Thursday 9/28/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Soccer

Europe - Europa League

1pm ET

BATE Borisov v Arsenal

Last Head-To-Heads at BATE Borisov:
None

Recent Form:
BATE Borisov: 5-0-1
Arsenal: 4-1-1

KEY STAT: Arsenal have two clean sheets in ten away games

EXPERT VERDICT: This Bate squad is not the tricky opponent of recent times, losing to Slavia Prague in Champions League qualifying before just edging past European novices Oleksandria. Arsene Wenger is likely to again rotate his squad but Arsenal should get the job done easily enough, even if they suffer the odd scare.

RECOMMENDATION: Arsenal to win 3-1 (1)

Soccer

Europe - Europa League

3:05pm ET

Everton v Apollon Limassol

Last Head-To-Heads at Everton:
none

Recent Form:
Everton: 2-4
Apollon Limassol: 2-0-4

KEY STAT: Apollon had more shots and possession than Lyon on matchday one

EXPERT VERDICT: Apollon’s qualifying results suggested they wouldn’t be whipping boys, with the Cypriots beating Aberdeen and Midtylland en route to the group stage. A 1-1 draw with Lyon on matchday one emphasised the point, and while they had to wait until the 93rd minute to equalise, Apollon were worthy of their point.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Everton double result (1)

Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 5:13 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $62,500.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $80,000.00 PURSE

#5 GOING FOR BROKE
#3 GIRL TALK
#1 SMILE BIG
#7 LITERATA

#5 GOING FOR BROKE is the overall speed leader in this O.C. field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in four of her last five outings, hitting the board in three of those four efforts. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chard Brown send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of more than 250 entries saddled as a team to date. #3 GIRL TALK, a 4-1 shot, also has a nice pace profile, and has hit the board in each of her four career starts to date, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $51000 Class Rating: 85

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 TIGER LISA 6/1

# 8 WINE HALO 4/1

# 5 SHANGHAI TARIFF 5/1

I lean toward TIGER LISA here. This filly could improve with second time Lasix. With Bridgmohan controlling the reins on her, this filly will most likely be able to break out quickly for this event. Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group recently. WINE HALO - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at her. May best this field here, showing very good figures of late. SHANGHAI TARIFF - Will likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the race. Has the appearance of a lucrative wager.

The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 STRONG LIKE BULL 5/2

# 2 JUDGE MONEY 8/1

# 7 TOSS THE TUB 10/1

I like STRONG LIKE BULL here. Will most likely compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 85 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this field. Has been close at the finishing post most every time recently.

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

Delaware Park - Race 8

Daily Double (Races 8-9) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent. min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.)


Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 4:45P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 28, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FIVE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR WAIVER CLAIMING $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES.).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DR. TOOLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SOCIAL STRANGER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. ROYAL MARINE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. MONKEY'S MEDAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NATIVE HAWK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays.
4
DR. TOOLE
5/2

5/1
6
SOCIAL STRANGER
7/2

6/1
3
ROYAL MARINE
6/1

7/1
1
MONKEY'S MEDAL
9/5

8/1
2
NATIVE HAWK
8/1

10/1

The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:43pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,300 Class Rating: 53

Rating: 3

#3 MARILYN'S PASSION (ML=7/2)
#1 HOOF HOOF AWAY (ML=2/1)
#2 INHERENT VALUE (ML=3/1)


MARILYN'S PASSION - This equine has the pace, and no one may be able to keep up with her. This horse didn't run well on a sloppy track in her last race at Penn National. You probably should overlook that effort. HOOF HOOF AWAY - When this jock and handler unite you have to take a look. Munar and Bobadilla have been great together. INHERENT VALUE - Ran in the last race against better company at Penn National. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. A repeat of that recent performance on December 2nd where she earned a rating of 46 looks high enough to win in this affair. Another way to assign class is earnings per start (EPS). This animal has the top in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the finish. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the 2nd time. This one fits the bill. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FREEDOM AND PRIDE (ML=5/1), #5 MELISSA'S GAL (ML=6/1),

FREEDOM AND PRIDE - This horse hasn't been close at the finish line recently. This filly notched a speed fig in her last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race. MELISSA'S GAL - This animal doesn't win here at Penn National. She needs some different venue to show her best. This thoroughbred hasn't shown much in the last pair of affairs.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #3 MARILYN'S PASSION on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:30pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: 3

#2 MEOW (ML=3/1)
#7 CITRINE HARBOR (ML=7/2)
#4 GOOD SALLY (ML=6/1)


MEOW - When this jockey and trainer team up you have to take a look. Garcia and Delacour have been terrific together. CITRINE HARBOR - A campaigner coming back this soon after a strong race is a good sign. Ranks at the top in earnings per start (EPS). A powerful try in this field can add to the lifetime bankroll. GOOD SALLY - Ran in the last race against much better company at Presque Isle Downs. The move down the class ladder should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DRIVER'S GIRL (ML=5/2), #1A TEAM HALO (ML=6/1), #1 LAUGHS N KISSES (ML=6/1),

DRIVER'S GIRL - No value in wagering on this racer. Probably won't improve off that September 10th race. TEAM HALO - This mare gave a lackluster effort last time out. This vulnerable equine ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig last out. She shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's event running that figure. LAUGHS N KISSES - When checking today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a better speed figure than last time out to be competitive in this dirt route.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 MEOW to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 4

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)


Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $46,283 • Post: 8:31P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * FROM OUT THERE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SCAT CAT GRAVY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GOLDEN YORK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PIPEFIGHTER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff .
4
FROM OUT THERE
2/1

9/2
5
SCAT CAT GRAVY
3/1

5/1
3
GOLDEN YORK
5/1

9/1
6
PIPEFIGHTER
6/1

10/1

MLB

National League

Reds @ Brewers
Romano is 1-2, 3.57 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Reds are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-3

Brewers won last five Suter starts (1-0, 3.38), last three of which stayed under. Milwaukee is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-2

Reds lost seven of their last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Milwaukee lost four of last six games (under 4-1-1). Brewers are 2.5 games out in the Wild Card race.

Pirates @ Nationals
Nova is 0-4, 7.77 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. Pirates are 4-13 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-15-3

Strasburg is 4-0, 1.06 in his last five starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Washington is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-4

Pirates won their last four games; under is 12-2 in their last 14 road games. Pittsburgh is 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Washington is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 games. Nationals are 7-9 in last 16 home series openers.

Braves @ Marlins
Teheran is 4-1, 2.31 in his last six starts; under is 7-1-2 in his last ten. Braves are 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-5

Peters is 0-2, 6.31 in five starts this year (over 4-1). Miami lost both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Braves lost four of last five games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Atlanta is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Marlins lost three of last four games (under 3-1); they’re 11-6 in last 17 home series openers.

Cubs @ Cardinals
Hendricks is 3-1, 2.48 in his last six starts, last five of which stayed under total. Cubs are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-5

Lynn is 1-1, 13.97 in his last three starts; under is 12-4 in his last 16. St Louis is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-15-2

Cubs won 12 of last 15 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. St Louis won six of last nine home games; under is 7-3 in their last ten.
__________________________________________________

American League

Rays @ New York
Faria is making his first start since August 16; he is 0-3, 5.06 in his last four starts. Under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Rays are 5-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2

Gray is 2-2, 3.42 in his last four starts (under 8-2). New York is 2-2 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-1

Tampa Bay is 4-8 in its last 12 games; three of their last five games went over. New York won 11 of last 14 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Twins @ Indians
Twins clinched playoff berth last night; not sure how long Santana goes here. Santana is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts. Twins are 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-7

Carrasco is 5-0, 1.52 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Indians are 10-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 22-7-2

Twins won five of their last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games- they clinched a playoff spot last night. Cleveland is 30-3 in its last 33 games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.

Astros @ Red Sox
Peacock is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Astros are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-4-2

Rodriguez is 2-1, 2.13 in his last four starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten. Boston is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12

Houston won 11 of its last 13 games; under is 6-4 in their last ten. Boston won 10 of last 13 games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games.

A’s @ Rangers
Manaea is 2-2, 5.49 in his last four starts (under 3-1). A’s are 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-5

Gonzalez is 1-2, 7.16 in four starts for Texas (over 2-2). Texas lost his only home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

A’s won 8 of last 10 games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 road games. Oakland is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Texas lost its last six games; under is 7-4 in their last 11. Rangers are 6-1 in last seven home series openers.

Angels @ White Sox
Angels got eliminated last night; no idea who pitches here. Likely a bullpen game.

Covey is 0-4, 8.15 in his last four starts (over 5-4-3). Chicago is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-1

Angels lost eight of their last ten games; seven of their last ten road games stayed under- they are now eliminated from playoff contention. Chicago won five of last seven games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.

Tigers @ Royals
Norris is 0-4, 9.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Tigers are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2

Duffy is 2-1, 3.18 in his last three starts; under is 7-4 in his last 11. Royals are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-4

Detroit lost its last nine games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13. Royals won three of last four home games; under is 9-6 in their last 15.
__________________________________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
Cin-Mil: Romano 6-9; Suter 8-5
Pitt-Wsh: Nova 13-17; Strasburg 21-6
Atl-Mia: Teheran 15-16; Peters 1-4
Chi-StL: Hendricks 11-12; Lynn 14-18

American League
Min-Clev: Santana 19-13; Carrasco 23-8
TB-NY: Faria 8-5; Gray 4-6
Hst-Bos: Peacock 14-6; Rodriguez 13-10
A’s-Tex: Manaea 13-15; Gonzalez 2-2
LAA-Chi: unknown Covey 3-8
Det-KC: Norris 7-10; Duffy 11-12

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Mil: Romano 6-15; Suter 1-13
Pitt-Wsh: Nova 11-30; Strasburg 4-27
Atl-Mia: Teheran 10-31; Peters 2-5
Chi-StL: Hendricks 8-23; Lynn 10-32

American League
Min-Clev: Santana 8-32; Carrasco 5-31
TB-NY: Faria 2-13; Gray 2-10
Hst-Bos: Peacock 2-20; Rodriguez 6-23
A’s-Tex: Manaea 9-28; Gonzalez 1-4
LAA-Chi: unknown Covey 7-11
Det-KC: Norris 3-17; Duffy 6-23
__________________________________________________

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 75-72 NL, favorites +$396
Total: 156-131 AL, favorites +$116

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-65-8
Total: Over 146-133-12
__________________________________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/19/17
Ariz 28-26-20……43-25–12……..71-51
Atl 27-35-10……26-42-8………..53-77
Cubs 33-31-8…….39-25-14………..72-56
Reds 23-43-9……..30-37-9…………53-80
Colo 38-31-7………40-29-5………..78-60
LA 38-24-13…….41-25-9…………79-49
Miami 32-36-10…….36-26-11………68-62
Milw 37-27-10…….38-29-10……….74-56
Mets 33-39-5……..30-37-7………….63-76
Philly 19-43-16……30-36-9………..49-79
Pitt 31-37-9…….28-33-13………..60-70
St. Louis 32-34-9……..39-25-10………..71-59
SD 21-46-8……..38-29–9…………59-75
SF 16-49-9……..30-33-13……….46-81
Wash 43-23-7……34-33-10………….77-56

Orioles 29-39-5……..31-39-8………..60-78
Boston 31-35-11………34-37-3……….65-72
White Sox 25-40-11………29-42–4…….54-82
Cleveland 45-23-8……..39-24-10……..84-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….30-36-11……..57-74
Astros 37-28-11……..47-24-5………84-52
KC 26-35-13……..30-31-13…….56-66
Angels 26-39-8………31-31-14……..57-70
Twins 38-24-13………38-33-8……..76-57
NYY 34-38-7……….40-28-5…..…74-66
A’s 29-39-10……..32-32-12……..61-71
Seattle 29-39-9……..39-25-11………68-64
TB 36-29-11……..40-24-9……..76-53
Texas 35-27-12……..38-28-9……..73-55
Toronto 30-40-5……..30-33-12……..60-73

%age of times teams score in first inning
(road/home/total- 9/19/17)
Ariz 24-76……..27-74………..51
Atl 17-71……….19-79………36
Cubs 20-72……..26-78………..46
Reds 30-76……..27-76……….57
Colo 20-76……..25-74..……..45
LA 23-76……..26-74..…….49
Miami 32-78……..27-73……….59
Milw 24-74……29-78…..…..53
Mets 34-75……..26-75……….60
Philly 17-78……..24-74……….41
Pitt 22-77……..22-75……….44
StL 16-76……..23-73………..39
SD 23-75……….26-75……….49
SF 17-75……….22-77……….39
Wash 26-73……..30-77……….56

Orioles 17-76……..25-77……….42
Boston 21-77……..18-74……….39
White Sox 24-76……20-75……….44
Clev 22-77……..26-75………48
Detroit 18-74…….27-77………45
Astros 21-77……..29-74………50
KC 18-75……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..22-77……….49
Twins 17-73……..20-77……….37
NYY 19-78……..21-73……….40
A’s 20-76……..27-76………47
Seattle 21-77…….25-77……….46
TB 22-74……..26-77………48
Texas 29-76……..30-74………59
Toronto 26-76……..21-78………47

MLB Trend Report

12:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

4:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY YANKEES
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

7:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 17 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games at home

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

7:15 PM
CHI CUBS vs. ST. LOUIS
Chi Cubs are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi Cubs

8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Texas's last 19 games when playing Oakland

8:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
LA Angels are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
LA Angels are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games

8:15 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games

TAMPA BAY @ NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

PITTSBURGH @ WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

ATLANTA @ MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

HOUSTON @ BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

CHI CUBS @ ST. LOUIS
Chi Cubs is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 10 games at home
St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

OAKLAND @ TEXAS
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home

LA ANGELS @ CHI WHITE SOX
LA Angels is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Angels

DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Detroit

MLB Long Sheet

CINCINNATI (67 - 91) at MILWAUKEE (83 - 75) - 4:10 PM
SAL ROMANO (R) vs. BRENT SUTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-23 (-12.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-26 (-16.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 83-75 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 53-48 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 66-58 (+13.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 40-35 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 36-36 (+8.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 78-101 (-34.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 10-8 (+0.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.5 Units)

SAL ROMANO vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ROMANO is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

BRENT SUTER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
SUTER is 0-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

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PITTSBURGH (73 - 85) at WASHINGTON (95 - 63) - 7:05 PM
IVAN NOVA (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 73-85 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 29-48 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 46-63 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 115-135 (-31.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 132-273 (-75.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
NOVA is 4-14 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 68-35 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 65-51 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-34 (-20.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 183-162 (-54.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 13-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
JACKSON is 56-76 (-28.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

IVAN NOVA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
NOVA is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.371.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
JACKSON is 8-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.61 and a WHIP of 1.271.
His team's record is 8-7 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-7. (-0.8 units)

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ATLANTA (71 - 87) at MIAMI (74 - 84) - 7:10 PM
JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. DILLON PETERS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TEHERAN is 14-29 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 17-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 139-180 (+2.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 42-37 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ATLANTA is 71-86 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 34-37 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 50-56 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 98-81 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
TEHERAN is 15-11 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEHERAN is 9-3 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 30-40 (-11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
MIAMI is 63-84 (-28.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 53-59 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-5 (+4.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.2 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)

JULIO TEHERAN vs. MIAMI since 1997
TEHERAN is 6-4 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.244.
His team's record is 9-7 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-7. (+0.8 units)

DILLON PETERS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

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CHICAGO CUBS (89 - 69) at ST LOUIS (82 - 76) - 7:15 PM
KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 13-5 (+7.6 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HENDRICKS is 2-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 6-4 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.8 units)

LANCE LYNN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LYNN is 6-6 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.360.
His team's record is 7-10 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-7. (+1.1 units)

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MINNESOTA (83 - 75) at CLEVELAND (99 - 59) - 12:10 PM
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-11 (+0.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
13 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+7.6 Units)

ERVIN SANTANA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
SANTANA is 7-11 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.248.
His team's record is 9-15 (-6.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 17-7. (+9.4 units)

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
CARRASCO is 4-6 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.451.
His team's record is 5-8 (-6.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-5. (+2.2 units)

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TAMPA BAY (76 - 82) at NY YANKEES (89 - 69) - 7:05 PM
JACOB FARIA (R) vs. SONNY GRAY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 144-175 (-39.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 91-117 (-31.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 108-120 (-20.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 22-6 (+14.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 21-6 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in home games in September games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 49-24 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 64-33 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
GRAY is 19-29 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 3-13 (-13.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 8-20 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 8-16 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 12-6 (+4.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.3 Units)

JACOB FARIA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FARIA is 0-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

SONNY GRAY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GRAY is 3-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.270.
His team's record is 4-6 (-3.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-7. (-6.2 units)

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HOUSTON (98 - 60) at BOSTON (92 - 66) - 7:10 PM
BRAD PEACOCK (R) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-22 (-18.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-23 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 52-26 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 74-47 (+15.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 98-60 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 24-13 (+10.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 50-27 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 35-19 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 31-17 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 17-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 688-617 (-81.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
BOSTON is 371-293 (-47.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
BOSTON is 14-21 (-15.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-42 (-7.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 437-399 (-79.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BOSTON is 225-227 (-64.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 (+1.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

BRAD PEACOCK vs. BOSTON since 1997
PEACOCK is 0-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 12.39 and a WHIP of 2.879.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-3. (-3.5 units)

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. HOUSTON since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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OAKLAND (73 - 85) at TEXAS (76 - 82) - 8:05 PM
SEAN MANAEA (L) vs. MIGUEL GONZALEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 210-272 (-47.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 364-461 (-98.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 27-50 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 9-25 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
OAKLAND is 39-58 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MANAEA is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 171-152 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 29-19 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 79-69 (+15.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 127-105 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 80-68 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 116-110 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
GONZALEZ is 33-18 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 145-123 (+41.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 15-10 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
OAKLAND is 36-35 (+6.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 39-43 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TEXAS is 18-24 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 9-6 (+3.3 Units) against TEXAS this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)

SEAN MANAEA vs. TEXAS since 1997
MANAEA is 2-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

MIGUEL GONZALEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
GONZALEZ is 0-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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LA ANGELS (78 - 80) at CHI WHITE SOX (65 - 93) - 8:10 PM
BUD NORRIS (R) vs. DYLAN COVEY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 4-2 (+0.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

BUD NORRIS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
NORRIS is 1-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 1.212.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

DYLAN COVEY vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

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DETROIT (62 - 96) at KANSAS CITY (78 - 80) - 8:15 PM
DANIEL NORRIS (L) vs. DANNY DUFFY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 62-96 (-33.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 24-43 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
DETROIT is 28-49 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 4-22 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
DETROIT is 36-67 (-29.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 27-47 (-22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DETROIT is 12-25 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
KANSAS CITY is 78-80 (+3.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 88-70 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 81-70 (+13.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 85-75 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NORRIS is 8-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 16-7 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 9-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 27-26 (-22.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 282-398 (-108.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 11-7 (+4.4 Units) against DETROIT this season
12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.7 Units)

DANIEL NORRIS vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
NORRIS is 0-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-5. (-4.9 units)

DANNY DUFFY vs. DETROIT since 1997
DUFFY is 7-7 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.244.
His team's record is 9-9 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-9. (-1.8 units)

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 9.5)

The Reds and Brewers wrap up their three-game series this afternoon at Miller Park in Milwaukee. The teams have split the first two games and the Brewers' playoff hopes are clinging to the thinnest of threads.

Despite winning 6-0 last night, the Reds can't be trusted to play proper spoiler on the Rockies behalf. Prior to their win on Wednesday they had lost seven baseball games in a row and they will send rookie right-hander Sal Romano to the mound today.

Romano's last start was a disappointing five earned runs allowed over four innings of work in a 5-4 loss at home against the Red Sox. And in his last start against the Brewers (Aug 13 at Miller Park) he allowed seven runs over five innings of work in an eventual 7-4 loss.

The Brewers will counter with lefty Brent Suter. He has been very good, especially during the month of September where he has made five appearances (four starts and one relief) and owns an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 1.2115. Dating back to August the Brewers have won Suter's last five starts overall.

Desperation is a great motivator in sports, and the Brewers are certainly desperate today with the Rockies' magic number now down to two.

Pick: Brewers -155

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-110, 9)

The Braves and Marlins close out their respective disappointing seasons with a four-game set beginning Thursday night in Miami.

Neither Atlanta nor Miami were able to take a step forward in the National League East like they hoped to this season, with the Marlins sitting at 74-84 on the season and 21 games behind the division leading Nationals, while the Braves are 71-87 and 24 games back.

The NL East rivals open this season-ending series with Julio Teheran taking the mound for the Braves, while the Marlins counter with Dillon Peters.

It has been an interesting year of interesting splits for the Braves’ Teheran, who is 11-12 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this season, but he hasn’t really enjoyed playing in the team’s new stadium, Sun Trust Park. However, Teheran has been excellent on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Meanwhile, it hasn’t been the easiest transition to the big leagues for the Marlins’ rookie Peters. The young southpaw is 0-2 in the first five starts of his career, pitching to a 6.31 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He’s been even more roughed up in his last three outings, going 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP while walking more batters than he has struck out.

The only thing to cheer for in Marlins games recently is whether or not Gancarlo Stanton will hit 60 dingers.

Pick: Braves -110

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 158-144-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Brad Peacock, Houston Astros (12-2, 2.98 ERA, $324)

Very slim pickings for our Streaking Starter section today. Julio Teheran would likely have claimed the award, but we used him above in our Double-Play Picks.

Instead of Teheran we will go with Houston's Brad Peacock. The veteran utility right-hander is having a tremendous season for the Astros at 12-2 with a 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. Things have been even better for him on the road where he owns a personal win/loss record of 7-0 with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.14.

Peacock and the Astros are slight road underdogs at -102 at Fenway Park against Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox.

Slumping: Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals (5-6, 5.40 ERA, $-261)

As the Nationals begin to get their roster set up for their upcoming NLDS series against the Cubs, you can be pretty sure that Edwin Jackson will not be a part of their starting rotation.

A team win/loss of 5-7, an ERA of 5.40, and a WHIP of 1.45 in 12 starts with Washington is not very good. A team win/loss of 0-3, an ERA of 15.68, and a WHIP of 2.71 in his last three starts is, pretty much, as bad as it gets.

Jackson and the Nats are -145 home favorites against Ivan Nova and the Pirates today.

Thursday's Top Trends

* The Cleveland Indians are 30-3 in their last 33 overall. -260 today vs. Twins.
* The New York Yankees are 11-1 in their last 12 home games. -200 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 35-15-2 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 52 starts overall. Astros/Red Sox Total: 9.
* The Detroit Tigers are 5-24 in their last 29 vs. American League Central. +182 today at Royals.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Rain will not be a factor at any MLB ballpark without a roof today, but there will be wind. Here are the most notable breezes in the forecast for today:

Twins @ Indians (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left-center field.
Rays @ Yankees (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour crosswind blowing from left field to right field.
Pirates @ Nationals (Total: 9) - 11-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Astros @ Red Sox (Total: 9) - 13-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Athletics @ Rangers (Total: 10.5) - 9-11 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field.

MLB Umpire Assignment

959 Minnesota Twins
960 Cleveland Indians
Bill Miller 2017: 13-18, 17-13 o/u (2016: 18-15, 19-14 o/u)
Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Miller behind home plate.
Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 games with Miller behind home plate.

951 Cincinnati Reds +142 Over 9½ -110
952 Milwaukee Brewers -152 Under 9½ -110
Mike Everitt 2017: 16-15, 15-16 o/u (2016: 21-13, 10-24 o/u)
Under is 5-1 in Everitts last 6 games behind home plate.
Under is 11-4 in Everitts last 15 Reds games behind home plate.
Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Everitt behind home plate.

961 Tampa Bay Rays +179 Over 8½ +105
962 New York Yankees -189 Under 8½ -125
Jerry Layne 2017: 13-14, 10-15 o/u (2016: 13-15, 15-12 o/u)
Rays are 13-6 in their last 19 games with Layne behind home plate.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Layne behind home plate.
Over is 4-0 in Laynes last 4 Rays games behind home plate.
Over is 8-1-1 in Laynes last 10 Yankees games behind home plate.

957 Chicago Cubs
958 St. Louis Cardinals
Mark Wegner 2017: 15-14, 15-12 o/u (2016: 14-16, 20-9 o/u)
Road team is 6-0 in Wegners last 6 games behind home plate.
Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Wegner behind home plate.

967 Los Angeles Angels
968 Chicago White Sox
John Tumpane 2017: 17-10, 12-14 o/u (2016: 18-14, 18-13 o/u)
Home team is 6-1 in Tumpanes last 7 games behind home plate.
Angels are 2-6 in their last 8 games with Tumpane behind home plate.
White Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games with Tumpane behind home plate.

969 Detroit Tigers +170 Over 8½ -115
970 Kansas City Royals -180 Under 8½ -105
Greg Gibson 2017: 16-15, 16-15 o/u (2016: 16-12, 14-14 o/u)
Home team is 8-3 in Gibsons last 11 games behind home plate.
Tigers are 8-17 in their last 25 games with Gibson behind home plate.

MLB Top Trends

HOUSTON @ BOSTON
Play OVER HOUSTON on the total in All games on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. The record is 39 Overs and 16 Unders for the last two seasons (+21.85 units)

DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY
Play OVER DETROIT on the total in All games after 3 or more consecutive losses. The record is 35 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+21 units)

DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY
Play OVER DETROIT on the total in All games when playing on Thursday. The record is 15 Overs and 3 Unders this season (+11.9 units)

StatFox Super Situations

OAKLAND at TEXAS
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) after 2 straight games with at least 7 less hits than their opponent, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings 39-16 since 1997. ( 70.9% | 23.4 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

TAMPA BAY at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 49-17 (+27.5 Units) against the money line in Home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons. The average score was: NY YANKEES (5.6) , OPPONENT (3.8 )

Diamond Trends - Thursday

TOP SU TREND:

The Nationals are 11-0 since Sep 24, 2016 after they had more than ten team-left-on-base last game.

TOP OU TREND:

The Rays are 0-10 OU (-3.70 ppg) since Aug 10, 2017 off a game as a dog in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent.

TOP STARTER TREND:

The Cubs are 8-0 since Aug 01, 2015 when Kyle Hendricks starts on the road when the total is no greater than eight after he averaged more than 4 pitches per batter in his last start.

TOP CHOICE TREND:

The Tigers are 0-11 since Aug 29, 2017 off a game as a dog in which they did not hit a home run.

MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Cincinnati at Milwaukee (-155); Total: 9.5

The Brewers seem to be out of steam. They might win today, but the rigors of a 162-game season seem to have finally worn down one of the younger teams in the league. Milwaukee’s season is one of the biggest wins of the year because they established bullpen pieces, improved upon the rotation pieces that were in-house, and can now isolate some needs in free agency. They have the right minds in place to make another push next season, but I think the balloon has sprung a leak for this season.

They should win today, with Brent Suter up against Sal Romano, but the thing that has plagued the Brewers since May is that they simply haven’t been consistent enough on offense. Getting shut out by Homer Bailey in a must-win spot on Wednesday is a pretty good indicator of how things have gone. Studying the matchups is still important, but not as important as it was earlier in the season.

Honestly, I’m looking at the Reds today because they are playing free and easy. Guys are worried about personal accolades and about making an impression for next season. Playing under pressure over 155 games into the season is not easy for a team that hasn’t been through it, so I’m not surprised to see Milwaukee wilting a little bit.

I’d be willing to take a stab here at the Reds. They just snapped a long losing streak with yesterday’s win and feel like a better team to me than the 67-91 record would indicate. They just didn’t have enough starting pitching to get by with some guys like Anthony DeSclafani hurt and others put in the bullpen. That’s why they have had some prolonged skids. But, I think they’re moving in the right direction and they will be an over look for me next season.

Atlanta at Miami (-105); Total: 9

I’m a little bit surprised to see the market moving on the Marlins in this spot. I’ve been an ardent pessimist about Julio Teheran this season, but it seems like Dillon Peters has slammed into the wall, been pushed backwards, and slammed back into it again. It isn’t a workload concern, since his season has been marred by injury and he has only worked about 95 innings across four levels. Peters has allowed 13 runs on 15 hits over his last 7.2 innings of work. The advance scouting reports have gotten around and hitters have been taking some good swings. I guess you can make an argument that the Braves offense isn’t all that good, but neither is Milwaukee’s and they rocked him for eight runs on September 17.

When you get a guy like Julio Teheran, this is a pretty big start. Teheran went from a 3.21/3.69/4.13 slash last season to a 4.39/4.92/4.92 slash this season. Ending on a high note as he goes into an offseason where he’ll firmly be on the trade block is probably something that he does care about. Since August 25, Teheran owns a 2.08 ERA with a 3.26 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP, so he has made a conscious effort to finish the year strong. I think that will be the case again here.

The Marlins are entering an offseason of uncertainty with an ownership change. It was the one-year anniversary of Jose Fernandez’s death a couple days ago. I think they’re just ready to shut this thing down after Hurricane Irma and everything that came along with that.

Give me the Braves today. Sit and wait on it since the line is moving on Miami, but that’s how I’ll be looking to go.

Houston at Boston (-105); Total: 9

This is a fascinating series. Unless the Indians slip up this weekend against the White Sox, this is an ALDS preview. How much will these teams want to show? How much will these pitchers want to show? I don’t know if Eduardo Rodriguez will make the ALDS rotation. I don’t know if this is an audition. Will he use his full game plan? Brad Peacock will probably be a bullpen weapon for the Astros, so who knows what his plan will be?

I’m staying away from this entire series. Houston will probably give forth a strong effort because of the standings. I won’t be invested, though, because there’s a little bit of an ego factor in play here in terms of showing your opponent what you can do.

Oakland (-115) at Texas; Total: 10.5

Both pitchers have something on the line tonight at Globe Life Park. Sean Manaea has struggled down the stretch. Miguel Gonzalez is pitching for work next season. Some team without playoff aspirations will scoop him up as a mentor and innings eater, but he’ll still be looking to put his best foot forward in free agency.

The expectation here is obviously a high-scoring affair with a total of 10.5. It can be scary to play unders this weekend because hitters are just looking to pad their stats and attack the first good pitch. Still, I think we’re looking at a situation where that helps both pitchers. The deeper into counts hitters are able to go, the more likely a real mistake comes down the pike with these two pitchers and with most pitchers. I think we see a lot of aggressive swings here and I don’t think that is the right approach against either of these starters.

I’ll hold my nose and play the under.

Detroit at Kansas City (-195); Total: 8.5

The Royals won again yesterday. I don’t know what the Indians line will be. If we guess somewhere in the -300 range, a ML parlay of Indians -300 and Royals -195 pays about +100. I would be beyond shocked to see that lose. The Royals are making a push to finish .500 and Danny Duffy has thrown the ball pretty well of late. The Tigers are ready for this thing to be over. I think that’s a good bet today.

One late addition on an unlined game. The White Sox may be worth a look tonight. The Angels no longer have playoff aspirations since the Twins are in. The White Sox send out Dylan Covey, who is 0-7 in his 11 starts and six relief outings. You have to think that his teammates want to get him that first Major League win to salvage something out of his rookie season. I don’t know what the line will be here with a bullpen day for Anaheim, but the White Sox certainly have an enormous motivation edge. They haven’t been playing all that bad lately.