Sunday 10/01/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

 
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Over 46 Rams / Cowboys - RARE SITUATION: NFL Teams Off Thursday Night Football Win ( Rams) vs. Team off Monday Night Football ( Cowboys) OVER The Total 14-0 last 14. Rams leads NFL in PPG , near last in NFL Rushing Yards allowed. NFL Teams Rushing for> 140 yards per game = OVER. Look for Cowboys to get Rushing attack back on track at HOME. ( San Fran ( Off TNF / AZ Off MNF) = Same Situation. Not as excited about these 2 teams. Still something to be aware of. This only happens 4 times this year. Happened in Week 2 ( OVER WINNER) Twice this week. ONLY once rest of year! Good luck & Good winning!
 
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Since 2015 NFL Teams returning from London ( Ravens) 8-2 Straight Up / 9-0-1 ATS. Ravens + 3 at HOME. Line usually is Ravens -3 at Home vs. Steelers. Your getting better Defense & Points at Home and better Head Coach. Look for Ravens to get the OUTRIGHT WIN. Good luck & good winning!
 

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Pro Picks

No. 17 (tie) Los Angeles Rams (plus 7 1-2) at No. 5 Dallas

Rams seem to be putting together nice offense. We already know Dallas has one of those.

BEST BET: COWBOYS, 30-19

No. 11 Tennessee (minus 2) at No. 21 Houston

It's early, but Texans loss would be very damaging in division.

UPSET SPECIAL: TEXANS, 20-17

No. 24 New Orleans (minus 3) vs. No. 22 Miami at London

Rebound time for Dolphins after that New Jersey fiasco.

DOLPHINS, 23-21

No. 9 Pittsburgh (minus 2 1-2) at No. 14 Baltimore

Best rivalry in football, nasty and physical, but clean.

STEELERS, 20-13

No. 6 (tie) Oakland (plus 2 1-2) at No. 6 (tie) Denver

Both teams come off offensive stinkers.

RAIDERS, 26-21

No. 17 (tie) Carolina (plus 8) at No. 3 New England

Both teams come off defensive stinkers.

PATRIOTS, 36-23

No. 15 Jacksonville (minus 3 1-2) at No. 29 New York Jets

Road favorites destroyed us last week. We barely learned a lesson.

JAGUARS, 19-17

No. 19 Buffalo (plus 7 1-2) at No. 2 Atlanta

Falcons have escaped twice on road, but routed Green Bay at home.

FALCONS, 22-16

No. 26 New York Giants (plus 5) at No. 20 Tampa Bay

Just a feeling Giants aren't bad enough to be 0-4.

GIANTS, 17-13

No. 12 Philadelphia (pick-em) at No. 27 (tie) Los Angeles Chargers

Just a feeling Chargers aren't bad enough to be 0-4.

CHARGERS, 27-23

No. 27 Cincinnati (minus 3) at No. 32 Cleveland

Just a feeling Bengals aren't bad enough to be 0-4.

BENGALS, 21-20

No. 31 San Francisco (plus 7) at No. 23 Arizona

Just a feeling ... oh, never mind.

CARDINALS, 20-16

No. 30 Indianapolis (plus 13) at No. 16 Seattle

Until Andrew Luck is behind center, staying away from Colts doing anything special.

SEAHAWKS, 22-6

No. 6 (tie) Detroit (no line) at No. 10 Minnesota

Really like what we have seen from Lions thus far.

LIONS, 24-20

2017 RECORD:

Last week: Against spread (5-9-1). Straight up (8-8)

Season Totals: Against spread (18-27-1). Straight up: (29-18)

Best Bet: 2-1 against spread, 2-1 straight up.

Upset special: 3-0 against spread, 3-0 straight up
 

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Tech Trends

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS vs. MIAMI at Wembley Stadium, London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)

Saints 10-2 vs. line last 12 away from Superdome. NO also “over” 31-20 since 2014, Dolphins “over” 12-6 since LY.
Tech Edge: Saints and "over," based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Cam 5-1 as road dog since 2014, also 9-2 overall last 11 as dog. Belichick “over” last seven since late 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rams improved but still only 1-2 vs. line TY. Dallas on 3-7 spread skid since late 2016. Rams “over” first 3 and five straight since late 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over’ and slight to Rams, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Lions won and covered both vs. Vikes LY. Vikes “over” 6-1 last seven.
Tech Edge: Lions and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Texans had won five in a row SU and six in a row vs. line in series until losing reg.-season finale LY. O’Brien 10-6-1 vs. spread at home in reg. season since 2014. Also “under” 11-5 last 16 reg. season at NRG Stadium. But Mularkey “over” 8-3 last 11 away and series “over” 5-1 last six.
Tech Edge: Slight to Texans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Jags haven’t been road chalk since 2011! Jax “over” 23-12 last 35.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on Jags "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Cincy has won and covered last five meetings and most have been thumpers, closest margin 13. “Under” 6-2 last eight meetings. Hue Jackson just 2-7 as home dog and 5-14 overall vs. spread since LY. Cincy “under” 9-1 last 10 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Bengals, based on “totals” and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Ravens have now covered last three and 4-1-1 vs. line last six in competitive series, have also beaten Steel SU last four at M&T Bank Stadium. Steel “under” 10-2 last 12 on reg.-season road.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Ravens, based on ”totals” and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Falcs “over” 18-4 since LY, but 4-10 as home chalk since 2015 in regular season.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Bills, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Eli "under” 9-2 last 11 reg. season. Bucs 2-8 last ten home chalk.
Tech Edge: Giants and "under,"” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at L.A. CHARGERS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Bolts 4-12 vs. spread last 15 as host (Qualcomm & StubHub). Birds only 2-7 vs. line away since LY. Birds “over” 10-2 last 12 away.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

49ers winless SU TY but are 2-1 vs. line for Shanahan and have covered 4 of last 5 since late LY. Cards only 6-11 as home chalk in reg season since late 2014.
Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Broncs 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5 at home vs. Raiders, but Oakland 9-2 last 11 as road reg. season dog. Denver "over" 5-2 last 7 as host, Raiders "over" 12-6 into last Sunday.
Tech Edge: Raiders and "over", based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at SEATTLE (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Seahawks only 4-9 vs. points last 13 in reg. season. Indy was 7-4-1 as road dog entering TY but much of that with Andrew Luck.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on team trends.
 

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NFL Opening Line Report:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+2)

These two teams are coming off stunning losses in Week 3, heading into this clash of NFC North rivals at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Pittsburgh, among the favorites to challenge New England for the AFC title, was on the road for the second time in three weeks and had another substandard showing against a subpar outfit. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) lost to Chicago 23-17 in overtime as a 7-point favorite.

It was arguably much worse for Baltimore, especially since the flight home was far longer. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Jacksonville’s second home – London – as a 3-point favorite and left on the very short end of a 44-7 trampling.

“The public doesn’t want to bet on Baltimore. The offense is mundane, and the squares don’t like to bet on good defenses,” Cooley said. “At some point, we’ll probably see some value players get behind a Ravens team that was absolutely embarrassed. The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too.”

Indeed, the number bumped to Steelers -2.5 Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-8)

New England has played two games at home this season and is fortunate to have split those contests. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got all they could handle from Houston on Sunday, needing a last-minute Tom Brady-to-Brandin Cooks 25-yard touchdown pass to post a 36-33 win as a heavy 13.5-point home chalk.

Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen to a broken foot in Week 2, and the hits kept coming in Week 3 as Kelvin Benjamin left in the first half with a knee injury. Benjamin’s injury is not thought to be serious, but the Panthers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got drubbed by New Orleans 34-13 as a 5-point home fave.

“We were certainly going to be north of a touchdown, and this one could shoot up sooner rather than later,” Cooley said of the line for Panthers-Pats. “It will be interesting to see if the Panthers can get out of their offensive funk.”

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (no line)

Both these AFC West rivals were road favorites in Week 3 and ended up on the short side, on the scoreboard and for bettors. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) had its roll slowed at Washington in a 27-20 loss as a 3.5-point favorite, while Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) – coming off an impressive home win over Dallas – looked unimpressive in a 26-16 loss at Buffalo laying 3.5 points.

Since Oakland was in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu held off on setting a line, though Cooley had an opinion.

“Look for the Broncos to be short chalk at home,” he said. “Denver certainly has a distinct advantage at Mile High, but our ratings have the Raiders a few spots higher in the pecking order.”

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Kansas City is looking a lot like the team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season last year. For the second time in three weeks, the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) won and cashed on the road, this time besting the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10 as a 3-point chalk.

Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) also looked plenty sharp in Week 3, knocking off Oakland 27-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog in the Sunday night contest.

“Again, we’ll make sure nothing significant occurs regarding injuries with Washington, but Kansas City will be a healthy favorite regardless,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs look to be one of the best teams in the league early in this season, and bettors are taking notice. We’ll open K.C. as 6- to 7-point chalk.”

Indeed, when the line opened for this Monday night contest it hit the board with the Chiefs installed as 7-point home favorites
 

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 4 NFL lines are going to move

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-4)

Has a team ever stayed in the locker room for the national anthem and then decided not to come out for the game? It may be getting close to that point for the 0-3 Giants, who had hopes of making the NFC East into a two-team race with the Cowboys and now are rotting at the bottom of the division.

The main problem for the Giants is that they can’t score (fewest points in the conference), and the main problem for the offense it that it can’t move the ball on the ground. At all. New York broke out with 24 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia on Sunday, but had scored only 13 total in the previous 11 periods.

An 0-3 hole is bad enough, but 0-4 is toxic for a team that was thinking division title less than a month ago.

Game to wait on

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+2.5)

Seems like every game these teams have played for the last decade has featured a line in the 2.5 to 3.5-point range. This one is no different.

Neither team has shown enough to be considered the early favorite to be the alpha dog in the AFC North, and the Ravens in particular are wondering what hit them in London last Sunday when the Jags put a 37-point beating on them. Baltimore is not that used to those types of beatdowns. Ravens fans have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Joe Flacco, who threw for just 28 yards on Sunday and was picked twice before giving way to Ryan Mallett.

Maybe the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Steelers’ shaky defense, which gave up 220 of their own on the ground in losing to the Bears.

Might be worth waiting on this one to see if any early money surge causes the books to budge on the half-point one way or the other.

Total to watch

Buffalo at Atlanta (48.5)

Interesting study in contrasts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, where the high-flying Falcons are off to a 3-0 start and hope to start creating a little separation in the NFC South. The Falcons have shrugged off their Super Bowl loss and again boast one of the best offense in the league.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-1 and doing it with defense. Two of their games have gone under, and Sunday’s victory over Denver barely covered the minuscule 40 posted by books. Buffalo has a very soft schedule after this one, and doesn’t have to face the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots until December.
 

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NFL Trend Report

NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) vs. MIAMI (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

____________________________________________________________

CAROLINA (2 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-78 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (2 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-178 ATS (-69.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 3) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
 

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10:30 AM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

2:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. ATLANTA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DALLAS
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

5:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing NY Giants

5:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games

5:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

9:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
 

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

Jaguars' red-zone success vs. Jets' leaky downfield D

Two teams that outscored their opponents by a combined 51 points in Week 3 will lock horns this weekend as the New York Jets entertain Jacksonville. The Jaguars were the surprise of the weekend, rolling to a 44-7 throttling of the Baltimore Ravens in London, while the Jets stunned the football world by cruising to a 20-6 triumph over Miami. Jacksonville has the edge in this one according to oddsmakers, due at least in part to a sensational red-zone record through the first three weeks of the season.

Jacksonville came into the season facing serious question marks on offense, but quarterback Blake Bortles and rookie running back Leonard Fournette have put those concerns to rest - at least for now. The Jaguars come into Week 4 having scored touchdowns on two-thirds of their drives into the red-zone - putting them in the top third league-wide. Bortles already has six TD passes on the young season, while Fournette has three rushing scores to kick off his NFL career.

The Jets dominated play from start to finish against the Dolphins last week, surrendering only a last-second touchdown catch from DeVante Parker. But things haven't been so rosy overall, with New York surrendering touchdowns on 77.8 percent of opponent visits to the red zone. It's among the worst marks on the season, and represents a significant step back after the Jets allowed red-zone TDs on 56.9 percent of opponent red-zone trips in 2016.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 43)

Steelers' second-half stinginess vs. Ravens' reeling offense

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are both coming off stunning losses - and are looking for answers as they face off Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers lost a 23-17 overtime stunner to the Chicago Bears, while the Ravens were on the wrong end of a Jacksonville scoring spree overseas. This one is expected to be close - and that favors the Steelers, who have been one of the toughest teams to score against in the second half of games.

The Steelers were burned by a Jordan Howard rushing score in OT, but prior to that they had dominated teams after the half. Pittsburgh has allowed a paltry 17 points in the third and fourth quarters of their first three games of 2017, with the 5.7 second-half points per game against representing the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Steelers have been even more impressive over the past two contests, allowing a combined six points in the third and fourth quarters against Minnesota and Chicago.

That bodes poorly for a Baltimore offense that has come out of the halftime break a slumbering mess to start the year. The Ravens have scored a combined 13 points in the second half of their first three games, with seven of those coming on a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Jacksonville loss. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been the biggest culprit, amassing just 84 passing yards in the second half of two-plus games; he was pulled in London in favor of Ryan Mallett.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)

Titans' elite pass protection vs. Texans' leaky O-line

The Tennessee Titans' offense has come alive after a slow start to the season, and Marcus Mariota and Co. will look to carry that momentum into Sunday's AFC South encounter with the Houston Texans. Tennessee has scored 70 combined points in victories over the Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, and will look to tame another impressive defense on the strength of an offensive line that has managed to give Mariota all the time he needs to burn the opposition.

Tennessee boasted a top-12 pass protection unit last season, limiting foes to a 5.26 percent sack rate. Things have been a whole lot better through the first three weeks of the 2017 campaign, with Mariota going down on just 1.96 percent of dropbacks - the best rate in football. Blessed with more clean pockets than any starting quarterback in the NFL, Mariota has taken full advantage, completing 60 percent of his passes for 696 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception.

Rookie Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would probably give anything for protection like that. Unfortunately, he finds himself at the other end of the spectrum; Houston is surrendering sacks on a whopping 13.89 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in the league. And while many of those sacks were allowed in a season-opening loss to the Jaguars, the five sacks allowed per game is still miles ahead of the 1.9 mark Houston posted a season ago.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

Eagles' elite time of possession vs. Chargers' TOP turmoil

With Chip Kelly at the helm, the Philadelphia Eagles were perennially one of the worst teams in the NFL in time of possession. But this is a new team - and with it, a new set of habits as the Eagles look to take charge of a competitive NFC East with a win over the host Chargers. Philadelphia is off to a sensational start on offense, and will look to control the play against a Chargers team that hasn't had the ball nearly as much as it would like through the first three weeks of 2017.

With top-10 rankings in both passing (252.7) and rushing yards per game (119.3), it's easy to see why the Eagles have been able to control the ball so effectively. Philadelphia's 34:12 time-of-possession average ranks 12 seconds ahead of the runner-up Carolina Panthers; that's nothing new to the Eagles, who led the league in that category a season ago after finishing dead last in each of the previous three seasons.

The Chargers finished with a modest edge in time of possession last season (30:21), but will be hard-pressed to match that success in 2017. Los Angeles comes into the week ranked among the league's bottom feeders at just 27:19 per game. After ranking 26th in rushing yards per game a season ago, the Chargers are 27th through three games - and at a woeful 30.3-percent conversion rate on third down, Los Angeles isn't extending drives, either. A similar effort Sunday could lead to a one-sided TOP result.
 
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TN Titans are 0-10-1 ATS vs. teams off a LOSS. TN also 3-18 Straight Up on DIVISION ROAD. HO lost Division HOME game vs. Jack week 1. HO cannot afford to lose 2 at HOME in DIVISION. Good luck & Good winning. We have the HOME DOG & best Defense. Public is on TN Titans.
 
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The most overlooked great Home Field advantage in the NFL is the Minnesota Vikings. ( Rated better then Heinz Field - Steelers) Vikings are 12- 1 ATS vs. opponents coming off a Home Game. Back Up QB Case Keenum will be under center and his surrounding cast at HOME will do just fine. Vikings offense is rated # 2 only behind Patriots at 400 Total yards per game. Here is the thing, Detroit QB Stafford is 2-26 last 28 ROAD games , won last ROAD game at Giants. Can he win 2 in a row on the ROAD after going 2-26? We like Minnesota - 2 at HOME. Public is on the Lions. Good luck & good winning. We have the much better defense to boot!
 

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Zcode NFL WEEK 4 fade-the-public picks and predictions

Sweep! 3-0 ATS in Week 3 which improves our YTD to 7-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 4. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/26) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.


JACKSONVILLE @ NEW YORK JETS
While the Jets quietly beat a bad Dolphins team, the public took notice as Jacksonville dominated Baltimore in London.

It’s always tough to play the next week after being in London and the Jets will be looking to carry the momentum from their first win of the season into this week. Let’s take New York +3.5 (BetOnline)


CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND
The Panthers were awful last week against the Saints and the Patriots were able to sneak away with a close win over Houston. As always, New England is a huge public favorite:

While Carolina has been struggling offensively all season, New England has historically had problems with mobile quarterbacks and this could be the game that Cam Newton breaks out. With such one-sided action we are able to get a solid underdog at a great number. Let’s take Carolina +10 (5Dimes)


TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON
We’re going to take a little different strategy with this game. The Titans are coming off a huge win over Seattle while Houston hung tough but came up short against New England. I think there will be some separation in the percentages but as of now the public is relatively split.

I think Houston is the sharp side and catching this line early will allow us to get a few points. The Texans return home after a tough loss while the Titans are in a potential letdown spot. Let’s take Houston +2(Bookmaker)


Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
 

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Soccer

Germany - Bundesliga

12pm ET

Cologne v RB Leipzig

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Last Head-To-Heads at Cologne:
1-1

Recent Form:
Cologne: 0-5-1
Leipzig: 2-2-2

KEY STAT: Cologne have scored one goal in their last six matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Cologne fans will attempt to up the noise level just like Besiktas in a bid to perturb Timo Werner and pals, because it’s hard to see any other edges they might have. A 0-0 draw at Hannover after five straight Bundesliga defeats has at least got them on the board, but having played in Europe on Thursday night – and lost – this test comes around very soon.

RECOMMENDATION: Leipzig (1)
 

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Soccer

Belgium - Division 1

12pm ET

Anderlecht v St Liege

Referee: Lawrence Visser

Last Head-To-Heads at Anderlecht:
0-0
3-3
1-1
0-2 (St Liege win)

Recent Form:
Anderlecht: 2-2-2
St. Liege: 1-3-2

KEY STAT: Standard Liege have lost just one of their last eight meetings with Anderlecht

EXPERT VERDICT: Champions Anderlecht are stalling in their title defence and are tough to trust at skinny odds after Wednesday's 3-0 capitulation at home to Celtic. The managerless hosts are already nine points off the pace and, having shipped five times in their last two home league games against Sint-Truiden and Lokeren, may find Standard Liege matching them in Brussels.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
 

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Soccer

Italy - Serie A

12pm ET

Milan v Roma

Referee: Luca Banti

Last Head-To-Heads at Milan:
1-4 (Roma Win)
1-3 (Roma win)
2-1 (Milan win)
2-2

Recent Form:
Milan: 4-2
Roma: 4-1-1

KEY STAT: Milan have kept one clean sheet in their last seven fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Roma are back in contention in Champions League Group C after a 2-1 success away to Qarabag on Wednesday and they can stay close to the Serie A pace-setters by beating Milan at San Siro. Milan have been plagued by inconsistency in recent seasons and last week's 2-0 loss at Sampdoria would suggest they still have a lot of work to do.

RECOMMENDATION: Roma (1)
 

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Soccer

Spain - La Liga

1230pm ET

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao

Referee: Alejandro Jose Hernandez

Last Head-To-Heads at Valencia:
2-0 (Valencia win)
2-1 (Valencia win)
0-3 (Ath. Bilbao win)
0-0

Recent Form:
Valencia: 3-0-3
Ath. Bilbao: 1-3-2

KEY STAT: Valencia have yet to concede a home goal in three games this term

EXPERT VERDICT: Unbeaten in their first seven in La Liga and Europa League, Athletic are now without a win in five, and even against lowly Malaga’s ten men last weekend could only muster a draw. Valencia, in contrast, are still unbeaten and since they’ve played both Madrid giants, it suggests their position in the table doesn’t flatter them.

RECOMMENDATION: Valencia (2)
 

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Portugal - Premier League

Sporting Lisbon v Porto

Last Head-To-Heads at Sporting Lisbon:
2-1 (Lisbon win)
2-0 (Lisbon win)
1-1
1-0 (Lisbon win)

Recent Form:
Sporting Lisbon: 4-1-1
Porto: 5-1

KEY STAT: Porto haven't won at Sporting since 2008

EXPERT VERDICT: Porto are a perfect seven from seven in the Portuguese top-flight but could see their 100 per cent league record end when they travel to Lisbon to face title rivals Sporting. There’s little to separate the sides in terms of ability but Sporting are a formidable force on their own patch - they have lost just three of their last 54 home league games - and were beaten only 1-0 by visiting giants Barcelona in the Champions League on Wednesday.

RECOMMENDATION: Sporting Lisbon (2)
 

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Soccer

Italy - Serie A

2:45pm ET

Atalanta v Juventus

Last Head-To-Heads at Atalanta:
2-2
0-2 (Juventus win)
0-3 (Juventus win)
1-4 (Juventus win)

Recent Form;
Atalanta: 3-0-3
Juventus: 5-1

KEY STAT: Juventus have won their last eight league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Atalanta look like they are going to have another good season but it will be tough for them to halt the progress of Serie A leaders Juventus, who have maximum points after six games. Atalanta had to put a lot of effort into Thursday's 1-1 draw at Lyon and may not be at their best for the visit of the champions.

RECOMMENDATION: Juventus (1)
 

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Best Bets - Week 4 Sides

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: L.A Chargers -1 (-113)


The Chargers are the only winless squad laying points (outside of that Cincinnati/Cleveland game) this week as they are at home against the Eagles. This is the third straight game at home for L.A, and while they don't exactly have much of a home-field advantage in their new digs, a third straight game at home provides a level of comfort where they should be able to halt this disastrous start.

Had the Chargers young rookie kicker made a couple more kicks late in games, L.A could be sitting at 2-1 SU this week and many bettors are quick to forget that. But we've already seen plenty of support for the Chargers from the big bettors who like to get out ahead of the pack each week by backing L.A at about a 55% clip and flipping the spread from San Diego +1.5 to it's current number of -1. When teams flip flop as favorites it's something I always take note of, and in this case I believe it's extremely warranted. L.A has to find a way to win this game if they want any chance of rebounding in 2017 as their schedule becomes much tougher over the next seven weeks.

L.A is also catching a Philly team who is coming off a dramatic last-second win over a hated division rival and spent most of their season on the road so far. The Eagles opened up with games @Washington and @KC before hosting the Giants last week and now have to go cross-country for this game against L.A. Sooner or later all that travel catches up with a team.

Finally, non-conference road games tend to be the “least” important games (for lack of a better word) for NFL franchises. Aside from the W/L aspect of it, they don't necessarily mean a whole lot in terms of tiebreaking purposes down the road, and they damn sure aren't as important as divisional games. Last week alone we saw three such franchises in the same spot Philly is in this week (on the road against non-conference opponent) and they finished with a combined 0-3 SU and ATS mark. It's not like they are bad teams either, as Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Oakland all fell victim to this tough scheduling spot a week ago.

With the Eagles just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road, and the Chargers on a 4-0 ATS run after losing by double digits at home, I've got no problem laying this small chalk despite the fact L.A has yet to win in 2017.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #2: Cleveland Browns +3 (+102)


Personally I'd rather wait until closer to kickoff or even buy a half-point to get +3.5 on the Browns, but I could easily see them win this game outright against a Bengals team that's on the brink of a mutiny. Cincinnati had high hopes for 2017, but horrible performances the first two weeks cost them their OC, and it feels like it's only a matter of time before Marvin Lewis – who's held is position for way too long – gets canned.

Cincinnati does get LB Vontaze Burfict back after his suspension, but for all the good he can do, there is usually a very costly play or decision he makes as well. But the defense isn't really Cincinnati's biggest problem this year as the offense has been anaemic on the whole, and even when they got their first lead of the year last week against the Packers, they went into a shell with their play-calling, tried to desperately hold on, and ended up falling short. That's a fundamental flaw that comes from the top, and Bengals fans will tell you that it's been Marvin's MO for the better part of his tenure in Cincinnati. With Lewis having been around so long, it appears his message is completely lost on his players this year and this is a team that shouldn't be laying points on the road against anyone with the fragile mental state this organization is currently in.

Cleveland, for all it's youth and inexperience, appears to be on the upswing finally after some brutal years in recent memory. They are a team nobody is looking to back at a high clip this week – VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show about 80% of the bets on Cincinnati so far – as the perceptions of year's past for both clubs actually, are likely a driving force behind all that Bengals support. Yet, Cleveland hung tough against Pittsburgh in their only other home game this year, and while they are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five against the Bengals, this is the year where things actually look more chaotic and hopeless on the Bengals sideline than the Browns sideline, relative to expectations.

The Browns have to also be viewing these next two weeks as a great opportunity to get on a “winning streak” for the first time in years with the New York Jets coming to town in Week 5. They are a team that is not going to go into a “shell” with a lead as they've got rookie Deshone Kizer at QB, knowing that he'll make a few mistakes but also has the ability to make up for them down the line.

Also, Browns HC Hue Jackson came from this Bengals organization, and it would be quite fitting that a former Bengals assistant coach beats Cincinnati to finally cost Marvin his job after the Bengals have watched a handful of co-ordinators get head coaching positions after being successful under Lewis in Cincinnati the past few years.

So I've got no problem going against the grain in a spot like this as the Browns are more than capable of winning this game outright against a Bengals team that's in complete disarray right now and are probably one more bad loss away from a complete organizational shake-up.
 

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