Having an "on fire" kind of day so far so thought I would post my night picks. Having a horrible first couple of weeks, sat out Week 3, will post updated overall record after tonight or tomorrow's game.
Saturday, September 23
Charlotte 49ers -1.5 (10 Units)
Very low profile game on the schedule tonight and I love it. In 2015 the 49ers opened their season with a win at Georgia State as a +7 point underdog. Both teams are 0 for the season on the SU line and on the ATS line. Someone has to win and someone has to cover. Charlotte running game = 180.7 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry against a Georgia State defense allowing 202 rushing yards per game on 6.1 yards per carry. Overall the 49ers have a much more effective offense, they can control the tempo of the game and they are more effective in the red zone.
Charlotte 34, Georgia State 26
Florida Atlantic Owls +2 (10 Units)
Lane Kiffin and his squad in a winnable game? I'll take it. Since getting crushed in the opener against Navy, Kiffin and his boys are 2-0 ATS against Wisconsin and Bethune-Cookman (45-0 win as a -14 point favorite last week). Buffalo has the better overall defense but that's about it. Forget the Kiffin era but the Owls have covered the spread in 23 of their last 33 road games and Buffalo, who are coming off a 33-10 win over Colgate (lost the ATS as -23.5 point fav) are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up win. The Owls have the #11 pass defense in the Nation and have the ability to run the ball and control the clock. Buffalo's passing game is only 93rd in the Nation and they've struggled to scoring points all year. Owls steal one in upstate New York for their first non 1-3 start in forever.
Florida Atlantic 27, Buffalo 16
Bowling Green Falcons +7 (10 Units)
Hmmmm, what a line huh? Looks almost too good to be true but I was honestly willing to take Bowling Green from anything between +3 and +13 and I got a decent line to be honest. The public doesn't see it that way. I'm well aware that Bowling Green is 0-3 ATS this year and that also means they have not won a football game (0-3 SU) but Middle Tennesse is 1-2 SU and only 1-2 ATS. The Falcons love turf. They play on turf at home and they love turf (8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on turf). Middle Tennessee State is only 1-4 ATS in their last five MAC Conference games. This is a close game. I think Bowling Green remembers getting blown out by 20 at home last year and I think they can keep this close. Call me crazy but I'm a lone ranger here.
Bowling Green 44, Middle Tennessee State 43
Florida International Panthers +2 (10 Units)
I love betting on teams who have yet to cover a spread on the season and the Panthers fit the bill. They lost to UCF in their opener and then beat Alcorn State but lost on the spread. They are coming off a bye week since their game against Indiana was postponed last weekend and this team will be ready. I think this is a Bowl team and it's only a matter of time before they start playing like it. Rice got destroyed by Stanford in their opener in Australia, they looked good against a horrible UTEP team a few weekend ago but then got their asses handed to them by Houston last weekend. 1-2 ATS to start the year. This is Conference play now for FIU, everything changes. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four conference games and I think they take this one. Both teams have a lot of returning players from 2016 but FIU just has more talent.
Florida International 28, Rice 21
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (10 Units)
I saved the best for last. The Irish are starting to pick up some serious steam and some big time confidence after their shellacking of Boston College last weekend. It took a while to get going but they got it done. The Spartans have impressed according to a lot of people but they have played against Western Michigan and Bowling Green and won both and covered both. Two MAC Conference opponents. Notre Dame have put up 49+ points in two of their three games this season and prior to last year's home loss to Michigan State, they had won three straight in this series. THE ROAD TEAM IS 13-3-1 ATS IN THE LAST 17 MEETINGS OF THIS SERIES!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME? The Irish are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in East Lansing. The Irish have the #5 rushing attack in college football so far this season and they are ranked 22nd in total yards gained. Having said that, Michigan State has one of the best ranked defenses in college football this season but they have not been tested. They are returning only 4 starters from 2016 and lost 3 of their top 5 tacklers from a year ago. This is not the same team. Irish defy the odds and win this one by 10.
Notre Dame 24, Michigan State 14
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!
:toast:
Saturday, September 23
Charlotte 49ers -1.5 (10 Units)
Very low profile game on the schedule tonight and I love it. In 2015 the 49ers opened their season with a win at Georgia State as a +7 point underdog. Both teams are 0 for the season on the SU line and on the ATS line. Someone has to win and someone has to cover. Charlotte running game = 180.7 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry against a Georgia State defense allowing 202 rushing yards per game on 6.1 yards per carry. Overall the 49ers have a much more effective offense, they can control the tempo of the game and they are more effective in the red zone.
Charlotte 34, Georgia State 26
Florida Atlantic Owls +2 (10 Units)
Lane Kiffin and his squad in a winnable game? I'll take it. Since getting crushed in the opener against Navy, Kiffin and his boys are 2-0 ATS against Wisconsin and Bethune-Cookman (45-0 win as a -14 point favorite last week). Buffalo has the better overall defense but that's about it. Forget the Kiffin era but the Owls have covered the spread in 23 of their last 33 road games and Buffalo, who are coming off a 33-10 win over Colgate (lost the ATS as -23.5 point fav) are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up win. The Owls have the #11 pass defense in the Nation and have the ability to run the ball and control the clock. Buffalo's passing game is only 93rd in the Nation and they've struggled to scoring points all year. Owls steal one in upstate New York for their first non 1-3 start in forever.
Florida Atlantic 27, Buffalo 16
Bowling Green Falcons +7 (10 Units)
Hmmmm, what a line huh? Looks almost too good to be true but I was honestly willing to take Bowling Green from anything between +3 and +13 and I got a decent line to be honest. The public doesn't see it that way. I'm well aware that Bowling Green is 0-3 ATS this year and that also means they have not won a football game (0-3 SU) but Middle Tennesse is 1-2 SU and only 1-2 ATS. The Falcons love turf. They play on turf at home and they love turf (8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on turf). Middle Tennessee State is only 1-4 ATS in their last five MAC Conference games. This is a close game. I think Bowling Green remembers getting blown out by 20 at home last year and I think they can keep this close. Call me crazy but I'm a lone ranger here.
Bowling Green 44, Middle Tennessee State 43
Florida International Panthers +2 (10 Units)
I love betting on teams who have yet to cover a spread on the season and the Panthers fit the bill. They lost to UCF in their opener and then beat Alcorn State but lost on the spread. They are coming off a bye week since their game against Indiana was postponed last weekend and this team will be ready. I think this is a Bowl team and it's only a matter of time before they start playing like it. Rice got destroyed by Stanford in their opener in Australia, they looked good against a horrible UTEP team a few weekend ago but then got their asses handed to them by Houston last weekend. 1-2 ATS to start the year. This is Conference play now for FIU, everything changes. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four conference games and I think they take this one. Both teams have a lot of returning players from 2016 but FIU just has more talent.
Florida International 28, Rice 21
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (10 Units)
I saved the best for last. The Irish are starting to pick up some serious steam and some big time confidence after their shellacking of Boston College last weekend. It took a while to get going but they got it done. The Spartans have impressed according to a lot of people but they have played against Western Michigan and Bowling Green and won both and covered both. Two MAC Conference opponents. Notre Dame have put up 49+ points in two of their three games this season and prior to last year's home loss to Michigan State, they had won three straight in this series. THE ROAD TEAM IS 13-3-1 ATS IN THE LAST 17 MEETINGS OF THIS SERIES!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME? The Irish are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in East Lansing. The Irish have the #5 rushing attack in college football so far this season and they are ranked 22nd in total yards gained. Having said that, Michigan State has one of the best ranked defenses in college football this season but they have not been tested. They are returning only 4 starters from 2016 and lost 3 of their top 5 tacklers from a year ago. This is not the same team. Irish defy the odds and win this one by 10.
Notre Dame 24, Michigan State 14
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!
:toast:
