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Monday 10/02/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Pro Picks
No. 13 Washington (plus 7) at No. 1 Kansas City, Monday night
Redskins might be better than we thought, can prove a lot here.
CHIEFS, 24-23
2017 RECORD:
Last week: Against spread (5-9-1). Straight up (8-8)
Season Totals: Against spread (18-27-1). Straight up: (29-18)
Best Bet: 2-1 against spread, 2-1 straight up.
Upset special: 3-0 against spread, 3-0 straight up
No. 13 Washington (plus 7) at No. 1 Kansas City, Monday night
Redskins might be better than we thought, can prove a lot here.
CHIEFS, 24-23
2017 RECORD:
Last week: Against spread (5-9-1). Straight up (8-8)
Season Totals: Against spread (18-27-1). Straight up: (29-18)
Best Bet: 2-1 against spread, 2-1 straight up.
Upset special: 3-0 against spread, 3-0 straight up
Tech Trends
MONDAY, OCT. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at KANSAS CITY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)[/B]
Into last Sunday, Jay Gruden 15-7 vs. line last 22 reg season games, 8-2 last ten as road dog. Also “over” 18-5 last 23 since late 2015. Andy Reid only 4-8 last 12 as Arrowhead chalk.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
MONDAY, OCT. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at KANSAS CITY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)[/B]
Into last Sunday, Jay Gruden 15-7 vs. line last 22 reg season games, 8-2 last ten as road dog. Also “over” 18-5 last 23 since late 2015. Andy Reid only 4-8 last 12 as Arrowhead chalk.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NFL
WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period
WASHINGTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Washington8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
WASHINGTON @ KANSAS CITY
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period
WASHINGTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Washington8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
WASHINGTON @ KANSAS CITY
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
NFL Week 4
Redskins (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0) — Washington outgained Raiders 472-128 last Sunday night; they are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdog, 10-7 in game following its last 17 wins; over is 13-4 in Redskins’ last 17 road games. Chiefs are off to 3-0 start, they’re 14-17 as a home favorite under Reid; they’ve run ball for 162 yards/game so far, unusual for a Reid team. Thee of their last five TD drives were less than 45 yards. KC is +5 in turnovers their last two games. Skins allowed only 60.7 rushing yards/game so far this season. KC won last six series games; their last loss to Redskins was in 1983. Washington is 0-4 in Arrowhead, losing by 7-19-21-7 points. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC East teams are 3-3.
Redskins (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0) — Washington outgained Raiders 472-128 last Sunday night; they are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdog, 10-7 in game following its last 17 wins; over is 13-4 in Redskins’ last 17 road games. Chiefs are off to 3-0 start, they’re 14-17 as a home favorite under Reid; they’ve run ball for 162 yards/game so far, unusual for a Reid team. Thee of their last five TD drives were less than 45 yards. KC is +5 in turnovers their last two games. Skins allowed only 60.7 rushing yards/game so far this season. KC won last six series games; their last loss to Redskins was in 1983. Washington is 0-4 in Arrowhead, losing by 7-19-21-7 points. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC East teams are 3-3.
MNF - Redskins at Chiefs
LAST WEEK
The Redskins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) put together a terrific effort in dispatching the Raiders as 3½-point home underdogs, 27-10 last Sunday night. Following a loss in the season opener to Philadelphia, Washington has posted back-to-back victories, as quarterback Kirk Cousins torched the Oakland defense for 365 yards and three touchdown passes. Running back Chris Thompson only racked up 38 yards on the ground, but accumulated 150 yards receiving, including a 22-yard touchdown catch from Cousins.
Washington’s defense shut down Derek Carr and the Raiders by forcing three turnovers, including a pair of interceptions. Oakland managed only 128 yards, a radically different defensive effort after allowing over 330 yards in each of the first two weeks against Philadelphia and Los Angeles. The Redskins improved to 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the underdog role since Week 3 of the 2015 season, while picking up their first victory at FedEx Field since Week 11 against Green Bay last season.
The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are off to their first 3-0 start since Andy Reid’s first season as head coach back in 2013. Kansas City pulled away from Los Angeles, 24-10 to cash as three-point road favorites in Week 3. The Chiefs built an early 14-0 lead, but the Chargers crept back to cut the deficit to 17-10 at halftime. Only seven points were scored in the second half, thanks to a 69-yard touchdown run by rookie standout Kareem Hunt, who finished with 172 yards on 17 carries.
Kansas City beat Los Angeles for the seventh straight time since 2014, while intercepting Philip Rivers three times. Quarterback Alex Smith has yet to commit a turnover as he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 7/0, although he owns only one 300-yard passing game, coming in the season opening victory at New England (368 yards).
NOT SO STRAIGHT ARROWS
The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL, but Kansas City has not helped backers the last few seasons at Arrowhead Stadium. From 2015 through 2016, the Chiefs posted a 5-11 ATS as a home favorite, but won 11 of those 16 games. Kansas City managed a cover as four-point favorites in a Week 2 win over Philadelphia, 27-20, but is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against NFC opponents.
ROAD WARRIORS
Washington has been impressive on the highway since getting blown out at Carolina in November 2015. The Redskins are riding an 8-3-1 run away from FedEx Field in the past 12 road games, including covers against Baltimore and Cincinnati. Amazingly, Jay Gruden’s squad is 8-1 ATS in its last nine opportunities as a road ‘dog, while eclipsing the OVER in each of their past three games prior to the bye week.
TOTAL TALK
The Redskins have hit the OVER in both road contests this season, while riding a seven-game OVER streak away from FedEx Field since Week 8 against Cincinnati in 2016. The Chiefs cashed their first UNDER against the Chargers following a pair of OVERS the first two weeks, while finishing UNDER the total in seven of the past nine games at Arrowhead Stadium.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chiefs have captured each of the past six matchups with the Redskins dating back to 1992, as Kansas City destroyed Washington in the previous meeting in D.C. in 2013 by a 45-10 count. Kansas City jumped out to a 31-0 lead and cruised as Smith threw two touchdown passes, while Jamaal Charles rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins are making their first trip to eastern Missouri since 2005 as they fell to the Chiefs, 28-21 as 6½-point underdogs. The last time the Redskins beat the Chiefs came way back in 1983 at RFK Stadium.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down the bulk of the Chiefs’ success early on, “Hunt leads the NFL in rushing, replacing Spencer Ware who was injured in the preseason. Hunt was a third round pick out of Toledo, so he certainly expected to have promise, but few could have pegged him as clearly the most impactful rookie so far this season. He has gained 8.5 yards per attempt since fumbling on his very first carry in Week 1 at New England. The Chiefs lead the NFL by a wide margin in both rushing yards per game (162.0) and per attempt (6.8 ) with the per attempt number truly outrageous, with Tennessee the only team in the NFL even within two yards of that average.”
The Redskins’ defense will challenge the Kansas City running game according to Nelson, “Washington has allowed just 272 yards per game this season for the fifth best average in the NFL, following finishing as the 5th-worst team in total defense in 2016. Washington has allowed just 62.3 yards per game on the ground, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry as the Chiefs will be tested this week. Washington’s dominant Sunday night showing against Oakland last week is skewing the numbers a bit, but Greg Manusky has done a great job so far in his first season as defensive coordinator.”
Handicapper Vince Akins breaks down a ‘dog trend that supports Washington on Monday night, “The Redskins are 9-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a dog of at least three points, which includes a 7-1-1 SU record.” From a totals standpoint, the Chiefs are in an UNDER spot by going 14-0 to the UNDER (-12.9 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 at home coming off a game as a favorite where they covered but by fewer than 27 points.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Not a lot happening on the spread side of things for this Monday Night Football affair, which means we put out a good number. Only square money thus far, and almost 65 percent of that is on the Chiefs. We’ve adjusted the total a half point up based on a bit of sharp action, but I don’t think it gets any higher, and it will likely drop below the opener as we get closer to kickoff.”
LAST WEEK
The Redskins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) put together a terrific effort in dispatching the Raiders as 3½-point home underdogs, 27-10 last Sunday night. Following a loss in the season opener to Philadelphia, Washington has posted back-to-back victories, as quarterback Kirk Cousins torched the Oakland defense for 365 yards and three touchdown passes. Running back Chris Thompson only racked up 38 yards on the ground, but accumulated 150 yards receiving, including a 22-yard touchdown catch from Cousins.
Washington’s defense shut down Derek Carr and the Raiders by forcing three turnovers, including a pair of interceptions. Oakland managed only 128 yards, a radically different defensive effort after allowing over 330 yards in each of the first two weeks against Philadelphia and Los Angeles. The Redskins improved to 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the underdog role since Week 3 of the 2015 season, while picking up their first victory at FedEx Field since Week 11 against Green Bay last season.
The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are off to their first 3-0 start since Andy Reid’s first season as head coach back in 2013. Kansas City pulled away from Los Angeles, 24-10 to cash as three-point road favorites in Week 3. The Chiefs built an early 14-0 lead, but the Chargers crept back to cut the deficit to 17-10 at halftime. Only seven points were scored in the second half, thanks to a 69-yard touchdown run by rookie standout Kareem Hunt, who finished with 172 yards on 17 carries.
Kansas City beat Los Angeles for the seventh straight time since 2014, while intercepting Philip Rivers three times. Quarterback Alex Smith has yet to commit a turnover as he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 7/0, although he owns only one 300-yard passing game, coming in the season opening victory at New England (368 yards).
NOT SO STRAIGHT ARROWS
The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL, but Kansas City has not helped backers the last few seasons at Arrowhead Stadium. From 2015 through 2016, the Chiefs posted a 5-11 ATS as a home favorite, but won 11 of those 16 games. Kansas City managed a cover as four-point favorites in a Week 2 win over Philadelphia, 27-20, but is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against NFC opponents.
ROAD WARRIORS
Washington has been impressive on the highway since getting blown out at Carolina in November 2015. The Redskins are riding an 8-3-1 run away from FedEx Field in the past 12 road games, including covers against Baltimore and Cincinnati. Amazingly, Jay Gruden’s squad is 8-1 ATS in its last nine opportunities as a road ‘dog, while eclipsing the OVER in each of their past three games prior to the bye week.
TOTAL TALK
The Redskins have hit the OVER in both road contests this season, while riding a seven-game OVER streak away from FedEx Field since Week 8 against Cincinnati in 2016. The Chiefs cashed their first UNDER against the Chargers following a pair of OVERS the first two weeks, while finishing UNDER the total in seven of the past nine games at Arrowhead Stadium.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chiefs have captured each of the past six matchups with the Redskins dating back to 1992, as Kansas City destroyed Washington in the previous meeting in D.C. in 2013 by a 45-10 count. Kansas City jumped out to a 31-0 lead and cruised as Smith threw two touchdown passes, while Jamaal Charles rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins are making their first trip to eastern Missouri since 2005 as they fell to the Chiefs, 28-21 as 6½-point underdogs. The last time the Redskins beat the Chiefs came way back in 1983 at RFK Stadium.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down the bulk of the Chiefs’ success early on, “Hunt leads the NFL in rushing, replacing Spencer Ware who was injured in the preseason. Hunt was a third round pick out of Toledo, so he certainly expected to have promise, but few could have pegged him as clearly the most impactful rookie so far this season. He has gained 8.5 yards per attempt since fumbling on his very first carry in Week 1 at New England. The Chiefs lead the NFL by a wide margin in both rushing yards per game (162.0) and per attempt (6.8 ) with the per attempt number truly outrageous, with Tennessee the only team in the NFL even within two yards of that average.”
The Redskins’ defense will challenge the Kansas City running game according to Nelson, “Washington has allowed just 272 yards per game this season for the fifth best average in the NFL, following finishing as the 5th-worst team in total defense in 2016. Washington has allowed just 62.3 yards per game on the ground, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry as the Chiefs will be tested this week. Washington’s dominant Sunday night showing against Oakland last week is skewing the numbers a bit, but Greg Manusky has done a great job so far in his first season as defensive coordinator.”
Handicapper Vince Akins breaks down a ‘dog trend that supports Washington on Monday night, “The Redskins are 9-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a dog of at least three points, which includes a 7-1-1 SU record.” From a totals standpoint, the Chiefs are in an UNDER spot by going 14-0 to the UNDER (-12.9 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 at home coming off a game as a favorite where they covered but by fewer than 27 points.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Not a lot happening on the spread side of things for this Monday Night Football affair, which means we put out a good number. Only square money thus far, and almost 65 percent of that is on the Chiefs. We’ve adjusted the total a half point up based on a bit of sharp action, but I don’t think it gets any higher, and it will likely drop below the opener as we get closer to kickoff.”
MNF Betting Preview: Washington at Kansas City
Washington at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
Washington vies for their second straight dominating prime-time performance against an AFC West opponent on Monday night when they face the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Washington handed the Oakland Raiders their first loss of the season under the lights on Sunday night, forcing three turnovers and limiting Derek Carr. and Co. to just 128 total yards of offense in a 27-10 rout.
"There was some fundamental clinic tape in that game that I am very, very impressed with," Washington coach Jay Gruden said of his defense that limited the Raiders to 32 rushing yards and did not allow them to convert on third down last week (0-for-11). "Now the standards are set very high around here now. The ability to maintain it is going to be critical for us." That improved defense could have a tall task in corralling electrifying rookie Kareem Hunt, who stepped in for the injured Spencer Ware in the preseason and leads the NFL with 401 rushing yards. The third-round selection ran for 172 yards in a 24-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week and is the first rookie since 1981 to record six touchdowns through his first three career games. Kansas City averages a league-leading 162.0 rushing yards, and its 397.3 yards of total offense is third-best in league.
POWER RANKINGS: Washington (-0.5) - Kansas City (5.5) + home field (-3) = Kansas City -8
LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7-point home chalk and that number dropped to 6.5 on Monday before returning to the opening number later in the week. The total hit the betting board 49.5 and has yet to move. View the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Redskins are coming off a dominating home win last Sunday night versus the Raiders, but now Washington must travel and play another national TV night game against an AFC West opponent. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL this season. Washington QB Kirk Cousins missed two days of practice earlier in the week due to the birth of his first child." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (Probable, Shoulder), RB Samaje Perine (Probable, Hand), S D.J. Swearinger (Questionable, Hamstring), DL Jonathan Allen (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Shoulder), S Montae Nicholson (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Josh Norman (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ribs), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (Early Nov, Abdominal).
Kansas City - OL Parker Ehinger (Probable, Knee), OL Eric Fisher (Questionable, Back), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Groin), Ol Cameron Erving (Questionable, Calf), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, Hip), WR De’Anthony Thomas (Questionable, Shoulder).
ABOUT WASHINGTON (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U):Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns last week while boasting a 150.7 passer rating to earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Fresh off his best start of the season, Cousins could also see the returns of two key offensive cogs on Monday as tight end Jordan Reed (ribs, shoulder) and running back Rob Kelley (ribs) each have expressed confidence in getting back to action after a one-game absence. Their respective understudies did quite well in their stead, with veteran tight end Vernon Davis reeling in a touchdown pass and fourth-year back Chris Thompson amassing 188 all-purpose yards and a score in last week's rout. Washington's ground game could pay dividends against a Kansas City defense that is 21st in yards per carry (4.3) and 19th in rushing yards per game (111.7).
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U):Kansas City has recorded at least one touchdown of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games, with 11 scores in total coming in that stretch. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," quarterback Alex Smith said. Second-year wide receiver Tyreek Hill (team-leading 16 receptions, 253 yards) was responsible for six of those touchdowns while Hunt has three. Tight end Travis Kelce, who has one of those scores, is looking to rebound after a one-reception, one-yard performance on the heels of making eight grabs for 103 yards and a touchdown the previous week.
TRENDS:
* Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 Washington's last 6 Monday games.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in October.
* Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Chiefs at a rate of 56 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.
Washington at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
Washington vies for their second straight dominating prime-time performance against an AFC West opponent on Monday night when they face the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Washington handed the Oakland Raiders their first loss of the season under the lights on Sunday night, forcing three turnovers and limiting Derek Carr. and Co. to just 128 total yards of offense in a 27-10 rout.
"There was some fundamental clinic tape in that game that I am very, very impressed with," Washington coach Jay Gruden said of his defense that limited the Raiders to 32 rushing yards and did not allow them to convert on third down last week (0-for-11). "Now the standards are set very high around here now. The ability to maintain it is going to be critical for us." That improved defense could have a tall task in corralling electrifying rookie Kareem Hunt, who stepped in for the injured Spencer Ware in the preseason and leads the NFL with 401 rushing yards. The third-round selection ran for 172 yards in a 24-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week and is the first rookie since 1981 to record six touchdowns through his first three career games. Kansas City averages a league-leading 162.0 rushing yards, and its 397.3 yards of total offense is third-best in league.
POWER RANKINGS: Washington (-0.5) - Kansas City (5.5) + home field (-3) = Kansas City -8
LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7-point home chalk and that number dropped to 6.5 on Monday before returning to the opening number later in the week. The total hit the betting board 49.5 and has yet to move. View the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Redskins are coming off a dominating home win last Sunday night versus the Raiders, but now Washington must travel and play another national TV night game against an AFC West opponent. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL this season. Washington QB Kirk Cousins missed two days of practice earlier in the week due to the birth of his first child." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (Probable, Shoulder), RB Samaje Perine (Probable, Hand), S D.J. Swearinger (Questionable, Hamstring), DL Jonathan Allen (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Shoulder), S Montae Nicholson (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Josh Norman (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ribs), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (Early Nov, Abdominal).
Kansas City - OL Parker Ehinger (Probable, Knee), OL Eric Fisher (Questionable, Back), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Groin), Ol Cameron Erving (Questionable, Calf), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, Hip), WR De’Anthony Thomas (Questionable, Shoulder).
ABOUT WASHINGTON (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U):Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns last week while boasting a 150.7 passer rating to earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Fresh off his best start of the season, Cousins could also see the returns of two key offensive cogs on Monday as tight end Jordan Reed (ribs, shoulder) and running back Rob Kelley (ribs) each have expressed confidence in getting back to action after a one-game absence. Their respective understudies did quite well in their stead, with veteran tight end Vernon Davis reeling in a touchdown pass and fourth-year back Chris Thompson amassing 188 all-purpose yards and a score in last week's rout. Washington's ground game could pay dividends against a Kansas City defense that is 21st in yards per carry (4.3) and 19th in rushing yards per game (111.7).
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U):Kansas City has recorded at least one touchdown of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games, with 11 scores in total coming in that stretch. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," quarterback Alex Smith said. Second-year wide receiver Tyreek Hill (team-leading 16 receptions, 253 yards) was responsible for six of those touchdowns while Hunt has three. Tight end Travis Kelce, who has one of those scores, is looking to rebound after a one-reception, one-yard performance on the heels of making eight grabs for 103 yards and a touchdown the previous week.
TRENDS:
* Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 Washington's last 6 Monday games.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in October.
* Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Chiefs at a rate of 56 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.
Monday's Best Bet
September 29, 2017
Monday Night Football Preview (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
The Washington Redskins get to play under the bright lights of a primetime game for the second week in a row, and just like every other game for Washington this year, they enter as underdogs.
On SNF last week, the Redskins obliterated the Oakland Raiders from start to finish, and now they get to deal with another AFC West foe in the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL entering Week 4, as as touchdown home favorites for MNF, oddsmakers like their chances of pushing that record to 4-0 SU.
Bookmaker.eu Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 49.5
Kansas City hasn't quite looked as good as they did in their opening week win over New England, but they are doing enough to get the job done. Aside from a brief stretch in the 2nd half against Philadelphia in Week 2, KC has reverted back to the dink-and-dunk, ball control team we've come to expect from them the past few years, getting outgained in total yards the last two weeks but still coming out ahead.
Last week against the Chargers, Kansas City really didn't have to open things up offensively as they played with the lead the entire way, but as we've seen from them in years past, that style of play isn't always conducive to the best results, especially against the spread.
Given the manner Washington dominated the Raiders a week ago, the Redskins are likely to garner some support at this +7 number. A fourth straight game as an underdog – with a 2-1 SU record – suggests that the Redskins are either playing above their head right now, or the overall market isn't nearly as high as they should be on this team.
Obviously, scheduling has a bit to do with the spreads they've been saddled with, but I'd lean towards the side of this team continually being undervalued by the masses. I'll let you all make that decision for yourselves though for this game as it's not the side I'm looking to bet – although gun to my head I would take the points.
This total of 49.5 is the number I'm looking to attack as much of the early week action believes this total is well too high. Given the Chiefs unwillingness to stretch the field like they did in Week 1, and the way Washington's defense suffocated Derek Carr and the Raiders offense last week, I can see why that perspective would be popular as a first reaction.
However, I'm not so sure Kansas City won't be forced to open things up in the passing game like they were in the 2nd half of their game against Philly a few weeks back. It's rare that the Chiefs first two home games of 2017 would be against non-conference rivals, but we've already seen Philadelphia and Washington play this year and they are built in a similar fashion. Both have prototypical pocket-passing QB's under center who aren't afraid to take shots to blow the top off a defense.
We have yet to really see that from Washington this year because they've been getting consistent production on the ground, but teams can pass on the Chiefs now that Eric Berry is out, as they've been outgained through the air by 60+ yards the last two weeks. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has enough receivers at his disposal to put on an air show in this game, and if he's got any level of success in doing that, Kansas City will have no choice but to get more aggressive and open things up offensively like they did against the Patriots.
So even with all the grumblings that this total is too high and the 'under' is the way to go, we've got to remember that the Chiefs are actually 2-1 O/U this year against the closing number. They've yet to ever really play from behind since Week 1, but this game against a Redskins team glowing with confidence right now is one where the Chiefs could face a multi-score deficit once again.
Opening things up isn't exactly a bad option for the Chiefs either with the likes of Tyreek Hill and his speed on their roster, and wouldn't you love to see an impromptu head-to-head battle between Hill and Washington's Terrelle Pryor as to who could catch the most deep passes here?
But when it comes down to it, this total is the highest on the board this week (outside of the New Orleans/Miami game in London) for a reason.
We've got two of the fastest receivers in the league here, two QB's who love to take shots downfield when the coaches let them go, and an AFC/NFC game that typically are ones where you want to look to the high side of the number.
Washington is 6-0 O/U in their last six on the road, 7-1 O/U after a win of 14+ points, 6-0 O/U after allowing a sub-90 yard rushing performance, 7-3 O/U in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, and 14-2 O/U after passing for 250+ yards.
It will be Cousins early on who feels like he'll have to take some shots downfield as the underdog – very similar to Alex Smith's mindset and gameplan vs. New England Week 1 – and when he ends up connecting on a few and putting up points, Andy Reid and the rest of KC's offensive coaching staff will have no choice but to turn their guys loose.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet: Over 49.5 points
September 29, 2017
Monday Night Football Preview (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
The Washington Redskins get to play under the bright lights of a primetime game for the second week in a row, and just like every other game for Washington this year, they enter as underdogs.
On SNF last week, the Redskins obliterated the Oakland Raiders from start to finish, and now they get to deal with another AFC West foe in the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL entering Week 4, as as touchdown home favorites for MNF, oddsmakers like their chances of pushing that record to 4-0 SU.
Bookmaker.eu Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 49.5
Kansas City hasn't quite looked as good as they did in their opening week win over New England, but they are doing enough to get the job done. Aside from a brief stretch in the 2nd half against Philadelphia in Week 2, KC has reverted back to the dink-and-dunk, ball control team we've come to expect from them the past few years, getting outgained in total yards the last two weeks but still coming out ahead.
Last week against the Chargers, Kansas City really didn't have to open things up offensively as they played with the lead the entire way, but as we've seen from them in years past, that style of play isn't always conducive to the best results, especially against the spread.
Given the manner Washington dominated the Raiders a week ago, the Redskins are likely to garner some support at this +7 number. A fourth straight game as an underdog – with a 2-1 SU record – suggests that the Redskins are either playing above their head right now, or the overall market isn't nearly as high as they should be on this team.
Obviously, scheduling has a bit to do with the spreads they've been saddled with, but I'd lean towards the side of this team continually being undervalued by the masses. I'll let you all make that decision for yourselves though for this game as it's not the side I'm looking to bet – although gun to my head I would take the points.
This total of 49.5 is the number I'm looking to attack as much of the early week action believes this total is well too high. Given the Chiefs unwillingness to stretch the field like they did in Week 1, and the way Washington's defense suffocated Derek Carr and the Raiders offense last week, I can see why that perspective would be popular as a first reaction.
However, I'm not so sure Kansas City won't be forced to open things up in the passing game like they were in the 2nd half of their game against Philly a few weeks back. It's rare that the Chiefs first two home games of 2017 would be against non-conference rivals, but we've already seen Philadelphia and Washington play this year and they are built in a similar fashion. Both have prototypical pocket-passing QB's under center who aren't afraid to take shots to blow the top off a defense.
We have yet to really see that from Washington this year because they've been getting consistent production on the ground, but teams can pass on the Chiefs now that Eric Berry is out, as they've been outgained through the air by 60+ yards the last two weeks. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has enough receivers at his disposal to put on an air show in this game, and if he's got any level of success in doing that, Kansas City will have no choice but to get more aggressive and open things up offensively like they did against the Patriots.
So even with all the grumblings that this total is too high and the 'under' is the way to go, we've got to remember that the Chiefs are actually 2-1 O/U this year against the closing number. They've yet to ever really play from behind since Week 1, but this game against a Redskins team glowing with confidence right now is one where the Chiefs could face a multi-score deficit once again.
Opening things up isn't exactly a bad option for the Chiefs either with the likes of Tyreek Hill and his speed on their roster, and wouldn't you love to see an impromptu head-to-head battle between Hill and Washington's Terrelle Pryor as to who could catch the most deep passes here?
But when it comes down to it, this total is the highest on the board this week (outside of the New Orleans/Miami game in London) for a reason.
We've got two of the fastest receivers in the league here, two QB's who love to take shots downfield when the coaches let them go, and an AFC/NFC game that typically are ones where you want to look to the high side of the number.
Washington is 6-0 O/U in their last six on the road, 7-1 O/U after a win of 14+ points, 6-0 O/U after allowing a sub-90 yard rushing performance, 7-3 O/U in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, and 14-2 O/U after passing for 250+ yards.
It will be Cousins early on who feels like he'll have to take some shots downfield as the underdog – very similar to Alex Smith's mindset and gameplan vs. New England Week 1 – and when he ends up connecting on a few and putting up points, Andy Reid and the rest of KC's offensive coaching staff will have no choice but to turn their guys loose.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet: Over 49.5 points
John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information
Props for MNF
85.5 rushing yards by Kareem Hunt (O/U -110)
Forget Offensive Rookie of the Year -- Kareem Hunt is aiming higher. The Chiefs running back and fantasy football darling has 538 scrimmage yards, more than every player's first three career games outside of Billy Sims. Hunt's simply been on fire. He's averaged 11.6 yards per rush outside the tackles and an absurd 7.9 yards per rush inside the tackles. He's a big play waiting to happen, with 12 rushes of 10-plus yards (including at least one outside the right and left tackle, towards the right and left guard and up the middle), as well as five rushes of at least 20 yards (both lead the NFL). Why is all of this important? There isn't a particular gap or lineman he needs to run toward to be effective, making it very difficult for the Redskins to stop him. Washington's rush defense has been solid this year, averaging 3.2 yards per rush (seventh in the league), including the third-ranked unit in yards before contact per rush. But they're still returning four of seven starters from a rush defense that ranked 27th in yards per rush last year. Todd Gurley showed that this front was exploitable, with 88 yards on 16 rushes. LeGarrette Blount (14 rushes for 46 yards) isn't half the running back that Hunt is, and Marshawn Lynch received a total of six rushes in a game in which his team trailed 14-0 at halftime and 21-0 in the third quarter, forcing a pass-heavy game plan. The Chiefs won't be shy about running the ball.
The play: Over
242.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Alex Smith has been exactly what the Chiefs have needed. He's thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception, completed an NFL-best 77 percent of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt (thanks, Hunt and Tyreek Hill). Smith went into Foxborough and carved up the Patriots in Week 1, throwing for 368 yards and four touchdowns on national television. But has Smith really been that different outside of that game, one against a defense that might be far worse than anticipated? Since that game, he has completed just over three-quarters of his passes for 203 yards per game with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. From 2013-16 with Andy Reid, he's completed 65 percent of his passes for 222 yards per game and a TD-INT ratio of 2.7. Need more proof? Check the deep passing. He's 6-of-12 on throws at least 15 yards downfield over three games (2.0 completions per game). The rest of his career? He has 2.1 completions per game with a 45 percent completion percentage on those throws. He's been basically the same Alex Smith as he was over the rest of his career with Andy Reid, and Smith has thrown for less than 243 yards in 37 of 64 career games with Reid. Given Washington's 210 pass yards per game average (and holding Derek Carr to 118 yards last week), the under seems slightly more likely.
The play: Under
Props for MNF
85.5 rushing yards by Kareem Hunt (O/U -110)
Forget Offensive Rookie of the Year -- Kareem Hunt is aiming higher. The Chiefs running back and fantasy football darling has 538 scrimmage yards, more than every player's first three career games outside of Billy Sims. Hunt's simply been on fire. He's averaged 11.6 yards per rush outside the tackles and an absurd 7.9 yards per rush inside the tackles. He's a big play waiting to happen, with 12 rushes of 10-plus yards (including at least one outside the right and left tackle, towards the right and left guard and up the middle), as well as five rushes of at least 20 yards (both lead the NFL). Why is all of this important? There isn't a particular gap or lineman he needs to run toward to be effective, making it very difficult for the Redskins to stop him. Washington's rush defense has been solid this year, averaging 3.2 yards per rush (seventh in the league), including the third-ranked unit in yards before contact per rush. But they're still returning four of seven starters from a rush defense that ranked 27th in yards per rush last year. Todd Gurley showed that this front was exploitable, with 88 yards on 16 rushes. LeGarrette Blount (14 rushes for 46 yards) isn't half the running back that Hunt is, and Marshawn Lynch received a total of six rushes in a game in which his team trailed 14-0 at halftime and 21-0 in the third quarter, forcing a pass-heavy game plan. The Chiefs won't be shy about running the ball.
The play: Over
242.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Alex Smith has been exactly what the Chiefs have needed. He's thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception, completed an NFL-best 77 percent of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt (thanks, Hunt and Tyreek Hill). Smith went into Foxborough and carved up the Patriots in Week 1, throwing for 368 yards and four touchdowns on national television. But has Smith really been that different outside of that game, one against a defense that might be far worse than anticipated? Since that game, he has completed just over three-quarters of his passes for 203 yards per game with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. From 2013-16 with Andy Reid, he's completed 65 percent of his passes for 222 yards per game and a TD-INT ratio of 2.7. Need more proof? Check the deep passing. He's 6-of-12 on throws at least 15 yards downfield over three games (2.0 completions per game). The rest of his career? He has 2.1 completions per game with a 45 percent completion percentage on those throws. He's been basically the same Alex Smith as he was over the rest of his career with Andy Reid, and Smith has thrown for less than 243 yards in 37 of 64 career games with Reid. Given Washington's 210 pass yards per game average (and holding Derek Carr to 118 yards last week), the under seems slightly more likely.
The play: Under
