9 road favs? How many do you think will cover?

chonce · Sep 20, 2017

The whole damn card practically: STL, CLE (What?), Den, Pitt, ATL, Dall, MIA, KC, OAK.

I think Indy, Chi, Buffalo and NYJ seem the best at a glance.

The best looking road favs look like KC, maybe OAK, but this is a tricky week.

I am not counting B-More as a road fav, despite this being a "home game," for Jax.

PeePee · Sep 20, 2017

SL, Cle, Chi have no business to be road fav over anyone...but Jets just so bad

halekulani · Sep 20, 2017

chi is home vs pitt

chonce · Sep 20, 2017

halekulani said:
chi is home vs pitt

Yes, I meant to convey that. Sorry if it wasn't' clear.

Loves2kickass · Sep 21, 2017

Its going to be a dog week and public burial.

exploited17 · Sep 21, 2017

chonce said:
The whole damn card practically: STL, CLE (What?), Den, Pitt, ATL, Dall, MIA, KC, OAK.

I think Indy, Chi, Buffalo and NYJ seem the best at a glance.

The best looking road favs look like KC, maybe OAK, but this is a tricky week.

I am not counting B-More as a road fav, despite this being a "home game," for Jax.

I don't like this. The key is which one to bet. Or just bet all of them. Either that or isolate the one big play and bet alot on it. What is the best strategy? Not sure. I lean toward 49ers......Buffalo......SD and Detroit. Don't know how Cleveland could be a road favorite

exploited17 · Sep 21, 2017

exploited17 said:
I don't like this. The key is which one to bet. Or just bet all of them. Either that or isolate the one big play and bet alot on it. What is the best strategy? Not sure. I lean toward 49ers......Buffalo......SD and Detroit. Don't know how Cleveland could be a road favorite

I meant take the home dogs

METFAN · Sep 21, 2017

Loves2kickass said:
Its going to be a dog week and public burial.

AGREED!!!!!!!

I would say Miami and probably KC

powerz · Sep 21, 2017

I think Clev being a road Fav is very telling - The odds maker knew what he is doing he wanted to get 55% on Indy and he has achieved that....now I see the line has ticked up .5 point on the browns.

Browns lost to 2 division rivals and Indy lost to two weak nfc teams

Would not bet this game or put it in my contest plays but if you are in a spread pool that goes ATS like me - take the browns

Serbone · Sep 21, 2017

I understand but you cannot think that way, that there are 9 VF / home dogs... you have to handicap each game individually on it's own merits.

Opening day the early games, dogs won almost every one. Late games, favorite.

Other than over/unders where refs might be looking at "points of emphasis" that increases or decreases the offense, you have to look at each game.

And the word "TRAP" is overused, all the time, when you have a visiting favorite / home dog.

chonce · Sep 21, 2017

Serbone said:
I understand but you cannot think that way, that there are 9 VF / home dogs... you have to handicap each game individually on it's own merits.

Opening day the early games, dogs won almost every one. Late games, favorite.

Other than over/unders where refs might be looking at "points of emphasis" that increases or decreases the offense, you have to look at each game.

And the word "TRAP" is overused, all the time, when you have a visiting favorite / home dog.

I agree. I wouldn't suggest blindly betting on every home dog. Nor would I rule out playing a road fav. My biggest bet last week was Tenn -1.5. It is just an interesting card. If i had to guess I would suggest that home dogs cover more than they don't, but still need to cap to decide which ones to play, if any.

Serbone · Sep 21, 2017

chonce said:
I agree. I wouldn't suggest blindly betting on every home dog. Nor would I rule out playing a road fav. My biggest bet last week was Tenn -1.5. It is just an interesting card. If i had to guess I would suggest that home dogs cover more than they don't, but still need to cap to decide which ones to play, if any.

Excellent, yes. And I know you are a top notch handicapper.

I did not mean to imply that you would suggest that... I was talking to everybody, that in general, you cannot let that bother you.

I think 50-60 yrs ago Vegas was able to REALLY trap bettors with visiting favorites, the home dog winning a lot, but in this day and age there is so much information out there that there is no merit to look at games with visiting favorites as traps, and that you can not look at short term trends other than the referee adjustments each year to rules that can affect overs and unders.

I had Tennessee, too! Much better offensive line, much better QB, Jax was lucky the week before...

Good luck, all!

busterhyman · Sep 21, 2017

i count 10 road favs

9 road favs? How many do you think will cover?

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