Best bets on Week 3 NFL games
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/23/17
It's Week 3 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Mike Clay and Erin Rynning) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Baltimore
Steele: Baltimore is coming off a pair of divisional wins and making its first trip to London. The Jaguars head to England for a fifth straight year, having won the last two. Jacksonville beat Baltimore in 2015, and the Ravens needed a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left to win by two last year (Baltimore had yardage edges of 139 and 67 yards in those matchups). Joe Flacco completed just 9 of 17 passes for 111 yards in the season opener after missing the preseason, but improved to 25-of-34 passing for 201 yards a week ago. Talent-wise, I like the Jaguars' chances here but will stay clear of a prediction, as the Ravens' defense has forced 10 turnovers in two games and Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has 36 interceptions over the past three years.
ATS pick: Pass
Rynning: After finishing 28th in rushing a season ago, the Ravens aimed to make amends in the ground game by hiring offensive assistant Greg Roman. The plan this season for the Ravens is to focus on running the football and win with their suffocating defense. So far, so good, as the Ravens are 2-0. But they did suffer a crucial blow on offense, losing the services of All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda for the season last week. The Jaguars feature a similar plan, which worked well in a Week 1 victory over the Houston Texans. Of course, the passing game is well below average with Bortles and the loss of receiver Allen Robinson.
Pick: Under 39.5
Sharp: The loss of Yanda is a big factor for a team facing the Jaguars defense. Though the Jacksonville pass rush had only one sack last week, that happened in large part because the Titans and their exceedingly strong run game took over -- Tennessee ran on 65 percent of early-down plays. The Ravens aren't close to the Titans' efficiency in the run game, especially without Yanda. This contest comes down to whether the Jaguars offense (No. 5 in NFL rushing success rate) can run on the Ravens defense (No. 7 in rushing success rate against). If they can, Jacksonville can limit Bortles' involvement, which is ideal.
Lean: Jaguars
Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 20, Jacksonville 17
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX +4, 39
Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Denver
Steele: Last week, the Bills had a 12-1 first-down deficit against the Panthers but somehow trailed only 6-0 at halftime. Now they are back at home and catch the Broncos, who are coming off a dominating win over Dallas at home. Buffalo is allowing just 235 yards per game, and Denver -- despite losing defensive coordinator Wade Phillips during the offseason -- is yielding just 259 yards per game. I have a slight lean with the home 'dog, but the under looks like the best play.
ATS pick: Under 40.5
Sharp: It would be hard to find a team that has exceeded its preseason expectations more than the Broncos. Last week's dismantling of the Cowboys may have surprised much of the public, but not us -- we predicted Denver would have a lot of success, particularly when passing. This week's matchup comes down to one element: Can the Bills run the ball on this Broncos defense?
Buffalo ranks 16th in rushing efficiency and struggled tremendously at Carolina last week, recording a 22 percent success rank. If LeSean McCoy can get it going on the ground at home, the Bills certainly can keep this close. But Denver has exceeded expectations so far with its run defense.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Denver 22, Buffalo 19
The pick: Over 40.5
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent New Orleans
Steele: Dating back to the Tampa Bay game in December of 2015, the Saints are a solid 8-2-1 ATS on the road but did lose to the Vikings by 10 this season. Carolina had a 12-1 first-down edge in the first half last week versus Buffalo. Panthers QB Cam Newton was hobbled and lost his best receiver in Greg Olsen during the game (an overthrown touchdown pass from the 2-yard line at the end cost Carolina the cover). The defensive edge here is massive. Carolina is allowing 197 yards per game and has surrendered just two field goals so far this season. The Saints are yielding 513 yards per game, and I like the Panthers here.
ATS pick: Carolina
Sharp: Early-season statistics need to be treated with caution and with heavy consideration toward strength of schedule. This Panthers defense has looked absolutely superb but has faced only the 49ers and Bills offenses -- the Saints can throw a lot more at a defense than both of those teams combined. However, the Saints have struggled in Carolina and may be playing without both starting tackles. Additionally, the New Orleans defense is one of the worst in the league (No. 31 in efficiency), which should help mitigate the loss of Greg Olsen for Carolina's offense.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 26, New Orleans 24
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO +6, 48
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Pittsburgh
Steele: The Bears delivered for me in the opener as seven-point home 'dogs versus Atlanta while nearly winning the game outright. Last week, I liked the Bears again, but they had three turnovers and a missed field goal. They surprisingly trailed 26-0 at the half despite being outgained by only a 149-121 margin. Last season, Pittsburgh averaged 373 yards per game on offense, but with running back Le'Veon Bell just working himself back into shape, the Steelers have only 313 yards per game in 2017. The defense has registered nine sacks and allowed just 237 yards per game, but that was against the Browns and a Vikings team missing Sam Bradford. Since 2012, the Steelers have had 41 games away from home and only 10 times have they won by more than seven points. The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS as a home 'dog the past two years, but with the Bears getting more than a touchdown, I like them here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Last week, the Buccaneers were easily able to diagnose the limited offense of the Bears, holding Chicago to just 1.3 yards per carry and one first down rushing for the entire game. That forced the Bears into the pass-heavy scheme that ultimately became Mike Glennon's undoing, as he threw two interceptions, including a pick-six in a 29-7 blowout. But don't let the final score fool you. The Bucs averaged only 4.6 yards per play, and 21 of their points came off the INT return and fumble recoveries that set up Tampa at the Bears' 13 and 35.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Pittsburgh 25, Chicago 20
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI +7.5, 45.5
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Detroit Lions
Total: 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Atlanta
Steele: The Super Bowl hangover has not kicked in yet, as Atlanta is 2-0. In the opener, a weaker Chicago team did have a first-and-goal at the Atlanta 5-yard line trailing by six, but could not score on four consecutive plays. Atlanta has an improved defense this year and possesses the stronger run game. Detroit is on a short week, but the Lions are on a 10-3 straight-up run at Ford Field. Atlanta is the stronger team but is coming off an A-plus effort versus Green Bay in the new stadium opener. I will pass in this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 27, Detroit 25
The pick: Detroit and the over -- DET +3, 49
Sharp: Detroit's offense has faced the stingy defenses of the Cardinals and Giants, and now the Lions get to tangle at home with a Falcons defense that will likely be without a couple of valuable starters. I have been extremely impressed with Matthew Stafford and this passing offense against the Lions' difficult schedule. While Atlanta has been vastly superior on early downs this year, I expect much of that was schedule-related. I'm projecting the Lions offense to be able to methodically drive against the Falcons.
Pick: Lions +3
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Indianapolis
Steele: The Browns just took on a pair of probable playoff teams in the Steelers and Ravens but have been outgained by just 2 yards per game. Indianapolis is a different team without quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts took on two probable non-playoff teams in the Rams and Cardinals and were outgained by 136 yards per game. With Luck out again, the Browns are the stronger team, but they have been an away favorite just once in the past five years and lost that game 24-6 to Jacksonville (2014). Cleveland is 1-17 straight-up since the start of 2016 and has not won on the road since beating Baltimore in October of 2015. The Colts have allowed eight sacks in 2017, but the Browns' offensive line hasn't fared any better by giving up 10. There are questions on both sides, but I will call for the Browns to grab a rare win.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: This is a battle of the two least efficient teams in the NFL this year, but the journey for the Browns offense toward that standing has been more difficult than for the Colts. Cleveland has tangled with the Steelers and the Ravens, which sport the No. 6 and No. 1 defenses, respectively, in the league and the No. 8 and No. 1 pass defenses. Now the Browns get to face a Colts defense that ranks 27th in defensive pass efficiency despite only tangling with the Rams' Jared Goff and the Cardinals' Carson Palmer. I'm extremely eager to see how Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer looks in this game.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Cleveland 23, Indianapolis 21
The pick: Over 40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (No line)
Total: TBA
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Tampa Bay
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14)
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 80 percent New England
Steele: The Patriots have owned the Texans with wins by 21 points in 2015, 27 in the 2016 regular season and by a 34-16 score in last season's playoffs. The second game came without Tom Brady and as a home 'dog. Houston is struggling on the offensive line and has a rookie quarterback under center versus a Bill Belichick defense. I expect a great effort from the Patriots and will lean with them here.
ATS pick: New England
Sharp: This is an extremely difficult game to peg at this time, given that the Patriots are extremely beat up and we don't know exactly who will play. The lone hope for the Texans to keep this close is to keep their run game going. The Patriots defense ranks No. 31 in defensive efficiency against the run but held the Saints to just 2.8 yards per carry in the first half last week and forced them to go to a pass-heavy offense as they trailed 20-3 after one quarter. If the Texans cannot run the ball, it's hard to envision Deshaun Watson putting up enough to keep this within the spread.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: New England 27, Houston 18
The pick: Houston and the over --- HOU +13, 43.5
Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Miami
Steele: The Dolphins trailed for the majority of the game last week against the Chargers but kicked a 54-yard field goal with 1:05 remaining. They held on following a missed Los Angeles field goal in the final seconds. Miami's best matchup here is running back Jay Ajayi versus a Jets rush defense that allows 185 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. The Jets have the weakest roster in the NFL and are 0-2, being outgained by 167 yards per game. With Miami headed to London next, I do not like either side here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The Jets defense currently ranks No. 32 in red zone efficiency, No. 31 on third down and No. 30 in my custom analytic that tracks rates of drives where a team starts with the ball inside its own 30 and marches the length of a field for a TD. The Jets' issues start with the pass rush, where they currently rank 30th, and that helps impact their poor pass defense, which ranks No. 29. Meanwhile, the Dolphins allowed 72 percent of early-down passes to be successful in their one game, the worst rate in the league. If neither pass rush is able to get home consistently, it will be hard for either defense to keep the points scored down.
Play: Over 42.5
Clay:
Prediction: Miami 25, New York Jets 17
The pick: Miami and the Over -- MIA -6, 41.5
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: N/A
Steele: Normally when I throw the Giants in the trash, they jump up and play to their talent level. I had the Giants as a top-10 team at the start of the season, but they have looked well below average thus far. The offensive line has allowed eight sacks, and the Giants are averaging just 252 yards per game. I am officially throwing them in the trash. The Eagles opened last season 4-0 straight-up and ATS at home, beating teams like the Steelers, Vikings and Falcons by 18 points per game. Philadelphia has won its past three home games versus New York by 17 points per game. The Eagles have outgained Washington and Kansas City by 77 yards per game on the road, and should dominate in their home opener.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Sharp: The Eagles' front seven is one of the best in the NFL. The Eagles recorded four sacks of the Chiefs' Alex Smith last week at Arrowhead, holding him to one TD and just two passes all day that went for 20-plus yards. However, the Eagles' weakness is their secondary, so the Chiefs uncharacteristically went 63 percent pass and were able to be efficient with their completions. The lone hope for the Giants in this game is a quick-release, short-passing offense. This is in their repertoire, but we haven't see them execute it this season.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 21, New York Giants 17
The pick: New York Giants and the under -- NYG +6, 43
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Seattle
Steele: It took Pete Carroll three years to get the Seahawks to being a playoff/Super Bowl-caliber team. Since 2012, the Seahawks are 10-3-3 as a 'dog. I thought Tennessee would beat Oakland in the opener, but the Titans struggled in a 10-point defeat. Seattle is averaging just 269 yards per game but had just 15 points in its first two games last season before exploding for 30 points per game over the next three. I will gladly take Seattle as a 'dog.
ATS pick: Seattle
Rynning: This will be a firm step up in class for this Titans club -- especially offensively, matched up against the top-notch Seahawks defense. Compounding matters for the Titans will be the loss of wide receiver Corey Davis and the highly questionable status of running back DeMarco Murray. The Seahawks' offense should perk up against a still-below-average Titans defense, which is allowing 5.4 yards per play.
Pick: Seattle
Sharp: The most intriguing matchup of the week comes when Marcus Mariota, the much-ballyhooed young QB, meets up with the stingy pass defense of the Seahawks (No. 7 in the NFL). Last week, the Titans went back to the run-heavy approach and dominated the Jaguars on the ground, racking up 179 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry in a 37-16 win. Don't let the final score fool you, however, as Mariota was extremely inefficient (56 percent on completions, 78.5 rating). This is a continuation of a trend that saw Mariota post a subpar preseason and a below-average performance in Week 1. With the Seahawks offensive line struggling and Mariota's performance dipping, I expect this result to come down to an old-school factor of whoever runs the ball the best and avoids the most negative plays.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 22, Seattle 21
The pick: SEA +3
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Green Bay
Steele: Since 2014, the Packers are just 11-10-1 ATS coming off a loss. Entering the season, I had the Bengals as a playoff contender with their main weakness being the offensive line. Their offense has been virtually nonexistent thus far, as they've mustered just nine points and have yet to reach the end zone. The Packers' defensive performance in Week 1 at home against the Seahawks, when they surrendered just nine points and had their own offensive line issues (injuries to Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, Jahri Evans and Jason Spriggs), have me leaning with the under here.
ATS pick: Under 44.5
Erin Rynning's take: No question the Bengals' offense is bordering on horrendous in 2017. However, just two games in, this offense has reason to move forward on Sunday. Looking for a spark, Cincinnati fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and has Bill Lazor stepping in. With a couple of extra days to prep, look for the needed adjustments to pay off.
Note: The Bengals have played two of the NFL's best defensive units in the early going (Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens). The Packers' defense will provide a definite step down in class; linebacker Nick Perry is expected to be out and defensive end Mike Daniels is very questionable, softening Green Bay's front seven.
Pick: Over 46
Sharp: With Zampese out and Lazor in at offensive coordinator, the arrow is pointing up for the Bengals offense. The question is, at what angle? Lazor's goal is to get the ball out faster and prevent the negative plays that have plagued the Bengals this season. It's only Week 3, but the Packers are extremely beat up on both sides of the ball. If the Cincinnati offense can perform even a little bit better, the trickle-down effect will help its defense and overall field position.
Lean: Bengals +9
Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 26, Cincinnati 21
The pick: Cincinnati and the over --- CIN +9, 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent Kansas City
Steele: The Chiefs have won six in a row in this series and could have a decent crowd in this small venue like the Dolphins did a week ago. Kansas City has been the most impressive team in the NFL the first two weeks, including that 42-27 win at New England. Last year, it was a bunch of near misses for the Chargers in San Diego; now in Los Angeles, it is more of the same, with the team two missed field goals away from possibly being undefeated. The Chiefs have played the tougher schedule and boast an improved offense featuring rookie running back Kareem Hunt. The Chargers are on an 0-6-1 ATS run and drop another one against the spread this week.
ATS pick: Kansas City
Sharp: Given the Chargers' history, it's likely for this game to be decided by a single score, placing inherent value on the home underdog. That said, the two biggest impediments for the Chargers are their run game and their third-down performance. Melvin Gordon ranks 48th out of 50 rushers in success rate (26 percent) and is averaging 2.5 yards per carry (worst in the NFL for rushers with at least 17 attempts). Additionally, the Chargers offense ranks No. 30 in third-down conversion rate. So, while L.A. has been great in bypassing third down, if forced into it, the Bolts are rarely successful. I'll still lean Chargers, but they will need a lot more from Gordon.
Lean: Chargers +3
Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 22, Kansas City 21
The pick: Los Angeles and the under -- LAC +3, 46
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/23/17
It's Week 3 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Mike Clay and Erin Rynning) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Baltimore
Steele: Baltimore is coming off a pair of divisional wins and making its first trip to London. The Jaguars head to England for a fifth straight year, having won the last two. Jacksonville beat Baltimore in 2015, and the Ravens needed a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left to win by two last year (Baltimore had yardage edges of 139 and 67 yards in those matchups). Joe Flacco completed just 9 of 17 passes for 111 yards in the season opener after missing the preseason, but improved to 25-of-34 passing for 201 yards a week ago. Talent-wise, I like the Jaguars' chances here but will stay clear of a prediction, as the Ravens' defense has forced 10 turnovers in two games and Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has 36 interceptions over the past three years.
ATS pick: Pass
Rynning: After finishing 28th in rushing a season ago, the Ravens aimed to make amends in the ground game by hiring offensive assistant Greg Roman. The plan this season for the Ravens is to focus on running the football and win with their suffocating defense. So far, so good, as the Ravens are 2-0. But they did suffer a crucial blow on offense, losing the services of All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda for the season last week. The Jaguars feature a similar plan, which worked well in a Week 1 victory over the Houston Texans. Of course, the passing game is well below average with Bortles and the loss of receiver Allen Robinson.
Pick: Under 39.5
Sharp: The loss of Yanda is a big factor for a team facing the Jaguars defense. Though the Jacksonville pass rush had only one sack last week, that happened in large part because the Titans and their exceedingly strong run game took over -- Tennessee ran on 65 percent of early-down plays. The Ravens aren't close to the Titans' efficiency in the run game, especially without Yanda. This contest comes down to whether the Jaguars offense (No. 5 in NFL rushing success rate) can run on the Ravens defense (No. 7 in rushing success rate against). If they can, Jacksonville can limit Bortles' involvement, which is ideal.
Lean: Jaguars
Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 20, Jacksonville 17
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX +4, 39
Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Denver
Steele: Last week, the Bills had a 12-1 first-down deficit against the Panthers but somehow trailed only 6-0 at halftime. Now they are back at home and catch the Broncos, who are coming off a dominating win over Dallas at home. Buffalo is allowing just 235 yards per game, and Denver -- despite losing defensive coordinator Wade Phillips during the offseason -- is yielding just 259 yards per game. I have a slight lean with the home 'dog, but the under looks like the best play.
ATS pick: Under 40.5
Sharp: It would be hard to find a team that has exceeded its preseason expectations more than the Broncos. Last week's dismantling of the Cowboys may have surprised much of the public, but not us -- we predicted Denver would have a lot of success, particularly when passing. This week's matchup comes down to one element: Can the Bills run the ball on this Broncos defense?
Buffalo ranks 16th in rushing efficiency and struggled tremendously at Carolina last week, recording a 22 percent success rank. If LeSean McCoy can get it going on the ground at home, the Bills certainly can keep this close. But Denver has exceeded expectations so far with its run defense.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Denver 22, Buffalo 19
The pick: Over 40.5
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent New Orleans
Steele: Dating back to the Tampa Bay game in December of 2015, the Saints are a solid 8-2-1 ATS on the road but did lose to the Vikings by 10 this season. Carolina had a 12-1 first-down edge in the first half last week versus Buffalo. Panthers QB Cam Newton was hobbled and lost his best receiver in Greg Olsen during the game (an overthrown touchdown pass from the 2-yard line at the end cost Carolina the cover). The defensive edge here is massive. Carolina is allowing 197 yards per game and has surrendered just two field goals so far this season. The Saints are yielding 513 yards per game, and I like the Panthers here.
ATS pick: Carolina
Sharp: Early-season statistics need to be treated with caution and with heavy consideration toward strength of schedule. This Panthers defense has looked absolutely superb but has faced only the 49ers and Bills offenses -- the Saints can throw a lot more at a defense than both of those teams combined. However, the Saints have struggled in Carolina and may be playing without both starting tackles. Additionally, the New Orleans defense is one of the worst in the league (No. 31 in efficiency), which should help mitigate the loss of Greg Olsen for Carolina's offense.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 26, New Orleans 24
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO +6, 48
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Pittsburgh
Steele: The Bears delivered for me in the opener as seven-point home 'dogs versus Atlanta while nearly winning the game outright. Last week, I liked the Bears again, but they had three turnovers and a missed field goal. They surprisingly trailed 26-0 at the half despite being outgained by only a 149-121 margin. Last season, Pittsburgh averaged 373 yards per game on offense, but with running back Le'Veon Bell just working himself back into shape, the Steelers have only 313 yards per game in 2017. The defense has registered nine sacks and allowed just 237 yards per game, but that was against the Browns and a Vikings team missing Sam Bradford. Since 2012, the Steelers have had 41 games away from home and only 10 times have they won by more than seven points. The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS as a home 'dog the past two years, but with the Bears getting more than a touchdown, I like them here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Last week, the Buccaneers were easily able to diagnose the limited offense of the Bears, holding Chicago to just 1.3 yards per carry and one first down rushing for the entire game. That forced the Bears into the pass-heavy scheme that ultimately became Mike Glennon's undoing, as he threw two interceptions, including a pick-six in a 29-7 blowout. But don't let the final score fool you. The Bucs averaged only 4.6 yards per play, and 21 of their points came off the INT return and fumble recoveries that set up Tampa at the Bears' 13 and 35.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Pittsburgh 25, Chicago 20
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI +7.5, 45.5
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Detroit Lions
Total: 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Atlanta
Steele: The Super Bowl hangover has not kicked in yet, as Atlanta is 2-0. In the opener, a weaker Chicago team did have a first-and-goal at the Atlanta 5-yard line trailing by six, but could not score on four consecutive plays. Atlanta has an improved defense this year and possesses the stronger run game. Detroit is on a short week, but the Lions are on a 10-3 straight-up run at Ford Field. Atlanta is the stronger team but is coming off an A-plus effort versus Green Bay in the new stadium opener. I will pass in this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 27, Detroit 25
The pick: Detroit and the over -- DET +3, 49
Sharp: Detroit's offense has faced the stingy defenses of the Cardinals and Giants, and now the Lions get to tangle at home with a Falcons defense that will likely be without a couple of valuable starters. I have been extremely impressed with Matthew Stafford and this passing offense against the Lions' difficult schedule. While Atlanta has been vastly superior on early downs this year, I expect much of that was schedule-related. I'm projecting the Lions offense to be able to methodically drive against the Falcons.
Pick: Lions +3
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Indianapolis
Steele: The Browns just took on a pair of probable playoff teams in the Steelers and Ravens but have been outgained by just 2 yards per game. Indianapolis is a different team without quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts took on two probable non-playoff teams in the Rams and Cardinals and were outgained by 136 yards per game. With Luck out again, the Browns are the stronger team, but they have been an away favorite just once in the past five years and lost that game 24-6 to Jacksonville (2014). Cleveland is 1-17 straight-up since the start of 2016 and has not won on the road since beating Baltimore in October of 2015. The Colts have allowed eight sacks in 2017, but the Browns' offensive line hasn't fared any better by giving up 10. There are questions on both sides, but I will call for the Browns to grab a rare win.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: This is a battle of the two least efficient teams in the NFL this year, but the journey for the Browns offense toward that standing has been more difficult than for the Colts. Cleveland has tangled with the Steelers and the Ravens, which sport the No. 6 and No. 1 defenses, respectively, in the league and the No. 8 and No. 1 pass defenses. Now the Browns get to face a Colts defense that ranks 27th in defensive pass efficiency despite only tangling with the Rams' Jared Goff and the Cardinals' Carson Palmer. I'm extremely eager to see how Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer looks in this game.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Cleveland 23, Indianapolis 21
The pick: Over 40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (No line)
Total: TBA
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Tampa Bay
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14)
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 80 percent New England
Steele: The Patriots have owned the Texans with wins by 21 points in 2015, 27 in the 2016 regular season and by a 34-16 score in last season's playoffs. The second game came without Tom Brady and as a home 'dog. Houston is struggling on the offensive line and has a rookie quarterback under center versus a Bill Belichick defense. I expect a great effort from the Patriots and will lean with them here.
ATS pick: New England
Sharp: This is an extremely difficult game to peg at this time, given that the Patriots are extremely beat up and we don't know exactly who will play. The lone hope for the Texans to keep this close is to keep their run game going. The Patriots defense ranks No. 31 in defensive efficiency against the run but held the Saints to just 2.8 yards per carry in the first half last week and forced them to go to a pass-heavy offense as they trailed 20-3 after one quarter. If the Texans cannot run the ball, it's hard to envision Deshaun Watson putting up enough to keep this within the spread.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: New England 27, Houston 18
The pick: Houston and the over --- HOU +13, 43.5
Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Miami
Steele: The Dolphins trailed for the majority of the game last week against the Chargers but kicked a 54-yard field goal with 1:05 remaining. They held on following a missed Los Angeles field goal in the final seconds. Miami's best matchup here is running back Jay Ajayi versus a Jets rush defense that allows 185 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. The Jets have the weakest roster in the NFL and are 0-2, being outgained by 167 yards per game. With Miami headed to London next, I do not like either side here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The Jets defense currently ranks No. 32 in red zone efficiency, No. 31 on third down and No. 30 in my custom analytic that tracks rates of drives where a team starts with the ball inside its own 30 and marches the length of a field for a TD. The Jets' issues start with the pass rush, where they currently rank 30th, and that helps impact their poor pass defense, which ranks No. 29. Meanwhile, the Dolphins allowed 72 percent of early-down passes to be successful in their one game, the worst rate in the league. If neither pass rush is able to get home consistently, it will be hard for either defense to keep the points scored down.
Play: Over 42.5
Clay:
Prediction: Miami 25, New York Jets 17
The pick: Miami and the Over -- MIA -6, 41.5
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: N/A
Steele: Normally when I throw the Giants in the trash, they jump up and play to their talent level. I had the Giants as a top-10 team at the start of the season, but they have looked well below average thus far. The offensive line has allowed eight sacks, and the Giants are averaging just 252 yards per game. I am officially throwing them in the trash. The Eagles opened last season 4-0 straight-up and ATS at home, beating teams like the Steelers, Vikings and Falcons by 18 points per game. Philadelphia has won its past three home games versus New York by 17 points per game. The Eagles have outgained Washington and Kansas City by 77 yards per game on the road, and should dominate in their home opener.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Sharp: The Eagles' front seven is one of the best in the NFL. The Eagles recorded four sacks of the Chiefs' Alex Smith last week at Arrowhead, holding him to one TD and just two passes all day that went for 20-plus yards. However, the Eagles' weakness is their secondary, so the Chiefs uncharacteristically went 63 percent pass and were able to be efficient with their completions. The lone hope for the Giants in this game is a quick-release, short-passing offense. This is in their repertoire, but we haven't see them execute it this season.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 21, New York Giants 17
The pick: New York Giants and the under -- NYG +6, 43
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Seattle
Steele: It took Pete Carroll three years to get the Seahawks to being a playoff/Super Bowl-caliber team. Since 2012, the Seahawks are 10-3-3 as a 'dog. I thought Tennessee would beat Oakland in the opener, but the Titans struggled in a 10-point defeat. Seattle is averaging just 269 yards per game but had just 15 points in its first two games last season before exploding for 30 points per game over the next three. I will gladly take Seattle as a 'dog.
ATS pick: Seattle
Rynning: This will be a firm step up in class for this Titans club -- especially offensively, matched up against the top-notch Seahawks defense. Compounding matters for the Titans will be the loss of wide receiver Corey Davis and the highly questionable status of running back DeMarco Murray. The Seahawks' offense should perk up against a still-below-average Titans defense, which is allowing 5.4 yards per play.
Pick: Seattle
Sharp: The most intriguing matchup of the week comes when Marcus Mariota, the much-ballyhooed young QB, meets up with the stingy pass defense of the Seahawks (No. 7 in the NFL). Last week, the Titans went back to the run-heavy approach and dominated the Jaguars on the ground, racking up 179 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry in a 37-16 win. Don't let the final score fool you, however, as Mariota was extremely inefficient (56 percent on completions, 78.5 rating). This is a continuation of a trend that saw Mariota post a subpar preseason and a below-average performance in Week 1. With the Seahawks offensive line struggling and Mariota's performance dipping, I expect this result to come down to an old-school factor of whoever runs the ball the best and avoids the most negative plays.
Pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 22, Seattle 21
The pick: SEA +3
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Green Bay
Steele: Since 2014, the Packers are just 11-10-1 ATS coming off a loss. Entering the season, I had the Bengals as a playoff contender with their main weakness being the offensive line. Their offense has been virtually nonexistent thus far, as they've mustered just nine points and have yet to reach the end zone. The Packers' defensive performance in Week 1 at home against the Seahawks, when they surrendered just nine points and had their own offensive line issues (injuries to Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, Jahri Evans and Jason Spriggs), have me leaning with the under here.
ATS pick: Under 44.5
Erin Rynning's take: No question the Bengals' offense is bordering on horrendous in 2017. However, just two games in, this offense has reason to move forward on Sunday. Looking for a spark, Cincinnati fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and has Bill Lazor stepping in. With a couple of extra days to prep, look for the needed adjustments to pay off.
Note: The Bengals have played two of the NFL's best defensive units in the early going (Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens). The Packers' defense will provide a definite step down in class; linebacker Nick Perry is expected to be out and defensive end Mike Daniels is very questionable, softening Green Bay's front seven.
Pick: Over 46
Sharp: With Zampese out and Lazor in at offensive coordinator, the arrow is pointing up for the Bengals offense. The question is, at what angle? Lazor's goal is to get the ball out faster and prevent the negative plays that have plagued the Bengals this season. It's only Week 3, but the Packers are extremely beat up on both sides of the ball. If the Cincinnati offense can perform even a little bit better, the trickle-down effect will help its defense and overall field position.
Lean: Bengals +9
Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 26, Cincinnati 21
The pick: Cincinnati and the over --- CIN +9, 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent Kansas City
Steele: The Chiefs have won six in a row in this series and could have a decent crowd in this small venue like the Dolphins did a week ago. Kansas City has been the most impressive team in the NFL the first two weeks, including that 42-27 win at New England. Last year, it was a bunch of near misses for the Chargers in San Diego; now in Los Angeles, it is more of the same, with the team two missed field goals away from possibly being undefeated. The Chiefs have played the tougher schedule and boast an improved offense featuring rookie running back Kareem Hunt. The Chargers are on an 0-6-1 ATS run and drop another one against the spread this week.
ATS pick: Kansas City
Sharp: Given the Chargers' history, it's likely for this game to be decided by a single score, placing inherent value on the home underdog. That said, the two biggest impediments for the Chargers are their run game and their third-down performance. Melvin Gordon ranks 48th out of 50 rushers in success rate (26 percent) and is averaging 2.5 yards per carry (worst in the NFL for rushers with at least 17 attempts). Additionally, the Chargers offense ranks No. 30 in third-down conversion rate. So, while L.A. has been great in bypassing third down, if forced into it, the Bolts are rarely successful. I'll still lean Chargers, but they will need a lot more from Gordon.
Lean: Chargers +3
Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 22, Kansas City 21
The pick: Los Angeles and the under -- LAC +3, 46
