Tech Trends
MIAMI-FLA. at DUKE...Miami actually has three covers in a row vs. Duke, though Cutcliffe on 36-18-1 spread run. Canes 4-1 as road chalk LY, though Cutcliffe 6-1 last 7 as home dog.
Slight to Duke, based on Cutcliffe trends.
NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS...Riley’s only cover TY was thanks to Oregon sitting on 42-14 HT lead, that’s his only spread W last six since late LY. Riley 2-4 as road chalk with Huskers. Lovie, however, on 1-5 spread run, but Illini has covered past two seasons vs. Huskers.
Slight to Illinois, based on recent series trends.
BYU at UTAH STATE...Cougs off slowly TY, Sitake now on 0-5 spread slump since late 2016. But Cougs have thumped USU last two and 3 of last 4 meetings. Utags 6-15 last 20 on board since mid 2015.
Slight to BYU, based on recent series trends.
USC at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 9-3 last 12 as dog. Helton only 1-4 vs. line last five on board since late LY, only 3-9 last 12 vs. line away from Coliseum.
Washington State, based on team trends.
MIAMI-FLA. at DUKE...Miami actually has three covers in a row vs. Duke, though Cutcliffe on 36-18-1 spread run. Canes 4-1 as road chalk LY, though Cutcliffe 6-1 last 7 as home dog.
Slight to Duke, based on Cutcliffe trends.
NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS...Riley’s only cover TY was thanks to Oregon sitting on 42-14 HT lead, that’s his only spread W last six since late LY. Riley 2-4 as road chalk with Huskers. Lovie, however, on 1-5 spread run, but Illini has covered past two seasons vs. Huskers.
Slight to Illinois, based on recent series trends.
BYU at UTAH STATE...Cougs off slowly TY, Sitake now on 0-5 spread slump since late 2016. But Cougs have thumped USU last two and 3 of last 4 meetings. Utags 6-15 last 20 on board since mid 2015.
Slight to BYU, based on recent series trends.
USC at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 9-3 last 12 as dog. Helton only 1-4 vs. line last five on board since late LY, only 3-9 last 12 vs. line away from Coliseum.
Washington State, based on team trends.
Pro Picks
Record last week: 18-7 straight up; 10-15 against the spread.
Record this season: 70-20 straight up; 26-50-3 against the spread.
Upset specials: 2-2.
Best bets: 2-1.
No. 5 Southern California (minus 3 +) at No. 16 Washington State
So many reasons to pick the Cougars in an upset: USC is playing a second straight road game on a short week, with some key players banged up. Seems too obvious ... USC 30-28.
No. 14 Miami (minus 7) at Duke
The last time the Hurricanes played at Duke, the officials had a bad night and Miami came away with a bizarre victory ... MIAMI 31-21.
Record last week: 18-7 straight up; 10-15 against the spread.
Record this season: 70-20 straight up; 26-50-3 against the spread.
Upset specials: 2-2.
Best bets: 2-1.
No. 5 Southern California (minus 3 +) at No. 16 Washington State
So many reasons to pick the Cougars in an upset: USC is playing a second straight road game on a short week, with some key players banged up. Seems too obvious ... USC 30-28.
No. 14 Miami (minus 7) at Duke
The last time the Hurricanes played at Duke, the officials had a bad night and Miami came away with a bizarre victory ... MIAMI 31-21.
College football's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils (+5.5, 57)
Miami 3rd-down rate vs. Duke's 3rd-down defense
The Hurricanes have done plenty well on offense through their first two games, but would love to improve on a so-so showing on third downs - and that quest will be a challenging one this weekend, with the Blue Devils limiting drive extensions better than any team in Division I.
As great as things went in last week's 52-30 romp over Toledo, they could have gone even better had Miami not settled for a 3-for-9 performance on 3rd downs. It was a significant step down from the 4-of-8 showing the Hurricanes posted in their season-opening win over Bethune-Cookman.
That said, the four teams that have faced the Blue Devils this season will tell you just how tough it has been to make headway on third down.
Duke has allowed teams to avoid fourth down just seven times in 50 third-down attempts - a 14-percent success rate that ranks No. 1 in the nation. The Blue Devils were at their stingy best in their conference opener last week, holding North Carolina to a 3-for-16 success rate on third down in a 27-17 win over the Tar Heels.
Suffice to say that Miami has its work cut out for it.
NCAA football bettors looking at these teams very differently in Week 5: Live From Las Vegas
After some upset results in Week 4, college football bettors aren't so sure about these power programs and Las Vegas books are taking that shift into account when posting the NCAA football odds. We look at the biggest and best bets on the board with Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts.
Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils (+5.5, 57)
Miami 3rd-down rate vs. Duke's 3rd-down defense
The Hurricanes have done plenty well on offense through their first two games, but would love to improve on a so-so showing on third downs - and that quest will be a challenging one this weekend, with the Blue Devils limiting drive extensions better than any team in Division I.
As great as things went in last week's 52-30 romp over Toledo, they could have gone even better had Miami not settled for a 3-for-9 performance on 3rd downs. It was a significant step down from the 4-of-8 showing the Hurricanes posted in their season-opening win over Bethune-Cookman.
That said, the four teams that have faced the Blue Devils this season will tell you just how tough it has been to make headway on third down.
Duke has allowed teams to avoid fourth down just seven times in 50 third-down attempts - a 14-percent success rate that ranks No. 1 in the nation. The Blue Devils were at their stingy best in their conference opener last week, holding North Carolina to a 3-for-16 success rate on third down in a 27-17 win over the Tar Heels.
Suffice to say that Miami has its work cut out for it.
NCAA football bettors looking at these teams very differently in Week 5: Live From Las Vegas
After some upset results in Week 4, college football bettors aren't so sure about these power programs and Las Vegas books are taking that shift into account when posting the NCAA football odds. We look at the biggest and best bets on the board with Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts.
CFB Long Sheet
MIAMI (2 - 0) at DUKE (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEBRASKA (2 - 2) at ILLINOIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 81-123 ATS (-54.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 1-1 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BYU (1 - 3) at UTAH ST (2 - 2) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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USC (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIAMI (2 - 0) at DUKE (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEBRASKA (2 - 2) at ILLINOIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 81-123 ATS (-54.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 1-1 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BYU (1 - 3) at UTAH ST (2 - 2) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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USC (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CFB Trend Report
7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. DUKE
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Duke
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Duke
Duke is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Duke is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
8:00 PM
BYU vs. UTAH STATE
BYU is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
BYU is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing BYU
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games when playing BYU
8:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. ILLINOIS
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Nebraska's last 15 games
Nebraska is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Illinois's last 19 games at home
Illinois is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
10:30 PM
SOUTHERN CAL vs. WASHINGTON STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 5 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington State's last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
Washington State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Southern Cal
7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. DUKE
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Duke
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Duke
Duke is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Duke is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
8:00 PM
BYU vs. UTAH STATE
BYU is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
BYU is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing BYU
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games when playing BYU
8:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. ILLINOIS
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Nebraska's last 15 games
Nebraska is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Illinois's last 19 games at home
Illinois is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
10:30 PM
SOUTHERN CAL vs. WASHINGTON STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 5 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington State's last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
Washington State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Southern Cal
Zcode Baseball predictions Sept 29 – Oct 1
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Kansas City Royals
Taking a look at the teams in this inter league match up, playoff bound Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Kansas City Royals, looking to finish at .500. According to the Power Ranking Indicator, the Diamondbacks hold a +22 to +15 advantage. They also hold a +6.62 to -4.31 advantage in the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. Neither teams ranks in the top 10 in Team Volatility, therefore the favorite and underdog status will play a deciding factor in my predictions this week.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 29: Taijuan Walker versus Ian Kennedy
Walker comes in at 9-9 with a 3.54 ERA and is 0-2 over his last two decisions. Generally an excellent bet, Walker comes in high on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator at +1611. Kennedy has been moving quickly in the opposite direction, at 4-13 with a 5.50 ERA and 0-7 over the last ten starts. He’s been a terrible bet, at -1098 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Diamondbacks should easily take the first game.
Saturday, September 30: Patrick Corbin versus Jake Junis
Corbin has mediocre overall numbers at 14-13 with a 4.09 ERA and is 1-2 over the last four starts. He’s been up and down in terms of profit, currently at +554. Junis is also 1-2 over the last four and is 8-3 with a 4.39 ERA for the season. A decent bet overall, Junis is at +236 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Diamondbacks have the overall edge in team strength and on the mound in this one. Give game two to the Diamondbacks to go up 2-0 in the series.
Sunday, October 1: Zack Godley versus Jason Vargas
Godley is 8-9 with a 3.40 ERA for the season and has allowed only 124 hits in 153 1/3 innings. A good overall bet, Godley is +893 in terms of profit. Vargas is the Royals best overall starter, coming in at 18-10 with a 3.94 ERA. He’s been excellent lately, winning his last four decisions. He’s at +1816 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, up nearly 900 since the start of the season. I see the Royals winning the final game to avoid a sweep.
Houston Astros versus Boston Red Sox
In what could be a playoff preview, the Astros and Red Sox come in relatively evenly matched. The Red Sox hold a +29 to +24 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. The Astros hold a +5.43 to -0.4 advantage in the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. In what could be a deciding factor in picking these games, the Astros are third in Team Volatility. This means they generally win as the favorite and lose as the underdog.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 29: Charlie Morton versus Doug Fister
Morton comes in at 13-7 with a 3.63 ERA and is 3-1 in the last four games. He’s struck out 159 and allowed only 121 hits in 141 1/3 innings. Despite the good overall numbers, Morton has been a relatively poor bet, at -115 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Fister enters the game at 5-8 with a 4.87 ERA. Up and down in terms of profit, Fister is a poor bet at -260. The edge goes to the Astros and is my pick for the series opener.
Saturday, September 30: Lance McCullers Jr versus Drew Pomeranz
McCullers Jr has missed significant time due to injury as has allowed five earned runs in 8 2/3 innings since coming off the disabled list. Overall, he’s 7-3 with a 4.01 ERA and is at -230 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Pomeranz has better overall numbers with a record of 16-6 with a 3.38 ERA. However, in terms of a bet, he’s been terrible, at -1085 in terms of profit. The Astros don’t have the edge on paper in this one, but the wide difference in profit leans me towards Houston in game two.
Sunday, October 1: Collin McHugh versus Chris Sale
In the series and season finale, McHugh comes in at 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA. He’s won his last four decisions and has been profitable at +516 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Sale has been excellent this season, with a 17-8 record, 308 strikeouts and a 2.90 ERA. To my surprise, he’s been a very marginally profitable bet, at +8 on the profit oscillator. It’s hard to bet against Sale, so I take the Red Sox in the finale.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Kansas City Royals
Taking a look at the teams in this inter league match up, playoff bound Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Kansas City Royals, looking to finish at .500. According to the Power Ranking Indicator, the Diamondbacks hold a +22 to +15 advantage. They also hold a +6.62 to -4.31 advantage in the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. Neither teams ranks in the top 10 in Team Volatility, therefore the favorite and underdog status will play a deciding factor in my predictions this week.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 29: Taijuan Walker versus Ian Kennedy
Walker comes in at 9-9 with a 3.54 ERA and is 0-2 over his last two decisions. Generally an excellent bet, Walker comes in high on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator at +1611. Kennedy has been moving quickly in the opposite direction, at 4-13 with a 5.50 ERA and 0-7 over the last ten starts. He’s been a terrible bet, at -1098 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Diamondbacks should easily take the first game.
Saturday, September 30: Patrick Corbin versus Jake Junis
Corbin has mediocre overall numbers at 14-13 with a 4.09 ERA and is 1-2 over the last four starts. He’s been up and down in terms of profit, currently at +554. Junis is also 1-2 over the last four and is 8-3 with a 4.39 ERA for the season. A decent bet overall, Junis is at +236 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Diamondbacks have the overall edge in team strength and on the mound in this one. Give game two to the Diamondbacks to go up 2-0 in the series.
Sunday, October 1: Zack Godley versus Jason Vargas
Godley is 8-9 with a 3.40 ERA for the season and has allowed only 124 hits in 153 1/3 innings. A good overall bet, Godley is +893 in terms of profit. Vargas is the Royals best overall starter, coming in at 18-10 with a 3.94 ERA. He’s been excellent lately, winning his last four decisions. He’s at +1816 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, up nearly 900 since the start of the season. I see the Royals winning the final game to avoid a sweep.
Houston Astros versus Boston Red Sox
In what could be a playoff preview, the Astros and Red Sox come in relatively evenly matched. The Red Sox hold a +29 to +24 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. The Astros hold a +5.43 to -0.4 advantage in the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. In what could be a deciding factor in picking these games, the Astros are third in Team Volatility. This means they generally win as the favorite and lose as the underdog.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 29: Charlie Morton versus Doug Fister
Morton comes in at 13-7 with a 3.63 ERA and is 3-1 in the last four games. He’s struck out 159 and allowed only 121 hits in 141 1/3 innings. Despite the good overall numbers, Morton has been a relatively poor bet, at -115 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Fister enters the game at 5-8 with a 4.87 ERA. Up and down in terms of profit, Fister is a poor bet at -260. The edge goes to the Astros and is my pick for the series opener.
Saturday, September 30: Lance McCullers Jr versus Drew Pomeranz
McCullers Jr has missed significant time due to injury as has allowed five earned runs in 8 2/3 innings since coming off the disabled list. Overall, he’s 7-3 with a 4.01 ERA and is at -230 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Pomeranz has better overall numbers with a record of 16-6 with a 3.38 ERA. However, in terms of a bet, he’s been terrible, at -1085 in terms of profit. The Astros don’t have the edge on paper in this one, but the wide difference in profit leans me towards Houston in game two.
Sunday, October 1: Collin McHugh versus Chris Sale
In the series and season finale, McHugh comes in at 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA. He’s won his last four decisions and has been profitable at +516 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Sale has been excellent this season, with a 17-8 record, 308 strikeouts and a 2.90 ERA. To my surprise, he’s been a very marginally profitable bet, at +8 on the profit oscillator. It’s hard to bet against Sale, so I take the Red Sox in the finale.
