How Vegas Ranks Top 25 CFB Teams

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hacheman@therx.com
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How Vegas ranks top 25 CFB teams
Phil Steele
ESPN Insider
8/20/17

Welcome to the fourth issue of my weekly top 25 Vegas power ratings for 2017. I have nine sets of power ratings, and I will supply the one set that is closest to what Las Vegas uses. The folks over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook are giving me their ratings this year, and last week I also brought in a comparison to my average game grades from philsteele.com. These take into account this year's stats, including yards rushing, passing and points for both offense and defense, as well as opponent strength.

Here are the top 25 teams for Week 4:

All odds referenced below are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


1. Alabama Crimson Tide (Rating: 140.6)

Alabama is only No. 4 by the FPI ratings, and my average game grade ratings have them third. Bottom line: This team would be favored over everyone at a neutral site and remains No. 1 in the Vegas ratings. Last week the Tide did have a 2.4 rating edge over the No. 2 team, but this week it is down to 0.1.


2. Oklahoma Sooners (Rating: 140.5)

The Sooners had the most impressive road win this season, at Ohio State as a touchdown 'dog two weeks ago. They rate No. 1 in my average game grade ratings and are No. 1 in the FPI for the first time. Westgate has them at No. 2.


3. Clemson Tigers (Rating: 140.4)

While the Tigers come in third, they are just 0.2 away from the top spot. They are coming off back-to-back impressive wins and are the defending champs. My average game grades have them No. 2 and everyone else has them third.


4. Penn State Nittany Lions (Rating: 138.3)

Penn State is a team whose Westgate rating differs from mine by three spots, as the sportsbook has them at No. 7. Penn State is fifth in the FPI, and this set of Vegas power ratings has them here, too. I feel right now that the Nittany Lions are the best team in the Big Ten, but they will still be a 'dog in Columbus on Oct. 28, when you factor in the home-field advantage.


5. Ohio State Buckeyes (Rating: 136.1)

FPI finally dropped the Buckeyes from their No. 1 spot this week, but only to No. 2. Westgate still has them at No. 4 and my average game grade is seventh. Ohio State has some stat-padding games on deck.


6. USC Trojans (Rating: 136.0)

USC drops three spots in the rankings after needing overtime to dispatch Texas last week. Westgate has the Trojans at No. 5, and FPI at just No. 12. USC was dominant against Stanford two weeks ago, and with the Trojans' talent they would be favored over most.


7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Rating: 135.9)

The Cowboys continue to climb the charts and led Pittsburgh 49-14 at the half last week. They opened the season at No. 14 and are No. 6 at Westgate, No. 4 in my average game grades and No. 8 in the FPI. Their 3-0 ATS record does not hurt their ranking.


8. Washington Huskies (Rating: 135.0)

Washington is only No. 23 in my average game grades, which takes into account just this season's numbers, and the Huskies are 1-2 ATS after not beating Rutgers or Fresno State as impressively as expected. They remain No. 8 here and at Westgate and are No. 7 with FPI.


9. Wisconsin Badgers (Rating: 134.9)

The Badgers routed BYU 40-6 on the road and moved up one spot with LSU's tumble out of the top 10. Westgate has them at No. 10, with FPI at No. 6 and my game grade at No. 9.


10. Florida State Seminoles (Rating: 134.3)

The Seminoles would be much higher if they had their starting quarterback. They could make a big jump this week if QB James Blackmon is impressive versus a tough NC State defense. Westgate and FPI both have FSU at No. 9.


11. Michigan Wolverines (Rating: 132.2)

The Wolverines led Air Force and Cincinnati by only three points late in the third quarter of each game. They drop a little power-rating wise, but stay at this spot in the rankings. Michigan is No. 6 in my game grades, but No. 18 in FPI.


12. Miami Hurricanes (Rating: 130.9)

Miami has had its past two games postponed and its power ratings stay the same. Westgate dropped the Hurricanes from No. 14 to No. 17, and FPI from No. 25 to No. 27 without them playing a game.


13. Auburn Tigers (Rating: 129.6)

My ratings expected Auburn to lose to Clemson by 8.45 points, and it lost by eight. The Tigers were supposed to beat Mercer by more than they did so they drop a little, but with LSU's plummet they move up one spot.


14. Georgia Bulldogs (Rating: 129.5)

Georgia won in South Bend and did enough last week to move up one spot. Westgate has the Bulldogs at No. 14, while FPI has them at No. 17.


15. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Rating: 129.1)

Three games and three impressive wins for Mississippi State, but Vegas power ratings move a little slower than do computer ratings. Case in point here: Westgate has the Bulldogs at No. 20, while my average game grade has them at No. 5 and FPI at No. 10.


16. LSU Tigers (Rating: 129.0)

LSU's embarrassing loss at Mississippi State saw the Tigers take a huge drop in the rankings, as they were No. 6 last week. This is one team that was higher in the Vegas rankings than in my main set. Westgate still has LSU at No. 11.


17. TCU Horned Frogs (Rating: 128.6)

TCU passed its first big test by going on the road and beating Arkansas by 21. The Horned Frogs have another big one this week at Oklahoma State. Westgate has them at No. 16.


18. Virginia Tech Hokies (Rating: 128.4)

The Hokies beat West Virginia and as the Mountaineers kept winning big, that helped Virginia Tech move up in the rankings. Westgate has them at No. 15.


19. Oregon Ducks (Rating: 128.4)

The Ducks' blowout of Wyoming led Westgate to move them up from No. 25. FPI has them at No. 15.


20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Rating: 128.3)

The Irish are only No. 25 at Westgate, but that big fourth quarter versus Boston College moved them up a little.


21. Florida Gators (Rating: 126.3)

The Gators might get their suspended players back soon. If they do, you can expect a climb up the rankings, assuming they beat Kentucky this week.


22. Kansas State Wildcats (Rating: 126.0)




Despite last week's loss, the Wildcats remain in the top 25 at Westgate, but did drop to No. 28 in the FPI.


23. Texas Longhorns (Rating: 124.8)

The Longhorns were in the top 25 at the start of the season but fell out after their loss to Maryland. After taking USC to overtime on the road, Texas is back in.


24. Washington State Cougars (Rating: 124.3)

Coach Mike Leach has avoided the early-season upsets the Cougars usually suffer. Westgate has them at No. 27.


25. Louisville Cardinals (Rating: 124.2)

The Cardinals drop from No. 18 to almost out of the top 25 with that blowout home loss to Clemson. Westgate has them at No. 21 and FPI at No. 22.
 

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