CFB betting look for Week 4: Arkansas' Aggie Hurdle
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
9/19/17
College football look ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us in Week 4 for a long-term buy in the ACC, words of caution about a team that impressed Saturday night, and a look at what could be the biggest game yet for one SEC head coach. We'll also reach into the handicapper's toolbox for the five keys to attacking teams coming off bad losses.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were 2-10 in Bronco Mendenhall's debut last season, but despite a still-thin roster and tough nonconference schedule, they could flirt with what would be just the school's second bowl berth in a decade. Once the team earns that first set of postseason practices, expect Virginia to be a fixture on the bowl landscape because this team is being built for sustained success.
Mendenhall is a defensive guru, an inheritor of the 3-3-5 wisdom passed from Joe Lee Dunn to Rocky Long. Mendenhall's team is built on defense and culture first, but is also getting good quarterback play from senior Kurt Benkert. We're mainly buying long term, as the real fun is still a few years away, but even now, the defense should keep Virginia competitive enough to improve on last year's 5-7 mark against the number. Be more willing to buy the Cavs against rushing teams than passing teams, starting at Boise State this week if injured Broncos passer Brett Rypien isn't back.
Sell
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns' showing in the Coliseum will impress some enough to dismiss the ugly opening loss to Maryland as an anomaly and consider them a top-25 team. Whether you're bullish or bearish on Texas' long-term prospects under Tom Herman, remind yourself that this is still a major overhaul of both roster and culture. There will be some more rough moments in 2017 for a squad that lacks an offensive identity, is still learning how to prepare, has yet to become player-led rather than coach-led, and lacks maturity when it comes to attention to detail and avoiding unforced errors.
Unlike buying Virginia, selling Texas is more of a short-term move. The Longhorns have an open date to marinate in their moral victory, but the following four-game stretch versus Iowa State, Kansas State and both Oklahoma schools is a tough one given where the program is in its development. Zero wins in those four games seems more likely than two, and after Saturday night's performance, the upcoming prices might leave Texas backers expecting too much too soon.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5)
Texas A&M has won all four meetings with Bret Bielema's Arkansas teams. The Aggies have entered every season as the better team and every meeting as the favorite, but despite the wins, they have tended to fade after this September clash, while the Hogs have surged. Arkansas has been the right side against the number in three of four. The Hogs have been close and have made hay mostly with their physical game plan, but haven't been able to handle A&M's skill on the difference-making plays. Bielema's team badly needs to finally beat A&M, and now that the Aggies are in turmoil, it's mandatory.
Arkansas' 28-7 loss to TCU was both much closer and far more lopsided than the score indicates. The game was 14-7 much of the way, and the Frogs padded the margin only in the waning minutes. But it was also among the worst losses of the Bielema era -- a supposed "finesse" team from the Big 12 that Arkansas had beaten the previous year came to Fayetteville and was more physical than the Hogs in embarrassing fashion. TCU ran the ball through the A-gap with authority on offense and controlled the line of scrimmage on defense, even with a unit built to defend Big 12 passing offenses, not the downhill brawn and accompanying play-action that Arkansas brings. Arkansas was powerless in some areas that are considered core points of pride within the program, and the team was in some shell-shocked disorder after the loss.
The need to beat A&M, and to bounce back from an alarming performance that has the fan base restless, makes this a defining game for Bielema, perhaps the biggest game he's had at Arkansas. Texas A&M is 1-5 against the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left town and has been steadily slipping in the SEC West pecking order. Arkansas has provided half of Kevin Sumlin's SEC West wins in that span, and only Arkansas (10-14) has won fewer conference games than A&M (11-13) among West teams. These two have been occupying the basement of an elite division, and if Arkansas wants to climb out, Texas A&M is the first hurdle to clear. And it has to be now, as the current Aggies are a disaster. On the field, they've logged about 40 minutes of FBS-caliber football in three games, and off the field, the heat is on a coaching staff that has already lost the faith of too many administrators, fans and players. If Bielema doesn't move his program past Sumlin's crumbling A&M regime this year, starting with a win in Arlington this weekend, it will be hard for most Razorbacks to keep believing that he can.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Teams off especially difficult losses are often good candidates to fade, but there are factors to consider first.
Crushing losses are delivered in many forms: last-minute game winners, big blown leads, losses to bitter rivals, unexpected losses as big favorites. The responses vary too. UNLV lost to Howard as a 45-point favorite, but destroyed Idaho on the road the following week. Texas A&M blew a huge lead at UCLA and then nearly lost to Nicholls State the next week.
If the loss was truly crushing, the response mostly involves temporarily losing the will to prepare to win, and consequently playing poorly the following week. This is not sufficiently true to blindly attack teams in these spots, but it's a good start. With a decent read on each team and a solid definition of what qualifies as a particularly demoralizing or dispiriting loss, you're on your way. Let's look at five factors to consider, and how each applies to the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks catching a field goal at Central Michigan this week.
1. Be sure of our read that the loss is indeed soul-crushing. Most losses are very disappointing, so is this one truly special in some way? Miami definitely checks this box. Cincinnati is Miami's biggest rival. The series is the oldest west of the Allegheny Mountains and the oldest among nonconference rivals. The tradition of the traveling Victory Bell trophy is over 100 years old, and it's been 12 years since Miami had possession. The RedHawks very badly want to beat Cincinnati, and they've been close. The past three meetings have been one-score affairs and easy covers for the underdog.
Saturday provided a prime opportunity to get over the hump. It is the fourth year of Chuck Martin's undeniably progressing regime, and he has what should be his best team yet. Miami entered as a favorite and was set to play in front of the largest home crowd of the Chuck Martin era for a prime-time night game against a rebuilding and ripe-for-the-picking rival with a brand new staff. It was the perfect time, the perfect setup, the perfect night ... and Miami blew it. The RedHawks led throughout, but the Bearcats scored twice in the final three minutes, the last of which was a 14-yard pick-six thrown when Miami was merely trying to run clock and ice the game. This was assuredly and epically soul-crushing.
2. Review what we know about the team's mental makeup. We don't mean the attitude now, in the wake of the loss, but rather the overall makeup. Tough-minded, unified teams with good leadership and a stronger commitment to values -- finishing, truly taking the schedule one week at a time, or desire to achieve goals still in reach -- are better candidates to bounce back. Weaker, less mentally tough teams that aren't as tight and have fewer leaders, teams that are already inconsistent week-to-week or teams whose goals have been destroyed, are less likely to rebound quickly. We need to understand the downtrodden team's general mental toughness and capacity for resilience.
Covering Miami's intangibles is beyond the scope here, but it's worth mentioning that the RedHawks also felt that they "gave away" the opener at Marshall, so there's some residual pain of the same flavor already in the bank. That's a small plus.
3. Think about how the game sets up, and how the team coming off the loss views it. Road games typically make for a tougher bounce-back, as do short weeks, bad weather, being a large or road favorite (which suggests that the upcoming opponent is not of sufficient interest or danger).
Being on the road is a big advantage here, and while Miami isn't favored, the RedHawks did beat Central Michigan 37-17 last year, and the Chippewas haven't posted any eye-opening victories so far this year. That's a major plus -- the less threatening the opponent, the easier it is to underprepare.
4. Know our hammer and how they match up. Who are we trusting to beat this downtrodden team that we're trying to take advantage of? Is it a team we're eager to back? Is it a winless bottom-feeder in disarray? Is it a team likely to bring its own A-game this week? Can it match talent and personnel, and will it exploit this opponent's specific weaknesses?
Blindly investing in Miami's failure to get off the mat is not enough. All the usual questions have to be answered about the opponent. How much we can trust Central Michigan and how well this team matches up is beyond our scope here. We will say that absent matchup considerations and reads on how well our team is likely to play, we generally prefer a team such as Central Michigan that relies on physicality, mass and moving people at the line of scrimmage to a team that relies on execution in the passing game. The former comes with fewer unforced errors, and physicality at the line of scrimmage has more potential to wear down and eventually break a fragile or demoralized foe.
5. Get a read on the response. All bad losses don't spawn bad encores. Some understanding of the response during the week is the most important piece. If we've made mistakes with any of the above assumptions -- by misdiagnosing the actual pain of the loss, the team's mental toughness, the advantages or disadvantages of the next game's circumstances, or the capabilities of our hammer -- then our read might be tainted anyway.
We'll observe the words and behavior of Miami players, coaches and anybody else who influences or offers clues into the team's mindset and preparation. Fan base anger, apathy and despair matters. Local reporters know the vibe on campus. Players' tweets are clues. In this case, we're fortunate that Chuck Martin makes public appearances fairly late in the week. We noticed that in the immediate aftermath, Martin placed the blame entirely on himself. Starting there is usually a coach's best route in this spot, but the effect of that tactic remains to be seen.
The bad loss points the way to a potentially profitable spot, but that's where the handicapper's work begins. From there, we gather the best answers we can to the questions these five factors pose, and then put the pieces together and decide if the evidence merits investment.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
9/19/17
College football look ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us in Week 4 for a long-term buy in the ACC, words of caution about a team that impressed Saturday night, and a look at what could be the biggest game yet for one SEC head coach. We'll also reach into the handicapper's toolbox for the five keys to attacking teams coming off bad losses.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were 2-10 in Bronco Mendenhall's debut last season, but despite a still-thin roster and tough nonconference schedule, they could flirt with what would be just the school's second bowl berth in a decade. Once the team earns that first set of postseason practices, expect Virginia to be a fixture on the bowl landscape because this team is being built for sustained success.
Mendenhall is a defensive guru, an inheritor of the 3-3-5 wisdom passed from Joe Lee Dunn to Rocky Long. Mendenhall's team is built on defense and culture first, but is also getting good quarterback play from senior Kurt Benkert. We're mainly buying long term, as the real fun is still a few years away, but even now, the defense should keep Virginia competitive enough to improve on last year's 5-7 mark against the number. Be more willing to buy the Cavs against rushing teams than passing teams, starting at Boise State this week if injured Broncos passer Brett Rypien isn't back.
Sell
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns' showing in the Coliseum will impress some enough to dismiss the ugly opening loss to Maryland as an anomaly and consider them a top-25 team. Whether you're bullish or bearish on Texas' long-term prospects under Tom Herman, remind yourself that this is still a major overhaul of both roster and culture. There will be some more rough moments in 2017 for a squad that lacks an offensive identity, is still learning how to prepare, has yet to become player-led rather than coach-led, and lacks maturity when it comes to attention to detail and avoiding unforced errors.
Unlike buying Virginia, selling Texas is more of a short-term move. The Longhorns have an open date to marinate in their moral victory, but the following four-game stretch versus Iowa State, Kansas State and both Oklahoma schools is a tough one given where the program is in its development. Zero wins in those four games seems more likely than two, and after Saturday night's performance, the upcoming prices might leave Texas backers expecting too much too soon.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5)
Texas A&M has won all four meetings with Bret Bielema's Arkansas teams. The Aggies have entered every season as the better team and every meeting as the favorite, but despite the wins, they have tended to fade after this September clash, while the Hogs have surged. Arkansas has been the right side against the number in three of four. The Hogs have been close and have made hay mostly with their physical game plan, but haven't been able to handle A&M's skill on the difference-making plays. Bielema's team badly needs to finally beat A&M, and now that the Aggies are in turmoil, it's mandatory.
Arkansas' 28-7 loss to TCU was both much closer and far more lopsided than the score indicates. The game was 14-7 much of the way, and the Frogs padded the margin only in the waning minutes. But it was also among the worst losses of the Bielema era -- a supposed "finesse" team from the Big 12 that Arkansas had beaten the previous year came to Fayetteville and was more physical than the Hogs in embarrassing fashion. TCU ran the ball through the A-gap with authority on offense and controlled the line of scrimmage on defense, even with a unit built to defend Big 12 passing offenses, not the downhill brawn and accompanying play-action that Arkansas brings. Arkansas was powerless in some areas that are considered core points of pride within the program, and the team was in some shell-shocked disorder after the loss.
The need to beat A&M, and to bounce back from an alarming performance that has the fan base restless, makes this a defining game for Bielema, perhaps the biggest game he's had at Arkansas. Texas A&M is 1-5 against the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left town and has been steadily slipping in the SEC West pecking order. Arkansas has provided half of Kevin Sumlin's SEC West wins in that span, and only Arkansas (10-14) has won fewer conference games than A&M (11-13) among West teams. These two have been occupying the basement of an elite division, and if Arkansas wants to climb out, Texas A&M is the first hurdle to clear. And it has to be now, as the current Aggies are a disaster. On the field, they've logged about 40 minutes of FBS-caliber football in three games, and off the field, the heat is on a coaching staff that has already lost the faith of too many administrators, fans and players. If Bielema doesn't move his program past Sumlin's crumbling A&M regime this year, starting with a win in Arlington this weekend, it will be hard for most Razorbacks to keep believing that he can.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Teams off especially difficult losses are often good candidates to fade, but there are factors to consider first.
Crushing losses are delivered in many forms: last-minute game winners, big blown leads, losses to bitter rivals, unexpected losses as big favorites. The responses vary too. UNLV lost to Howard as a 45-point favorite, but destroyed Idaho on the road the following week. Texas A&M blew a huge lead at UCLA and then nearly lost to Nicholls State the next week.
If the loss was truly crushing, the response mostly involves temporarily losing the will to prepare to win, and consequently playing poorly the following week. This is not sufficiently true to blindly attack teams in these spots, but it's a good start. With a decent read on each team and a solid definition of what qualifies as a particularly demoralizing or dispiriting loss, you're on your way. Let's look at five factors to consider, and how each applies to the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks catching a field goal at Central Michigan this week.
1. Be sure of our read that the loss is indeed soul-crushing. Most losses are very disappointing, so is this one truly special in some way? Miami definitely checks this box. Cincinnati is Miami's biggest rival. The series is the oldest west of the Allegheny Mountains and the oldest among nonconference rivals. The tradition of the traveling Victory Bell trophy is over 100 years old, and it's been 12 years since Miami had possession. The RedHawks very badly want to beat Cincinnati, and they've been close. The past three meetings have been one-score affairs and easy covers for the underdog.
Saturday provided a prime opportunity to get over the hump. It is the fourth year of Chuck Martin's undeniably progressing regime, and he has what should be his best team yet. Miami entered as a favorite and was set to play in front of the largest home crowd of the Chuck Martin era for a prime-time night game against a rebuilding and ripe-for-the-picking rival with a brand new staff. It was the perfect time, the perfect setup, the perfect night ... and Miami blew it. The RedHawks led throughout, but the Bearcats scored twice in the final three minutes, the last of which was a 14-yard pick-six thrown when Miami was merely trying to run clock and ice the game. This was assuredly and epically soul-crushing.
2. Review what we know about the team's mental makeup. We don't mean the attitude now, in the wake of the loss, but rather the overall makeup. Tough-minded, unified teams with good leadership and a stronger commitment to values -- finishing, truly taking the schedule one week at a time, or desire to achieve goals still in reach -- are better candidates to bounce back. Weaker, less mentally tough teams that aren't as tight and have fewer leaders, teams that are already inconsistent week-to-week or teams whose goals have been destroyed, are less likely to rebound quickly. We need to understand the downtrodden team's general mental toughness and capacity for resilience.
Covering Miami's intangibles is beyond the scope here, but it's worth mentioning that the RedHawks also felt that they "gave away" the opener at Marshall, so there's some residual pain of the same flavor already in the bank. That's a small plus.
3. Think about how the game sets up, and how the team coming off the loss views it. Road games typically make for a tougher bounce-back, as do short weeks, bad weather, being a large or road favorite (which suggests that the upcoming opponent is not of sufficient interest or danger).
Being on the road is a big advantage here, and while Miami isn't favored, the RedHawks did beat Central Michigan 37-17 last year, and the Chippewas haven't posted any eye-opening victories so far this year. That's a major plus -- the less threatening the opponent, the easier it is to underprepare.
4. Know our hammer and how they match up. Who are we trusting to beat this downtrodden team that we're trying to take advantage of? Is it a team we're eager to back? Is it a winless bottom-feeder in disarray? Is it a team likely to bring its own A-game this week? Can it match talent and personnel, and will it exploit this opponent's specific weaknesses?
Blindly investing in Miami's failure to get off the mat is not enough. All the usual questions have to be answered about the opponent. How much we can trust Central Michigan and how well this team matches up is beyond our scope here. We will say that absent matchup considerations and reads on how well our team is likely to play, we generally prefer a team such as Central Michigan that relies on physicality, mass and moving people at the line of scrimmage to a team that relies on execution in the passing game. The former comes with fewer unforced errors, and physicality at the line of scrimmage has more potential to wear down and eventually break a fragile or demoralized foe.
5. Get a read on the response. All bad losses don't spawn bad encores. Some understanding of the response during the week is the most important piece. If we've made mistakes with any of the above assumptions -- by misdiagnosing the actual pain of the loss, the team's mental toughness, the advantages or disadvantages of the next game's circumstances, or the capabilities of our hammer -- then our read might be tainted anyway.
We'll observe the words and behavior of Miami players, coaches and anybody else who influences or offers clues into the team's mindset and preparation. Fan base anger, apathy and despair matters. Local reporters know the vibe on campus. Players' tweets are clues. In this case, we're fortunate that Chuck Martin makes public appearances fairly late in the week. We noticed that in the immediate aftermath, Martin placed the blame entirely on himself. Starting there is usually a coach's best route in this spot, but the effect of that tactic remains to be seen.
The bad loss points the way to a potentially profitable spot, but that's where the handicapper's work begins. From there, we gather the best answers we can to the questions these five factors pose, and then put the pieces together and decide if the evidence merits investment.
