9.5

Ian Kennedy and Lucas Giolito are the slated starters for this AL Central matchup in the Windy City. The Royals may be a sneaky team to back over the next week. Their window has slammed shut. They got a title out of it and will lose four key free agents this winter. Today is a really tough handicap, though. Ian Kennedy’s wife just gave birth on Friday. There is a school of thought that athletes have a “baby bump” when those anxious times are in the rearview mirror. On the other hand, this close to the end of the regular season, Kennedy is likely to just want to go spend time with his wife and family.

It hasn’t been a good season for Kennedy anyway. He has a 5.39 ERA with a 5.64 FIP and a 5.34 xFIP. I’d be inclined to fade him in this spot. If it was a start in June or July and he was looking at a long rest of the season, then I’d be more inclined to back him or stay away. Today, though, I think his mind and focus will be elsewhere. The rest of the season will be played at home after Monday’s makeup game in New York. The Royals are a team to back at home next week as they enjoy one last hurrah as a group, but I’m looking to go against Kennedy today.

That being said, I have some legitimate concerns about Lucas Giolito. Giolito has worked 167 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues this year. He worked 136.2 innings last season and just 117 the season before. Giolito’s fastball velocity was down in his last start, but it was good to see him use his secondary pitches to push through it. Giolito has made six starts for the White Sox and has only allowed 13 runs, 11 earned, on 26 hits in 38.1 innings of work with a 29/12 K/BB ratio. Seven of those hits have left the yard, so he has just a .186 BABIP against and an 89.7 percent LOB%. There are some regression signs here to be sure.

I’d probably look at the White Sox team total over as the best play here. The Royals want to finish with a winning mark to cap off what has been probably the best run in franchise history. They are more motivated than the other mediocre teams at this point in time. I could justify a play on the side either way, but I’d go White Sox team total over as my preferred derivative here.

Chicago (-125) at Milwaukee; Total: 9

This has been a fun series, though the stress levels have been high for Brewers fans. After scratching out a one-run win yesterday, Milwaukee got a game back in the Wild Card standings and has a chance to split the series today when Jose Quintana goes up against Chase Anderson.

The Cubs have gotten the version of Jose Quintana that we expected this season. The crafty lefty has a 3.95 ERA with a 3.65 FIP and a 3.28 xFIP since getting traded. He also has 83 strikeouts in 70.2 innings of work, so the league change has paid dividends. Chase Anderson has some signs of regression, but he’s simply carried a low HR/FB% all season long with solid peripherals otherwise and much better command. He has a 2.74/3.57/4.50 pitcher slash.

This game looks like an under to me. There is a lot on the line for both teams and those games tend to be played in tighter fashion. I definitely like Quintana and like Anderson as well. I really think the analytically-minded Brewers have done a lot of positive things for guys like Anderson, Jimmy Nelson, and Zach Davies. I’m not all that surprised to see this rotation and this bullpen take steps forward.

This looks like a low-scoring affair and should be played as such.

Colorado (-120) at San Diego; Total: 8

German Marquez is a guy that I have talked about a lot this season. Last time out, he wasn’t as much help for us, though. Marquez has a 4.41 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.09 xFIP. The innings workload shouldn’t be an issue for him because he worked well over 180 innings last season. I’m definitely not worried about that. He allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings and has had some tougher outings lately.

Dating back to August 13, Marquez has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.42 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP. He has allowed 60 hits in 42 innings of work, with 11 of them leaving the ballpark. His command has really fallen off late in the year. Perhaps he’s pitching through something or the strain of pitching every fifth day in the big leagues has gotten to him. Unfortunately, as much as I like Marquez, he may be a fade pitcher over his last couple of starts. He still has good control with a 39/9 K/BB ratio, but throwing strikes and throwing quality strikes are two different things.

Luis Perdomo is what he is with a 4.57 ERA, a 4.54 FIP, and a 4.26 xFIP. He’s a very extreme ground ball guy, which requires the opposition to string hits together in order to score runs. Sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn’t. The Rockies lineup has been below average pretty much all season, especially when adjusted for park factor.

I’m content with taking a stab at the Padres today. The Rockies haven’t played well for the better part of three months now and San Diego seems to be pushing to the end of the season. This is a team operating with a clear talent deficiency, but it is a team that is 32-35 since the All-Star Break and 11-11 this month. The Padres are six games over .500 at home. They’ve been a sneaky good team to back at Petco and that looks like the case to me today with today’s home finale.

MLB Daily Line Drive

Double-Play Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-153, 8.5)

Tonight on Sunday Night Baseball will be the 19th and final meeting of the season between the Angels and Astros. The Astros, of course, have already clinched the American League West and are getting tuned up for the post-season, while the Angels now sit 4.5 games back in the Wildcard race and will need a minor miracle to get into the one-game play-in against the Yankees.

All good teams go through a slump at some point during the long summer grind. The Astros had theirs and have emerged with flying colors, now winners of eight of their last nine games overall. As they continue their tune-up for October, one of their major areas of concern is Lance McCullers. The hard-throwing righty has been dealing with arm fatigue and will make only his second start since July.

Over his last five starts he owns an ERA of 8.63 and a WHIP of 2.00. These numbers are not good, however throwing at the major league level is not easy when your body simply won't allow you to toss at maximum velocity. The 'Stros are hopeful that McCullers is healthy and tonight will be his tune-up for a key post-season role.

The Angels will counter with Tyler Skaggs who is only 2-6 on the season with a very pedestrian 4.30 ERA in 14 starts. The Astros rank third in Major League Baseball with a .278 batting average against left-handed pitching this season and rank second in baseball (shockingly behind the Detroit Tigers) with a .816 OPS against lefties.

The Astros will get to Skaggs and pull out the victory tonight but there will also be a bit of rust from McCullers on the home side. Bullpens will come into play for both sides and that hasn't been the most reliable tool for either club this season. This game plays out like a 6-3 or 6-4 victory for the Astros.

Pick 1: Astros -153

Pick 2: Over 8.5

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 155-139-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (17-4, 2.35 ERA, $302)

Corey Kluber is putting together a pretty nice little run for the Indians and when I say that, I mean he’s been the best pitcher in baseball since June 1st. The right-hander has won nine of his last ten starts and is currently on a 22-inning scoreless streak.

Over his last three starts, he has allowed only two earned runs (0.78 ERA), 11 total hits over 23 innings of work (0.52 WHIP), and a ludicrous 30 strikeouts to only one walk. Kluber has actually given up more home runs (2) then walks over this stretch.

Corey Kluber looks to continue adding to his CY Young resume in Seattle today and the Indians are available at -201.

Slumping: Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox (5-8, 4.86 ERA, $35)

It had been a couple seasons since Doug Fister had been a highly productive MLB starter, but for a few weeks where he was the best pitcher in the Red Sox rotation not named Chris Sale.

No one believed it would last long, but my goodness things fell apart quickly.

In his last two starts he has thrown six total innings, allowed 11 runs (16.50 ERA) and has a 2.6667 WHIP. Fister has actually walked more batters (6) than he has struck out (4) in those starts.

Foster and the Red Sox are -130 road chalk this afternoon in Cincinnati against rookie Jackson Stephens and the Reds.

Sunday's Top Trends

* Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. +151 vs. Twins.
* Red Sox are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings with Reds. -130 @ Reds.
* Over is 11-2 in Ian Kennedys last 13 starts vs. American League Central. KC/CHW Total: 9.5.
* Under is 11-0-1 in Brewers last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CHC/MIL Total: 9.
* Dodgers are 45-10 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 55 home starts. -293 vs. Giants.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There should be no precipitation impacting any action on the field today across Major League Baseball.

The most notable winds in the forecast are at Oakland Coliseum where the Athletics are hosting the Rangers and will be greeted with a 10-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center. The total is sitting at 9.5. There will be an 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing in from left-center this afternoon at Petco Park for the matchup between the Padres and visiting Rockies. The total is currently set at 8.5.

Ump Of The Day

Will Little will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Houston where the Astros will be hosting the Angels. Not great news for Astros backers as the road team has won 14 of his last 17 games behind the dish.

On the season Little ranks 84 out of 92 in home team winning percentage. If you had blindly bet $100.00 on the home team in his 25 appearances behind the plate you would have lost $1033.

The Angels are +141 road pups tonight.

MLB Umpire Assignment:

967 Minnesota Twins -168 Over 10 -105
968 Detroit Tigers +158 Under 10 -115
Gerry Davis 2017: 16-11, 9-16 o/u (2016: 15-15, 12-18 o/u)

965 New York Yankees -130 Over 8½ -120
966 Toronto Blue Jays +100 Under 8½ -110
Mark Carlson 2017: 14-13, 12-12 o/u (2016: 16-15, 13-18 o/u)

951 Washington Nationals -162 Over 7 -110
952 New York Mets +152 Under 7 -110
Chris Segal 2017: 15-13, 13-15 o/u (2016: 2-4, 3-3 o/u)

979 Boston Red Sox -131 Over 10 -105
980 Cincinnati Reds +121 Under 10 -115
Mark Wegner 2017: 15-13, 15-11 o/u (2016: 14-16, 20-9 o/u)

953 Philadelphia Phillies +127 Over 9½ +100
954 Atlanta Braves -137 Under 9½ -120
Stu Scheurwater 2017: 16-18, 15-18 o/u (2016: 6-6, 8-4 o/u)

955 St. Louis Cardinals -109 Over 9 -105
956 Pittsburgh Pirates -101 Under 9 -115
Adam Hamari 2017: 12-13, 9-15 o/u (2016: 14-18, 19-13 o/u)

969 Tampa Bay Rays -112 Over 9 -105
970 Baltimore Orioles +102 Under 9 -115
Gary Cederstrom 2017: 21-9, 17-13 o/u (2016: 24-9, 13-20 o/u)
Home team is 44-15 in Cederstroms last 59 games behind home plate.
Home team is 8-1 in Cederstroms last 9 Sunday games behind home plate.
Rays are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Cederstrom behind home plate.

957 Chicago Cubs -127 Over 9 +100
958 Milwaukee Brewers +117 Under 9 -120
Dana DeMuth 2017: 17-9, 13-12 o/u (2016: 12-11, 13-19 o/u)

973 Kansas City Royals -109 Over 9½ -105
974 Chicago White Sox -101 Under 9½ -115
Chad Whitson 2017: 20-7, 18-9 o/u (2016: 5-8, 7-6 o/u)
Over is 4-0 in Whitsons last 4 games behind home plate.

975 Texas Rangers -101 Over 9½ -105
976 Oakland Athletics -109 Under 9½ -115
Tom Hallion 2017: 14-15, 17-8 o/u (2016: 13-18, 13-16 o/u)
Over is 20-8-4 in Hallions last 32 games behind home plate.
Over is 5-0 in Hallions last 5 Sunday games behind home plate.
Under is 20-5-2 in Hallions last 27 Athletics games behind home plate.

959 San Francisco Giants +265 Over 7 -115
960 Los Angeles Dodgers -295 Under 7 -105
Jordan Baker 2017: 12-17, 14-14 o/u (2016: 16-16, 18-9 o/u)

961 Miami Marlins +105 Over 10 -115
962 Arizona Diamondbacks -135 Under 10 -115
Jeff Kellogg 2017: 13-14, 15-11 o/u (2016: 18-12, 17-11 o/u)

977 Cleveland Indians -205 Over 7 -120
978 Seattle Mariners +188 Under 7 +100
Jim Wolf 2017: 13-12, 14-10 o/u (2016: 15-16, 15-11 o/u)

963 Colorado Rockies -121 Over 8½ +105
964 San Diego Padres +111 Under 8½ -125
Jerry Meals 2017: 15-16, 14-16 o/u (2016: 13-17, 14-14 o/u)

971 Los Angeles Angels +141 Over 9 -105
972 Houston Astros -151 Under 9 -115
Will Little 2017: 10-15, 10-14 o/u (2016: 18-11, 12-14 o/u)

NFL Trend Report:

BALTIMORE (2 - 0) vs. JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 9:30 AM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________________

CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 101-71 ATS (+22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 46-72 ATS (-33.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________________

DENVER (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

HOUSTON (1 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________________

NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________________

TAMPA BAY (1 - 0) at MINNESOTA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

ATLANTA (2 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 0) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 130-169 ATS (-55.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________________

SEATTLE (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

___________________________________________________

CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 182-127 ATS (+42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

___________________________________________________

OAKLAND (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BALTIMORE vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

DENVER vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

PITTSBURGH vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

CLEVELAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games

ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games

NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

SEATTLE vs. TENNESSEE
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle

KANSAS CITY vs. LOS ANGELES
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

CINCINNATI vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Green Bay's last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home

OAKLAND vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

BALTIMORE @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home

PITTSBURGH @ CHICAGO
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh

TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Minnesota is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

DENVER @ BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver

NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home

ATLANTA @ DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland

HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

MIAMI @ NY JETS
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami

NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants

SEATTLE @ TENNESSEE
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Seattle
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle

KANSAS CITY @ LA CHARGERS
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games

CINCINNATI @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ WASHINGTON
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games at home

StatFox Super Situations

ATLANTA at DETROIT
Play Against - Underdogs or pick (DETROIT) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games 34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )

DALLAS at ARIZONA
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (DALLAS) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game 111-69 over the last 10 seasons. ( 61.7% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game 41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )

Gridiron Angles - Week 3

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
The Buccaneers are 15-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 on the road coming off a home victory where they covered.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
The Titans are 0-15-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since October 31, 2010 coming off a win where they scored at least 28 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-10.9ppg) since December 2014 as a favorite coming off a game where Jarvis Landry had at least seven receptions.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
The Bengals are 0-10 OU (-10.80 ppg) since September 30, 2012 coming off a road game where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
The Vikings are 11-0 OU (9.6 ppg) since November 2005 as a favorite off a game as a road dog where they failed to cover.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Eagles are 14-0 OU (+7.21 ppg) off a loss in which they had more third downs made than punts.

NFL Week 3

Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1) — Baltimore forced 10 turnovers (+7) in winning first two games vs divisional foes; three of their five TD drives have been 40 or less yards. Ravens’ offense has started 10 drives 75+ yards from goal line, has only one TD, one FG, so their defense has been setting everything up. Jaguars won SU as underdogs in their last two London games; they split first two games this year, with turnovers dominating both games. Jax is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Teams split last six meetings; their games the last two years were decided by total of 3 points. Last two years, Ravens are 2-8-1 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite; they host rival Steelers next week.

Browns (0-2) @ Colts (0-2) —Cleveland is a road favorite for just 2nd time in last 4+ years; over last decade, Browns are 5-2 vs spread as a road fave. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road faves. Browns faced Big Ben/Flacco in first two games; they drop way down in class here, facing Colts’ QB Brissett, who is 0-2 as an NFL starter, scoring 0-13 points in those games. Indy lost its first two games, scoring 9-13 points; they scored two TD’s on 25 drives, with 13 3/outs. Rookie QB Kizer got yanked from his first NFL road start; Browns are 5-24 on 3rd down so far this season. Indy is 7-1 vs Browns, with last two wins by total of five points. Cleveland’s only series win was here in 2011. 4 of last 6 series totals were 30 or less.

Steelers (2-0) @ Bears (0-2) — In first two games, Steelers faced rookie QB Kizer, backup QB Keenum; hard to tell much about their defense yet. Steelers are only 8-26 on 3rd down; three of their four TD drives were 75+ yards. Last 2+ years, Pitt is 10-7 vs spread as a road favorite; last 8+ years, they’re 20-13 vs spread vs NFC teams. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road favorites. Chicago turned ball over four times in 29-7 loss in Tampa LW; Bucs’ TD drives were 13-35 yards, plus Tampa defense scored a TD. Pitt has 23 penalties for 221 yards in first two games; they need to clean that up. Steelers lost last two games with Chicago 17-14/40-23; their last win in Chicago was in ’95. How long before rookie QB Trubisky plays for Bears?

Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (0-2) — Miami is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite; they’re 4-11 vs spread in last 15 AFC East road tilts. Jets won last five series games, taking last two played here by 18-21 points. Gang Green won/covered five of last seven home openers. Fish survived their opener in LA last week when Chargers missed last-minute 44-yard FG to win it; Miami kicked FG’s on all three red zone drives, but Cutler was 24-34/225 passing and they didn’t turn ball over. Jets allowed nine TD’s in first two games, with six drives of 77+ yards; opponents are 16-29 on 3rd down. Since 2013, New York is 10-5 vs spread as a home dog; last four years, they’re 8-4 vs spread in AFC East home games.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bills (1-1) — First road game for Denver squad that ran ball for 318 yards, converted 17-30 on 3rd down in pair of home wins. Since 2011, Broncos are 20-10-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-4–2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo allowed only one TD in its first two games; they were held to 176 yards in 9-3 loss in Charlotte LW- they lost field position by 5-10 yards in first two games. Denver won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2014. Broncos won three of last four visits here; last one was in ’11. Denver won/covered six of last seven road openers. Last 2+ years, AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 13-3-1 vs spread.

Texans (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1) — These teams practiced together for few days this summer; they do lot of same stuff, Patriots just do it a lot better. Houston passed for only 98 yards in rookie QB Watson’s first NFL start, but he didn’t turn ball over and had a 49-yard TD run, their only TD of game. Texans are 8-11-1 as road underdogs under O’Brien- they’re 4-11 in last 15 non-divisional road games. New England allowed 700 passing yards in winning first two games, but against veteran QB’s; doubtful Watson can exploit that weakness. Patriots won last six series games, hammering Texans 27-0 in game LY that Brady sat out; they then waxed Houston 34-16 in playoffs. Texans are 0-5 in Foxboro, with 13 points the closest of the five games.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0) — New Orleans is 0-2 for 4th year in row; loss here makes them 0-3 for 3rd year in row, which is bad for job security. Saints allowed 1,025 total yards, 777 thru air in first two games without forcing a turnover; last 3+ years, they’re 11-5-1 as road underdogs, 5-1 in last six NFC South road games. Panthers won first two games and haven’t allowed a TD yet, but they’ve also faced QB’s Hoyer/Taylor. Brees’ offense is big step up in competition here. Carolina is 7-3 in its last 10 games with the Saints; last three were all decided by 3 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in last five visits to Charlotte, losing here last two years by 5-3 points. Panthers are 15-9-2 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite.

Buccaneers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-1) — Bradford’s balky knee (are you surprised?) puts backup QB Keenum (9-16-1 as NFL starter) into spotlight. Minnesota is 14-4 vs spread as a home favorite under Zimmer, 11-1 vs non-division opponents. Under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant in opening win LW; their two TD drives were only 13-35 yards. Bucs converted 8-15 on 3rd down, forced four turnovers (+3). Bucs won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here, by 11-4-19 points- teams haven’t met since 2014. Tampa Bay is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 road openers (8-2 in last 10 as a dog in AO’s). Last 3+ years, NFC North home favorites are 29-14-2 vs spread outside their division.

Falcons (2-0) @ Lions (2-0) — Short week for Detroit team that ran ball 59 times in first couple games, as they try to take some stress off QB Stafford. Since 2011, Lions are 2-8-1 as a home underdog; they’re 15-31 on 3rd down this season and scored TD on either defense/special teams in both games. Falcons are 4-4 as road favorites under Quinn; they threw ball for 9.6/7.2 ypp in first two games. Atlanta is +13 in turnovers in its last 18 regular season games. Under is 14-9 in their last 23 road games. Over is 24-17 in Detroit’s last 41 home games. Atlanta won three of last four games with Detroit; their last meeting was a 22-21 Lion win in England three years ago. Falcons won three of last four visits to the Motor City.

Giants (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1) — Giants scored one TD on 19 drives in losing its first two games by 16-14 points- they’ve run ball 30 times for 97 yards this season. Big Blue is 3-6-1 in last 10 NFC East road games, 5-9-2 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 1-3-1 under McAdoo. Philly is 13-4 in last 17 series games, 5-1 in last six; Giants lost last three visits here by combined score of 78-26. Iggles are 6-3 in last nine home openers. Philly was favored in only 2 of 8 home games LY; they’re since 2012, they’re 12-15-1 as a home favorite (1-1 under Pederson). Eagles are 5-9-1 in last 15 NFC East home games- they ran ball 17 times LW, dropped back to pass 52 times- they need more balance. Under is 10-6 in Eagles’ last 16 home games.

Seahawks (1-1) @ Titans (1-1) — Seattle scored 10 or fewer points in five of their last nine road games; since 2011, they’re 11-5-5 as a road underdog. Seahawks scored only one TD in two games this year, then they missed the PAT after that one, but they also held Packers to 17 points, so the defense is still very potent. Tennessee ran ball for 179 yards LW in easy win in Jacksonville; Since 2013, Titans are 5-9-1 as a home favorite, they’re 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional home fave; over is 9-6-2 in their last 17 home games. Seahawks won six of last seven series games; this is their first visits to Nashville since ’05. Under is 10-7 in Seattle’s last 17 road games. Last 4+ years, NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 14-28-4 against the spread.

Chiefs (2-0) @ Chargers (0-2) — Chargers lost first two games when they missed FG’s in last minute of both games; Bolts are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall- they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as a home underdog. Chargers ran ball for only 108 yards on 36 carries in first two games; over last decade, LA is 1-6 as a home dog in divisional games. Kansas City threw for 584 yards in winning first two games; they scored 25-21 points just in second half the last two weeks. Chiefs are 11-2 as a road favorite under Reid- they’re 10-2 vs spread in AFC West road games the last four years. Chiefs won last six series games, winning last three visits to San Diego, by 3-30-10 points. Over is 9-6-1 in Chiefs’ last 16 road games.

Bengals (0-2) @ Packers (1-1) — Cincy is first NFL team since 1939 Eagles to start season wth two home games and not score TD in either one- they had extra time to prep after Thursday nite loss to Houston and its rookie QB- now they visit Rodgers/Packers, who are coming off bad loss in Atlanta. Green Bay is 5-6 vs spread the last two years when they’re coming off a loss- they have injury issues on offensive line. Packers are 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Bengals won last three games vs Packers by 7-7-4 points; they’re 3-4 in Wisconsin, but 2 of 3 wins came in Milwaukee, not Lambeau Field- they’re 1-4 in Green Bay. Cincy is 6-2-1 in last nine road openers.

Raiders (2-0) @ Redskins (1-1) — Oakland is 4-1 as a road favorite under Del Rio; they won first two games this year by 10-25 points, scoring nine TD’s on 19 drives. Raiders are just 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games vs NFC teams. Washington allowed 538 passing yards in splitting first two games; they blew 13-0 lead in LA last week, but scored in last 2:00 to even their record. Redskins are 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog— over is 7-2 in their last nine home games. Road team won last six series games; Raiders won last three visits here by 1-12-3 points- Redskins’ last home series win was in 1986. Oakland hasn’t turned ball over yet in ‘17; they averaged 7.4/8.2 yards/pass attempt in their two games this season.

NFL Underdogs: Week 3 Pointspread Picks and Predictions

The NFL has often been dubbed a circus. But if it were a real Big Top Show, the Carolina Panthers would be one of those crazy-ass flying trapeze teams that perform without a safety net.

Actually, the Panthers, who are as big as 6.5-point favorites at home to New Orleans in Week 3, would perform without a net while wearing blindfolds and after eating a tub of popcorn – extra butter.

That’s kind of what Carolina is doing now, with tight end and offensive failsafe Greg Olsen out at least eight weeks with a broken foot. Olsen, who has led the team in receptions in each of the previous three seasons, is Cam Newton’s safety blanket – also known as a “bae bae” in my house. When plays broke down, Olsen didn’t. Whether he was the original look or the check down, when shit hit the Cam – excuse me, fan – Olsen was No. 1 for No. 1.

The Panthers have been spoiled in a way, actually possessing two viable options when things were FUBAR. Newton himself is one of the greatest scrambling QBs of all time, with the speed of a running back and the size of a defensive end, Newton could turn the worst-called play into a thing of beauty – like Extreme Makeover: NFL Edition.

But alas, that option (which is the option) is waning as well. Newton, who entered the year with a surgically-repaired shoulder, has been used sparingly as a running threat through two games. And after getting sacked six times and hurting his ankle in last Sunday’s 9-3 win over Buffalo, Carolina will be very coy when it comes to exposing Cam to contact.

So, what will the Panthers do when things don’t go according to plan against the Saints Sunday? Well, they’ll just have to rely on that top-ranked defense, I guess. The same defense that has faced the likes of Brian Hoyer and a post-concussion Tyrod Taylor in the first two games of the season. The same D that’s first two foes sit in the cellar of NFL offenses. I’m not putting too much faith in those defensive numbers.

New Orleans has had a bumpy start to the season, playing a tough Vikings defense on the road and then a pissed-off Patriots team at home. The Saints are 4-0 ATS when getting six or more points against a NFC South rival the past two seasons and somehow people still love to bet against New Orleans on the road, despite it going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 away games.

The Panthers are performing without a net (or two) and I’m taking the six points, waiting for the “SPLAT!” come Sunday.

Pick: Saints +6.5

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)

If you don’t know by now, the Seattle Seahawks care about the start of the NFL season as much as your mother in-law (“Why can’t we plan it for Sunday? Football?! It’s not like he’s playing in the damn games…”).

Seattle has been slow out of the blocks in each of the past three years, going 1-1 SU and ATS in 2014, 0-2 SU and ATS in 2015 (with Kam Chancellor holding out), and 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS last year. Combine their 1-1 SU mark and 0-2 ATS count so far in 2017, and the mighty Seahawks are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the opening two weeks of football since 2014.

Seattle has been outscored 152-141 in those contests, for an average losing score of 19-17.6. That’s absolutely fine by me if I’m getting three points from oddsmakers at Tennessee Sunday. But I expect more than just a close cover from Pete Carroll’s crew in Week 3.

The third game of the schedule has been golden for Seattle, with the team going a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in Week 3 the past three years (winning those games by an average score of 29.7-12.7), and 16-5 ATS in Week 3 the previous 21 seasons.

All the headlines read the same about the Seahawks offense as we head into Week 3 as they did the prior three years, so I’m expecting another turnaround versus the Titans.

Pick: Seahawks +3

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 40.5)

For a NFL column that is solely limited to picking underdogs each and every week, getting a chance to go against the Browns is like the solar eclipse of football betting.

Sure, Cleveland has shown some improvements in the early workings of the 2017 campaign but, c’mon, it couldn’t get much worse than that 2016 crap fest. The Browns got smacked by Baltimore in Week 2, have scored just 28 points through two games, and haven’t been in the role of road favorite since Week 12 of the 2010 season.

Indianapolis put up a good fight against Arizona last Sunday and has now had quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the offense for three weeks. I like this guy. He’s been raised in the Patriots’ program, played well in place of Brady/Garappolo last year, can keep plays alive with his feet, and started developing chemistry with the Colts’ top targets versus the Cardinals.

That blowout loss to the Rams in Week 1 is still skewing Indianapolis’ odds and has delivered the talking rainbow unicorn of NFL underdog betting in Week 3.

Pick: Colts +1

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 2-4 ATS