MistaFlava's NFL Week 3 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2017 MistaFlava's NFL Season Record: 17-9-1 ATS (+37.00 Units)

Welcome to another NFL season. I had one of my best pre-seasons ever and I hope it can carry over into the regular season. I will be providing writeups for almost all plays (hopefully time permits) and will be going with 10, 25 and 50 Unit picks this season.

Season Recap

Pre-Season: 13-4 ATS (+96.00 Units)
Week 1: 4-4-1 ATS (-48.00 Units)
Week 2: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 3: Pending...

Good luck to all in 2017 and let's make some cash!

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Sunday, September 24


New Orleans Saints +5 (10 Units)

The Buffalo Bills had em. They had the Carolina Panthers right where they wanted them but a combination of complete uselessness on offense and some rookies mistakes (and let's not forget an inept QB), cost them the game. But they were there. WR Zay Jones ran a perfect route but turned the wrong way and missed an easy game winning touchdown catch. The Panthers are not that good. Bring in Drew Brees and his offense and this Panthers team is in trouble. Brees and company average 386.5 offensive yards per game on 6.4 yards per play. Compare that to the Panthers and their 271.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play. Sure the Saints have given up an astronomical 7.8 yards per play on defense this season and their secondary is as bad as it's ever been but right now Cam Newton has a QB rating of 81.7 in two games. He's been sacked 6 times, thrown an interception and is averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Not much of a threat. The Saints D has yet to force a turnover this season. Something tells me they get that done today. Red Zone efficiency is where the Panthers will hurt today. They will get yards, they will get points but converting at only 16.7% of the time in the Red Zone will be a problem against a Saints team that can score on every drive.

Check the ATS stats for the Saints. It's simple. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a home winning record on the season and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games where they allowed 30+ points in their previous game. This team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road overall and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 versus the NFC South. Incredible. Carolina on the other hand have not done well against NFC South opponents going 1-5 ATS in their last six and they are now only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games overall dating back to last season. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, the underdog has covered the spread in 5 straight and the road team has covered in 22 of the last 31 meetings. An obvious play here, the Saints win on the road.

Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.


New Orleans 24, Carolina 21





more to come...

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Indianapolis Colts +1 (10 Units)

Who else is on this? Anyone? I thought QB Jacoby Brissett looked "okay" in his season debut last week. He completed 55% of his passes for 267 passing yards and 6.7 yards per pass attempt but failed to throw a TD pass and had 1 interception with a QB Rating of 65.3. Meh. Browns QB Deshone Kizer has completed only 57.4% of his passes for 404 total passing yards and 6.6 yards per pass attempt with 1 touchdown pass and 4 interceptions for a QB Rating of 55.6. OUCH! Now he goes on the road where the crows can be loud in Indy and I just don't see it happening. Everyone is talking about running the ball with Crowell against the Colts but right now the Colts have the #7 ranked run defense in the NFL through two games and are allowing only 2.5 yards per carry. This should allow them to come after Kizer who has been sacked 10 times in the opening two games. The Colts D has recorded 5 sacks in their first two games and they should force some turnovers against a Browns offense who has turned the ball over 6 times in two games. I watched a Cleveland game this year and they take way too many stupid penalties, they turn the ball over way too much and they have a rookie QB playing on the road. I'm going to leave it at that in a battle of brutal teams.

From an ATS perspective the Browns have always struggled after big passing performances going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they pass for 250+ yards. Dating back to last season they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games played on the road (rookie QB on the road keep that in mind) and are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record. Nobody said things got better against bad teams. The Colts on the other hand (and most of this is with Andrew Luck so take it with a grain of salt), have covered the spread in 25 of their last 33 versus teams with a losing record and in the regular season they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a game where they score less than 15 in their previous game. Colts find a way to win this and the Browns keep being the Browns.

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they pass for 250+ yards.


Indianapolis 24, Cleveland 19





more to come...

good luck Mister

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Philadelphia Eagles -6 (10 Units)

The guys in Vegas will tell you to stay away from this game because the Eagles went from -3 to -6 in the span of 24 hours after the Giants looked like crap against the Lions on Monday Night Football. Okay I get that but I was going to take the -3 with the assumption that the Eagles win this game by 10+ so the line doesn't change much for me. The Giants are very bad. Maybe we see a bit more out of them today in a rivalry game but on a short week's rest I just don't know what to expect. On D they are not so bad and they've made some plays but on offense they are HORRENDOUS. Ranked #30 in total yards of offense, ranked #32 in the league in rushing yards and ranked #31 in the league in points scored. So what can they do on the road against an Eagles defense that is ranked #11 in total yards allowed this season and who have one of the best offenses in the NFL to back them up? Philadelphia has the #3 passing attack in the league and as long as they can protect Carson Wentz today they will continue to have success. Can the Giants protect Eli Manning? Doubt it. He has been sacked 8 times in two games and the Eagles pass rush has 8 sacks in two games. The Eagles D also has 4 turnovers in two games. They are a bend but don't break type of D or better yet high risk high reward and that should payoff against the Giants who average only 5.0 yards per play on the season.

The Giants are now 0 for their last 4 games on the spread in September dating back to last season and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Philadelphia is the opposite. The Eagles are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in September, their time of regression is not until later in the season and they are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games dating back to 2016. You would think this series has a lot of upsets but it doesn't. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and that makes the Giants 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings with the Eagles. Also consider that in their last five trips to the city of brotherly love, the Giants have covered the spread only once. Odell Beckham Jr is back and he will start making an impact soon but I just don't like the matchup for them today and I am taking the Eagles to win big. Big Ben Mac might not have a job come Monday Morning.

Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in September.


Philadelphia 27, NY Giants 10





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Tennessee Titans -2 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

This is my make or break play of the day. Lose this one and the week goes down the drain but I like taking big risks and I like the adrenaline of the "big one". I don't typically go against the Seahawks but this is the time of the year to do it. Nobody takes as long as the Seahawks to get their engines going every season and after watching last week's debacle against the Niners, I am convinced this is going to be a huge game for the Titans. So far through two games the Seahawks have looked brutal and have dropped both games on the spread. Now they go on the road to face a TOP 10 offense who have the #6 rushing attack in the league and who have the #9 scoring offense in the league and #7 ranked in total yards of offense. Not that this is a big problem for Seattle because defense is all they've shown in 2017 but they have struggled pretty badly to stop the run and that's a concern. So far Seattle is allowing 121.5 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.2 yards per carry and playing contain against Marcus Mariota is going to be an issue. Both Russ Wilson and Mariota have been disappointing this season and their numbers speak for themselves but what really has me here is the fact that Pete Carroll and his guys have lacked so much discipline and average 8.5 penalties per game after only two games. Tennessee is one of the best 3rd down teams in the league having converted 48.1% of the time this season and 3rd downs have been the problem for this Seahawks defense all year (opponents converting 39.3% of the time). Expect the Titans to run all over the Seahawks here and Mariota will start making plays.

Great performance last week for the Seattle defense but looking at some ATS numbers the Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they allowed less than 15 points. There is no way they go on the road and hold this Titans run game and possession based offense to anything less than 15 points. Dating back to 2016, Seattle is now 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and they looked brutal against Green Bay in the season opener. Over the years I have rarely bet on the Titans because they have a notoriously bad ATS record year in and year out. Their wins are all close and they lack big time consistency but this matchup is one I love more than any other for quite some time. Throwing out the fact that the underdog has covered 6 straight in this series (a trend that is bound to end eventually since they don't play each other all the time) I will lean more towards the fact that Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Tennessee. Here we go, going big with the Titans!

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.


Tennessee 31, Seattle 16





​more to come...

Week 3 Recap

New Orleans +5
Indianapolis +1
Philadelphia -6
Tennessee -2 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***



2-1 ATS (+19.00 Units) this week and pending.




:toast:

Who do you like for the late game mf?

cashflow50 said:

Who do you like for the late game mf?

Click to expand...

Posting in the next 15 minutes!

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Oakland Raiders -3 (10 Units)

You know this is the popular public play tonight and public plays today have been massacred. Baltimore (65%), Denver (68%), Pittsburgh (68%), Tampa Bay (67%), Miami (68%) and New England (62%) ALL FAILED TO COVER THE SPREAD today as big time public favorites. Of the ones I just listed 5 of the 6 lost. All the road public faves lost. New England won but barely. As we speak Green Bay (70%) are also losing and it's late in the game. So what in the world would make someone take the Raiders tonight? They are another very favored public road side and these have been getting demolished all day. For me this one's a bit different. Sometimes when Vegas steals so much money from bettors they want to give back and this could be one of those cases. The line seems absurd. Look at how well Tennessee played at home today against Seattle. Well Oakland went to Seattle and won 26-16 in Week 1 of the season. The Raiders are too good. They have the #2 scoring offense in the league and the third best rushing attack and rank #5 in total yards. Can Washington handle this? Nope. The Redskins D is terrible. They've been good against the run but they are allowing 25 points per game (ranked #27 in the league) and ranked #26 in total yards allowed. The Raiders have done everything right. They have 0 turnovers in two games on the season. Derek Carr is averaging 240 passing yards per game on 8.0 yards per pass attempt and he has been sacked only 2 times. The defense is not the greatest but they are a bend but don't break style defense who have 5 sacks in two games and who have recovered 2 fumbles. Kirk Cousins has been awful through two games with a QB Rating of 78.9 on the year. He's been sacked 6 times, thrown 1 INT and the Skins have fumbled 6 times in those two games losing the ball 3 of those 6 times. 3rd downs? Well, I can tell you that both teams suck at 3rd down defense (50% for Washington and 53.8% for Oakland) but only one has been effective on 3rd downs offensively and that's the Raiders. They are converting 54.2% of the time on 3rd downs this season. They are also scoring touchdowns 71.4% of the time in the Red Zone compared to the Redskins who convert only 33.3% of the time this season. The numbers speak for themselves.

So much talk about Washington beating Oakland two in a row. Ummm...that was in 2013 and 2009 and in 2013 the QB for the Raiders in that game was MATT FLYNN! Throw those two games out the window folks. Today I bet on some teams who have been great in September games and the Raiders fit the bill. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in September. They are also like the Saints who are a tremendous on the road. Oakland is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games dating back to last season and unlike some of the public fave teams today they have already proven themselves in a road game in 2017. The beatdown of Tennessee in Week 1. Washington covered the spread in LA last week but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off an ATS win and in their last four home games hosting a road team with a winning road record, they have gone 0-4 ATS. Ouch! The history in this series doesn't matter but just for the record, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Nonetheless, the Raiders are the real deal in 2017 and they are on the National stage to show it. Raiders and nothing else.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last seven September games.


Oakland 34, Washington 13





​more to come...

Mr./Flava.......nicely done this week........continued success with next week action.........indy

Week 3 Recap

New Orleans +5
Indianapolis +1
Philadelphia -6
Tennessee -2 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Oakland -3


3-1 ATS (+69.00 Units) this week and pending.




:toast:

Nice day

Nice pal....

Well done today. Your analysis on the Saints was spot in!

Great work MF , congrats!