Chonce NFL (week 3)

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Last week (link): 7-0 + 8 units

YTD: 13-3 + 12.65 units

Plays so far:

Balt -4 - 2 units


I am trying to make sense of Thursday's game right now. As noted in last week's thread I am due for a speedy regression to the mean, so need to be careful.
 

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chonce.........nicely done, solid capping..........BOL with your action this week.........indy
 

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Add:

NO + 6 - 1 unit


I think Carolina will be used in tons of teasers, but the line is still going the other way (5.5 in some outs) so I am going to grab the six now. Lean under if the game creep back up toward the opening like. At 47 I have no interest though.

Still mulling other games: leaning NYJ, Buffalo, NYG, NE but that could change.
 

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NE - 13 - 1 unit


The rest of the games I (think) I like (Buff, Giants, Jets) seem like the line would be more likely to be in my favor so I am holding tight on those for now.
 

LADY LUCK
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Very nice work chonce

I have to be a closet case Patriot fan here in Dallas but I do love your Patriots pretty much every week.
 

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Can i ask why you like the giants?


Well I haven't made a bet so that is just an early lean. But my logic is that the 2-week sample size is probably leading to an overreaction as to how bad the Giants are. This is a divisional game and 0-2 teams are truly desperate for a win. If you made this line before the start of the season what is it: PHI -3? So I see some value. But again, I haven't decided on the game, just a reaction to the line.
 

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Well I haven't made a bet so that is just an early lean. But my logic is that the 2-week sample size is probably leading to an overreaction as to how bad the Giants are. This is a divisional game and 0-2 teams are truly desperate for a win. If you made this line before the start of the season what is it: PHI -3? So I see some value. But again, I haven't decided on the game, just a reaction to the line.

This is not to say the Giants aren't dysfunctional or anything. Just about the spot and the number.
 

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0-1 for the week as the Rams went WAY over team total.

YTD: 13-4 + 11.52 units

Add:

Cin/GB UNDER 46.5 - 1 unit
NYJ + 6.5 (-115) - 1 unit


Sunday Card Overall

Bal - 4 - 2 units

NE - 13 - 1 unit
NO + 6 - 1 unit
NYJ + 6.5 (-115) - 1 unit

GB UNDER 46.5 - 1 unit



This will likely be it. I keep wavering on Buffalo and NYG but you got to pick your spots. I may look for Team Total values when they open. And of course, 2nd half lines. GL all
 

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Wow, Ravens look so bad, an are not a team well suited for a comeback. Jags get ball at half. I may be fade material today guys. 13-3 the law of averages seems like it is chasing me like that monster from Stranger Things.
 

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Wow should've bet more on that 2nd half play. I feel it is safe to call this game at 36-0.

So far today 1-1 - 1.05 units.

YTD: 14-5 + 10.47 units


 

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ALmost played BufF either +3.5 or TT OVER 18 but I chickened out. But may make a play at half of that game.
 

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