How to bet L.A. Rams-San Francisco
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/21/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Los Angeles -2.5
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent on Los Angeles
Rynning: The Rams were disappointing last week, especially their run defense ; the Redskins compiled 229 yards on the ground. This is concerning facing Carlos Hyde on Thursday night, who has been the lone bright spot on offense. Of course, the 49ers have yet to score a touchdown in two games, but they've faced tough defenses in Seattle and Carolina with a solid opportunity to move forward on Thursday night. There's no value to me here.
ATS pick: Pass
Steele: San Francisco has yet to score a touchdown this year, but is happy to see the Rams here. Hyde ran for 127 yards last week versus Seattle, while Los Angeles allowed 229 yards rushing (on 5.9 yards per carry) in their most recent contest versus Washington. With defensive tackle Aaron Donald back for a second week, I expect improvement from that rush defense. San Francisco outgained the Rams by 135 and 146 yards in the two meetings last year, but this a new season. I feel that the Rams are the stronger team on both sides of the ball, but not enough to back them as a short road favorite.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The Rams have been by far the flashier, more surprising team this year. Thanks to a weak schedule to start the season (Colts and Redskins) the Rams' offense ranks fourth in red zone efficiency and seventh in passing efficiency. The opposite is true for the 49ers' offense, which ranks 30th in the red zone and in passing efficiency, but they have faced two brutal defenses (Seahawks and Panthers). I think the 49ers offense (31st in yards per point and yards per pass) could look better than it has in prior weeks but it won't be easy considering the inherent limitations from a game plan perspective on a short week.
ATS pick: Pass
Prop bets
75.5 rushing yards by Todd Gurley (O/U -110)
Parolin: The San Francisco defense has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards so far this season, an average of 123.5 yards per game. The volume is there, but is this actually a bad rush defense? The 49ers have allowed only 3.3 yards per rush (12th best), and ranked in the top half of the league in both yards before and after contact per rush. The problem for the 49ers rush defense is more game script than defensive quality.
San Francisco's defense has been on the field for 142 plays this year, one behind the Chiefs for second most in the league. While Kansas City faced the Patriots and Eagles for their 143, the Niners saw the Panthers and Seahawks -- two offenses (and quarterbacks) that haven't found their footing yet this season. Even worse is the 88 plays the Niners defense was on the field for while trailing, (also second most in the league) and snaps that accounted for 161 of their 247 yards. There may be a point in time where Jared Goff can put up enough points to let Gurley loose in the kind of high-volume setting he might need to hit the over against San Francisco. Thursday Night Football just doesn't feel like the right setting.
The play: Under
215.5 passing yards by Brian Hoyer (O/U -110)
Parolin: In the QB-starved NFL, a quarterback on the open market who nets less than $10 million in guaranteed money is expected to do what Hoyer has done so far. Hehas thrown for 292 yards this season, a total equaled or passed by a quarterback in 14 individual games this season. Hoyer has a pair of picks and no touchdowns, averaging a paltry 4.7 yards per attempt. The Seahawks and Panthers are legitimately quality defenses, but the Rams are on that level. Los Angeles has allowed 6.8 yards per attempt since the start of last year, 10th in the league, and their 224.3 yards per game average is ninth.
Even splitting the difference between Hoyer's abysmal 4.7 and the Rams defense's respectable 6.8 puts a workable average at 5.75 yards per attempt. That's 38 pass attempts Hoyer needs to throw to hit 216 yards after he's averaged 31 attempts per game in two losses this season. He's hit 38 passes in only 12 of 33 career starts. This is a small total, but the Rams will be no letdown from the defenses Hoyer has faced so far. It could be a long season in San Francisco.
The play: Under
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/21/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Los Angeles -2.5
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent on Los Angeles
Rynning: The Rams were disappointing last week, especially their run defense ; the Redskins compiled 229 yards on the ground. This is concerning facing Carlos Hyde on Thursday night, who has been the lone bright spot on offense. Of course, the 49ers have yet to score a touchdown in two games, but they've faced tough defenses in Seattle and Carolina with a solid opportunity to move forward on Thursday night. There's no value to me here.
ATS pick: Pass
Steele: San Francisco has yet to score a touchdown this year, but is happy to see the Rams here. Hyde ran for 127 yards last week versus Seattle, while Los Angeles allowed 229 yards rushing (on 5.9 yards per carry) in their most recent contest versus Washington. With defensive tackle Aaron Donald back for a second week, I expect improvement from that rush defense. San Francisco outgained the Rams by 135 and 146 yards in the two meetings last year, but this a new season. I feel that the Rams are the stronger team on both sides of the ball, but not enough to back them as a short road favorite.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The Rams have been by far the flashier, more surprising team this year. Thanks to a weak schedule to start the season (Colts and Redskins) the Rams' offense ranks fourth in red zone efficiency and seventh in passing efficiency. The opposite is true for the 49ers' offense, which ranks 30th in the red zone and in passing efficiency, but they have faced two brutal defenses (Seahawks and Panthers). I think the 49ers offense (31st in yards per point and yards per pass) could look better than it has in prior weeks but it won't be easy considering the inherent limitations from a game plan perspective on a short week.
ATS pick: Pass
Prop bets
75.5 rushing yards by Todd Gurley (O/U -110)
Parolin: The San Francisco defense has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards so far this season, an average of 123.5 yards per game. The volume is there, but is this actually a bad rush defense? The 49ers have allowed only 3.3 yards per rush (12th best), and ranked in the top half of the league in both yards before and after contact per rush. The problem for the 49ers rush defense is more game script than defensive quality.
San Francisco's defense has been on the field for 142 plays this year, one behind the Chiefs for second most in the league. While Kansas City faced the Patriots and Eagles for their 143, the Niners saw the Panthers and Seahawks -- two offenses (and quarterbacks) that haven't found their footing yet this season. Even worse is the 88 plays the Niners defense was on the field for while trailing, (also second most in the league) and snaps that accounted for 161 of their 247 yards. There may be a point in time where Jared Goff can put up enough points to let Gurley loose in the kind of high-volume setting he might need to hit the over against San Francisco. Thursday Night Football just doesn't feel like the right setting.
The play: Under
215.5 passing yards by Brian Hoyer (O/U -110)
Parolin: In the QB-starved NFL, a quarterback on the open market who nets less than $10 million in guaranteed money is expected to do what Hoyer has done so far. Hehas thrown for 292 yards this season, a total equaled or passed by a quarterback in 14 individual games this season. Hoyer has a pair of picks and no touchdowns, averaging a paltry 4.7 yards per attempt. The Seahawks and Panthers are legitimately quality defenses, but the Rams are on that level. Los Angeles has allowed 6.8 yards per attempt since the start of last year, 10th in the league, and their 224.3 yards per game average is ninth.
Even splitting the difference between Hoyer's abysmal 4.7 and the Rams defense's respectable 6.8 puts a workable average at 5.75 yards per attempt. That's 38 pass attempts Hoyer needs to throw to hit 216 yards after he's averaged 31 attempts per game in two losses this season. He's hit 38 passes in only 12 of 33 career starts. This is a small total, but the Rams will be no letdown from the defenses Hoyer has faced so far. It could be a long season in San Francisco.
The play: Under
